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USD/MXN Soars Above 20.81266 Amid Tariff TensionsThe USD/MXN pair has surged above 20.81266, marking its weakest level since March 2022. This sharp movement is driven by Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, which poses significant risks to Mexico's economy, particularly affecting the crucial auto sector. With the US accounting for over 83% of Mexico's exports, these tariffs could disrupt the trade balance and amplify peso volatility, leading to increased investor uncertainty and potential capital outflow. The Mexican peso has depreciated approximately 20% this year, compounded by concerns over fiscal expansion and a robust US dollar. Retaliatory tariff measures suggested by President Claudia Sheinbaum could further complicate the trade landscape, exacerbating tensions. Traders should closely monitor developments in US-Mexico trade policies and potential domestic policy responses in Mexico. Given the prevailing uncertainty, market participants may seek safer assets, which could further impact USD/MXN movements
by tastyfx
Brent - oil waiting for regional stability!Brent oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. At the bottom of the rising channel, we will look for positions to buy oil. In case of a valid failure of this channel, we can witness the continuation of the downward trend. U.S. President Joe Biden announced that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire. He expressed gratitude to French President Emmanuel Macron and emphasized that Israel did not initiate this war, nor were the Lebanese people seeking conflict. Biden stated that Israel has destroyed Hezbollah’s infrastructure in southern Lebanon but stressed that lasting security cannot be achieved solely on the battlefield. The ceasefire is set to take effect at 4 a.m. local time tomorrow, aiming for a permanent end to hostilities. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicted that Brent crude oil prices face short-term risks that could push them to around $80 per barrel in the first half of 2025, assuming Iranian oil supply drops by 1 million barrels per day due to stricter sanctions. In contrast, the bank expects medium-term risks to Brent prices to tilt downward due to high spare capacity in the market. Goldman Sachs also estimated that Brent crude prices could fall below $60 per barrel in 2026 if a 10% tariff is imposed or OPEC increases its supply in 2025. Separately, Bloomberg reported that China’s small and private refineries are paying higher prices for Iranian oil due to reduced shipments and fewer offers. These refineries have been purchasing light Iranian crude for December delivery at smaller discounts compared to ICE Brent benchmarks. Limited shipping availability and delays have constrained Iran’s oil exports to China. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, during a meeting with OPEC’s Secretary-General, stated that Russia intends to strengthen its cooperation with OPEC. Novak highlighted that the energy market remains under significant pressure, with price volatility being one of the key challenges. He stressed the importance of closer collaboration between Russia and OPEC to address these issues, asserting that joint efforts can contribute to greater stability in the energy market. Novak also revealed that Russia is preparing to lift its gasoline export ban, with the necessary documentation expected to be finalized soon, although no exact timeline was provided. He pointed to the market’s balance achieved through OPEC+ actions and quota implementation, emphasizing the importance of continued measures to ensure stability. According to the latest JODI data, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports increased by 80,000 barrels per day in September, reaching 5.75 million barrels per day, the highest level in three months. This rise in exports likely resulted from reduced direct crude oil consumption for power generation as the country’s hottest months came to an end. JODI data showed that direct crude burning fell by 296,000 barrels per day in September, reaching approximately 518,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, saw a slight decrease in oil production in September, down by 17,000 barrels per day to 8.98 million barrels per day. Refinery throughput in the country reached 2.756 million barrels per day in September, the highest in four months and 35,000 barrels per day higher than in August. This production level aligns with Saudi Arabia’s summer commitment to maintain output at “around 9 million barrels per day,” consistent with OPEC+ cuts and a voluntary reduction of 1 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ partners have postponed their planned production increases from December 2024 to January 2025. The group now plans to begin increasing supply in January, initially by 180,000 barrels per day for the first month. Saudi Arabia is expected to deliver less crude oil to China, the world’s largest oil importer, in December. Trade sources told Reuters last week that weak demand in China has prompted Saudi Arabia to reduce its shipments to the country.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
USD/CAD price action: Trump's tariffs and the loonieUSD/CAD is approaching 1.4180, its lowest since mid-2020, influenced by Trump's recent 25% tariff hike impacting Canadian exports like oil, gas, and vehicles. While these tariffs pose challenges, Canada's economy shows resilience with higher-than-expected inflation and strong employment data, reducing the likelihood of significant rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Concurrently, the US dollar strengthens, supported by anticipated policy changes and tariff impacts.
