Trendtrading
EURUSD: Analysis October 12Consumer expectations for inflation in the Eurozone increased slightly in August, reinforcing the view that it is too early for the European Central Bank to declare victory in the fight against inflation. The monthly survey published by the ECB shows that consumer expectations for inflation in the next 12 months have risen from 3.4% to 3.5%, and expectations for inflation over the next three years have increased from 2.4% to 2.5%. In terms of economic outlook, consumers have become more pessimistic, expecting the economy to shrink by 0.8% in the next 12 months, compared to the previous forecast of 0.7%.
We can see that the EUR/USD is trading around the 48-hour moving average on the H4 chart. Additionally, the MACD histogram and the double-line appear to be contracting, indicating the potential for a downturn. However, in the short term, investors are awaiting US CPI data for September, and if the data comes in below expectations, the EUR/USD exchange rate may rise due to a weaker US dollar.
GBPUSD: Opportunity to explodeThe dollar traded virtually unchanged at the start of the European session Wednesday, consolidating ahead of the release of manufacturing inflation data and the Fed's latest policy meeting minutes.
The USD has fallen quite a bit in recent sessions, despite growing political instability due to the conflict that broke out over the weekend between Hamas and Israel, as dovish comments from some Federal Reserve officials The state has raised hopes that the Fed is nearing the end of its interest rate hike cycle.
USDCHF: Continuing downtrendToday, the USD/CHF currency pair looks to rest at monthly lows, settling around 0.8920 entering the European session on Friday, after recording an impressive recovery to convince traders sales yesterday.
The Swiss franc (CHF) fell the most in a week as it broke through key technical support levels, convincing investors to favor extended lows. What raises hopes for USD/CHF sellers are the negative signals.
While it is impossible to accurately predict the future of financial markets, it seems that the USD/CHF currency pair is under pressure from bearish investors. We will continue to monitor developments going forward to see whether sellers can maintain patience at this low level.
Brent Oil: Ready for a Rally?Brent oil prices have skyrocketed in recent months, from about $70 a barrel in June to more than $90 a barrel today. This is due to a number of factors, including:
Fundamentals
Tight supply:
OPEC+ has cut output to support prices and there are concerns about supply disruptions from Russia due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Strong demand:
Global oil demand is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and is expected to continue growing in the coming months.
Weaker US Dollar:
A weaker US dollar makes oil more affordable for buyers using other currencies.
Technicals
30-minute chart: Brent oil is currently trading in a bullish trend channel on the 30-minute chart. The RSI indicator is above 50, suggesting that buyers are in control. The MACD indicator is also bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram turning positive.
4-hour chart: On the 4-hour chart, Brent oil is also trading in a bullish trend channel. The RSI indicator is above 50, and the MACD indicator is bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram turning positive.
Daily chart: On the daily chart, Brent oil is trading above its 200-day moving average, which is a bullish signal. The RSI indicator is above 50, and the MACD indicator is bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram turning positive.
Conclusion
Overall, the fundamental and technical outlook for Brent oil is bullish. Prices could continue to rise in the coming days and weeks, especially if there are any supply disruptions or if the US dollar continues to weaken.
Dr copper potential more downside moveHello traders, lets take a look at copper which testing an important resistance area and see what can possibly happen and what are the consequences of possible bearish move in other markets like us equities.
first lets talk technical, price overall bearish Daily move in copper formed a standard #head_and_shoulder pattern in form of consolidation in downtrend move and as we know this chart pattern in the middle of a move showing continuation. As it can be seen price formed clear H&S pattern and now forming possible LH at key resistance area below Daily EMA and at the 4H timeframe 200 EMA. more importantly price failed to close above 3.80$ in the past 3 days.
Also we know that copper as one of the most important commodities is very sensitive on economic data, and since central banks are in raising interest rate campaign in order to take control inflation this can be interpreted as lower economic growth and as a result les demand for industrial commodities like copper which can bring prices lower.
so now obvious chart pattern and a valid downtrend, price testing important resistance area and failed to break above it and more importantly we have fundamental aspect inline with technical analysis which all together gives good odd to find a trigger to short.
A Balanced Trading OpportunityEURUSD has a last level of support on the Weekly Chart at 1.0544, and closing below 1.0446 would violate the Bullish Trend.
If we're looking for a buying opportunity, the 1hourly chart support level at 1.0558 could be a good fit. Alternatively, we could wait for the market to sit on the Trendline before heading in for a buying opportunity.
On the other hand, if we're looking to short, we could either sell the market at the Key Resistance Level on the 4-hourly chart at 1.0631 or a Bearish Shark Pattern completion at 1.0722.
Personally, I'm more inclined to look for a buying opportunity. What do you think?
Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I look forward to hearing your thoughts.
Limbo in December Live Cattle December Live Cattle has been in a virtual free-fall since making contract highs back on September 19th. We’ve sold off nearly $7 since scoring the new high. To say it’s been a remarkable year for live cattle futures would be an understatement - we’ve made all time highs, and bucked bearish seasonal tendencies along the way. The strength observed across the cattle contracts is well substantiated by national cash-trade transactions, and cattle on feed numbers - two of the most important components of fundamental analysis in the cattle markets.
