Get started

Trump

US records, Trump irritates Sino & Johnson is ready to celebrateMost Americans, as well as financial markets, received the day off from work on Thursday, therefore, we can focus on other financial markets. In today's review, we will focus on the oil market. Recall that next week the OPEC meeting should be held, which could potentially change the existing balance of forces in the oil market. But we will talk about this meeting later. Now let's focus on the current state of affairs. Oil growth last week was highly dependent on optimistic news about the progress in negotiations between the US and China. Accordingly, traders worked out a possible increase in demand in the oil market. But, as we already noted in the previous reviews, the markets are already tired of promises and waiting for results. Accordingly, oil growth stopped. The participants in the oil market can be understood, especially considering that Trump has nevertheless signed a law to support protesters in Hong Kong. Potentially, this could cause a new round of escalation in relations between the USA and China and another breakdown of the negotiation process between the countries. At the same time, statistics from the US come out bearish. First of all, it is about the USA reaching a new record in oil production: 12.9 million barrels per day. The result was an increase in US oil reserves, which in aggregate puts pressure on oil quotes and not only does not allow the asset to grow but also pulls it down. Our position in oil is as follows: we look for points for selling the asset on the intraday basis and sell oil in the medium term (current prices are quite favourable for this). But lets back to other news and markets. According to a YouGov poll, conservatives will win and get the vast majority in the December 12 elections in the UK. This means that Johnson will have every opportunity to ratify his Brexit deal. Thus, the probability of exit without a deal has become even more insignificant. For the pound, this is undoubtedly good news. Recall that its growth potential is far from exhausted. We are talking about 500-1000 points of the possible growth of GBPUSD. So we continue to recommend buying a pair.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Good news from US, dollar & new threatsA lot of macroeconomic statistics was published yesterday, however, it did not lead to significant movements. GDP was revised upwards 2.1% instead of preliminary 1.9%, and durable goods orders exceeded the most optimistic expectations (+ 0.6% m / m instead of -0.9% m / m). Well, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the United States so generally reached the lowest level since 1973. However, people were not in a hurry to buy a dollar in the foreign exchange market. Even against the backdrop of news that another progress has been made in the negotiation process between the US and China: Trump said that phase 1 of the trade transaction is close to its completion. The lack of reaction to such a clear fundamental positive, in our opinion, is very symptomatic. Accordingly, we are not going to revise our recommendation to “sell the dollar”. On the contrary, thanks to yesterday's data, sale for the dollar against the euro and the Japanese yen became simply excellent as well as Gold. So yesterday's dollar appreciation is an opportunity, not a threat. We continue to monitor analysts predicting an imminent crisis. We are not even interested in the time frame as much as the reasons. So far, our collection has the collapse of the CLO market, the growth of staff salaries and the fall in corporate profits because of this, huge debts both at the state and corporate levels, the collapse of price bubbles in the stock and bond markets, trade wars, and growing inequality in world, the end of the business cycle. So today in our piggy bank replenishment: a crisis in the banking system of China. According to the Bank of China, more than half of Chinese banks may collapse if the economic situation in the country worsens further. And this is tens of trillions of dollars. For reference: the size of China's banking system is about $ 40 trillion, which is two times bibber than the US banking system. That is the problem. So we find another confirmation of our basic investment strategy: to shorten the US stock market while buying safe-haven assets (gold and Japanese yen). Well, in conclusion, we note that the spring is now compressed to its limit (for example, the volatility of the euro has reached a historic low).