by tastyfx
NAS100 - Nasdaq will stabilize above 21 anytime?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index rises towards the specified supply zone, you can look for Nasdaq sell positions to target the bottom of the ascending channel. Nasdaq buying positions will be at the bottom of the channel and the demand zone after the continuation of the corrective movement The housing sector was in the spotlight last week. The market has regained attention following an unexpected surge in mortgage rates, which have risen by nearly 75 basis points since the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut during its September meeting. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for 30-year mortgages climbed to 6.8% in the week ending November 21, offsetting much of the reductions seen in August and September. Existing home sales increased by 3.4% in October, breaking a two-month decline. However, it’s important to note that October’s data largely reflects homebuying activity from late September, a period when mortgage rates were trending downward. Despite this rise, the annualized sales rate of 3.96 million units in October remains sluggish. By comparison, the 2021 average was about 6.1 million units, with current declines largely attributed to higher yields on mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Consumers remain relatively resilient, continuing to spend at a strong pace. October’s retail sales data exceeded expectations with a 0.4% increase, supported by upward revisions to previous figures. This trend indicates that households are entering the holiday season under favorable economic conditions. In the upcoming week, durable goods orders data is anticipated. This segment, particularly aircraft orders, has experienced significant volatility in recent months. Challenges in the aviation industry are among the main reasons for this instability. While strikes may have impacted production last month, Boeing data reveals that only 63 new aircraft orders were placed in October, roughly matching the prior month’s figure. As a result, conditions in October are expected to have stabilized somewhat. Overall, demand appears to be leveling out, yet uncertainties regarding corporate investment spending persist. Although borrowing costs and interest rates have been decreasing, the extent and intensity of these declines remain uncertain. Federal Reserve officials have recently acknowledged that, due to strong economic data and sticky inflation, rate cuts in the coming months are likely to proceed gradually and at a slower pace. Additionally, even though U.S. elections have concluded, it is still unclear which policies, particularly tariffs, will be implemented. This week, several regional indicators—such as the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index—will be released. Monitoring these data points could provide a clearer picture of the U.S. economy’s health and serve as leading indicators for assessing upcoming economic releases. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently indicated that both headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indexes are expected to rise from 2.1% to 2.3% and from 2.7% to 2.8%, respectively, in October. If these projections materialize, the Fed may still proceed with a rate cut in December. Should the PCE report fail to offer clear guidance on the Fed’s next move, investors will turn their attention to the minutes from the November monetary policy meeting, which will be released on the same day. Additionally, other critical data, such as personal income and spending, durable goods orders, and the second estimate of Q3 GDP growth, will be published on Wednesday. According to CME data, market participants estimate a 56% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting on December 18, while a 44% chance of holding rates steady is also considered. These probabilities could shift with the release of more data ahead of the meeting. Furthermore, the minutes from the November FOMC meeting are also expected this week.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
Bitcoin is at the end of a two-year uptrend1- Bitcoin is at the end of a two-year uptrend and the $110,000 range is the end of this trend. 2- The impact of Trump’s election on Bitcoin’s growth will be before he enters the White House. After that, Bitcoin will fall down to $26,000 for at least about 1.5 years. (Contrary to popular belief) 3- From mid-2026, Bitcoin will reach about $200,000 within 2 years. Current Bitcoin price is about $98800 @JalilRafieefard November 22, 2024
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by JalilRafieefard
120
WTI - oil on fire!WTI oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its downward channel. If the upward trend continues and the ceiling of the channel is broken, one can first look for positions to buy it and then look for positions to sell oil in the supply zone. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next positions to buy oil with the appropriate risk reward. Oil prices climbed as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated. Following Ukraine’s announcement that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile targeting the central city of Dnipro, Brent crude rose to $74 per barrel. Previously, Ukraine had primarily relied on long-range weaponry supplied by Western nations. If confirmed, this missile strike would mark the first use of such a weapon since its development during the Cold War era. In recent days, additional bullish signals for oil prices have emerged. Refinery product premiums relative to crude oil have reached multi-month highs. In the United States, as fuel producers along the coasts ramped up production to meet rising export demand, profit margins for converting crude oil into gasoline and diesel hit record levels. According to Reuters, OPEC+ is likely to maintain significant oil production cuts for an extended period due to weak global demand. Analysts and insiders suggest that the OPEC+ meeting in December will face major constraints in determining production policy. While increasing production amid weak demand could be risky, further cuts may prove challenging as some members push to raise output. OPEC+, which includes Russia and produces nearly half of the world’s oil, has repeatedly delayed its gradual production increase plans this year. Meanwhile, rising gas prices are creating tough challenges for European policymakers as they brace for a harsh winter. Javier Blas, a Bloomberg columnist, argues that Europe has yet to fully grasp the energy crisis stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He asserts that the continent has mistaken recent strategic successes for mere weather-related luck, but the situation has now deteriorated. This points to another winter of high gas and electricity prices, placing significant pressure on energy-intensive industries. Many large-scale manufacturers have announced plant closures and asset write-downs, while households face surging retail energy prices. This inflationary trend will add further complications for the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Wholesale gas prices in Europe have risen to €47 per megawatt-hour, twice the February lows and 130% above the 2010-2020 average. Wall Street has raised concerns that a second Trump presidency could negatively impact oil prices, arguing that producers might ramp up drilling and production before facing Biden-era regulatory pressures. However, another faction in Wall Street suggests this narrative is incomplete. Standard Chartered points out that the nature of U.S. shale oil production makes it difficult to sustain long-term supply increases. Unlike OPEC producers, whose output is often controlled by state-owned oil companies, U.S. production is dominated by several large corporations, independent producers, and private firms. This perspective aligns with Goldman Sachs’ analysis. In July, Goldman Sachs predicted that U.S. crude oil production would grow by 500,000 barrels per day this year, a slower pace compared to last year’s 1 million barrels per day increase. Nevertheless, the U.S. will account for 60% of non-OPEC supply growth, with the Permian Basin expected to grow by 340,000 barrels per day annually—lower than the initial forecast of 520,000 barrels per day made by Wall Street analysts.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ali_PSND
Alibaba - Trump Won't Beat This Stock!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) is bullish despite Trump's presidency: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Two months ago, Alibaba pumped 30% within a couple of days, perfectly following the resistance trendline breakout. So far we saw a rejection of the upper resistance level and it is quite likely that Alibaba will retest the breakout area. However, the underlying price action is still bullish. Levels to watch: $80, $115 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NYSE:BABALong
by basictradingtv
12
Bitcoin Breaks Record, Shrugs Off Risk-On Label Gold extended gains for a third consecutive session, crossing $2,650 per ounce, as investors sought safety following an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is also performing well and doesn't appear to be acting totally as a risk-on asset in this environment, surging to a fresh record high. President-elect Donald Trump’s administration is reportedly considering a dedicated cryptocurrency policy role within the White House, Bloomberg reported. Adding to Bitcoin's momentum, the Financial Times revealed that Trump Media and Technology Company is in advanced talks to acquire crypto trading platform Bakkt. Bitcoin remains above key technical levels, including the 50- and 100-day EMAs, while the RSI hit overbought territory at 80.
BLACKBULL:BTCUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Tesla - New All Time Highs With Trump!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) just broke above the last resistance level: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 With Trump winning the election and Elon Musk being a supporter of Trump, Tesla is rallying significantly. But looking at market structure, this rally was also expected, considering that Tesla just broke out of a triangle pattern. Now Tesla will soon create new all time highs. Levels to watch: $275, $410 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by basictradingtv
15
NZD/USD on strong downtrend amid USD strengthThe US dollar's recent surge, reaching around 106.5 post-election, impacts global markets and American consumers. Strong economic data and inflation pressures bolster the dollar, while Trump's tariffs could enhance its strength. Meanwhile, the NZD has dropped to 0.58574 against the USD, influenced by New Zealand's economic conditions and fluctuating commodity prices. As the yen and peso also weaken significantly, the dollar's future depends on unfolding policies and geopolitical events. Analysts foresee potential gains but caution against international retaliation.
by tastyfx
XRP - HYPER BULLISH CASE - CryptoManiac101In this updated chart, the projection highlights an exponential growth curve, modeling a highly optimistic hyper bullish case scenario for XRP. Let's begin? This projection suggests XRP could embark on a parabolic growth phase, potentially driven by significant catalysts such as regulatory clarity, market adoption and speculative demand. Bullish Case Extension: $3.50-$5.00: Earlier projections align with this level being the first target (previous all-time high and beyond). The chart and fractal suggests that XRP could go beyond $10.00-$25.00 in the mid to long term, potentially driven by mass adoption, speculation, and favorable macroeconomic conditions. The extended projection indicates that you see on the chart of $50.00-$100.00 could be a theoretical long-term ceiling under extreme bullish conditions, possibly dependent on XRP capturing a significant share of global cross-border payments or/and institutional investment. Exponential Growth Possibility: This kind of growth typically occurs during parabolic blow-off tops, similar to what Bitcoin and other altcoins have experienced in previous hyper cycles. Updated Bullish Case Targets Timeframe | Projected Price Range | Catalysts Short-Term | $1.20 - $3.50 | Breakout momentum, key technical resistance Mid-Term | $5.00 - $25.00 | Adoption growth, institutional involvement Long-Term | $50.00 - $100.00 | XRP as a global cross-border payment system Broader bearish trends in the cryptocurrency market could slow or reverse growth and these targets. Remember that this is not financial advise and is intended for entertainment purposes only.
