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ridethepig | Dollar into December📍 Dollar into December ... Here we are dealing with a sensitive situation, which we have discussed previously at earlier opportunities. One should not overlook the underlying strength of the dollar given it is the centrepiece of the currency board. After clearing the vaccine and all is roses newsflow, the next chapter of covid and risk is here into December - I am expecting dollar to find some short-term support, investors will take cover under the table while risk rushes into the room for the coming weeks. The manoeuvre is intended to provide a retrace from the impulsive leg down, but not too far. We must defend skilfully as sellers are already 'quite in love' with the dollar devaluation story. However, markets do not move in straight lines and some legs are worthy of participation. I personally think a pullback towards 94/95 before we can continue with artificial devaluation towards 80/75 in 2021. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:DXYLong
by ridethepig
9
Restraint at the highs📌 SPX has had its advance cut off; an attempt to cap it from the reckless advance allows the possibility of a panic blow which is decisive and impulsive in such situations, namely the invasion towards the pivot. This idea illustrates the stratagem of a major high against a 'positive' news flow. Since the Vol expansion is necessary for the defence of the highs, an exchange at 21/22 is the way we defend. You should memorise this move of forcing our opponent to make up their mind, after clearing the positivity newsflow around vaccine and etc we are going to have 'diversion' introduced. This should be considered playing against, contested elections and uncomfortable positioning from stimulus expectations leaves the entire board looking vulnerable. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ridethepig
13
USDCAD - Strength but not just yetWe have Monday as a new cycle so we could easily push into the middle of next week for the change in trend. At the moment, the Long is too obvious & with retail traders 75% Long, The price needs to drop to collect some more liquidity. Expect an extreme spike or a long candle that will scare most long positions. Last week saw Asset Managers start adding longs but Leveraged Funds adding a load of shorts. Take your time on the entry as it's the retail traders net Long that paint's a clear picture - who do the big boys sell to if all the little fish are already Long??? The Bias for this pair for institutional money is 85% CAD (AM) and 75% CAD for the (LF) Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
USDCHF - Drop to the zone and riseWith so many people now Long DXY, it's going to keep collecting liquidity for the sharp rise. It's now all about timing, Asset Managers and Leveraged funds are still short. Let's see what COT data shows tonight. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
ridethepig | NZDUSD Market Commentary 2020.11.25📍 My dear readers, it is clear what we are trying to achieve here.... a protection of the highs / resistance with initial targets at our centre / pivot and extension targets below at support. The control which belongs to buyers is blockaded and open to attack. It is expensive to maintain the highs; this means that the necessary pullback when energy exhausts is all too easy to ride. It appears quite appropriate to consider the Dollar selloff exhausted and an advance in DXY via extreme risk-off flows as investors look for cover under the table. Keeping a close eye on 0.70c as it turns out to be deceptive for buyers as the government is clearly feeling pressure from the RBNZ QE approach. Look to buy NZD but from cheaper levels, until then... looking to play the retrace lower. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
6
CONFIRM SHORT SPY Okay, So again I would like to emphasis here that, If you all are thinking this is breakout , NO IT IS NOT!!!! Volume on spy today was less than yesterday's volume that means dead cat bounce. Also comparing RSI with previous high and with such a move in day didn't gained much that means there was fight beat sellers and buyers. Market on close was in Imbalance on sell side with 400Million it's small but still it was on sell side. This is just the beginning .... My first target here is 350 followed by 342.... if supports that we can see small reversal.
