Get started

Trump

GBP/USD extends losses as US inflation risesThe British pound continues to lose ground and is down for a fourth straight trading day. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2709, down 0.18% on the day. Earlier, the pound dropped below the 1.27 line for the first time since Aug. 8. US inflation has been on a prolonged downswing but that streak has ended. After decelerating for six straight months, headline CPI for October rose to 2.6% y/y, up from 2.4% in September. The US dollar has responded with modest gains against the major currencies. Monthly, headline CPI was unchanged at 0.2%, in line with expectations. The core rate was unchanged in October, at 3.3% annually and 0.3% monthly, which matched expectations. The jump in inflation may not have been a surprise, but market rate-cut odds have jumped sharply. Just a day ago, the markets had priced in a 58% probability of a cut in December, but this has surged to 82% currently, according to CME’s FedWatch. Inflation is largely contained but by no means defeated. The Federal Reserve has waged a tough battle and is no mood to see inflation rebound. The next inflation report will be released just one week ahead of the Dec. 18 rate meeting and if inflation again moves higher, it’s possible that the Fed will respond with an oversized 50-basis point cut. Another headache for the Federal Reserve could be the Trump election win, with the Republicans winning the Senate and likely the House of Representatives. The incoming Trump administration represents an upside risk to inflation, as President-elect Trump has promised sweeping tariffs on imports, notably China and Europe. If Trump makes good on his tariff threat, goods imported into the US will become more expensive which would boost inflation. That could complicate the Fed’s plans to continue trimming rates in 2025. There is resistance at 1.2781 and 1.2843 1.2685 and 1.2683 are the next support levels
by OANDA
XAUUSD - CPI CPI CPI!The world's largest gold-backed mutual fund posted its biggest weekly outflows in more than two years last week. Donald Trump's resounding victory in the election caused traders to take their profits. The SPDR fund (GLD) saw more than $1 billion in outflows, the fund's biggest weekly outflow since July 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price of gold decreased by 1.9% during the same period. Total gold ETF holdings fell 0.4 percent, the second straight weekly decline. Investors usually look for safe assets in times of political and economic uncertainty. They sought the safe haven of gold last month as the US presidential election was expected to be competitive. But as Trump swept to victory after capturing key battleground states and Republicans took control of the Senate, the decisive outcome prompted investors to exit their positions to preserve their gains. Trump's victory also boosted the value of the U.S. dollar and the stock market, which was a negative for gold as it made the bullion less attractive to investors holding other currencies. Bitcoin, for example, has been boosted by President-elect Donald Trump's embrace of the digital asset and the prospect of a Congress with pro-crypto lawmakers. Gold traders continued to take profits on Monday, with prices hitting one-month lows and shares of gold mining companies falling. Key economic events to watch include today's release of the US net Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, which the Fed will be watching closely to assess whether consumer inflation remains on track to reach Is it at the 2% level or not?
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Copper - The negative impact of Trump's victory on commoditiesCopper is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. If copper falls due to the release of today's economic data, we can see demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend starts and the bottom of the channel is maintained, it is possible to sell copper in the supply zones in the short term. After Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election and the positive reaction from markets, investors are refocusing on economic data. Trump’s historic return to the White House was met with strong market responses, with stocks and Bitcoin reaching new highs and the U.S. dollar hitting a four-month peak. Treasury yields also saw significant increases. It’s worth noting that yields have been rising since late September as investors anticipated fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve over the next two to three years. Now, Trump’s victory has diminished hopes for rate cuts. If Trump follows through on his promises to cut taxes and increase tariffs, these measures could drive prices up by boosting domestic demand and raising import costs. In this scenario, the Federal Reserve may have to maintain tight monetary policy for a longer period than current expectations. