Bulls need to rest, breathe and make a definitive move higher.We have had plenty of these moves before. To further this move we need a convincing break through the 6800 neckline. From there I would be bullish if we then retested the level and bounced higher. Right now we are a bit extended and in need of a cool off. We have seen this before like i said. Bitcoin makes a move up as it is on its way lower after a period of depression, a news story comes out after as though it were the catalyst (actually seems more like backfitting), and everyone starts calling it a bull reversal.
Bitcoin has had decreasing volume, as we move higher on these pops the divergences become more apparent. Immediately people start sharing news stories such as the Blockrock story. It didn't take long for BlackRock to come out on Bloomberg and refute the claim, and explain the true story. It seems like everyone is waiting for the smart money to enter, as if we all have a chance to hop on the rocket ship that they will fuel. If anything seems that easy, it probably isn't likely to go as we think it will. Thats not how smart money works, odds are they have been accumulating in some way well before all of this. The problem is going to boil down to psychology and be a battle of human behavior. Many people who have lost a lot of money and are still holding bags. As we try to move higher these people find their break even to exit. I will become bullish on bitcoin again when we show convincing increase in volume. When the level 2 and Sales flash as they did during the peak. I have no problem entering after the move and missing the first 20% (If that happens).
As per the ETF. I would say on balance of probability, Its chance of being approved is about 20-25%. Right now large investors are waiting for strict regulation so their custody concerns can be squashed.
Final thoughts - Need a convincing break above 6800 and the 55 EMA.
