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SPX & Bitcoin Correlation & US presidential election #Spx 1D chart; Let me first talk about the importance of the S&P 500 chart; They are positively correlated (i.e. they move together): *#Nasdaq100 *#Oil *#Bitcoin (sometimes) Now, what I want to draw your attention to is that just before the presidential elections, in September and October, there was always a decline. After the elections, there has been a continuous upward trend in the first 100 days. Not counting the 2008 world economic crisis, this has never changed in the last 3 elections. Even after the 2008 crisis, after falling for a while, it started to rise immediately afterwards. The data we are evaluating here is the first 100 days. In September 2024, I indicated the decline with an orange circle With a decline in October, a long-term uptrend may begin. If Bitcoin also shows a correlation here, which is my expectation as in the #Btc chart I drew earlier, we will start a permanent uptrend after suffering for another 1 month. SP500 end of first 100 days data after the US Presidential election: Post 2020 Election (Joe Biden): +17% Post 2016 Election (Donald Trump): +10% After 2012 Election (Barack Obama - Second Term): +10% After 2008 Election (Barack Obama - First Term): -19%
CBOE:SPXLong
by ugurtash
BITCOIN $94K to $145K !!🌱 BTC exit plan strategy - Currently in larger degree of Wave 5, which is the shortest dated and most aggressive wave up. I'm expecting it to peak around $94k to $100k being an achievable target with an optimistic target of $145k. After that, we'll probably see a distribution phase driven by euphoria--think soft landing hype and trump's crypto endorsements. As BTC hits those highs, altcoins are likely to catch all the liquidity and start outperforming. When the bullish sentiments peaks, that's probably the real-mid cycle top everyone's been talking about. I also think that this consolidation phase lasted for so long, so when BTC breaks out of this range, it creates a MASSIVE EMOTIONAL GAP and everyone will start FOMO-ing in.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by chase_ID
2
Trading the Presidential Debate Investor focus is about to turn to the televised presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. With the race currently so tight, even a small post-debate shift in voter sentiment could impact key markets. Budget forecasters are grappling with constant changes, and Tuesday's Harris-Trump debate could introduce new ideas. What we currently know: Trump’s recent embrace of crypto, including plans to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler and promote U.S. Bitcoin mining, could fuel volatility in digital currencies. Harris, though less vocal on crypto, supports policies fostering tech growth, but her stance remains less defined. Trump’s plan to slash the corporate tax rate to 15% could boost S&P 500 earnings, while Harris’s proposal to raise it to 28%, a move that may weigh on profits and valuations. The U.S. dollar could rise under Trump’s policies, with tariffs and increased fiscal spending driving inflation and higher interest rates. However, current estimates show Trump's agenda significantly increasing federal debt which may weigh on its long-term outlook.
BLACKBULL:BTCUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
DJT might flyDJT (Trump Media) Short Interest % Float 15,93 % Off-Exchange Short Volume Ratio 57,52 % With the upcoming political events and elections and this stock being a potential investment vehicle for allies, and also considering how far the stock has been sold down by now, this seems like an ideal candidate for a massive short squeeze. Disclaimer: This idea is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any asset. Any decisions made based on the information presented in this idea are the sole responsibility of the individual. All investment decisions should be made independently, taking into account your financial situation and objectives.
