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Trinnisiatrades

AUS200 forecast December/JanuaryWith holiday comes low volatility. I expect market to stay within 7080-7158. Very likely till first week of January. This might play out two ways: 1. Bullish scenario: - we break above 7158, and hit 7250. (Max 7400 to form double top on daily chart and then drop to 6500 or even new lows) - looking into Elliott Waves strategy - we could face one more wave to the upside 2. Bearish scenario: - not much movement until Jan, staying around 7080-7195. - drop to 6500. Long story short I expect going back towards 2022 lows in the next three months. It’s hard to say when exactly it’ll happen. Big move can be triggered by pretty much anything at this point (worse CPIs, new Russian sanctions, restrictions in China, new wave of Covid….). This is a risky enviroment so trade carefully and always do your own analysis before opening the trade.
FX:AUS200
by Trinnisia_Trades
1
VIX analisys 13 August 2022 - why I’m still bearish on SP500That is abviously a death cross on VIX daily chart but if you look in the past last year, I doesn’t mean the trend will go much lower. We had similar thing in the beginning of this year but VIX quickly rallied and we are where we are now. Now, that’s of the way, Here are the reasons we soon see big drop on all indices: - Most of the indices tend to take same direction. If US indices rally- the others will follow. - when VIX is going down- the incides rally- this is what is happening now - the last three years is a rollercoaster and everytime VIX is dropping down and RSI is almost oversold- it moves back up with a strong move. The RSI is 34.6 now. It’s pretty low and if you look into last couple of years, this is where we should be carefull when trading. I personally believe that current VIX drop is a warning sign that this rally will be a big one but I don’t see divergency yet. It could mean VIX will stay hear for a while, and indices will try to break up. Also August is always a slow month, people being away on holiday. Again if you look at past years, September is one of the worst months in trading. There are many ways to do the market analisys, so I’m not saying I’m right. It’s completely my gut feeling but I don’t see any reasons why markets could reach ATH this year, or even anywhere close: - the war in Ukraine is still on - interests rates are going up and FED is not done yet - energy prices are going up, in three months winter season will start - this will be struggle to pay the bills for households and businesses. - companies won’t be able to afford bills, loans, and staff to pay - sure we have good jobs data by it’s summer. How many of these jobs are season jobs, how many of these are second jobs? - tension between China and US I could go on… Trading is risky, this is not a financial advice, always do your own analisys
TVC:VIX
by Trinnisia_Trades
SPX500 July 2022 CPI summaryI’m still bearish, why? - We’ve been having quite a rally for last few weeks. We are very close to 61% fibonacci, that will be strong resistance 4250. - July 2022 CPI was good but the market didn’t go much higher - we are almost overbought on daily chart - MACD looks like it might turn around soon - buyers are running put of steam, the market didn’t do much in the last week - possible divergence is forming - VIX is pretty low, on the border of being oversold, it’s been in the downtrent for almost two months. As we know the markets never go in one direction, there are highs and lows. All eyes on jobless claims tomorrow. I still can be wrong. Trading is risky, please do your own analisys before entering the markets
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Trinnisia_Trades
2
SPX500 recession is already here?I compared what happened in 2008 with current chart: - In 2008, the market fell over 50% - In 2008, the bear market lasted around 450 days If we’re about to witness similar situation now, we are long way from the bottom: - 50% drop would be around 2200, they we would see double bottom and trend revelsal - the bear market would last till March/April 2023 Of course the market doesn’t have to repeat the same pattern. I believe the worst is yet to come. If we look into this using Elliott waves, we did Wave 1, we’re about to finish Wave 2- 4200 strong resistance. It means next Wave 3 will be a big one. After seeing good numbers on Non Farm Payrols last Friday, the markets didn’t rally. It means Fed might be more hawkish in September to fight the inflation, raising interests rates even by 0.75 point. It is not a trading advice, please do your own analysis.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Trinnisia_Trades
Nikkei 225 August 5th, 2022Nikkei has been rallying in the last few days, and broke a trend line. Everyone is wondering is it a reversal move or just a bull trap. This is remain to see but for now I see pretty strong base to go higher. Saying that RSI is quite high, not oversold yet but compering to US indices JPN225 is less like to be severely oversold. Very likely the pullback is expected. MACD looked like it was going to cross the signal line but not really, we might have one/two more bullish/consolidation days. I'm going short but please do your own analysis - trading is risky
FX:JPN225Short
by Trinnisia_Trades