Macro Monday 23 ~ US Factory Orders (released today 15:00 GMT)Macro Monday 23
US Factory Orders - ECONOMICS:USFO - Released Today
U.S. Factory Orders (USFO) are reported by the U.S. Census Bureau at the start of each month. The next release for the month of October is today Monday 4th Dec 2023 at 15:00 GMT.
The USFO Report provides information on the total dollar value of new orders, shipments, and unfilled orders for durable and non-durable goods. You might recall Macro Monday 18 where we looked at the at the Durable Goods Report (ticker: FRED:DGORDER ) which only provides data on new orders received on durable goods in isolation (goods lasting longer than 3 years) whilst the USFO Report is more comprehensive and includes durable goods, non-durables (items used once or not lasting a long time like light bulbs, detergent and clothing etc.), and also includes sub trends within durables and non-durables.
Let’s have a quick look at the differences between the USFO report and Durable Goods Report below;
U.S Factory Orders Versus Durable Goods
The USFO Report is more comprehensive than the Durable Goods Report, the USFO Report examines trends within industries. For example, the Durable Goods Report may account for a broad category, such as computer equipment, whereas the USFO Report will detail figures for computer hardware, semiconductors, and monitors. This lack of detail in the Durable Goods Report is attributed to the speed at which it is released.
Time Difference of the Releases: The Durable Goods Report for October was released almost two weeks ago on the 22ndNov 2023 whilst the USFO more comprehensive report (featured today) will be released today Monday 4th December 2023. It important to know this so you can get an early indication off the Durable Goods report as to how the later USFO Report may lean.
The USFO Charts
Whilst the figures within the USFO are reported in the billions of dollars, the chart shared today shows the percentage change month over month. Readings above 0% are more favorable and below 0% are less favorable. Essentially the increase or decrease shows the overall change in percentage terms orders from month to month.
Chart 1 – US Factory Orders (USFO)
▫️ The grey line on this chart shows how the volatile the percentage month to month readings can be for the USFO. For this reason we have assigned a 12 month moving average which smooths out the data making it easier to assess the longer term trend (thin Dark Blue line).
- On Chart 1 at present you can see that the 12 month MA recently came down to the just below the 0% level and has since started to turn upwards which is positive.
- From July 2023 to present we have moved from -2% to +2.8% (a positive move indeed)
Chart 2 – USFO 12 Month Moving Average (with S&P500 for reference)
▫️ In this chart we have isolated the US Factory Orders 12 month moving average and filled the area with the color dark blue from the 0% level to whatever reading was above it or below it. In other words, the USFO 12 month moving average is the exact same as in Chart 1 but illustrated differently, we just widened it vertically to make it easier to appreciate visually and we filled the area between the 0% line and whatever its reading was on the 12 month MA.
I have included the S&P500 in purple as a rough reference of what the market was doing when we fell below the 0% level on the 12 month moving average (red zones on the chart).
USFO Chart 2 informs us of the following:
- The most obvious finding when you look at the chart is that the S&P500 can go down sideways or upwards even with the USFO 12 Month MA below zero, therefore it is not a good standalone indicator of a general market decline. For this reason I have not utilized it as a pre-recession indicator.
- We can observe that sudden declines from high readings down to below 0% on the USFO 12 month MA can precede S&P500 market decline (see lower reddish arrows on the Chart 2). This appears to have happened before most market declines or as the market declines occur, its just that its happened also when the markets continued upwards, so it is a warning indicator but its not an absolute stand alone indicator. I think we can agree that if the USFO reading is going suddenly down and below 0% it is not a good thing for the market in general but price can be contrary and we need to keep in mind that the market can “climb walls of worry” for a long time.
- If we look at the red shaded areas, we can see that during these specific periods when the USFO 12 month MA was below 0%, in three out of four of the red areas on the chart you could argue that the market was range bound and moved relatively sideways, meaning real returns during these periods would have been less than ideal (Real returns are what is earned on an investment after accounting for taxes and inflation). Inflation and taxes could have more easily corroded your returns during these periods as the entry price into the red zone was not all that different to the exit price.
