Buy using probabilityThe way probability distribution works is most common the result - higher the result on the bell curve and rare events are on the bottom of curve.
On strong markets, prices rarely ever sit still at pivotal levels like 200dma or high VIX.
Here we also saw higher lows, market only had two directions (crash or bull). If you know how markets work (or the drivers) this was a high probability entry.
Sometimes accumulating VIX points to pressure building up and steam is being taken out from markets?
"Prices are result of Supply-Demand dynamics". I would argue that big players benefit from buying low and defending peaks (as they got nothing to lose). would argue they lose by not buying low.
This is a theoretical idea to give you perspective on strategy?
Trough
Peak to Trough, Anatomy of a Market CorrectionThere are a lot of discussions about whether or not the 2022 corrections bottom is in.
This idea attempts to compare the 2022 bear market correction with 2008.
Peak to Trough, the 2008 GFC lasted 17 months.
The 2020 and 2022 corrections were both nearly identical in price, but recovery in 2020 was assisted with QE while 2022 face increased tightening.
The problem with comparing the 2 corrections is that 2008 was a crisis, and 2022 as of yet, is not.
The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) was plagued with bad Sub-Prime mortgages in Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and Collateralized Debt Obligations(CDO) that turned record profits into crushing losses for lenders.
In 2008, Bear Sterns was bought by JPMorgan for $2/share and the Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy of 620 Billion in Debt, 7% the size of the Fed Debt.
Zoom out and you see the 2022 Trough found support at the 10Yr Regression Trend from 2009-2019.
Is the bottom in?
Difficult to tell, hard the future is to see.
I'll update the chart when a turning point occurs or continue to reach for all time highs.
Indicator introduction: Custom Volume - Periodic Peaks & TroughsThis script is a custom volume indicator with additional features.
But why is this useful?
The minimum and maximum volumes, in different time periods, are displayed by labels below the bars. I call them "Peaks" and "Troughs"(Hover your mouse cursor over the labels to see more details)
These parameters are widely used in technical analysis .
If traders want to confirm a reversal on a level of support–or floor–they look for high buying volume . Conversely, if traders are looking to confirm a break in the level of support, they look for low volume from buyers.
If traders want to confirm a reversal on a level of resistance–or ceiling– they look for high selling volume . Conversely, if traders are looking to confirm a break in the level of resistance, they look for high volume from buyers.
How to use alerts
Note that by creating an alert, an instance of the indicator, with all your settings, will be activated on the site's server and alerts will be triggered by it.
After that, changing the indicator settings on the chart will no longer affect the alert.
Open the settings window and select the alert conditions as you wish
Click the Create Alert button (or press the A key while holding down the ALT key)
In the Condition section, select the name of the indicator.
Make the rest of the settings as you wish.
Finally, click on the Create button.
It's finished. After a few moments, your alert will be added to the Alerts menu.
TYA Long: Potential 20% upsideWhat does the last 2 troughs in the TYA channel has in common with the current? Equity markets were at all-time-high. SPX CY'18 is expected to deliver +26% eps growth this year thanks to the tax cuts and budget deficits. Next year, it is expected to deliver something closer to norm, 10% growth. That is if the Trump's FART bill (google it, not kidding, there is a FART bill in circulation) does not kill growth growth. TLT is also trading at the bottom of a multi-decade range and has a +40% upside.
GOLD SHORT TERM BEARGold was consistently made higher trough in the shallow trend line. From the dow theory perspectives, the current trend still sideways. Nevertheless, gold now advancing to the lower level, creating new lower trough and the bat pattern of harmonic calculation will be completed. There is no sign of sideways transition reversal, as it formed higher and lower peak, respectively.