US 10Y TREASURY: waiting FOMC meeting As the FOMC meeting is approaching and more data on inflation pressures and the economy are released, the Treasury bond market is increasing its volatility. Current question which is in the spotlight is whether the Fed will hike rates by 25 bps or it will skip June and leave rate increase for July`s meeting. Current market consensus is that rates will remain at the same level during June. Although 10Y Treasuries started the week around 3.6%, the yield was soon increased to the level of 3.8%. It was sort of testing this level for one more time, if it can hold. Still, yields are ending the week around 3.7%.
The week ahead might bring some volatility back to the markets, in case the Fed still increases rates, contrary market expectations. Certainly, inflation figures will be posted a day before the FOMC meeting, and any surprises on this side might also bring some volatility back. As per current charts, since 3.8% was tested, the market could easily slip back to the level of 3.6%, which might occur during the week ahead. At this moment, there is no indication that 3.8% might be breached to the upside. However, it should be noted, that a potential breach of 3.8% level to the upside, would certainly lead the market to the level of 4% yield for 10Y Treasuries.
Tresury
Forecast US10YGood day everyone! Don't forget to put your thumbs up and write your comment if you like the idea
The bar for 10-year Treasuries has been broken.
The 10-year Treasury yield has broken the trend at 3.8%. In fact, this opens the way for growth to indicators in the range of 4.5-4.6%.
There are elections in November, and we need to show at least some effect from measures to combat inflation. This is the main task. Well, what's next? Let's assume that we managed to somehow stabilize the situation with inflation (actually or by manipulating statistics is another question) by achieving a target rate of around 4.5%. Let the economy go into recession. And, after some time, start the cycle of lowering the rate again and pulling the economy out of recession? The current rates were in 2008, and the values were 4.5% in 2007. And the Fed had enough of this "reserve" in reducing the rate for almost 14 years.
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Question. Difference between TVC:US03MY and FRED:DGS3MO.What is the difference between TVC:US03MY and FRED:DGS3MO? I see that they have different sources, but I don’t know what TVC is. Also, their meanings are quite different at some time. At the time of publication this post, these are 0.424 and 0.25. If you are qualified to know the difference, please answer this question in the comments. Thank you.
ZN1! 10Y T Note Futures ( 30MIN) probability: 65%
the market will keep going down and do the pull back, please Read Carefully :
The chart will keep going down and touch the Yellow Line ( You can use it as a TP manually)
If the red candle cut it with Force then you can use the Green line as Your TP at the same time ( Resistance).
If the candle Squeeze on the Yellow Line => Pull back and the market may keep going up.
If the candle squeeze on the Green Line => pull back and we considere the Yellow Line as our First TP in our uptrend.
After a Pull Back with Force the market may touch the Blue line .
I will Try to Update my prediction if i have free time.
ZN Tnote-10Y american tresury still going upNo place for selling the ZN, from 2001 it is following an ascending trend as shown in the figure. The patterns (double top & head and shoulders) I drew show that every time the market exit the canal, it goes back right after.
As the ZN is slow, I believe that after a long time, prices will reach the middle dotted line, and if the volumes help, I expect the market to reach the upper line of the canal. Otherwise, It would bump into the middle dotted line.
But in all cases, I recommend to BUY the ZN
Cups ...U'r gonna miss TLT when they're gone Chart speaks for it self
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