In reference to the real returns comment above, Lyn Alden a highly respected economist has been touting for months that she suspects a rangebound market, similar to the brief range bound markets in the first three red zones in Chart 2 (left to right). Worth keeping in mind that we recently dipped below the 0% level and should this occur again and we sustain a sub 0% level, it may indicate that real returns might be negative going forward (subject to below 0% reading). This is not a prediction and there are no guarantees. We are just looking at the data and trying to lean on the right side of probability. Three out of Four times in the recent past real returns were not great when the USFO 12 month MA fell below 0%.
Durable Goods Report
We mentioned the Durable Goods Report above which was released almost two weeks earlier than the U.S. Factory Orders (on 22ndNov 2023). Durable Goods is more specific and focuses on the obvious, durable goods (goods that last 3 years or longer) whilst the USFO Report is more comprehensive and in addition includes non-durables (items used once or not lasting a long time like light bulbs, detergent and clothing), and it also includes sub trends within durables and non-durables.
Using New Orders for Durable Goods to Anticipate Market Direction
▫️ We previously shared how the Durable Goods chart can be used to help anticipate price movements on the S&P500, in addition to providing an advance insight into the USFO report release which is released two weeks later.
▫️ The 30 month moving average for Durable Goods can act as a threshold level for buy and sell signals for the S&P500 whilst also providing advance warnings of recession and/or capitulation events. This has been clearly illustrated in the chart.
The main findings in the chart are as follows:
1. When Durable Goods Orders(blue) fall below the 30 month moving average(brown) this is sell signal
2. When Durable Goods Orders(blue) break above the 30 month moving average(brown) this is a buy signal
3. Declining durable goods and/or a fall below the 30 month moving average has offered advanced warning of recession and/or capitulation.
The chart demonstrates that using the 30 month moving average for Durable Goods New Orders can very useful in determining market trend.
At present we are above the 30 month moving average and the moving average appears to be trending upwards however the release on the 22ndNov 2023 came in lower dropping from $294 billion down to $279 billion. This provides insight into the USFO, with durables on the decline, will we see non-durables on the decline too and a lower USFO today Monday 4th Dec 2023?
We can continue to monitor the Durable Goods chart and watch for a cross of the 30 month moving average as an additional confirmation of a change to a bearish trend for the S&P500 when or if it happens. For now this is just another chart to help us identify bearish/bullish trend changes by using the economic data from Manufacturers New Orders for Durable Goods.
Similarly the USFO Report (inclusive of non-durables) which is released today should be interesting, I wonder could we see a drop down below the 0% level or a decline from the 2.8% MoM level in line with the Durable Goods decline already observed on the 22nd Nov 2023. We will find out later today.
SUMMARY
In summary, when the USFO 12 Month Moving Average drops and remains below 0% there is an increased probability of a rangebound market with an increased likelihood of negative real returns.
Separately, the Durable Goods Chart 30 month moving average has been apt at indicating buy and sell triggers for the S&P500. At present we are falling down towards the 30 moving average but we have not crossed it yet so no trigger event here. We wait for todays USFO report release and the next Durable Goods Report later in December as we do not have any trigger events on either, just cautionary data to keep an eye on.
I hope you found this useful in understanding and making use of both these important metrics which capture consumer spending habits and sentiment.
PUKA
Triggers
Trading Success Through Journaling: Reflect, Learn & GrowHello traders, today we will talk about how journaling can be a really helpful tool for you in your trading journey. Journaling is a simple yet powerful tool that can help you gain insight into your mental and emotional state, identify patterns and triggers, and make more informed decisions. In this post, we'll explore how you can use journaling to improve your trading performance.
1. Reflect on your emotions: After each trade, take a moment to journal about your emotions during and after the trade. This can help you identify patterns in your emotional responses and provide insight into how certain emotions may affect your trading decisions.
2. Identify triggers: By journaling about specific events that preceded a trade, you can identify the triggers that lead to your emotional responses. This can help you take steps to manage your emotions before they affect your trading decisions.
3. Evaluate your decision-making: After each trade, take a moment to journal about the decision-making process you used. This can help you identify any biases or patterns in your decision-making that may be affecting your trading results.
4. Set goals and track progress: Use journaling to set goals for your trading and track your progress over time. This can help you stay motivated and focused on your long-term goals.
5. Increase self-awareness: Journaling can help you become more self-aware of your thoughts, feelings, and behaviors. This can help you identify any negative thought patterns and work to change them, which can lead to improved trading performance.
