World gold price is moving sideways around 2,573 USD/ouncePressured by a rebound in the US dollar and a slight rise in US government bond yields, the yellow metal lost 0.5% after hitting an all-time high of $2,589 an ounce earlier in the week. Traders are now waiting to see whether the US Federal Reserve will pivot policy at this meeting as expected.
Following a series of optimistic data, financial markets are predicting the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates more aggressively in its first interest rate cut since 2020. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is certain about the possibility of easing monetary policy with 63% predicting a cut of 50 basis points.
Trtading
Trading strategy for todayThe Fed is likely to signal plans to cut rates in September when it concludes its meeting on Wednesday, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, a move they see as leading to quarterly rate cuts through 2025. Rate markets are pricing in a 100% September move, with the possibility of two more cuts by year-end, according to swaps data compiled by Bloomberg.
“While the July FOMC meeting may be too early to start cutting rates, it is not too early to start preparing for a September cut,” Stephen Gallagher, an economist at Societe Generale, wrote in a note to clients.
Hours before the Fed’s decision, the BoJ is expected to detail its plans to reduce bond purchases this month at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, while most economists also see a chance of a rate hike. USDJPY fell 2.4% last week as traders priced in more than a two-thirds chance of a 10-bps rate hike, triggering a selloff in risk-sensitive developed and emerging market currencies and sending the Nikkei 225 into a technical correction.
Precious metals are in an uptrendMany forecasts say that China will hold to shop for gold due to the fact the share of gold withinside the country`s forex reserves remains very low, handiest 4.9%. Meanwhile, Beijing desires to lessen its dependence at the USD.
According to specialists, treasured steel expenses have simply received momentum after the speech of the Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed). Mr. Jerome Powell stated that US inflation has cooled down. Experts and traders are growing expectancies that the Fed will quickly loosen economic coverage.
After the monetary and employment information had been released, many specialists stated that the opportunity that the Fed might begin slicing hobby prices in September extended from 65% to 68%. In addition, the marketplace additionally expects some other hobby fee reduce through the Fed in December.
Currently, traders look ahead to the mins of the United States Central Bank's contemporary coverage assembly and the non-farm payroll file to recognize greater approximately hobby fee cuts.
XAU increased sharply before PMI newscadastral risks in the Middle East and the expectation that the Fed will maintain the current situation, this increases the attractiveness for
However, the increase in USD and government bond yields across all terms could weaken the upward momentum of XAU/USD. The market is focusing on the US PMI report published tonight.
On the D1 frame, the key resistance to watch is at $2,090, with the next target at $2,100, the 21-day MA at $2,037 and the all-time high at $2,144. Gold's upward momentum is reinforced when the RSI rises above 50 and the 100-day MA is about to cross above the 200-day MA.
On the contrary, if sellers regain control, the first support to watch is last Friday's bottom at $2,058, then $2,050.
EUR/USD rebounded to 1.0950, waiting for US economic dataImproved US economic data supported the USD rebound and put pressure on the EUR. The market is focusing on the third quarter GDP report and last week's US unemployment claims for new catalysts.
On frame D1, EUR/USD decreased sharply on Wednesday after 2 consecutive sessions of increase. The pair remains above the 20-day MA with technical indicators giving mixed signals. If we can close the day above the 1.1000 mark, it will attract more buying pressure. On the contrary, a successful test of support at 1.0880 will increase selling pressure.
XAU direction prediction and trading strategy(XAU/USD) fell ahead of the European open on Friday following the release of a better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. This development reduces investor expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates soon.
US nonfarm payrolls increased month over month, exceeding market expectations. Furthermore, wage inflation accelerated to 0.2% from 0.1% the previous month.
These numbers offset the impact of the JOLT and ADP jobs reports released earlier this week, which raised questions about the possibility of the Fed returning to a tightening cycle for the 55th month. According to Fed Watch Tool of CME Group, the probability of reducing benchmark interest rates has decreased to less than % compared to the previous time. This has created new momentum for US bond yields, pushing the US dollar higher. In the short term, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is expected to show some improvement, which could provide another boost to the US dollar.
Furthermore, lingering uncertainty around China and escalating tensions in the Middle East provide further support for the safe-haven dollar.
In short, the gold market is currently navigating a complex environment driven by economic data, Fed interest rate expectations and geopolitical concerns. Investors are closely monitoring these factors to better understand future gold price trends.
GoldViewFX - 4H CHART MARKET UPDATEHey Everyone,
Please see 4h chart.
TARGETS
1903, 1912
RETRACEMENT TARGET
1881
SWING RANGE
1855
We remain Bullish buying dips. 1903 is our next target but we have outstanding retracement target to 1881. We have already banked our buys and now staying out for the remaining trading day and closing the week on a high!!!!
Chasing a trend all the way to the finish line can be risky. I always manage my risk with the range and even after seeing targets, I still get out with 20 to 30 pips at a time. This allows me to quickly switch up direction, should the structure change, without feeling committed.
I will come back with some thorough analysis this weekend with targets up and down, to watch out for next week. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support our work. It helps us to bring more quality content to you all.
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