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release today, will provide the first economic clues post-election for rate cut forecasts. The annual CPI rate fell to 2.4% in September but is expected to rise to 2.5% in October. Monthly CPI is projected at 0.2%, unchanged from the previous month, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to increase from 3.3% to 3.4% in October. In China, senior lawmakers approved a plan to shift local government debt to the official balance sheet, allowing Beijing to better assist local governments in managing debt challenges. The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress also approved a plan to increase the local debt ceiling. According to Mr. Xu, head of the National People’s Congress Budget Committee, China intends to raise the local government debt cap by 6 trillion yuan. China’s exports have also surged, as Beijing braces for Trump’s potential tariff threats. Chinese factories have ramped up production to ship goods to major export markets before any new tariffs are imposed. Trump’s election win has intensified tariff concerns among Chinese officials and factory owners. Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers have demanded more detailed information on advanced chip-making equipment sales to China by major manufacturers, reflecting growing tensions between the superpowers and concerns about potential military applications. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has also informed several Chinese clients that it is suspending production of AI and high-performance computing chips to comply with U.S. export control laws. On the other hand, Commerzbank predicts the potential for further gains in the U.S. dollar is limited, and that Trump’s macroeconomic policies may be less impactful than anticipated. While Trump’s policies are inflationary, the effects are likely to be contained, meaning the Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND
GBPAUD: Australia will continue its economic growth?!The GBPAUD is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of upward correction, we can see the supply zone and sell within that zone with appropriate risk reward. The breaking of the upward trend line will pave the way for this currency pair to fall to the demand zone. In this demand zone we can open GBPAUD buy positions. The Fitch rating agency has reaffirmed Australia’s AAA credit rating with a stable outlook, even as it highlighted the country’s higher debt levels compared to similarly rated peers. Fitch stated that Australia remains committed to fiscal sustainability rules, which have contributed to nearly 30 years of economic expansion before the pandemic. Jim Chalmers, Australia’s Treasurer, warned that a potential victory for Donald Trump in the U.S. elections could create short-term economic pressures for Australia, manifesting as lower production and increased inflationary pressures. Chalmers also mentioned that Australia is prepared to face potential challenges from a Trump administration. Chalmers, revealing Treasury’s modeling results that took a Trump victory into account, indicated that there could be a slight decrease in output and additional price pressures. However, the characteristics of Australia’s economy provide it a relative advantage compared to other countries. Meanwhile, Barclays has revised its forecast and now expects the Bank of England (BOE) to keep the bank rate unchanged in December. This change is due to BOE’s more cautious tone and its emphasis on uncertainty and gradual policy moves. Barclays also anticipates that the BOE will reduce interest rates in several 25-basis-point increments over the next year, ultimately bringing the terminal rate to 3.50%. Bloomberg reported that Rachel Reeves, the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, is facing serious challenges just 10 days after presenting her first budget. Rising borrowing costs and weaker economic growth have strained her £9.9 billion fiscal space set aside for her “stability” rule, which mandates that day-to-day expenses should be covered by taxes by 2029-30. Reeves now risks falling short of the Labour Party’s election promise to hold only one fiscal event per year and may need to secure additional funding before the 2025 budget.
Short
by Ali_PSND
THE BULLS OF BITCOIN [TRUMP+ELON] We're coming out of our corrective pattern with the chance to break into a new ATH once break our ascending triangle. This pattern is often bullish but with CME futures gap in play we can still see another correction before we're off to the 2nd phase of our pattern. Keep an eye on the altcoins and notice the money flow cycle. > > as we make our correction or we see a continuation with our ELLIOT WAVE THEORY . As we enter Q4 we can see people selling for losses or taking profits as we continue to crash upwards into 2025 with interest rates projected to fall in Dec. Buy. Hold. Realize your profits once your PT's are hit. With Trump taking office along with Department of Government Efficiency The digital gold rush begins now.
Long
by isaiahescobarrr
Presidential cycle. Will the crossing of RUT and SPX be repeatedDuring the Presidential Cycle is possible to verify that both indexes make peaks and troughs by the same time with similar moves. By early 2016, the indexes followed the same movement by roughly three months, after that SP500 and Russell2000 made a new high just before the elections. The prices continues to rise until the pandemic. By early March 2020, SPX crosses above RTU and it was above until a little before Biden election, thereafter RUT crossed again making a new high two months later SP500 also made a new high. By early January 2024, SPX crossed definitely RUT with SPX already making a new high. So following the history after the elections is time to RUT to cross above the SPX line as well as to reach another higher high(??)