To make the most of journaling, you should be honest with yourself and write down what you truly feel and think. Journaling is a powerful tool for reflection, learning and making adjustments for the future.
It's important to note that journaling is not a standalone strategy, but rather it's a tool that can be used in conjunction with other analysis and indicators to inform trading decisions. Also, you don't need any specific equipment, just a pen and a notebook, and you can journal at any time.
In conclusion, journaling can be a powerful tool for traders looking to improve their performance and manage stress. By gaining insight into their mental and emotional state, traders can make more informed decisions and improve their overall trading results. Give it a try and see how it can help you in your trading journey.
I would love to hear about your own experiences with journaling in trading. Please feel free to share your thoughts, feedback, and tips in the comments section below. Your input and feedback is valuable to me and to the trading community!
You Can't Trade on Indicators Alone - Watch the TriggersYou cannot trade on technicals alone. One has to watch the triggers and wait for them to conclude. This was a case in point on Friday 26th August 2022, after the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell. Bulls drove the market up just prior to the speech thinking that released economic data was good for a continuation of the bear market rally. Then Chair Powell came on and in a few minutes the market tanked, BIG!!. The big shorts scored here.
The bottom line is don't trade on opinions or technicals alone. Watch for the triggers. Triggers are events, economic data and Fed decisions that sway the direction of the markets.
My JB MA CHANNEL INDICATORWe all know that moving averages, in particular, moving averages of closing prices tend to be highly inaccurate indicators and frequently miss major tops and bottoms. In backtesting, they tend to be accurate some 30 to 40% of the time which is to my way of thinking unacceptable. On the contrary moving averages of opens versus closes for highs versus lows, when used properly avoid the drawbacks of closing moving averages, particularly when combined with a trigger. Shown above is my moving average channel method which uses the 57 SMA of Williams accumulation distribution as a setup or trigger. As shown by the arrows two consecutive price bars completely below the MA channel low and triggered by Williams below SMA constitutes a sell signal. Conversely, two consecutive price bars or more above the moving average channel high accompanied by Williams above its moving average constitutes a sell trigger. The moving average channel high, the red line is a 10 period Moving average of highs. The Moving average channel low, the green line is an 8 period Moving average of the low. There are at least a dozen applications of this methodology including its ability to spot trend changes, support, resistance, swing trades, market strength, market weakness, and more. I will post some of these additional uses of the moving average channel as they present themselves. Do note that in this chart there were two instances above the moving average channel high but these were not triggered by Williams AD and therefore the trend remains down for the duration of this chart. The methodology associated with my MAC is completely rules-based and works in any timeframe. Thank you my friend Larry Williams for developing your excellent version of accumulation distribution. Thank you Dan Wall here on TV for your brilliant coding of my work.
Jake Bernstein (RBT rules-based trader)
www.jakebernstein.com
PS to see the MAC in a bull market take a look at a daily chart of Netflix (NFLX)
NQ continues to be lucrative for me. Hope for you too.If you were to look at my recent ideas you might be thinking to your self that all I trade is NQ. But I can tell you I also trade ES, RTY, CL, GC and sometimes VIX. Howevers, right now NQ has been making me profit after profit so why stop on a good thing I say!
You can see my long trigger. this is if price breaks above black trendline. This had a false breakout last week but then price dip below again. This trendline has been since February with a couple of times it being test. So it is pretty strong in my opinion. If it breaks it should be good profits with my target at 14573. You can enter aggressive with entry on breakout, or wait for confirmation of breakout with retest of this black trendline. This is more conservative.
You can see my short trigger too. This trigger is if price breakdown below top dotted yellow line. Then 2 profit targets- 1st at 14025 and second at 13907.
Both my triggers are in a very little range. this tells me we are getting a bit of a squeeze though it would be hard to tell by just looking at price action. My RSI and MFI are both hanging around 50 which is a nother signing of squeezing. Which ever direction it breaks I am looking at big profits in part due the squeeze.
Let Me know if you have questions, comments, concerns or input. I love that you all read my ideas closely and appreciate feedback and different ideas. Thumbs up me and this makes me happy too!
I hope to be posting more, but I am finding it really hard to find time lately. Hopefully real life will settle down and I will be posting a lot more.