Where will we find support?
If you look at the retracement from the contract’s low to the contract’s high, we are quickly approaching the 23.6% retracement level at 183.100. This could be viewed as our first major pocket of support, as it is both a significant fibonacci retracement level, but also a point where we saw prices pace through continuously between July and September.
Trendline Support
In the case that the 23.6% retracement does not hold, another key area to consider is long-held trendline support. Now, that could be a ways away from where we’re at. If price continues to free-fall, trendline support should come into play around 181. But, if prices stabilize and begin moving sideways over the course of the coming weeks, both trendline support and the 23.6% retracement level will converge. This convergence serves a “cluster” of evidence that provides more credibility to the support pocket.
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[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(05/10/2023) Today will be gap up opening in BANKNIFTY . After opening if banknifty sustain above 44050 level then possible upside rally of 400-500 points upto 44450 Level. And this rally can extend for another 400 points if it gives breakout of 44550 level. Any Major downside only expected in case banknifty starts trading below 43950 level.
Too much supportWe could the return of the DOW. Price is just landing on a strong support zone. Next week we could see a big, fat green candle (engulfing) and heading higher from there. I may buy a few calls on Friday, I want to see if the support holds. BTW I pulled up a 2 weeks chart for better visualization but it reads the same in a weekly chart.
spyThe next real support level on MY charts is that $417 range. However, there is an upward trendline that the entire sp500 spx is just now hitting that goes back to the lowest wick of the bottom that started this Bullish uptrend move months ago. We may very well bounce short term from here and go back retest the drop if the spx can hold the line. In the bigger picture im using pops to load puts for another move down this month before we think about a bigger move back up to test the R's.
GBPUSD | More Than a 1:1 Reward To Risk TradeThis is bearish potential on GBPUSD
12 hour timeframe is bearish. A new high was made on today.
Price can go lower overnight. If it does
we can adjust the take profit.
Stop loss and entry will stay the same.
Stop loss and entry are noted as
Entry: 1.21813
Stop loss: 1.22719
TP: Open but preferably the lower low after price pulls back and beyond.
You can move stop loss higher if you prefer more room for the trade to breathe.
Belief: For God did not give me a spirit of fear, but of power, love, and a sound mind.
Rather this trade wins or losses, I pray God for the opportunity.
Hey! Like the analysis. Much Love. ❤️
NZDCAD's 2:1 Reward To Risk Trade IdeaThis is bullish potential on NZDCAD.
12 hour timeframe is bullish. A new high was made on Friday.
Price can go higher overnight. If it does
we can adjust the take profit.
Stop loss and entry will stay the same.
Stop loss and entry are noted as
Entry: 0.80362
Stop loss: 079827
TP: back up to highs unless price creates new fluctuation in price action.
You can move stop loss lower if you prefer more room for the trade to breathe.
Belief: For God did not give me a spirit of fear, but of power, love, and a sound mind.
Rather this trade wins or losses, I pray God for the opportunity.
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Beware of Shorting OpportunitiesAs we continue to analyze the market, it's become clear that avoiding bad trades is just as important as finding the next big one. This is particularly true when looking at the bottom 2 charts of NZDJPY's daily and weekly charts.
On the daily chart, we can see that the Bearish Deep Gartley Pattern is over-extended, meaning it took longer than expected to complete the trading setup. As a result, the market may not respect the level and could bash through the resistance level.
On the weekly chart, we also see that the Bearish Shark Pattern retest, doesn't give us an RSI divergence. Once again, the market may extend further before any significant retest.
Despite all of this, if you're still interested in shorting the market, do it with caution.
On the 4-hourly chart, waiting for the market to retest at the 90.03 level could attract price-action traders to jump in for the counter-trend move.
Personally, I prefer to head in for a buying opportunity at the key support level of 89.05. My initial stop-loss would be at 88.67 (-38 pips) or approximately -380USD/lot. The first target is seen at 90.08 (+103pips) or approximately 1,030USD/lot.
Remember, it's important to plan your own trade and never follow any trader blindly. Let's continue to monitor the market closely and make informed decisions.
Awaiting Shorting OpportunityThis week, I have been closely monitoring the movement on GBPUSD. While there are similarities to EURUSD, I am still waiting for an aggressive shorting opportunity. As of now, there is no iconic trading setup available, so I am patiently waiting for a retest at the key resistance level of 1.2368 before making any moves.
For more conservative traders, it may be wise to wait for a double top with an RSI divergence as an additional confirmation before engaging in the trade. The initial stop is at 1.2462 (-94 pips) or 940 USD/lot, while the first target is seen at 1.2124 or 2,440 USD/lot.
I cannot stress enough the importance of planning your trade and not blindly following anyone else. Keep this in mind when considering your options.
