Trendtrading
Global Markets Brace for More Volatility Amid Israel ConflictUSD/JPY begins the week fairly neutral to overbought inside a range from short 150.51 to long 148.49. For the 3rd week running , GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY trade oversold. GBP/JPY's vital break at 180.52 trades 99 pips from the 181.51 close while EUR/JPY trades 107 pips from the vital break at 156.01. Neither EUR/JPY nor GBP/JPY is expected to cleanly break this week.
Strong Bullish Trend for High Returns!The USDJPY is currently experiencing an upward trend. To capitalize on this trend, I plan to wait for a chance to buy at the Fib-3 Bat Pattern completion on the 1-hourly chart at 149.09.
However, it's important to note that both the 4-hour and daily charts show a Bearish Harmonic Pattern that completes at a similar level of 150.41. As such, it would be best to wait for a candlestick pattern completion before considering a counter-trend trade.
GOLDOZ: The increase shows no signs of stoppingThe global gold market continues to benefit from safe-haven demand amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, which shows no signs of ending. This precious metal has seen modest yet resilient gains, despite the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicating their commitment to maintaining a "higher for longer" monetary policy stance. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the policymaking body of the Fed, remains inclined to support interest rate hikes until they are confident that inflation is returning to the 2% target.
The gold market has been witnessing a steady rise after bouncing back from its seven-month low last week. While there are still some risks in the market, analysts from the World Gold Council (WGC) suggest that the selling pressure seen last month might present a buying opportunity for investors.
EURUSD: Predictions for Friday the 13th💡EUR/USD rise 0.1% to 1.0537, then fell sharply earlier, with multiple data releases appearing in the eurozone. France's CPI rose 4.9% year-on-year in September, while Spain's consumer prices rose 3.5%, both still above the European Central Bank's medium-term target.
💡ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau reiterated his view on Thursday that the central bank should keep its benchmark interest rate at its current level - the highest in its 25-year history - as long as That is necessary to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target.
XAUUSD: Wait for the right buy opportunityBar D1 yesterday increased sharply, in line with experts' comments that the gold price will continue to increase strongly by at least 188x - 1900. Largely due to expectations that the Fed will not raise interest rates in 2023 and has a roadmap to cut interest rates in 2024. Currently, 1877 is the MA20 resistance of D1, so there may be more or less a profit-taking price reaction from investors, so the price may decrease slightly.
. A closer look at H1 shows that yesterday the price surpassed 1865 but has not yet returned to the back test. This morning's Asian session continued to create a new ATH level compared to yesterday. Easily observe an uptrend channel at H1 with a good buying zone of 186x, everyone should pay attention
EURUSD: Analysis October 12Consumer expectations for inflation in the Eurozone increased slightly in August, reinforcing the view that it is too early for the European Central Bank to declare victory in the fight against inflation. The monthly survey published by the ECB shows that consumer expectations for inflation in the next 12 months have risen from 3.4% to 3.5%, and expectations for inflation over the next three years have increased from 2.4% to 2.5%. In terms of economic outlook, consumers have become more pessimistic, expecting the economy to shrink by 0.8% in the next 12 months, compared to the previous forecast of 0.7%.
We can see that the EUR/USD is trading around the 48-hour moving average on the H4 chart. Additionally, the MACD histogram and the double-line appear to be contracting, indicating the potential for a downturn. However, in the short term, investors are awaiting US CPI data for September, and if the data comes in below expectations, the EUR/USD exchange rate may rise due to a weaker US dollar.
GBPUSD: Opportunity to explodeThe dollar traded virtually unchanged at the start of the European session Wednesday, consolidating ahead of the release of manufacturing inflation data and the Fed's latest policy meeting minutes.
The USD has fallen quite a bit in recent sessions, despite growing political instability due to the conflict that broke out over the weekend between Hamas and Israel, as dovish comments from some Federal Reserve officials The state has raised hopes that the Fed is nearing the end of its interest rate hike cycle.
USDCHF: Continuing downtrendToday, the USD/CHF currency pair looks to rest at monthly lows, settling around 0.8920 entering the European session on Friday, after recording an impressive recovery to convince traders sales yesterday.
The Swiss franc (CHF) fell the most in a week as it broke through key technical support levels, convincing investors to favor extended lows. What raises hopes for USD/CHF sellers are the negative signals.
While it is impossible to accurately predict the future of financial markets, it seems that the USD/CHF currency pair is under pressure from bearish investors. We will continue to monitor developments going forward to see whether sellers can maintain patience at this low level.
Brent Oil: Ready for a Rally?Brent oil prices have skyrocketed in recent months, from about $70 a barrel in June to more than $90 a barrel today. This is due to a number of factors, including:
Fundamentals
Tight supply:
OPEC+ has cut output to support prices and there are concerns about supply disruptions from Russia due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Strong demand:
Global oil demand is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and is expected to continue growing in the coming months.
Weaker US Dollar:
A weaker US dollar makes oil more affordable for buyers using other currencies.