With Love
Miss Bunny
$AEHL #stockmarket #live #news #business #trading #stocks #stock$AEHL Non-Fungible Tokens (NFT)
Antelope Enterprise Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells ceramic tiles for exterior siding and interior flooring, and design in residential and commercial buildings in the People's Republic of China. It provides porcelain tiles, glazed tiles, glazed porcelain tiles, rustic tiles, and polished glazed tiles. The company sells its products under the HD, Hengda, HDL, Hengdeli, Pottery Capital of Tang Dynasty, TOERTO, and WULIQIAO brands through a network of distributors, as well as directly to property developers. The company was formerly known as China Ceramics Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Antelope Enterprise Holdings Limited in October 2020. Antelope Enterprise Holdings Limited was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Jinjiang, the People's Republic of China.
$SPY PT 405-408 then retraces...Wells Fargo Executes Four Block Trades Worth $2 Billion
Stocks valued at $2.64 billion changed hands in a flurry of block trades Monday as tumult from the wind-down of Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management extended into a new week.
Five block trades valued at a combined $2.14 billion were executed by Wells Fargo & Co., according to a person familiar with the matter.
US STOCKS-S&P 500 near flat; hedge fund default concerns hit banks
The S&P 500 was nearly flat in Monday afternoon trading, with bank shares falling amid warnings of potential losses from a hedge fund's default on margin calls, while optimism over the economy limited the day's declines.
Nomura and Credit Suisse are facing billions of dollars in losses after a U.S. hedge fund, named by sources as Archegos Capital, defaulted on margin calls, putting investors on edge about who else might have been caught out.
Shares of Morgan Stanley were down 2.5% after the Financial Times reported it had also sold billions of shares, while the banks index shed about 1.9%. "There's still chatter as to whether or not, and which, American banks may be affected.
Wall Street's fear gauge rose.
Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.94-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.11-to-1 ratio favored decliners.
The S&P 500 posted 69 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 81 new highs and 50 new lows.
Everything has peaked...
US100 NASDAQ 10582.0 -0.25 % SHORT IDEAGood Day Everyone
Here's my idea on the NAS100 looking at it long terms if everything pans out we are looking at the formation of a H & S structure on NASDAQ significant moves to the down side would signal this move, if we see a significant rise with the bull trade will be canceled...
Good luck and happy trading everyone
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ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES
RISK-MANAGEMENT
PERIOD - SWING TRADE
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If you like the idea kindly leave a like and a follow will definitely follow back and leave your idea & Comment on the pair in the comment section. APPRECIATE IT
EPZM High Frequency Trader Buying FrenzyEPZM ran quickly out of a very short-term bottom with High Frequency Trader action. High Frequency Trader algos are focused on 3 major industries at this time. This is creating opportunities for retail Swing and Day Traders who can enter with the Professional Traders, who are setting up for the High Frequency Trader algo triggers.
TRADE TRIGGERS - WHAT ARE THEY? / VIDEO / 10 MINUTES LONGHey TradingView -
In this video I cover the concept of trade triggers and what actually gets us into the markets. Specifically I try to illustrate the point that I keep making over and over:
>> GOOD TRADERS WILL SPOT THE SAME TRADE AROUND THE SAME AREA. WHERE THEY EXACTLY GET IN AND WHY WILL BE DIFFERENT <<
So I will show you a little bit of what I use to read the charts when it comes to picking an entry, as well as go over how you might use some of the more popular indicators to do the same - EMAs and Bollinger Bands specifically.
REMEMBER - your entry is NOWHERE near as important as your exit.
I hope this video is helpful. If it is, please kindly drop a like. As always, questions both in the comments and in DMs are always, always welcome.
TRIGBTC a very interesting opportunityTechnical analysis shows that the price of TRIG is ready for breakout and is going to start an uptrend. It is about to penetrate the descending trend line and Ichimoku clouds zone. Moreover it is right at the upper edge of BB channel BB. We recommend this trading opportunity for midterm trade
Buy trigger.Trigger is making an uptrend.
If it continues then we can see at 5600 satoshis, then 7000 satoshis.
Hold for 1-3 weeks.
Triggers (TRIGBTC) Massive Breakout (60% in 4 hours + 325% PP)Triggers (TRIGBTC) is having some massive action today on Binance.
I am looking at the charts now, and I can see a huge 60% increase in a mare 4-6 hours period.