TVC:RUT
by AFCapital21
Trump Media on the Move: Will We See $62 or a Bigger Reset?Alright, trading family, let’s talk about what’s brewing with Trump Media Group (DJT). Here’s what I’m seeing: 1️⃣ Scenario 1: If we close above $34.52 on the 4-hour chart, we could see a strong push up to $42, $51, $62, and maybe beyond. 2️⃣ Scenario 2: A pullback to $28.94–$28 could set the stage for a bounce back up to those same zones. 3️⃣ Scenario 3: If we break below $25.41, we might head down to the $17–$20 range before finding support and potentially pushing back up. Stay patient, let the price action guide you, and remember—it’s all about riding the waves the market gives you. Always trade what you see, not what you think! Mindbloome Trading/ Kris
NASDAQ:DJT
by Mindbloome-Trading
TSLA: My Trade of the YearTSLA was my trade of the year… filled with frustrations, irritations, and annoyances. We hit 260-270 three times without pushing higher, and three times I didn’t sell. There was an upward gap to be filled around 289—mission accomplished. Then, on the 3D chart, there was this huge resistance, the red box, which was finally broken through. I just sold the remainder of my TSLA shares, accumulated heavily since this spring. Massive accumulation. These last shares had a PNL of +98%. Simply mind-blowing.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Maximus20000
Cardano Founder A Potential Crypto Advisor to TrumpThe cryptocurrency world is buzzing with speculation about the potential appointment of Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson as a crypto advisor to the next US administration in 2025. This news has sparked excitement among ADA holders and crypto enthusiasts alike, with many wondering if this could trigger a significant bull run for the Cardano token (ADA). Hoskinson's Background and Vision Charles Hoskinson, a prominent figure in the crypto space, is known for his co-founding role in Ethereum and his subsequent creation of Cardano. He is a vocal advocate for blockchain technology and its potential to revolutionize various industries. Hoskinson's vision for Cardano is to create a sustainable and scalable blockchain platform that can support a wide range of decentralized applications (dApps). Potential Impact on Cardano (ADA) If Hoskinson were to become a crypto advisor to the next US administration, it could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Cardano. Here are some potential scenarios: • Increased Regulatory Clarity: Hoskinson's influence could lead to more favorable cryptocurrency regulations in the US. Clearer regulations would reduce uncertainty and attract more institutional investors to the market, potentially boosting the price of ADA. • Enhanced Adoption of Cardano: Hoskinson's position could help accelerate the adoption of Cardano's blockchain technology. Governments and businesses may be more inclined to explore the potential of Cardano for various use cases, such as supply chain management, voting systems, and financial services. This increased adoption could drive demand for ADA and push its price higher. • Positive Sentiment and Market Momentum: Hoskinson's appointment would likely generate positive sentiment and excitement around Cardano. This could lead to a surge in buying pressure, driving the price of ADA upwards. Additionally, it could attract new investors to the Cardano ecosystem, further fueling the price rally. ADA Price Prediction: Could It Reach $5? While it's difficult to predict the exact price of ADA, the potential positive impact of Hoskinson's appointment could certainly contribute to a significant price increase. However, reaching $5 would require a combination of favorable factors, including: • Continued Development and Innovation: Cardano's team needs to deliver on its development roadmap and introduce innovative features to attract developers and users. • Positive Market Sentiment: A sustained bullish market sentiment for cryptocurrencies would be beneficial for ADA's price. • Increased Institutional Adoption: Growing interest from institutional investors would provide significant support for the price of ADA. It's important to note that price predictions are speculative and subject to market volatility. While Hoskinson's appointment could be a major catalyst for ADA, other factors such as broader market trends, regulatory developments, and technical analysis will also play a crucial role in determining the price of ADA. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Long
by bryandowningqln
Dollar long to short (A controversial idea)It is no surprise that we have seen an influx of buyers in the dollar market since september when the news about Trump running for the election for a second time built alot of trust in the dollar. However, I don't believe this will last for very long. Market open we will see either one of two scenarios play out... scenario A: price will push up slightly causing a further BOS to the upside and taking ASH liquidity before then retracing into the 2H demand in order to mitigate the weekly supply deeper. Scenario B: Price will drop taking out the buyers from the 2H demand as this area is not yet validated by a structural break, price will then fill the 8H IMB and continue its push upwards into the weekly supply which is further validated against my XAU/USD breakdown. In conclusion, if not this week then within the next coming weeks we will see price react from this weekly supply or the weekly IMB above in order to continue in its overall downtrend. REMEMBER all it takes for the DXY to continue dropping is a major news event