Technicals
30-minute chart: Brent oil is currently trading in a bullish trend channel on the 30-minute chart. The RSI indicator is above 50, suggesting that buyers are in control. The MACD indicator is also bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram turning positive.
4-hour chart: On the 4-hour chart, Brent oil is also trading in a bullish trend channel. The RSI indicator is above 50, and the MACD indicator is bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram turning positive.
Daily chart: On the daily chart, Brent oil is trading above its 200-day moving average, which is a bullish signal. The RSI indicator is above 50, and the MACD indicator is bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram turning positive.
Conclusion
Overall, the fundamental and technical outlook for Brent oil is bullish. Prices could continue to rise in the coming days and weeks, especially if there are any supply disruptions or if the US dollar continues to weaken.
Dr copper potential more downside moveHello traders, lets take a look at copper which testing an important resistance area and see what can possibly happen and what are the consequences of possible bearish move in other markets like us equities.
first lets talk technical, price overall bearish Daily move in copper formed a standard #head_and_shoulder pattern in form of consolidation in downtrend move and as we know this chart pattern in the middle of a move showing continuation. As it can be seen price formed clear H&S pattern and now forming possible LH at key resistance area below Daily EMA and at the 4H timeframe 200 EMA. more importantly price failed to close above 3.80$ in the past 3 days.
Also we know that copper as one of the most important commodities is very sensitive on economic data, and since central banks are in raising interest rate campaign in order to take control inflation this can be interpreted as lower economic growth and as a result les demand for industrial commodities like copper which can bring prices lower.
so now obvious chart pattern and a valid downtrend, price testing important resistance area and failed to break above it and more importantly we have fundamental aspect inline with technical analysis which all together gives good odd to find a trigger to short.
A Balanced Trading OpportunityEURUSD has a last level of support on the Weekly Chart at 1.0544, and closing below 1.0446 would violate the Bullish Trend.
If we're looking for a buying opportunity, the 1hourly chart support level at 1.0558 could be a good fit. Alternatively, we could wait for the market to sit on the Trendline before heading in for a buying opportunity.
On the other hand, if we're looking to short, we could either sell the market at the Key Resistance Level on the 4-hourly chart at 1.0631 or a Bearish Shark Pattern completion at 1.0722.
Personally, I'm more inclined to look for a buying opportunity. What do you think?
Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I look forward to hearing your thoughts.
Limbo in December Live Cattle December Live Cattle has been in a virtual free-fall since making contract highs back on September 19th. We’ve sold off nearly $7 since scoring the new high. To say it’s been a remarkable year for live cattle futures would be an understatement - we’ve made all time highs, and bucked bearish seasonal tendencies along the way. The strength observed across the cattle contracts is well substantiated by national cash-trade transactions, and cattle on feed numbers - two of the most important components of fundamental analysis in the cattle markets.
Where will we find support?
If you look at the retracement from the contract’s low to the contract’s high, we are quickly approaching the 23.6% retracement level at 183.100. This could be viewed as our first major pocket of support, as it is both a significant fibonacci retracement level, but also a point where we saw prices pace through continuously between July and September.
Trendline Support
In the case that the 23.6% retracement does not hold, another key area to consider is long-held trendline support. Now, that could be a ways away from where we’re at. If price continues to free-fall, trendline support should come into play around 181. But, if prices stabilize and begin moving sideways over the course of the coming weeks, both trendline support and the 23.6% retracement level will converge. This convergence serves a “cluster” of evidence that provides more credibility to the support pocket.
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*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
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[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(05/10/2023) Today will be gap up opening in BANKNIFTY . After opening if banknifty sustain above 44050 level then possible upside rally of 400-500 points upto 44450 Level. And this rally can extend for another 400 points if it gives breakout of 44550 level. Any Major downside only expected in case banknifty starts trading below 43950 level.
Too much supportWe could the return of the DOW. Price is just landing on a strong support zone. Next week we could see a big, fat green candle (engulfing) and heading higher from there. I may buy a few calls on Friday, I want to see if the support holds. BTW I pulled up a 2 weeks chart for better visualization but it reads the same in a weekly chart.
spyThe next real support level on MY charts is that $417 range. However, there is an upward trendline that the entire sp500 spx is just now hitting that goes back to the lowest wick of the bottom that started this Bullish uptrend move months ago. We may very well bounce short term from here and go back retest the drop if the spx can hold the line. In the bigger picture im using pops to load puts for another move down this month before we think about a bigger move back up to test the R's.
GBPUSD | More Than a 1:1 Reward To Risk TradeThis is bearish potential on GBPUSD
12 hour timeframe is bearish. A new high was made on today.
Price can go lower overnight. If it does
we can adjust the take profit.
Stop loss and entry will stay the same.
Stop loss and entry are noted as
Entry: 1.21813
Stop loss: 1.22719
TP: Open but preferably the lower low after price pulls back and beyond.
You can move stop loss higher if you prefer more room for the trade to breathe.
Belief: For God did not give me a spirit of fear, but of power, love, and a sound mind.
Rather this trade wins or losses, I pray God for the opportunity.
Hey! Like the analysis. Much Love. ❤️