NASDAQ:DJTLong
by variable_not_defined
2
DXY - Looking to Big PictureWhen we look back, when Trump first came, Dxy showed a 5.5% increase, Dxy goes to 103.5. And Trump Dxy is too expensive, the dollar is too expensive, it should fall, the statements started. Then Dxy's 14% decrease went to 88.5. Now Dxy is around 102. I bought it directly as a fractal from August 15, 2016. If Dxy comes to around 104 until the election, the rapid increase with Trump's arrival corresponds to 110s. It has been an expected area for a long time and when Trump Dxy is at 110s, similarly, if the decrease starts with him saying the dollar is too expensive, it goes to 94s, fractal. Here, my hopes begin and I say that it is still expensive at those levels, we will go down to 86s. This means a 4-year never-ending mega bull. I applied the same fractal to the euro, and the much-anticipated 1.02s are here again. If I can get a fund, I will look for swing shorts at 1.12s. The fractal and events looked pretty good to me. It also fit the channel nicely. FX:EURUSD
TVC:DXY
by mooniron
TRUMP Coins : HIGH RISK !MEXC:BABYTRUMPUSDT MEXC:STRUMPUSDT BITMEX:BTRUMPT BITMART:TRUMPUSDT Trump coins recently surged as Kamala Harris said she would appoint SEC Chair Gary Gensler as Treasury Secretary if she wins. To be perfectly clear, this post is NOT aimed at showing preference to either party - but rather taking a look at where trump-related altcoins could go next after the surge. 1) MAGAUSDT 📢Verdict - SHORT 👉Bearish M-Pattern after a 77% increase: 2) TRUMPUSDT 📢Verdict - UNDECISIVE 👉 Price playing sideways after a 62% increase: 3) BTRUMPTUSDT 📢Verdict - SHORT 👉 Price making lower highs and lower lowers after a 127% increase: 4) STRUMPUSDT 📢Verdict - SHORT 👉 Price in strong downtrend after a 64% increase: 5) BABYTRUMPUSDT 📢Verdict - SHORT 👉 Clear Top-Out, watch out for losing trendline: Considering these are all MEME COINS - trade with extreme caution since they are very high risk trades. _____________________________
Short
by CryptoCheck-
4 Political Tensions Fueling Gold Prices As gold aims to test record high again, let's look at some of the political issues possibly driving the price action. Iran Tensions Escalate: The Pentagon has dispatched a guided missile submarine and a carrier strike group, to the Middle East. This move follows Iran's vow of retaliation against Israel after a senior Hamas leader was killed in Tehran last month. With nearly two weeks passing without a retaliation, the atmosphere remains tense. US Political Landscape: A recent New York Times/Siena poll places Vice President Kamala Harris, who is on a swing state tour, ahead of former President Donald Trump by four points in key battleground states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. However, with nearly three months left until the election, the race remains fluid. Trump is set to appear in an interview with Elon Musk on the X platform, looking for a shift in momentum. US Economic Concerns: Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan warned that U.S. consumers might become “dispirited” if the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts. He emphasized that once consumer sentiment turns negative, recovery becomes challenging. However, Moynihan acknowledged that Bank of America no longer anticipates a recession. Ukraine’s Military Advance: Ukraine’s top military commander reported control over 1,000 square kilometers of Russia’s neighboring Kursk region, with Russia evacuating over 76,000 residents from western Kursk. Russia is now evacuating residents from a second border region as Ukraine's surprise week-long offensive within Russian territory intensifies.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Dollar Strengthening and the coming election cycleUS Dollar will continue to ping pong between supply and demand during the election cycle. With other major economies like China's being Paper Tigers, the U.S. will by osmosis become stronger. As we learned years ago, nationalized tightly controlled markets don't work as well or at all. The CCP will try and buy gold and other assets to de-dollarize which will only work for so long to make the dollar look weaker than it actually is. Trump's cabinet is largely ...less scientifically or mathematically inclined when it comes to policy. This will hurt the U.S. economy by increasing tax breaks for corpos and making it harder to maintain a healthy economy as wealth disparity increases. Despite Biden's less than stellar speaking skills, his policies reflect modern neoliberal globalist economic principles which tend to make America wealthier than other superpowers. Overall, we should expect a hawkish trend despite the extreme propaganda machine telling you that the dollar is weakening. This is a great contrarian opportunity. That is, if you think Biden will win the election. If not, get ready to look towards other assets like gold and Bitcoin.