Since touching bottom on the 22nd August, TRIGBTC has increased in price by as much as 180%...
Wow, the Altcoins market is alive and well.
Lots of opportunities.
Lots of money to be made.
Now let's take a look at the chart:
We have massive volume. Which is a great indicator on its own. It means that money is pouring in.
RSI hits its highest level since April. It has been going up, and above 50, for a few days now... A very bullish signal.
STOCH is also bullish.
The weekly chart shows plenty of room left available for growth.
Over 325% profits potential to all time high from current price.
These are all bullish signals.
Expect additional bullish action from TRIGBTC in the coming weeks.
This is not a trade advice. This is a free analysis for your own learning and entertainment.
If you enjoy this post, please like and follow.
Thanks a lot for your support.
Namaste.
TRIGBuy Price: Yellow Line
TP: Green Lines
Invest Suggestion: 5-10 Percent
Profit Expectations: 5, 10 or >20 Percent
Just hold and watch. All targets will be reached within 1-3 days as my expectations. But sell after 6-7 days if any target not reached. Good Luck!
Thanks for visiting.
TRIG 20% plus play I think we could see a nice move from trig here if the volume picks up. we are coming off of a huge oversell and are holding on a strong support atm.
set stoploss @ .0000450 incase we drop out of the support.
TRIG - Base Play Strategy 86% Success RateNew Base play opportunity on TRIG.
What is my Base Play strategy? I wrote about my Base Play strategy here on TV, if you click the image below it will bring you to it.
Base play trade instructions
TRIG on Binance
Entry: Buy up to 0.00006600
Sell Target: 0.00006950
Suggested stop loss: 0.00006270
Potential Profit: 5.3%
Bases Respected: 13 out of 15 times in the past
Success Rate: 86.67%
Base Play Strategy Overall stats
102 days
Trades Won: 770
Trades Loss: 265
Winning rate: 74.4%
Total accumulative profit: 1975% Profit!!!
Your comments, agrees and disagrees are always welcome and appreciated.
Thanks for stopping by and have a great day!
TRIGBTC possible LONG opportunuty !Hello friends, here im with another chart. Trig is moving nicely, showing bullish sentiment. Daily RSI is oversold, that means it can move up anytime.
Instructions,
Redline: Stoploss
Greenline: Buy area
Bluelines: Sell and resistance areas.
This is not an investment advice. Please trade at your own risk.
BlockSafe Correction UpRecently Triggers has found the low at $0.48 where it has rejected the middle trendline of the descending channel. The RSI oscillator showed a heavily oversold condition which could result in a corrective wave up. The RSI also broke above the downtrend trendline confirming the potential reversal or correction to the upside.
The support at 227.2% Fibonacci retracement seem to be broken, thus it is too early to speak of the reversal at this point, but the correctional move upwards should be expected. TRIG/USD could reach the nearest resistance at $0.87 in no time, but only break above that resistance might confirm the beginning of the uptrend.
At this point short consolidation period is possible, but only a daily break and close below $0.48 low would invalidate bullish outlook and send price lower, towards the next Fibonacci support at 327.2%.
TRIG new cycle, 133% potentialTRIG seems to complete the market cycle.
It is in a downtrend but on the bigger picture, it is also forming a pennant.
Also Stoch RSI looks it's oversold and volume starts to decrease. This may suggest a trend reversal.
The hourly looks that there is room to go lower, maybe it will touch 0.88 retracement from the previous cycle or go a little bit lower, but on daily it looks oversold.
Also it is also in an interesting price area. The same price area acted as both support and resistance in the past.
Will take a position and will sell at key price levels that also match fib zones.
Targets sent in Telegram
TRIG/BTC
Entry is recommended at support level 980 or after crossing 1100 resistance level.
A good movement and profit is expected after crossing the resistance
Targets at 1300 - 1600 - 1900
TRIG(Triggers) Amazing Technical Setup! (Rare Cases)Technically TRIG is an amazing price level at the moment!
There are some big criteria's which lines up exactly in one place:
1. Support becomes Resistance
2. Same price level we find two(!) Fibonacci retrace levels 62% long-,short-term!
3. Good trendline which matching exactly with S&R level and fibo levels!
Now we want to see some good news and we are ready to FLY :)
My Entry zone 0.00127
Good luck,
best regards!