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Trouble

Is the DXY in trouble!?? Before we start all views are my own and are based from my overall personal research. As we have covered in previous markups and breakdowns we are taking our major lows on the larger timeframes on the DXY. Here we have a pretty simply markup here for DXY iam only looking at this for a short term idea overall i strongly believe we are set for some serious downside on the USD and with this iam waiting for a true shift to show itself... As many countries begin to decouple from the USD and the fed continues pushing the price to unsustainable levels with consistent printing of new currency we are watching history unfold in front of our eyes... Taking a deeper look into the history & future of the USD. The control and power that the US has had in the past is drastically dwindling... if you follow the power trial to its source it will and always has lead us back to the federal reserve. Now the above is an issue for many different reasons... the main reason being no country or persons should be governed or controlled by a bank or reserve, which for a long time has been the case... this leading to countries having economic collapses along with huge depts placed on them in times of crisis, when this happens to a country it 90% of the time means one side is gaining while the other is losing. due to this we are and will continue to see more countries disconnect and distance themselves from the USD. Once we get to our tipping point where the USD has truly lost its grip on the global economy it will be to late to revert from its course, which i believe will take us to lows we've not seen in decades, ultimately leading to the collapse of the USD... Now iam no economist nor a financial expert, but I urge everyone that reads this to do your own research to the state of the USD and how the fed is "dealing" with the matter. To sum up, iam looking for prices to drop below 100 on the DXY in the coming months and possibly even weeks... Whatever the outcome trader stay safe and stick to your plan!
TVC:DXYShort
by rosshayes
What if Citron is right?Current market cap = 14.889b FY 22 sales = $2.57b Price to Sales ratio = 5.80 Etsy has been accused by citron research of selling counterfeit products look at the below tweet for their reasoning twitter.com Now here are the 3 big questions to be answered 1. Will ETSY face legal problems in removing all counterfeit products? 2. What % of their 2.57b revenue comes from that products? 3. How much will they have to cut on their ads spend once they deal with this potential problem? how will that affect their sales numbers in the future? I don't think Mr market likes companies in that kind of legal trouble! $12 market price = $1.48b market cap ;) P/S = 0.5-1 ??? My gain is your loss ;) it's a zero-sum game after all. Do your own research! Look first / Then Leap
NASDAQ:ETSYShort
by Philoslother
1
DOLLAR (DXY): Things could get ugly next weekIt's all on the charts. The Dollar does not like trenches. Zoom into chart for a better view. This is a probabilistic estimate for a 51% chance movement north. That means there is a 49% chance of no direction north. Prediction this is not (because predictions are 100% for occurrence). What this means is that the probability north should be factored into all instruments that are linked to the DXY strength. Equities indices for example have been profiteering from a relatively weak dollar. It is of course possible that both equities and dollar strength head south. Possible but not likely. If that happens it will be a whole new era. Stay safe. Don't burn cash. May the force be with you! 😁😄
TVC:DXY
by Captain_Walker
2
DAX: Flashing a clear warning to everybody!Some saw it, some missed it - and some don't want to see it. It's still there: The Death Cross. It is not common for a death cross to appear on daily time frames of indices. When it happens due caution is needed. No predictions here. The probability at this time is greater for the south. How far south? The markets will tell us. The markets have not spoken to me. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
WHSELFINVEST:GERMANY40CFDShort
by Captain_Walker
DJI: More troubleWhat's happening here? 1 - There is a sharp ATR spike for the down side. 2 - Price has made a struggling rebellion (so far). At each sharp spike of the ATR price has travelled south. That doesn't mean price is bound to do the same again. However the latest spike down is even sharper than the previous two. What this means is that there is a 51% chance of further movement south (leaving 49% chance for the opposite). If price moves south, I do not know how far south as I cannot see into the future. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
TROUBLE: In a land down under!The Aussies are in trouble but they may not know it as yet. Caution : this is not a prediction that the AUS200 is about to crash, or will crash. All observations and comment are based on this snapshot in time. Next week this analysis may be irrelevant if the picture changes dramatically. Features on the chart: 1 - A clear sign of rebellion after panic selling. 2 - The rebellion is actually weak, in technical terms. 3 - The retracement up into 61.8 fib was unsurprising. 4 - Price struggled in the first (lower) zone of congestion. 5- Price was rejected twice from the second (higher) zone of congestion. 6. Price remains under the Daily ATR (amber line) - which represents a big change in sentiment at a macro-economic level. I don't trade daily time frames, as they take too long to deliver and they are too risky for me. I would go long and short in a daily time frame bull or bear market on much lower time frames e.g. 3 to 15 min (which in trend following cant take days to complete). Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