TVC:DXYLong
by ghosttrees
14
BITCOIN - TRUMP ENDORSES BITCOIN AS US CRITICAL RESERVE - CM101BITCOIN / USD TA To provide a technical analysis of Bitcoin based on the chart, let's focus on key elements such as trend lines, chart patterns, and Fibonacci retracement levels: 1. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: - The Fibonacci retracement levels marked on the chart indicate significant price levels where Bitcoin may find support or resistance. We do not believe that we will see such levels any time soon though... These levels are: - 0.236 at approximately $21,849 - 0.382 at approximately $27,207 - 0.5 at approximately $32,484 - 0.618 at approximately $38,784 - 0.786 at approximately $49,919 2. Chart Patterns: - The chart shows a descending channel where Bitcoin has been consolidating. - The breakout from this descending channel is crucial. The chart indicates a potential breakout to the upside. 3. Support and Resistance Levels: - The immediate resistance level is around $68,846 (the previous high). - There is support at approximately $62,500, which is indicated by the red line and the lower boundary of the descending channel. - Further support levels are aligned with the Fibonacci retracement levels mentioned above. 4. Trend Analysis: - The overall trend appears to be bullish as Bitcoin has been making higher highs and higher lows since the bottom in early 2023. - The breakout from the descending channel could signal a continuation of this bullish trend. 5. Price Projections: - If Bitcoin breaks above the $69,000 resistance level and sustains the momentum, the next major psychological level is around $77,000. - In a highly bullish scenario, the price could target the $100,000 mark, as indicated by the green projection on the chart, by end of September as previously suggested. 6. Potential Bearish Scenario (Unlikely, but nothing is off the table): - If Bitcoin fails to break out and falls below the $62,500 support level, it could retest lower Fibonacci levels. The first significant support in this scenario would be around $49,919 (0.786 Fibonacci level). Summary - Bullish Scenario: Breakout above $69,000 with targets at $77,000 and potentially $100,000. - Bearish Scenario: Failure to break out and a drop below $62,500 with possible retests of $49,919 and lower Fibonacci levels. Recommendations: - For Bulls: Watch for a confirmed breakout above $69,000 before entering long positions. - For Bears: Monitor the $62,500 support level closely for potential short opportunities if the price breaks down. Not financial advice, just what we see playing out on the charts.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoManiac101
BITCOIN - TRUMP ENDORSES BITCOIN AS US CRITICAL RESERVE - CM101BITCOIN / USD TA To provide a technical analysis of Bitcoin based on the chart, let's focus on key elements such as trend lines, chart patterns, and Fibonacci retracement levels: 1. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: - The Fibonacci retracement levels marked on the chart indicate significant price levels where Bitcoin may find support or resistance. We do not believe that we will see such levels any time soon though... These levels are: - 0.236 at approximately $21,849 - 0.382 at approximately $27,207 - 0.5 at approximately $32,484 - 0.618 at approximately $38,784 - 0.786 at approximately $49,919 2. Chart Patterns: - The chart shows a descending channel where Bitcoin has been consolidating. - The breakout from this descending channel is crucial. The chart indicates a potential breakout to the upside. 3. Support and Resistance Levels: - The immediate resistance level is around $68,846 (the previous high). - There is support at approximately $62,500, which is indicated by the red line and the lower boundary of the descending channel. - Further support levels are aligned with the Fibonacci retracement levels mentioned above. 4. Trend Analysis: - The overall trend appears to be bullish as Bitcoin has been making higher highs and higher lows since the bottom in early 2023. - The breakout from the descending channel could signal a continuation of this bullish trend. 5. Price Projections: - If Bitcoin breaks above the $69,000 resistance level and sustains the momentum, the next major psychological level is around $77,000. - In a highly bullish scenario, the price could target the $100,000 mark, as indicated by the green projection on the chart, by end of September as previously suggested. 6. Potential Bearish Scenario (Unlikely, but nothing is off the table): - If Bitcoin fails to break out and falls below the $62,500 support level, it could retest lower Fibonacci levels. The first significant support in this scenario would be around $49,919 (0.786 Fibonacci level). Summary - Bullish Scenario: Breakout above $69,000 with targets at $77,000 and potentially $100,000. - Bearish Scenario: Failure to break out and a drop below $62,500 with possible retests of $49,919 and lower Fibonacci levels. Recommendations: - For Bulls: Watch for a confirmed breakout above $69,000 before entering long positions. - For Bears: Monitor the $62,500 support level closely for potential short opportunities if the price breaks down. Not financial advice, just what we see playing out on the charts.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoManiac101
