BTC's Rhythm, it likes 3...3 is a powerful concept in our existence. Body/Mind/Spirit. Positive/Negative/Neutral. Father/Son/Holy Ghost. You get the idea. BTC is no different.
In this chart, 0 (at the bottom, fib time) is anchored to Halvings. The period between Halvings gives us 0.33 and 0.66; one third and two thirds of the cycle respectively. In splitting the chart time up this way, a clear pattern emerges (for the past Decade or so).
From Halving to 0.33, BTC tends to Rally hard (Parabola Phase).
From 0.33 to 0.66, BTC tends to Correct.
From 0.66 to 0 (next Halving), BTC Tends to put in a Bottom/Base.
While past performance does NOT indicate future results, history does tend to rhyme. Will this time be different? Will institutional adoption alter this cycle? Will the maturing of BTC as a Global Asset change the cadence of its growth? Only time will tell.
So far this Halving is holding true to past rhymes. If, and that's a BIG IF, it continues to follow this chart... our current Parabola should endure thru ~~ Aug '25; At which point a heavy correction is quite likely.
If we see structure breaking to the downside (on the weekly timeframe), then perhaps this time IS different; as that has not occurred in previous "Parabola" Phases. This gives us a clear invalidation of this theory.
As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
Trinity
Trinity Biotech ($TRIB) Spike on Increased TrinScreen HIV OrdersTrinity Biotech plc (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TRIB ) has captured market attention with a staggering 54.20% premarket surge on Tuesday, driven by robust demand for its TrinScreen HIV product. This significant price action reflects a positive shift in both the company's fundamentals and technical indicators, setting the stage for potential further gains. Let’s delve into the key drivers behind this rally and analyze the stock from both fundamental and technical perspectives.
Fundamental Analysis:
Trinity Biotech (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TRIB ), a commercial-stage biotechnology company specializing in human diagnostics and diabetes management, has made headlines with the announcement of substantial additional orders for its TrinScreen HIV product. The company has increased its projected 2024 sales revenue for TrinScreen HIV to approximately $10 million, up from the previous estimate of $8 million. This is a testament to the growing demand and successful scaling of production capacity.
CEO John Gillard expressed confidence in the company’s ability to meet increased demand, highlighting Trinity’s long-standing expertise in rapid HIV testing. Additionally, Trinity has ramped up manufacturing for its FDA-cleared viral transport medium, FlexTrans, anticipating potential spikes in demand due to the World Health Organization's declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) for Mpox.
In its second-quarter earnings report, Trinity Biotech posted sales of $15.8 million, marking a 14.0% year-over-year revenue increase and a 7.7% quarter-on-quarter rise. The strong performance of TrinScreen HIV, which generated $3.1 million in sales during Q2, was a significant contributor to these results. The company’s reiterated guidance of approximately $20 million in annualized run-rate EBITDASO and $75 million in revenues by Q2 2025, solely from its existing businesses, underscores the solid growth trajectory.
Technical Analysis:
From a technical standpoint, NASDAQ:TRIB has shown remarkable strength. The stock has surged 54.20% in premarket trading, with prices currently sitting above the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages. This positioning indicates a strong bullish trend, as the stock has broken through critical resistance levels.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 59.43, indicating that while the stock is approaching overbought territory, it still has room to run before hitting overbought levels (typically an RSI above 70). This RSI level suggests that the stock could experience further upward momentum if market conditions remain favorable.
However, traders should be cautious of a potential "gap up" scenario. The daily price chart indicates a gap between the current price and the previous closing price, which, according to technical trading rules, often gets filled in subsequent sessions. This means that while the stock is currently on an uptrend, there may be a pullback to close this gap before the next leg up.
Conclusion:
Trinity Biotech's recent performance highlights a strong fundamental outlook, driven by increased demand for its TrinScreen HIV product and strategic operational improvements. The company’s ability to scale production and meet market demand has positioned it well for future growth.
On the technical front, NASDAQ:TRIB is in a prime position to continue its upward trajectory, with key indicators pointing to further gains. However, investors should keep an eye on the potential for a gap fill, which could present a buying opportunity at lower levels.
Trinity not so Holy no more. TRINZigzag finished, guys. Time for a slip. Whether or not this is an even bigger zigzag in formation remains to be seen.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
TRN - Highly Shorted Stock Looking BullishThe stock price has been rising since a double bottom in early October. It broke out of a downtrend today with the price finding support on a level where the price gapped up. This area is also where the 200-EMA line is. Today's short float on this stock was 11.71%. Price targets are noted on the chart.
Resurrection of IOTA, aka Jesus Reversal DojiOn the weekly timeframe we have a nice double Jesus Reversal Doji. The entire cryptospace was very toxic in the last year with its greed - a deadly sin. Many people who were in nice gains (including me) wanted still more more profit and their greed was growing parabolically with the price of BTC and other cryptos. God has warned us with this crypto crash and many people lost more than they've gained, but now here we have Jesus willing to save us and give us hope and bring back the belief in the IOTA poject.
From the fundamental perspective Jesus smells the incoming TRINITY desktop wallet and it seems that he really likes this project since he is waiting for it in pain, hanging on the cross for the second week. Now let's just cross our fingers that the price will close at the end of the week with the christian cross. There are still many days to go and it can still turn into satanic cross (pointing downwards), but if we keep praying all together I belief we can see some light soon.
And do not forget about the importance of a single lighted candle. Here is one nice trading quote from Buddha, regarding shorting lighted candle.
“Thousands of candles can be lighted from a single candle, and the life of the single candle will not be shortened. Happiness never decreases by being shared.”
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***** This is not a trading advice. Please invest responsibly *****
Trinity Biotech PLCreasons for the downmove:
US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
had raised concerns over the Troponin device’s temperature range
close facility in Sweden and move it to Ireland, which
will reduce its cost base to US$1.5mln from US$9mln
accounts will include a US$50mln write-off.
cutting 40 jobs.
Trinity will engage with the FDA for the approval
being investigated for possible violations of federal securities law
reasons for an upmove:
sells products in over 110 countries
FDA finally approves !