Trump
Likely Bearish Scenario for the following monthsIf we're before a yet unconfirmed bearish phase, this is a likely scenario.
You can trade within the bearish channel.
A minimal market run-up usually always follow the days prior a new POTUS election.
I think we can expect markets continue to fall whether Trump or Biden get elected.
It will only stop falling until long-term Bitcoin channel bottoms are hit.
This is hit or miss, don't take this a financial advice.
I post to see if my prediction ability is on point or too far off.
Cheers.-
RidetheMacro| BTCUSD Market commentary 2020.09.24 📉🔺 Bitcoin has fallen to a fresh weekly trading low, following another day of heavy technical selling in the S&P 500 and other US equity markets. Technical selling was also a factor in the recent decline, following a breakout below a symmetrical triangle pattern. BTCUSD bulls now need to defend the $10,300 level to encourage a rally back towards the $10,500 resistance area.
📌 The BTCUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the $10,500 level, key resistance is found at the $11,100 and the $11,400 levels.
If the BTCUSD pair trades below the $10,500 level, sellers may test the $10,200 and $9,500 levels.
⚠ Concerning the USD, the Chair of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Secretary will be testifying before Congress at 3pm London time.
Until the Next Time.🤗
Ride the Macro
ridethepig | Dollar Strategy Note📌 A good time to review and update our main battleground
Another moment here which is going to force decision, buyers are needing to complete at a minimum their ABC targets while the extension targets still remain locked. While the other side of the coin comes from those looking to play the long term structural decline in the dollar, and sellers are flirting to react sharply at the highs in the range with a plan to defend resistance.
How did we end up here ❓
It boils down to this long-term macro chart which looked very promising for sellers:
Medium term :
The further we zoom in, the more details we can add...
To add more context, since 2018, we have been tracking the highs in dollar and we shall have to content ourselves with the "throwback" chart which briefly explains the truth behind the technical opening and structural decline.
What does this all mean ❓
We are trading inside an impulsive macro leg to the downside with MT and LT targets in the DXY located at 88.2x and 74.8x respectively. This does not rule out a pullbacks/retracement, and it would be perfectly valid for buyers to break the chop to the topside only to receive another hammer later in the year / early 2021. A continuation of dollar strength and breakout of the range would put pressure on the soft hand sellers that are unaware of the larger forces in play, capital flows are not linear in direction.
From a technical perspective we can play the breakup with a momentum gambit, taking 94 will open 94.6x and 94.8x for a quick visit. Anything else beyond that is currently locked for buyers. If you are a seller here you are looking to sell as cheaply as possible and fading a break of 94 handle is in play.
Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
The Walmart and the Tik Tok news could be a perfect mixThe daily chart under review has a whole lot going on, Wmt has been in its broader uptrend since its corona sell off/ rebound. This one shows alot of the breakdowns of price action. Lets put the past 6 weeks under review. The price action has ended in a seemingly cup and handle formation, typically which take around 6 weeks to form, this puts it at the right place at the right time if past trends continue. Currently nearing oversold on the RSI on a higher price level than it ever has been, gives an idea that it has earned strength in this area, and can be due for a push higher with good volume. If this one goes any lower, Id expect a bounce off the 50 day moving average. Good timing for tik tok news as this may be what WMT needs to push higher. Posted are resistance and support levels, with the purple levels signifying a change in action and possible pivot zones.
GBPUSD SHORTS - Let me run you through it- UK Interest rates to take a negative hit
- Corrective double top on the weekly resistance
- Daily Evening Star
-I n a short term down trend within an overall uptrend
- I want to see a break of the 8H counter trend line
- Price ranging within a daily mother candle
- Targets 1.27700
Is it the end of Stocks "Trump-bubble"?Stocks were pushed by Trump's fed bzzzz machine and grown to record 3588 value, but in the end even that bubble dumped. We can see big volume picking up the dips here - signal that SP500 may consolidate or even bounce back to ~3444-3500. I think Oil prices will give more realistic picture of what to expect, so stocks are secondary here.
Week chart show great volume on retest of 3350 support. If drop below it we will see a bloody waterfall.
BTCUSDT | Bitcoin has crashed but is the growth phase finished?Overview
Bitcoin broke up through $12 000 but is now crashing. Gold set a new all-time high but has since pulled back. The S&P 500 keeps on setting high after high. Still, all of these assets have one thing in common: they’re all at risk for a sizable correction, primarily due to the dark cloud hanging over the coming United States 2020 Presidential election. However such explanation can describe short-term effect on Bitcoin's price action but what about long-term perspective?
Fractals
Bitcoin global ATH $19 798 was reached on December 17th in 2017. Afterwards the whole cryptocurrency industry entered a consolidation phase decreasing until April 2nd in 2018 when a new growth stage started. After 3 months of ascending trend Bitcoin made a local peak of $13 970 on June 26th where consolidation started again making a Fractal pattern.
Why are these Fractal patterns so important now?
Bitcoin price action tried to consolidate at previously broken resistance levels to stop crashing during the first Fractal in 2018. Retrospectively we can see it failed after several attempts reaching major support which was also rejected thus it resulted in a dramatic crash to base level of $3 156. Currently we see the very similar situation:
- Local support of $11 400 was broken
- Previously broken resistance level of $10 400 level is being tested but has low probability to withstand
Based on the Pitchfork and trend analysis we see a high probability of breaking down the level and further retest of major support level. Which will confirm repeating Fractal pattern and will signal for descending trend
Conclusion
Bitcoin is at decisive moment. The long-term price action development depends on whether BTC succeed to consolidate above $10 400 level or not. Most traders from SkyRock Signals think Bitcoin will break the level within next days because of bearish fundamental background, negative results of trend and technical indicators analyses. The scenario will bring the leading cryptocurrency to Major support near with $8 893 level. On a contrast with the first Fractal this level is close to fundamental production value which increase chances of bouncing back. However it is hard to accurately forecast what will happen when Bitcoin touches major Support because Fractal patterns do not guarantee retrospective will happen again. The most important now is to set tight risk management settings to your cryptocurrency assets positions until decisive moment is passed
Stay safe and confident. We will update this trading idea so stay tuned
Best regard,
SkyRock Signals team
Long position - AUDUSDAfter the breakout and re-test of the structure, the market formed another structure. There were fundamentals involved, such as the independence day in the USA. Considering a a positive PMI next week, I'll be expecting a breakout of the last high (0.69520) and a retest. The pull-back is where I'll be placing my position.
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Donald's VaseIt seems as if something fundamentally changed in 2018, beginning a multi-year period of volatility.
From a WashPost article about the period: "DEC. 4, 2018
Markets tumbled after Trump tweeted “I am a Tariff Man” and the Trump administration backed off earlier claims of a trade-war truce with China." (www.washingtonpost.com)