2
DJI (2H): That mini crash - what does next week hold?Well, there is trouble in the markets for sure. Last week saw a meltdown of about 8% from one peak, on the DJI. My crystal ball broke a long time ago, and I'm not getting a new one from Ebay. 😂 The video outlines how vigilance on the 2H timeframe paid off for anyone who wanted to short this market. So - what about next week (beginning Mon 24th Jan)? No predictions, all you get is probability and some of my experience. (Note the disclaimer below) There is a massive gap between the 2H ATR line and the lowest price point. That in conjunction with the deep dive (much of it being panic), suggests that dip-buyers (unless they've wised up) are gonna plough in. What those folk are largely unaware of is that Wall Street traders can not only sell but short sell. What if price gets above the 2H ATR line next week or the following week? It doesn't mean a lot because there is the mother of 4H and 6H trends in the bigger picture. In fact there has already been a major shift in market sentiment on the 1D time frame. That's something to do with the FED, and interest rates etc. But in technical analysis causal factors are not so important. A grind down further from the current price point is also possible. My overall estimate is for rebellions. It could be very wild out there next week. That's good for scalping if you know what you're doing. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
GETTING READY: Looking back to 2020In this video I look back to early 2020, to see how the 40% collapse in the DJI happened. Am I preparing for a collapse or correction? Yes I am. Preparing does not mean I am predicting. What is see looking back is, that a 2 hour ATR trend south had developed. It is the best fit. I had tried 1H trend but that did not fit well enough, where price would stay below he ATR line. This index has been pumped up on implicit guarantees coming from the FED. We saw a similar scenario in the mortgage markets around 2008. Readiness is everything. When you're in a trend down, you won't really know for sure because you can't see the whole trend, like we see now looking back to 2020. This time around, I'm getting ready. The last major correction occurred in Feb 2020. So I am on high alert all now. I'm watching every 2hour switch. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
DAX: Head and Shoulders pictureIt looks like a head and shoulders to me on the 4H time frame, but always debatable. Sentiment changed on this index many days ago, as seen in the 4H ATR line (on this time frame only). This short setup is for true trend followers (not trend continuation). That means it is much higher risk to much higher reward ratios. There are stop losses in trend following, but no predefined exit points. The markets decide the exit. As usual you take your own risk and your own losses. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FX:GER30
by Captain_Walker
1
Indian market: Kill zoneThere is a killzone in this. What this means is that it's an optimal zone to take a controlled loss. Errrh.. that's called a 'stop loss'. That means there are losses involved. Shorting markets is well known to be more dangerous than going long in markets. This is not advice to short. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
I
by Captain_Walker
BITCOIN FRENZY: BEWAREThis is not a prediction. The daily chart of BTC is actually showing no surprises. But if you read lamestream media you will see how people are scratching their heads about a recent pump north on BTC. There are two important structure areas. The recent pump came off one of them - because 'everybody' was thinking the same thing. The next structure area is in sight around 50,000. I don't know - nor can I predict that price will bounce south off 50,000-ish. What I can imagine of human nature is that 'everybody' might get the same idea to dump around that price point. ATR switches on the daily time frame have about a 55% reliability (from my own experience) - which is better than rolling dice. I don't know if price will get into the higher troubled zone. It could collapse now. I just don't know. Nothing in this post is to be relied upon, because am not a fortune teller. See the fat disclaimer below and on the chart. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Captain_Walker
1
ETHEREUM: Probable reversal patternThis is indicative - not predictive - of a reversal pattern. See-saw patterns at market tops and bottoms generally mean something. What that means is 'be careful'. What more can I say? Nothing. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions and not intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by Captain_Walker
Is there new trouble in Chinatown?Sharp ATR switches usually mean something for true trend followers. The chart shows an important 2H trend switch. As always, with trend following it's not possible to say whether the trend is going to end soon or whether it'll continue for longer. This could even be a minor correction in a daily trend, but how would you know if it's not the start of a new trend south. You can't know. Something spooked markets around the world - especially the so-called Asian markets. See 4H picture below The DJI did a bull run and disconnected from the USTech100. We'll probably find out later what all that as about. It could well have been words of hope uttered by Yellen, who knows. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
OANDA:CN50USDShort
by Captain_Walker