AMEX:SPYShort
by STOCKBROS_95
6
Trump's Odds Drop to 33%, Easy 3x in 1 Month?Trump was diagnosed with COVID last night. His betting odds have dropped to under 34% which means you could easily triple your money if he wins. Chances are high (99%) that he will survive the infection. And chances are also very high that he will win the election. Many will say "look at the polls!" but as we know from the 2016 Wikileaks and election results, the polls are manipulated by oversampling democrats, and the mainstream media plays right into this bias: "I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling" wikileaks.org "Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win." NYT. November 8th, 2016. "Chance of winning: Hillary Clinton 71.4%. Donald Trump 28.6%." FiveThirtyEight. November 8th, 2016 "Clinton has 90 percent chance of winning" Reuters. November 7th, 2016. "In the four way race, Clinton tops Trump by a 45-43 percent margin. She was up by three points a week ago (44-41 percent) and by six in mid-October (45-39 percent)" Fox News. November 5th, 2016. "Bottom line: Using the Princeton Election Consortium’s methods, a less aggressive assumption (sigma=1.1%) leads to a Clinton win probability of 95%." Princeton University. November 6th, 2016 Obviously the mainstream media polls and election forecasting methodologies cannot be trusted, and are being heavily manipulated by the center-right and the left. I would bet that Trump's chances of winning are very high, and that his base is quite fired up for him. According to a recent Gallup poll 94% of republicans support the president and 39% of independents support him as well. According a recent ABC News poll, only 86% of democrats have a favorable view of Biden (independent results not available). From what I've personally seen it seems most democrats are only voting for Biden because he's "not Trump," which doesn't give him much momentum. Had the democrats nominated a far-left candidate like Bernie Sanders, the results would be much harder to predict. I think the democrats will become radicalized after this election and nominate a far-left candidate, and they will likely win the 2024 election. For now, the radicalized far-right Trump has much more momentum than the middle-of-the-road center-left Biden, and there's a very good risk/reward ratio on this bet. Also there's a chance Trump's betting odds get even lower the closer we get to the election, like it did in 2016, so it might be a good idea to save some money for that. There's obviously no guarantee that Trump will win but the risk to reward here seems very good. (BTW this is not a political statement, just simple observation. I will be voting for the Libertarian Party candidate. I don't support either authoritarian party.)
TLong
by Intuit
Potential GBPJPY ShortIT looks like a messy H&S pattern potentially. With a crazy rally over the last 24 hours, it could be setting up for an almighty drop. The Covid Vaccine is a few months away & other companies fell over at the next stages. UK still has Brexit to look forward to, Biden is pro Euro. So a few potential pitfalls for the UK. I think the rally was 100% down to selling off of the Yen and not buying of the Pound. Let's see - leave comments and thoughts below. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
USDJPY - Long comingCOT data (Leveraged Funds) have move positions long in this last week. Asset Managers are still predominantly short. But Daily, Weekly becoming exhausted. DXY strength down overall, but this would be a pullback in the shorter term. See Daily & weekly Situations below. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
1
DXY looks bullish on the monthlyIn this very simple chart you can see that DXY is holding support at the 92 level for few months now. Vertical lines are marking those areas where the stoch was below the 20 level and made a bullish cross. Looking at it I am bullish on the US dollar for the next 3-5 years, unless this 90-92 level gets broken. Can Biden's term be better for the mighty US $$$ than Trump's term? We'll see... Btw, if you look at the yearly chart the 21 EMA is at this same level, holding support.
TVC:DXYLong
by Crypto_Burger
S&P 500 Yearly Forecast (Nov 2020 - Nov 2021)S&P 500 Index (SPX) (November 18th 2020 through November 2021) Low: 3010.3 points High: 3876.6 - 3900 points There could be some great buying opportunities ahead of us in the coming year, can't wait to see what 2021 brings us. Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
TVC:SPXShort
by Hambooger
5
WHY I THINK GBP IS GONNA *PUMP* Hello traders! As I've been commenting on my last posts, I think the USD DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) is gonna go bearish again one of these days. After a short bullish momentum, with a clear 50% fibonacci retracement, the index is showing some exhaustion symptoms. Therefore, unless we see an unexpected scenario on the next US elections, the index will probably drop again. Here is when GBP comes out. The pair is shows some interesting bullish indicatiors. On the first hand, the sterling has been rejecting the 1.20 leve since 2017. This is translated on a decreasing of the volume and power of the bears. Also, EMA9 and MA20 on monthly, are converging to a bullish scenario. It is probably to see a range or short bearish scenario, but I reallty think that GBP us gonna pump on the upcoming months. The first target is to reach 1.40 on the firsts weeks of 2021. I'll be updating!
Long
by Ometrading