Potential Bullish ContinuationAs we analyze the charts, we can see that the highest timeframe is affecting our overall analysis. If we look at the weekly chart, we can see that there is a bullish run. This means that we should look for a buying opportunity on the 1-hourly chart. Our preferred entry price is at 1.0550, with an initial stop-loss at 1.0521 (-29pips) or -290usd/lot. Our target 1 is at 1.0614 (+64pips) or 640usd/lot.
However, if we see that the daily chart is our highest timeframe, we should look for a shorting opportunity as a trend trading opportunity. The possible selling price is at 1.0631, with the initial stop-loss at 1.0663 (-32pips) or -320usd/lot. Our Target 1 is at 1.0502 (+129pips) or 1,290usd/lot.
It's important that we do our own independent analysis and plan our own trade. By doing this, we can take advantage of the opportunities presented to us and make the best decisions for our trade.
Nifty 50: October week 1 Weekly Market SetupWeekly Review
Nifty 50 declined by 0.18% last week to close at 19,638. The major meltdown was seen on last Thursday (weekly expiry) where the index lost close to 200 points where it touched its key support around 19,495 as per our expectations too. While broadly market is now showing mixed sentiments and is largely looking to be a stock specific trading only.
Week Ahead:,
On Daily charts, technical indicators shows bulls giving a good fght to pick up pace for what all the gains were lost in previous few weeks. Momentum is starting to build u but higher levels at 19,740-795 remains key hurdle to continue the larger rally. On the lower side 19495, 19438 and 19376 are important support to hold on.
From levels perspective, I believe it has been quite a downfall and we should see some uptick or a sideway markets now but to say further the outlook would completely depend on how Q2 numbers starts rolling out and what holds post RBI’s MPC meeting results.
*Disclaimer*: I am not SEBI registered analyst and hence the above market outlook is for only educational study and research purposes only. In no way do I endorse this opinion to take a trade or for any investments in markets in any form by any Participant. Be a responsible investor with proper risk management and keep learning as a true focus.
XAUUSD OAK Spider Trend Analysis and 2023 Closing ForecastXAUUSD Gold trend lines, support and resistance level slings over a 4H fibonacci grid analysis preceding my price forecast strokes for the last quarter. A year away from my best trading day so far (23.09.29), I think I should have been posting my analysis way earlier.
With great power comes great responsibility. Trade responsibly.
OAK
#USDCAD looking to sellPrice bearish impulsive move broke Daily bullish market structure to the downside so we believe that our current trend in USDCAD is to the downside.
After forming a low price is testing a broken previous support area which now will act probably as a resistance.
For other bearish confluences we can see price is just below 4H timeframe EMA and close to 1h timeframe EMA.
#USDCAD another selling opportunityIf you remember we already took one successful short trade from the previous red arrow and although we were expecting price to move further down and create new low for higher timeframe this didn't happen.
As a result price went up and giving us another selling opportunity.
As you can see in the picture price is at important static resistance area and just below 4H and 1H EMA which both acting as resistance.
But the thing that we should be consider before taking position from the area that price currently is sitting on is the possibility that if price wants to come and take liquidity from the local top that formed earlier and since there is a lot of stop losses could be a good target for price to reach and take out liquidity.
So if you want to take position from this area keep in mind the possibility of price moving higher to take out loquidity.
GBP/USD - A BEARISH OUTLOOK
GBP/USD Fundamental and Technical Analysis for 28 September 2023
Subtitle: GBP/USD remains under pressure as the US dollar continues to strengthen against a basket of major currencies. Technical indicators on the 30-minute, 4-hour, and daily charts suggest that further downside is likely in the near term.
Fundamental Analysis:
The British pound has been under pressure in recent weeks due to a number of factors, including:
Rising inflation: Inflation in the UK hit a 40-year high of 10.1% in July 2023, putting further pressure on household budgets and businesses.
Weak economic growth: The UK economy is expected to grow by just 0.5% in 2023, according to the IMF, which is the slowest pace of growth among the G7 economies.
Political uncertainty: The UK is currently facing a number of political challenges, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, and the ongoing negotiations over the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Technical Analysis:
On the 30-minute chart, GBP/USD is trading below both its 50- and 100-period moving averages, which is a bearish sign. The RSI indicator is also below 50, suggesting that the pair is oversold. However, the MACD indicator is crossing below its signal line, which is a bearish signal.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD is trading below a descending trendline. The pair is also below its 50- and 100-period moving averages. The RSI indicator is below 50, and the MACD indicator is crossing below its signal line.
On the daily chart, GBP/USD is trading below a descending triangle pattern. The pair is also below its 50- and 100-period moving averages. The RSI indicator is below 50, and the MACD indicator is crossing below its signal line.
Overall, the technical indicators on all three timeframes suggest that GBP/USD is likely to continue to decline in the near term.
Conclusion:
GBP/USD remains under pressure due to a number of fundamental factors, and the technical indicators on all three timeframes suggest that further downside is likely in the near term. Traders should be cautious going long on GBP/USD at this time.
I hope this post is helpful.
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