GOLD: In trouble?There are some key levels to watch with Gold. This is a nice one to see if and when patterns may repeat themselves. Two areas highlighted in yellow show some similarity. This could be a short on a lower time frame. If shorting and you cannot take loss on your stop-loss, leave it alone. No suggestions given for positions and stoplosses. Price and price action may change. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Captain_Walker
2
USTECH (30m) - potentially bearishNo promises on this one - I can't. This is one to watch. Tech stocks have been in a bit of a problem, not benefiting from hopes of a vaccine for COVID-19. After all, tech was feeding off the pandemic in various ways. Tech and the virus are basically friends. So if the vaccine would limit or kill the pandemic, that's not good for tech stocks in general. We're could see what's known as 'sector rotation' (read up). Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
U
by Captain_Walker
DAX: Probable exhaustionA head and shoulders (H&S) pattern is shown on this time frame. The right shoulder - not formed properly as yet - appears to be exhausting at this time. Price is struggling to stay afloat. This predicts nothing. The position is one to watch for those trading on lower time frames. Higher time frame perspectives are a must. This perspective is looking well ahead. So I'm setting alerts for when price gets near a possible base of right shoulder. It may never get there. But getting ready is everything. For new and seasoned traders: it's possible to draw H&S patterns how ever you want. It is rare to find a very neat H&S. I think these patterns should not be used in a predictive way. It is about understanding where you are in the markets, and taking calculated affordable losses (aka stop-losses). Losses are an inevitable part of trading, and the biggest issue affecting profitability. Stay safe. Wash your hands. Keep a clean keyboard. Wear a good mask. 😃👳‍♂️ Treat the markets like a dangerous virus that wants to grab your money! 🤣🤦‍♂️😄 Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FX:GER30
by Captain_Walker
BITCOIN: Gamblers may suffer.The chart shows a powerful sharp switch in sentiment - which is rare on the 8H time frame. Clearly sentiment has been dented. I see small gamblers jumping in, buying the dip. Sure - on smaller time frames they may make a few bucks. However, at the moment I think they risk transferring money out of their pockets - on the probabilities shown on this time frame (only). Price is struggling around 50% or 61.8% fib on this time frame. The remaining big investors could be lurking in a kill zone for a big sell off - I can't be certain. I don't get a good feeling going long on BTC at this time. I'm happy to miss out - I would have lost nothing! 👍👌 Losing nothing in trading is actually winning! Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Captain_Walker
4
TROUBLED DAX - POSSIBLE H&SThe DAX could be heading into new trouble as Europe goes into turmoil. I see a head and shoulders in there on this 30 min time frame. It's never perfect. These take on a wide variety of shapes. Have a look. (Note disclaimers). Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FX:GER30
by Captain_Walker
US TECH: GAME OVER?Well, get your popcorn ready!! US Tech 100 is in a precarious position. This is another thing that rules the world! Price ducked below 11000 - which is considered important. Will it stay below? How would I know? 🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️ At time of posting price is a 10920-ish. Does this mean the backs of the USTECH and NASDAQ are broken? Of course not. Expect permabulls to do their stuff. We need them - for the big money transfer- so they're much loved! 🤣 Price action on this on the 3 to 5 min time frame today was soooo exciting! LOL. Call me a nerd - it's fine. LOL. 😉😎 If you wanna see what's really happening you just gotta get dirty in the trenches! I'll be doing a video soon, showing how I look at price action in the indices, comparing the rule of Tech100 with other indices. Stock up on popcorn! 😂👳‍♂️ I don't do predictions - because I believe trend is more important than price . Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
UEducation
by Captain_Walker
TESLA RATTLED! Well, there was trouble at TESLA (TSLA). The chart shows major switches in ATR, SqM and investor sentiment. These are not predictive - and I don't do predictions. The changes are indicative of probability for the south. Price could go north before going south, if a bearish envelope persists. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Captain_Walker
BRACE! TESLA: may correct soon. Pure greed has driven TESLA to ridiculous heights. Robinhoods are in this market. Most of them from China. Parabolic expansions tend to fall - sometimes very quickly. Stay tuned. Stay safe. Wash your hands and face! 😂 Eat veg! LOL. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, or miss opportunity, kindly sue yourself.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Captain_Walker
6
Where is the NIFTY50 heading? The short answer is that I don't know! As I keep saying, I don't own the future. I'll say what I see and my inferences. 1- Wide zone of congestion approaching - likely to cause hesitation. 2 - A rising contracting wedge. 3 - A retracement on the 1D time frame up to near 76.4%. None of this is predictive of anything. Markets do as they like - or more accurately, as the FED likes them to. Yes - the FED also rules the Indian markets and nearly every other market around the world. Based purely on the technical picture the probability estimates are for: 1 - hesitation 2 - a 38.2% retracement down on the rebellion. Note that I have shown two possible projections. I have seen markets do very strange things. This is not advice to short or go long on this or any other market. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
NSE:NIFTY
by Captain_Walker