POLONIEX:XRPUSDLong
by CryptoManiac101
2
Will we witness parity in EURUSD?EURUSD - Daily analysis and trading strategy. The new week begins with the G20 meeting in Brazil. It is possible to outline new directions for the development of the world, especially in the hotspots Ukraine and Israel. On Monday, the ECB's President Lagarde speech is expected, where it should become clear whether there will be a change in interest rate policy in Europe after the election of Trump. Lagarde is likely to hint at a cut in the key interest rate. The tariffs that the new team in the White House is expected to introduce to Europe and especially to its industrial part, such as Germany, are already having an impact. Factories will not be able to compete with Chinese and American goods. In addition, the market for goods from Europe is constantly shrinking, and the quality is falling. Currently, 41.5% of German companies report a lack of orders. This percentage will increase significantly in early 2025. A number of manufacturers from Europe are thinking about where to go. Possible locations are the United States, China, and possibly other countries such as Turkey and Southeast Asian countries. The euro has no chance in the near term. The probability of Euro/Dollar parity is very likely even before January 20, 2025 (Donald Trump's Inauguration). Therefore, our strategy remains to sell the euro with the aim of parity and down. If you are entering the market now, wait for the slight upward correction of 50-80 pips to re-open a short position. For this week, we expect the dollar to take a lead of 100-130 pips against the Euro.
Short
by World-Signals
1
Will We have Another Rate Cut In December? Hey Traders After this week's inflation data and the Fed meeting on Thursday the dollar steadied at a one year-peak, set for a strong week as markets dialed back bets on lower U.S interest rates. The Fed appeared less dovish based on strong U.S inflation readings which added to the dollar strength. However, under the Trump administration, inflation is expected to go up as a result of their expansionary policies. During the Fed meeting on Thursday, Fed chair Jerome Powel said that due to the resilience of the U.S economy they have more time to consider cutting rates. This comment reduced expectations for a 25 basis point cut in December. Strong U.S inflation data and less dovish signals from the Fed sparked doubts over lower interest rates. As it stands, Gold set to lose over 4% this week with its worst performance since June 2021. Bitcoin fell from its near record highs as optimism over a Trump presidency oiled, while broader risk appetite was hit by increased uncertainty over U.S interest rates.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by DeanMuller
USDCAD - CAD look at the oil market!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. Due to the location of this currency pair at the ceiling of the channel, you can save a part of your purchase position. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions. Monetary Policy in Canada • Interest Rate Cuts: Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December (previous forecast: 25 basis points). It is expected that this downward trend will continue, reaching a terminal rate of 2.25% by June 2025 (previous forecast: 2.50%). Oil Developments in the U.S. • Crude Oil Production: U.S. crude oil production has reached 13.23 million barrels per day this year, slightly higher than the previous figure of 13.22 million. For 2024, production is forecasted at 13.53 million barrels per day (a minor decrease from the previous forecast of 13.54 million barrels). • Crude Oil Prices: The average price of Brent oil in 2024 is projected at $80.95 per barrel (slightly higher than the previous forecast of $80.89). For 2025, the average is expected to decline to $76.06 per barrel (previous forecast: $77.59). The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is estimated at $77 per barrel in 2024 and $71.6 in 2025, slightly below earlier projections. Oil Demand: • U.S. oil demand for 2024 and 2025 is estimated at 20.3 million and 20.5 million barrels per day, unchanged from previous forecasts. OPEC and Production Adjustments: • Lower Global Demand Growth Forecasts: OPEC has reduced its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 to 1.82 and 1.54 million barrels per day, respectively (previous forecasts: 1.93 and 1.64 million). • Increased OPEC Production: OPEC’s average crude production in October rose to 26. 53 million barrels per day, a 466,000-barrel increase from September, primarily due to higher output from Libya. Geopolitical Issues and Iran’s Oil Policies • Iran’s Response to Sanctions: Iran’s oil minister announced that plans have been developed to maintain stable oil exports to counter potential policies from Donald Trump’s administration. • Negotiations Between Iran and the U.S.: Iranian sources reported that Tehran postponed an attack on Israel after Trump’s election to facilitate potential negotiations. Messages conveyed through Baghdad included recommendations to avoid escalating tensions and create an opportunity for talks. Developments in Lebanon and Israel • Ceasefire negotiations in Lebanon are nearing conclusion. Israeli sources have confirmed alignment between the U.S. and Israel on the ceasefire agreement. However, Lebanon’s situation remains complex, with ongoing discussions between Hezbollah, the parliament speaker, the prime minister, and U.S. officials.