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ELECTION DROPI changed my price target on SPY to ~$367. Yesterdays price action was way too strong into the close for this market to drop yet. Nobody cared about Powells speech. Nobody cares about EVERY stock in the market being overvalued by a minimum of 2x. We are continuing the ride up the wall of worry. IWM still has not completed its 100% retrace which WILL happen. I am noticing stocks all over the board developing extremely bearish patterns and parabolic moves to the moon. Post election, if trump wins, I anticipate the market to continue this ridiculous pattern. Biden wins, i expect a minimum of a 20% drop in the market.
AMEX:SPY
by ncontelmo
ridethepig | DXY Market Commentary 2020.06.15A quick update here for those tracking the entire swing in Dollar: It would be more natural to develop in this structure with a test of 99, since the impulsive sequence (if it is such) must eventually test 92.92 to complete the move. To keep up the pressure on USD the social focus will instead switch towards Atlanta and health focus on virus cases which sadly are shooting higher once more. To exploit the USD "weakness" the positions are more of one: 📍For those tracking Short-term flows: 📍 For those tracking the Long-term Macro chart: As usual thanks all for keeping the likes, comments, charts and questions rolling!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
3
EUR USD Daily if price rejects the zone - sell.Here is the EUR chart only - note these setups are to show where if price rejects we will look short - same information below as previous post - incase traders see this instead. We have our take on the EUR USD - a lot of speculators have seen the Euro as the stronger of the currencies against the USD which has been seen as out of favour - but this is all part of the plan from the FED and US government in order to see the dollar as good for import and export . Is this all part of the money printing plan for the future to de-value the dollar? or a huge mistake causing an sovereign debt crisis? or just part of supply and demand? Let's see the Data: COT Data: EUR AVG Long Short Total long% Short % Net Change Avg_13 180,947 86,109 267,056 68% 32% 94,837 2,910 Avg_20 171,218 105,719 276,937 63% 37% 65,499 9,843 Avg_130 169,626 177,152 346,778 51% 49% -7,256 3,155 Avg_50 169,349 175,216 344,565 51% 49% -5,867 3,381 USD AVG Long Short Total long% Short % Net Change Avg_13 18,057 12,046 30,554 60% 40% 6,462 -1,569 Avg_20 19,538 12,046 31,584 62% 38% 7,491 -958 AVG 50 30,399 11,917 42,316 70% 30% 18,481 -742 Avg_130 31,126 12,171 43,297 70% 30% 18,955 -672 Technicals: Monthly Fibonacci retracement drawn and shows price will either bounce and reject 61.8% Fibonacci retrace a break to the upside will test the 70.5% or hit the 1.21 zone - Note the monthly trendline from using the Ray - has proved the constant lower highs and lower lows printed in the cycles. The lowest low of 1.066 has shown a good retest zone for targets. Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 27,000 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crsis - printing all this money is just beyond words. With having a weak dollar and inflation created - the dollar will be out of favour. Euro second wave & quarantine rules for tourists outside EU and now Spain for UK. Brexit talks are still in focus as not much separates a no deal scenario. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital