GBP USD Complete Analysis - Top Down - Structure wiseHi guys,
Below im going to go through a detailed breakdown of GBP USD for longer term swing trades and what i am looking for to confirm any trade direction.
Firstly i want to start of at the monthly time frame:
Below is a photo of the monthly timeframe clearly showing bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows:
So our monthly bias is bearish, and the last rally could just be a pull back to continue lower, However, considering that the low that was created in September of 2022 created a new all time low for the pair, i am skeptical that this pair will go any lower. Furthermore, looking at the price action from the low of 2016 till date we can see that price has been pretty much range bound, which also looks to be a Wyckoff accumulation schematic. However this will only be confirmed once price breaks above the last high marked up in the above drawing, as this will confirm bullish strength and a break of long term structure to the upside.
Conclusion of monthly time frame analysis: Trend is bearish but it seems to be at it's turning point. So we need to see confirmations of lower timeframe to determine weather price will continue to drop or go higher.
Now lets look at the daily time frame:
Looking on the daily time frame we clearly see bullish structure, with higher lows and higher highs, however remember this entire structure could just be a pull back of the monthly time frame's bearish structure.
So when will this move be considered a pull back of the bearish monthly structure? if price manages to break the recent low marked up in the above drawing at around 1.204. this will indicate a break of the bullish structure on the daily timeframe and a shift from bullish to bearish structure.
As long as price is above this low, 1.204 then the structure will remain to be bullish.
So to recap, on the monthly we are overall bearish but we are expecting that we are at the end of the bearish move, but we need to see the lower timeframes confirm if price wants to go higher. As of now, the daily structure is bullish and the structure is holding. So we can look for buys at this point.
Lets go down to the 4 hr time frame:
On the 4 hr timeframe we can see the clear bearish structure. but remember that as long as price is above the 1.204 mark then we are bullish on the daily, so this bearish structure gives us opportunities to enter long positions at lower prices. But in order to confirm that this bearish structure will not just continue to drop and shatter the 1.204 mark, then we need to see a shift in structure from bearish to bullish, which will occur when price breaks above the high in the above photo at around 1.28. This will indicate the end of this bearish pull back and a change in structure from bearish to bullish, so then we will have bullish structure on the 4 hr and the daily time frames. Entries however will be taken on the 15 or 5 min timeframes, when the time comes. For now i need to wait and see if the 4 hr structure will turn bullish or not.
Also another note on the 4 hr timeframe, structure aside, we can see some signs of accumulation where we have just done a quick sweep and stop hunt of the lows which also indicate that bullish strength may enter soon. As shown in the below photo:
So overall i am bullish on GBP USD but i need the 4 hr time frame to confirm my bias by breaking structure upwards and clearing the 1.28 mark. At that point we will scope in on the 15 min for entries on pull backs.
The other scenario is if price continues to be bearish, and breaks the low on the daily time frame at around 1.204, this will completely shift our bias from bullish to bearish, and will look for sell positions on pull backs.
So for now, we wait. Wait for price to show you what it wants to do, does it want to respect the bullish structure on the daily time frame? or does it want to shift the structure from bullish to bearish? this will be the deciding factor here. And based on that we can analyze further and look to take some good swing trades.
If you made it this far, i thank you for your time and patience, and i hope this helped you in some way.
Thank you, and happy new year to everyone!!
