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ridethepig | Consumer Staples🛒 Consumer staples is dealing with a remarkable situation on the macro front which we have discussed at earlier opportunities (see ALPHA PROTOCOL: SEEKING IMMEDIATE EXTRACTION). One should be wary of the immediate risk for a waterfall as consumer staples hang onto the highs by a fingernail. After completing the 5 wave sequence to the topside, clearly the end of the road is approaching for this economic cycle and we must decline into 2021/2022 in order to untangle the flows for 2022 -> 2030. Time to start paying close attention for early signs of a turn. Risk is threatening to breakdown in an impulsive fashion, our opponents are attempting to prevent the breakdown, but with stimulus delayed till after the elections the protective move is out of the question this week. Strong support from a technical perspective is found at 53/52 and 48/47.
AMEX:XLPShort
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Dollar into the elections📌 This will act as the start of the next 'novel' on dollar: the first of course will serve as our map into the next 13 days. We must review the Medium and Long term charts to understand the art of what we are tracking, and the contact between Dollar and safe-haven flows as we enter into another expansion of volatility. The follow diagram portrays the position from earlier in the year, momentum arose with Covid and to such an extent that a rise in USD is no longer possible without venom for EM FX in particular. We have also been able to construct examples of the flows in main course dishes like EURUSD: In a nutshell, what we are tracking here is the C leg in a retrace wave, inside a more structural, longer term decline in the USD. A complex multi dimension environment, my short-term models are indicating of USD inflows as a protection for election risk and as an example of the ultimate safe haven with lockdowns & covid chapter II. The key question which we will answer as we move along will be if this is infact a retrace inside a sustained decline, or the start of a brand new uptrend in USD. In this scenario, a test of 97.5x would be enough to build confidence in the view. Recommend layering these in G10 and EM FX as we go for all those following the live calls. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:DXYLong
by ridethepig
27
ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 2020.10.28📍 I am trying something out here with some faster flow charts. This is of similar nature to the preparations and strategy notes we made in EURUSD: In order to liberate the highs in USDCAD, buyers must take out the Tokyo defence. They are hoping to prevent the breakup for as long as possible, the annoying notion for sellers is Canada cases accelerating quickly and lockdowns chapter II entering into play. We also have managed to provoke the bull into attack from the Oil side. The supply side outweighs the demand side and will only continue to widen as national lockdowns enter back into play. The moves lower in Oil are also playable of course. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming and if these shorter-term flow charts are becoming more useful for those trading the faster flows.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | JPY beyond the elections🔸 USDJPY - into the elections Sellers have the move and already played the exchange towards 100 on the initial covid chapter I. They are aiming for the ideal Yearly closing position (the frontal attack against any laggards). I managed to carry out the deeply laid plan (a serious contender for chart of the year) at the beginning and by not being as familiar as I was with the well-known rules on Tradingview. Moreover, I know no other ending in which this precise striving of inflation is more clearly illustrated than in the diagram that follows: Inflation expectations proceed as follows: as dismal Covid data floods the wires => stimulus then becomes a big part of that story 📍 There is no amount of printing that can counter deflation. As globalisation contracts, it creates a deflationary tsunami on the underlying capital formation. We then have to factor in bottlenecks on the supply side from lockdowns, agricultural shortages and etc which create inflationary pressures. The key idea is that they can simply clear the way for the Suganomics/Abenomics with a different pair of Calvin Kleins and prevent the breakdown of 100 is truly the only way to save Japan, because the MT and LT outlooks look awful there. In the more immediate term, the second covid chapter and election protection may keep JPY in demand and lower-time frame rallies will still attract selling interest. Here tracking 105.8x as resistance for another attempt of 104.1x and 100.0x before the king starts its journey. How keenly the speculators are at outguessing the demise of Japan. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
9
What to anticipate ahead of the US elections Volatility 2020📌 US Elections have been and are always expected to be an extremely volatile event worldwide. Elections, similar to other political or banking sector events, are notably treated by market participants with anticipation and speculation. 📍 Hence as the US election looms, today's Chart is not in regards to the outcome but in regards to current markets positioning just a week prior to the election as well as their future response to each possible outcome. 📍 While we have been facing an overall weak Dollar in the second half of the year, the proclivity for capital being safe harboured in US Treasuries means this is hinged on the global growth outlook establishing a sustainable improving trend, and that in turn may hinge on the world getting through the Covid crisis. However, the upcoming US election presents risks too, particularly given the perceived chance of the election being contested. 📍 Markets are anticipating another US fiscal package, although the timing remains uncertain, and the size and scope of it will be dependent on the election result. Wall Street narratives suggest that US stock markets are pricing in a blue wave on November 3, with Democrats sweeping the House, Senate and Presidency, which would result in many trillions of Dollars in fiscal support. 📍 So far in October Biden's lead in the polls has deducted the risk of a contested outcome and hence supported the US Equity market to recover since September (after the 1st debate), but also drove the risk sensitive Yen. This comes in contrast with the historical reaction of Stock markets in prior elections. 📍 Historically, the stock market slows down and shows a weaker performance in the period leading up to an election, according to a study from US Bank. On average, the equity market showed a less than 6% gain during election years compared with an 8.5% gain in any other given year.
TVC:DXY
by Ridethemacro
VIX Approximations Update (Oct 26th-Dec 2nd 2020)S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) (October 26th through December 2nd 2020) Just making an update to a previous VIX forecast that I see going outside my last expected ranges, I felt it necessary when checking on SPX trends, especially with yesterday's start to a drop in E-mini futures. See below for previous guesses: Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
CBOE:VIX
by Hambooger
Descent in the DJI (October 26th-Nov 9th 2020)Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) (October 26th through November 9th 2020) Low: 27,843.7 points High: 28,374.2 points May have been way too ambitious with my last DJI projection, have now since adjusted for short term just to see where we are for my own learning purposes. Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
TVC:DJIShort
by Hambooger
Descent in the SPX (October 26th-November 9th 2020)S&P 500 Index (SPX) (October 26th through November 9th 2020) Low: 3362.9 points High: 3455 points How E-mini futures market started off yesterday: My previous SPX forecast: My adjustments today are more to correct the trajectory and duration I was originally expecting. Will be interesting to see how this spooky week turns out. Time for temporary bloodbath just before halloween? ;) Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
TVC:SPXShort
by Hambooger
Short GBPJPYBrexit and Covid 2.0. No real need to say much else. However, we are in a Daily wave 4-5 of an Elliott wave. We should see a little pullback and a bigger drop. COT data also major short the GBP and net long JPY. There were key turning points in the Cycle indicator on the 5th, 10th and 15th - next is the 23rd, to the 29th. Let's see where next. Suprised if it gets to 137.85 now (low volume node) given the other data. Just waiting for UK Govt to come out with a crazy statement and GBP will sink. Good luck. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
3