TVC:DXYLong
by JamelCapital
XAU/USD to continue dropping?From both technical and fundamental analysis I believe we should be seeing the beginning of a gold drop. Gold has been nothing but bullish with extreme euphoric movement. Following Donald Trumps win in the American election we can expect the dollar to begin its bullish ascent meaning that its time for the XAU/USD to finally start its descent. from my charts we can see that I predict a slight bullish move from the market open reacting of an 8H Imbalance taking Asian high liquidity from the upside and reacting from another 8H IMB to ultimately continue in its downtrend at least until the daily zone that caused a previous break of structure to the upside.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by JamelCapital
Lunar 2024: The Volatile Dragon Favors the Loud Rooster!🐲 Welcoming 2024: The Volatile Dragon Favors the Loud Rooster 🍊📢 🌕🧧 Happy New Year Wishes: Celebrating the Year of the Wood Dragon with Our Asian Friends 🎋✨ As we usher in the New Year, I extend my heartiest greetings and warmest wishes to our Asian friends. 🎊 May this Year of the Wood Dragon bring you abundant health, happiness, and prosperity. Let the lucky number 8 pave your path with fortune, and red envelopes fill your days with joy and luck. 🐉🍀 FXPROFESSOR's Prescience vs. Biden's Election Mode Bravado (fail!) 🔮💼 Kicking off the new Dragon year was President Joe Biden with a tweet that sparked discussions—complete with laser eyes and a confident assertion. But let's set the record straight: it was the FXPROFESSOR's sharp analysis here on TradingView that predicted the climb of Bitcoin with uncanny accuracy. Remember the post from January 12, 2023? It wasn't just drawn up; it was prophesied. While Biden may be in full election mode, trying to score points with the crypto crowd, it's the charts that tell the true tale. Yes, SP500 at AtH, dolalr strong, economy strong and inflation better but we are all aware that situation is not really good (Ukraine, immigration, war in Middle East, etc etc) As for Bitcoin: it should had been already much higher Mr President! We don't buy this, sorry! 📢Biden's tweet: twitter.com 🐉Professor's Prophecy in January 2023 with BTC at 18k breakout based on predicting the fundamentals that followed (rates, inflation, election mode, ETF approval): (click on play!🐉) Rooster's Rally in the Dragon's Year: Trump's Potential Political Resurgence 📣🍊 2024’s lunar calendar bestows favor upon the Rooster, an emblem of outspokenness and assurance. In a twist of fate, this bodes well for the audacious Donald Trump. The year of the Dragon favors the Rooster, and Trump's resemblance to the Rooster—both in spirit and, as we'll see in a shared link, in imagery—is uncanny. Will the stars align for his political comeback? The markets watch with bated breath, pondering the impact of his potential return. Trump is the Rooster (God help us all): globalnews.ca and www.bbc.com Volatile Fire of the Dragon: Charting the Course 🐲📈 The Wood Dragon heralds a year of market ebbs and flows, demanding our keenest analytical prowess and foresight. In Forex, the British Pound against the Japanese Yen—aptly nicknamed 'the Dragon'—serves as a perfect metaphor for the expected volatility. This year more than ever, we must clutch our charts tightly and trust in the insights that have guided us through tumultuous times. Let's dive into this year with the knowledge that our astrological and economic journey will be as intertwined as ever. Here's to a year where our trading decisions are as informed as they are inspired, and where our discussions are as robust as the markets we navigate. And don't be mistaken: 1. The Charts will show us the way just like they did in 2023 (click on play...) 2. Politicians are dirty people, 99% of the time. I support nobody, not Trump nor sleepy Joe Bye-Biden. I wish the US could have had a normal human being for a president like they did for so many decades and not this bipolar shit-show....sorry! One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Long
by FX_Professor
U.S. Elections: From Bullets to Green Candles🇺🇸 U.S. Elections: From Bullets to Green Candles 💡🌐 With Kamala Harris and Donald Trump both embracing pro-crypto stances, the upcoming elections are set to pivot towards crypto discussions. Moving away from controversies like the assassination attempt on Trump, the focus now is on who can best integrate crypto into America's future. Trump's bold statement about potentially using Bitcoin to back the U.S. dollar has sparked significant interest and debate. Bullish Election Impact on Crypto Both candidates are increasingly engaging with the crypto sector. Kamala is considering attending the Bitcoin 2024 conference, while Trump is expected to deliver a historic message at the same event. This shift signifies a potential future where crypto plays a central role in America's economic strategy. With the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates, following the trend of other central banks globally, the financial landscape could be set for significant changes. Bullish again Previous Predictions and Market Impact In January 2023, I accurately predicted a strong Bitcoin entry point at $17,000, emphasizing inflation, interest rates, and solid fundamentals. This proved crucial for significant gains. 🌐 By February 2024, I predicted Trump's resilience amidst pressure, highlighting his favored status as "the loud rooster," and he indeed remained a prominent figure. My analysis of the geopolitical landscape was spot on, with Biden stepping down, leaving Harris to face the new favorite: The Rooster Trump. 🌐 Technical Analysis and Projections The chart shows a new nice flag, indicating potential significant upward movement. Expect big green candles, possibly pushing Bitcoin to $100,000 or even $160,000, influenced by the election dynamics. These bullish patterns are supported by strong fundamentals and increasing institutional interest. Political Influence on Market Sentiment The political climate has always had a profound impact on market sentiment. Trump's potential plan to use Bitcoin to back the U.S. dollar could revolutionize the financial landscape, driving significant market momentum. This unprecedented move might not only stabilize Bitcoin's value but also cement its status as a legitimate reserve asset. Future Outlook and Strategic Implications Looking ahead, the integration of crypto policies by either candidate could define America's financial future. Harris might continue the current administration's regulatory path, while Trump’s approach could be more radical, potentially transforming the U.S. dollar into a Bitcoin-backed currency. Investors should stay informed and prepared for rapid market changes. The anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. add another layer of complexity and opportunity, as they could stimulate the economy and potentially bolster the crypto market further. Let's hope for democracy and peace: no more bullets, big green candles. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 A bit of fun: 🏳️‍🌈Ka'mala (not Kama'la) Harris identifies as a she/her crypto enthousiast who keeps saying ''what can be unburdened by what has been" 🏴‍☠️ Trump has been dodging bullets like Neo in the Matrix , yelling 'FIGHT' seconds after being shot! Some serious Cowboy stuff! Who do you prefer and why? Let me know in the comments.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
1
Politics vs Profits | The US elections & Crypto Harris, Trump, or Crypto ? Only One Goes Brrrr ! 1/ The crypto market typically dips ahead of US elections In 2016, there was a 10% dip, in 2020, a 6% decline, and so far in 2024, a 6% decrease. However, these drops aren't unusual; they can happen without clear triggers on any given day or week. So attributing extra significance to the current dip due to election is overblown it’s just business as usual in crypto 2/ The election results will trigger either a market boom or bust Markets crave certainty over specific candidates. Once the election is over, investors can look ahead and allocate accordingly. In the grand scheme, Bitcoin and the wider crypto market don’t care who sits in the Oval Office. Whether it’s a red, blue, or mixed government, historically, crypto trends upward over time. 3/ Trump/Harris will be terrible for the economy While Republicans and Democrats have vast differences (more so now than ever), unity isn’t our forte. How can we bring the nation together? Maybe start with a common interest and go from there One thing’s certain, both parties have an affinity for money printing , While it’s a headache for the US’s debt situation, it benefits crypto.Why? Because a share of that newly minted money typically flows into crypto assets, which have limited or predictable inflation. In essence, money printing devalues the US dollar but bolsters the value of scarce assets (like crypto) over time.Regardless of who wins, the money printer is expected to stay active. While election may provide market clarity, it’s not a sure thing. Close elections can take days to finalize. So, if you feel like panicking, just remember this: Zoom out → stay calm → remember…In the long run, crypto tends to prevail. November is off to a roaring start with several significant market events – and that’s just in the first week! But before we look ahead, let’s review October to see where we stand: 1/ October Recap Expectations were high for ‘Moontober,’ and it delivered (though gains were modest). October saw: - $ BTC up 11%, with the broader crypto market up 10% - US Bitcoin ETFs purchased 5.83 times more CRYPTOCAP:BTC than was mined in October. This demand and limited supply helped push the total crypto market cap out of an 8 month descending trend, signaling a potential reversal. 2/ Macro Outlook Now, on to November. This week features two major macro events: - US Elections – Tuesday, Nov 5th - Rate Cuts – Thursday, Nov 7th Markets expect a 0.25% rate cut. Though smaller than September’s 0.50% cut, it could ease market pressure.Lower borrowing costs reduce debt servicing expenses, freeing up cash for spending and potentially boosting both the economy and crypto markets. The bonus? Historically, Bitcoin’s average return in November is +43% If this trend holds, we could see CRYPTOCAP:BTC hit $100k by month’s end! Cross your fingers, toes, and eyes! 3/ Token Unlocks October had $5.4B worth of token unlocks, creating potential sell pressure. Thankfully, November’s unlocks are lighter at $2.6B, which may limit that pressure. 4/ Earnings Reports This week brings earnings from: - Franklin Templeton (managers of the AMEX:EZBC Bitcoin ETF) - Arm (semiconductor architecture designers) - Qualcomm (wireless tech products) - Sony (self-explanatory) But November 20th is the main event, with Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) – the AI powerhouse – reporting earnings.That’s November in a nutshell. We’ll be here daily with updates as events unfold
Long
by moonypto
10
4 Winning Years Ahead for Traders Under TrumpOn November 5, 2024, the markets made it loud and clear—they’re excited about Donald J. Trump’s return to office. Stocks, the dollar, and other key assets all responded with strong moves that reflect investor confidence in what his policies might bring. Compare this to the last few years under Biden, and the difference is striking. The market barely budged during Biden’s presidency; even when he contracted COVID-19, it was business as usual. With Trump back, though, there’s an undeniable surge of optimism. Let’s look at what’s happening across the major assets and what it could mean for us traders in the days ahead. S&P 500 (SPX) The S&P 500 spiked from $5,704 to $6,018 on election night—a powerful rally that signals investor optimism. It seems the market is embracing Trump’s expected focus on tax cuts and pro-business policies. This kind of jump doesn’t happen without a reason; investors are clearly betting that Trump’s return will be good for corporate America and, by extension, for the economy. Gold (XAU/USD) In times of uncertainty, gold usually rallies as investors look for safe havens. But on election night, we saw the opposite: XAU/USD dropped from $2,750 to $2,643 per troy ounce. This decline tells us that investors feel less inclined to hedge their bets with gold, opting instead for assets tied to economic growth. When people pull out of safe havens, it's often a sign they’re feeling pretty good about what’s ahead. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) The dollar had its own rally, with the DXY climbing from 103.3 to 105.4. This spike reflects confidence in the U.S. economy’s potential under Trump’s leadership. With the dollar gaining strength, it’s clear that investors expect strong economic fundamentals and possibly higher interest rates—both of which could keep the dollar in demand. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) The Dow also rallied, jumping from $41,649 to $44,173. This boost is especially interesting because it reflects optimism in sectors like manufacturing, energy, and infrastructure—industries Trump has supported in the past. Investors are likely betting on policy moves that could provide a lift to U.S. industries, potentially driving corporate profits higher. WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Looking forward, I’m expecting WTI prices to come under pressure as Trump likely revisits his focus on domestic oil production. If he revives the “drill, baby, drill” approach, we could see supply levels increase, which would weigh on prices. This potential shift in energy policy is something to keep an eye on, as it could create fresh trading opportunities. The Big Picture From stocks to the dollar, the market’s reaction seems to signal that Trump’s return is seen as positive for growth and stability. Reflecting on his previous term, I remember trading seemed almost simpler—beyond economic reports, following Trump’s statements (especially on Twitter) often gave insight into market sentiment. We might be looking at a similar environment now. Final Thoughts for Traders Trump’s re-election sets the stage for market dynamics we’ve seen before, with a familiar blend of optimism and volatility. For traders, this could mean more straightforward strategies, particularly by keeping an eye on policy shifts and economic indicators. With Trump’s leadership back in play, I believe the next four years could be some of the best trading years we’ve seen. Whether you’re in stocks, commodities, or forex, it’s clear the market is responding—and as traders, there’s a lot we can take away from that.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldCartel
27
A capture of inflation, dilution and stimulus /2024As we see by the chart, we had a series of events mostly around mega-stimulus for Covid and a massive dilution of currency as triggering events. Inflation rose and is now back down close to the desirable 2% inflation. We don't want prices to go back to where they were, that is deflation and is not healthy for an economy. We want prices to stay near the same year after year with modest inflation. When inflation rises too fast, we increase interest rates to slow down spending, to reduce inflation. The best we can do is work on wage growth to accommodate the inflation from our past years while maintaining modest inflation. At 2.4% inflation currently, there really is pretty much nothing to fix anymore, we just need to keep it around where it is, a little lower really and work on modest wage growth. Looking at this data, it really looks like the vast majority of the culpability of that inflation we had came from 2020, one of the single worst years financially as a country with inflation starting to rise immediately in 2021, and exacerbated some in 2021. Looking at this chart, there is a tangible possibility that we see >10% inflation by 2027 Here is the M2 money supply chart:
ECONOMICS:USIRYYEducation
by EncryptShawn