Bitcoin – We Are In July 2016, In July 2024Just look at what the market looked like in July 2016, before the US election. As it did in the first half of 2016, Bitcoin has moved the same way over the year 2024 so far. That means if Donald is elected again we are up bigly running to April next year and then up hugely running to the end of 2025. We will all get very rich but it won't matter anyway because society will become very unstable. But you will enjoy great wealth in the meantime, enjoy!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by zoomerjd
Democrats Return to the Election Battle with Harris!Democrats Return to the Election Battle with Harris! Financial Markets Confused! Kamala Harris, with the support of 68% of Democrats, is closer to competing against Trump. The Vice President of the United States, Kamala Harris, has surpassed the necessary support threshold to secure the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. This positions her as the likely candidate from the Democratic Party to compete against the Republican nominee, Donald Trump. While it seemed the Democrats were nearing the end of their journey and with Biden's withdrawal it was expected that the road would be clear for the Republicans, Harris's candidacy has created new challenges for the crypto market. It is now difficult to predict whether Trump will win the upcoming US election, as Harris could secure the votes of African Americans and women. Additionally, it seems some people who did not want to choose between Trump and Biden now have a new candidate to vote for. With all these issues, it seems the crypto market has lost the excitement of Trump's potential presidency and is pricing current events with a sense of confusion! Technical Analysis of Bitcoin Bitcoin, after reaching $68,500 and creating a double top at this level, has returned to $66,500. The presence of negative divergence and the uncertainty of Trump's victory due to Harris's nomination by the Democrats are market risks, while the launch of Ethereum ETFs is a positive market event today. Losing $66,500 could lead to further decline to $63,800 and $62,500.
Short
by Cryptowormshot
ETH ETFs to Follow Bitcoin's Footsteps? ETH/USD is expected to experience increased volatility this week, with spot Ethereum ETFs set to go live on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is poised to finalize updates on the products today. Ethereum ETFs follow the path of eleven trading spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have amassed over $54 billion in assets under management since their January debut. Bitcoin has surged 47% this year. Demand for the ETH ETF funds are projected to be 20% that of the spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin 2024 Conference will commence on July 25, featuring Republican nominee Donald Trump, who is set to discuss a potential US Bitcoin strategy. Speculation is rife that Trump may announce the creation of a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve during his highly anticipated appearance. David Bailey, the organizer of the Bitcoin 2024 conference has also hinted that Tesla CEO Elon Musk could make a surprise appearance at the event. Musk recently updated his X profile picture to feature laser eyes, a symbol among bitcoin and crypto enthusiasts as noted by Michael Saylor, founder of bitcoin-buying software company MicroStrategy, alongside a screenshot of Musk's new profile picture.
BLACKBULL:ETHUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
After Joe Biden's Withdrawal, Where is Bitcoin Headed? Following Joe Biden's withdrawal from the election race, Bitcoin experienced a 3% swing within a 4-hour candle, reaching a low of $65,800 before finding support. With global markets closed, it's still too early to predict a definitive direction for Bitcoin. However, in such situations, uncertainty about the future typically leads to risk aversion and a decline in assets like Bitcoin. If the market perceives Biden's withdrawal as increasing the likelihood of Trump's victory in the upcoming election, Bitcoin could adopt a bullish stance. Given that retail traders hold the smallest share of Bitcoin trades in the last three years, it remains to be seen whether institutional investors and ETFs will continue to support Bitcoin's price when global markets open tomorrow. If uncertainty persists, it could lead to a price drop that may continue until a new Democratic candidate is chosen.
Short
by Cryptowormshot
2
#TRU/USDT#TRU The price is moving within a bearish channel pattern on the 12-hour frame, which is a strong retracement pattern and was broken to the upside. We have a bounce from a major support area in green at 0.0900 We have a tendency to stabilize above the Moving Average 100 We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that supports the rise and gives greater momentum, and the price is based on it to rise after it was broken upward. Entry price is 0.1250 The first target is 0.1800 The second target is 0.2100 The third goal is 0.2472
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
Wait to scale-in at the edge of box of 4H chartTrump is lenient towards cryptocurrencies, and recently, due to Trump, there has been a significant surge, including Bitcoin. The daily chart seems to indicate a rebound for several more days. The 4-hour chart shows a consolidation within a range, with a high probability of a future upward breakout. The entry point could be at the bottom of the range if it breaks the support, or upon breaking through the top resistance of the range.
PEPPERSTONE:ETHUSDLong
by Quant_David