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Is the Trump Trade Fading? The sugar high from Trump’s victory may be wearing off in a few areas. Tesla, once a post-election favorite after Elon Musk’s support of Trump’s campaign, has now reversed direction. Reports suggest that Republicans will end the $7,500 EV tax credit—a move that’s sent Rivian tumbling 9%, while Tesla is down nearly 4%. Shares of Trump Media & Technology slid 8% today. But being a meme stock, analysis here won't tell us much. In a notable signal, the CFO and two other insiders sold over $16 million of stock in the week following the election. Yet, the U.S. dollar remains resilient, possibly buoyed by the Cabinet picks coming out of the Trump administration. Marco Rubio’s nomination as Secretary of State suggests a tough stance on China. Known for his anti-communist positions and support for Hong Kong’s democracy movement, Rubio has advocated for tighter export controls on U.S. technology and visa sanctions against Chinese officials, hinting at a policy that may go well beyond tariffs.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Bitcoin Targets $100K with Potential to Reach $120KIt appears that Bitcoin has broken above a strong resistance level, which is now acting as support. Based on the chart, the price has surged significantly without any retest of this new support level. This could indicate strong bullish momentum, as the price hasn't returned to test the previous resistance. With this upward momentum, Bitcoin may be on a path towards the next major milestone of $100,000. If this psychological level is surpassed, we could see an extended target of $120,000, marking a significant phase of price discovery in this bullish trend. However, traders should remain cautious of potential corrections or consolidation phases along the way
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JoeSignals
XAUUSD - which way will gold go after CPI!?Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of upward correction due to today's economic data, we can see supply zones and sell within those zones with appropriate risk reward. The continuation of the downward movement of gold has led to the visibility of the demand zone and it is possible to look for buying positions. UBS analysts are optimistic about a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve despite inflation concerns. Recent inflation data has not been enough to change UBS's view on further rate cuts by the FOMC. UBS refers to the following points: • Economic data indicates a stronger than expected economy. • Concerns about inflation remain. • The expectations of the market are moving towards the reduction of the interest rate by the Federal Reserve. • Federal Reserve officials see the current rate as restrictive but are trying to balance employment and inflation goals. • A major inflationary shock is needed to change the policy landscape. The consensus seems to be that once Trump takes office, he will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to boost growth and deliver on his economic promises. This was indeed the context for the questions asked of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week. He was asked if he would resign if pressured by the Trump administration. Powell stated that he will not resign and that the president does not have such authority. This assumption partly goes back to the first term of Trump's presidency, when he repeatedly called for easing policies of the Federal Reserve and sometimes criticized Powell. But the difference between today and 2018 and 2019 is that inflation was much lower at that time. Most importantly, voters showed their anger at the high cost of living by ousting Democrats from the White House and the Senate. NBC exit polls in 10 key states found that three-quarters of voters rated inflation as a moderate or severe problem in the past year, and more supported Trump. "It makes more sense for Trump 2.0 to bear some of the economic slack (and blame it on Biden and Harris) to curb inflation," Stephen Jenn, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Capital, wrote in a note. "I don't agree at all that Trump 2.0 risks increasing inflation." Meanwhile, China's central bank stopped buying gold for reserves for the sixth consecutive month in October, according to official data. China's gold reserves reached 72.8 million troy ounces at the end of last month. However, the value of gold reserves rose to $199.06 billion from $191.47 billion at the end of September. The World Gold Council's report predicts that gold purchases by global central banks, which increased in 2022 and 2023, will decline in 2024, although they will remain above pre-2022 levels. This issue is partly due to the suspension of 18-month purchases of the People's Bank of China since May.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND