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ridethepig | Dollar FocusUntil this advanced coronavirus move was played, the flow had been relatively straight-forward, a smooth transition of the Titanic turning was more an ideal than reality. This corresponds to the process I have remarked on, that the US face a choice between a weaker USD or a weaker Equity market. The lack of restraint from Powell gives way to a mechanical swing towards the 74 handle. So much for the strategic and theoretical manoeuvre when a full blown demand and supply shock storms into play. The practical value of the spike in USD makes things a lot easier to trade in US 2's 5's curve as you can see the recession is not a matter of if but when: The Longer term flows here will carry us towards 50 over a 5 wave sequence, those who follow waves will know the technical target is now exposed: Consumer Staples is showing signs of topping: While Claims show signs of forming a floor: Naturally it is all very well to aim for the 75 handle in DXY, driving buyers all the way back, but one must not go so far as to go overboard and intoxicate our strategic execution. As a whole, the defence is being carried out with insufficient knowledge as US virus numbers are only going to tick higher. Now comes a breakthrough, Fed are funding the Whitehouse which logically comes from having a mandate to keep Equities higher. There is nowhere to hide, a really difficult environment to trade you will say. Excellent understanding of the macro flows and drivers in play are required. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the comments with your charts and questions below!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
4
Bitcoin update: Part 6I've updated my analysis by making minor changes such as removing irrelevant trend lines and highlighting more important aspects such as the overall Cup and Handle pattern and converting all previous supports(in green) to current resistance levels(in red). I've also labeled the effect of the corona virus as the Elliot Wave pattern and the Head and Shoulders pattern. Last week I predicted 7600.00, however after a short pause at that level, Bitcoin went on to plunge to 6000.00. I believe that after a short correction by means of a return to one of the above resistance levels, Bitcoin will reach the 4800.00 level. If you think that this is a big request, don't act shocked when the markets rattle unexpectedly again. Good luck and follow me for more! Twitter: @AadielJordan
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn4565572
S&P-500On March 17-18, there will be another FED meeting and the interest rate may be lowered, but if they don't reduce it the markets will be hurt. They don't have much space now at 1% and the fourth rate cut will lead to zero-zero or even negative. Soon the presidential election, the correlation is 100% if the candidate wants to be re-elected and there has been a recession in the financial markets during this time, the president has never been re-elected in conditions like this. Mr. Trump in one of his main speeches said: "buy shares". He constantly has commented on the market and in the end, Trump will approach the election with a negative economic market condition. I think it will harm his chance to be re-elected president again. When he was in Europe, he said he liked negative rates. Mr. Trump tweeted when Obama was still president that if some president lets Dow Jones drop over 1,000 points happen, you had to shove him in a gun and shoot him in space. Now the Dow Jones drops 1,000 points every day. The market isn't feverish now because of the coronavirus, the markets aren't looking at the virus anymore, everybody's focusing on the election. Biden said he'd take Michelle Obama in the team. But it's not gonna help much as I think it will. Michael Bloomberg withdrew his candidacy, Elizabeth Warren withdrew her too. In my opinion, he'd be a good rival against Mr. Trump, the other candidates are losing. Let's see how it goes, I am not a politician and I am not a US resident. That's my subjective opinion. You can also see the expectations of market participants on the future president at this platform ftx.com And on this chart Best regards EXCAVO
TVC:SPX
by EXCAVO
26
EUR/USD: weekly (T)Hi Guys, please find above an update of the following idea posted a year ago on March 9, 2019 Medium-Term narrative: since Trump has been elected US President at the end of 2016 the dollar weakened a lot at the beginning of his term to regain strenght before 2020 US Presidential Elections. Long-Term narrative: I have some ideas but I need to outline them on another chart otherwise it may become too messy. But I think this is enough in view of fortcoming US Presidential Elections at the end of 2020. Please share your views or comment and if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
by cozzamara
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.02.26On the risk side, US10Y bouncing from the lows while Global Equities attempt to form a s/t floor. Central Bank co-ordinated policy is only a matter of time, markets have forced FED, ECB, BOC, BOJ, BOE and everything in-between to kiss the hand and keep rate cuts on the table. JPY is itching to resume dancing the same rhythm but given USD demand via month end rebalancing there will be room to sell USDJPY from cheaper levels later in the week. Look to fade any rallies into 110.7x with initial targets located at 110.3x and 109.8x. Invalidation of the view comes with a breach of 111.2x. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
2