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: Trump Signs HK Bills, Denting Trade Optimism AGAIN!In today’s market insights I talk about Trump’s latest move to support HK protesters by signing two bills, denting optimism around the recent trade war optimism! The shift in sentiment was expected but how risk vs havens performed may seem confusing to some when looking at CADJPY and AUDCHF. Here I explain how the yen and franc are likely to perform against high beta commodity currencies Canadian dollar and Swiss Franc! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
3
EU: Weekly long setupEUR/USD Trade setup update: After a 20 pip move up yesterday, anda 20 pip move down today, it's tuff to remain patient with no price action. However, what I've seen is that thursday/Fridays are usually the busiest during the weeks for FX markets right now so don't give up this week just yet! Patience is key this week. I want to make sure it's obvious that when we don't publish trades there's a reason. We don't publish trades to force you to begin to trade when the markets opportunities are ready for execution, and not just trades that are placed simply because it's "tuesday". Not taking trades is just as an important as to knowing how to trade in the first place. Staying out of the market when it's not moving. The Euro has tapped our zone where we're looking to buy, however we;re looking to buy at support and test the bottom of 1.099 where we will look at specific longs at this price.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn3442968
18
China makes concessions, Johnson's manifesto & Societe forecastsOn Monday markets were waiting for the successful completion of the first phase of trade negotiations between the US and China. This time, a positive signal was China's willingness to increase the punishment for violating intellectual property rights. China's regular violations of these rights that particularly irritated the United States and largely hindered negotiation progress. Information about the victory of the Democrats in Hong Kong also helped to relieve tension in the financial markets, as there is hope that this conflict can be resolved peacefully. Against the backdrop of such news, the decline in safe-haven assets seemed quite understandable on Monday. However, while we do not see any reason for global repositioning, we will use this decline in gold and the Japanese yen as an opportunity to buy safe-haven assets cheaper. Moreover, there is a “Trump factor”, which literally can turn the situation upside down. For example, sign the bill on human rights and democracy in Hong Kong or blame China for intransigence, etc. In addition, the global crisis is still potential. For example, analysts at Societe Generale expect a recession in the spring of next year. According to experts of the bank, the next recession in the United States will be triggered by a sharp reduction in company profits, which, in turn, will be caused by the rapid acceleration of labour costs. Yesterday was pretty successful for the British pound. The fact is that on Sunday, Boris Johnson has launched his party’s manifesto, in which he promised before December 25 to submit to the parliament an agreement on Brexit, agreed in October with the EU. According to surveys, the Conservative Party is now supported by 42% of voters, and the Labor Party - 29%. That is, with such a scenario, there is no risk of Britain leaving the EU without a deal, but the growth potential of the pound is far huge. So we continue to give preference to purchases of the pound, but until the announcement of the election results, we do not expect strong directional movements in the pound and recommend adhering to oscillatory trading, that is, buy the pound from hourly oversold zones and sell from hourly overbought zones. As for our other recommendations, today we will sell a pair of USDJPY, buy EURUSD, and also sell oil.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
What to expect this week: main events and our recommendationsThe volatility in the foreign exchange market reached its minimum in recent years. The VIX Fear Index was also confidently at the bottom. The absence of significant events entailed the absence of strong movements in the foreign exchange market. Friday perhaps was the exception. Another weak statistics from the Eurozone and the UK contributed to the activation of sellers of the euro and the pound. The main concern for the markets was the adoption by the US Congress of an act in support of protesters in Hong Kong. China reacted extremely painfully to this, considering it was interference in its internal affairs. And since the first phase of the trade deal between the US and China is already at the finish line, this could potentially lead to the disruption of the deal. But on Friday, Trump said he would veto the bill. In the USA, in the meantime, the impeachment process continues, which in itself is a kind of guarantee against a sharp rise in the dollar value in the foreign exchange market. So, despite the activation of buyers of the dollar on Friday and sellers of safe-haven assets against the background of such news, we still see no reason to revise our trading preferences. And on Monday we will buy the pound and the euro against the US dollar, and we will also buy gold and the Japanese yen. Rising oil prices stopped on Friday, as we expected, our recommendation to sell oil has become even more relevant. Do not forget to sell the Russian ruble as well. As for the upcoming week, it has a chance to become low-volatility. Data on US GDP is formally extremely important, but it will be a revised value, that is, the probability of surprise appear is low.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: Weekend Trade News Likely to Affect SPX, DXY!In today’s marketinsights video recording, I talk about SPX and DXY . SPX takes a breather from all-time highs offering some pocket-relief to short-term bulls, however, with weekend trade headline news the rally could continue higher. The US index looks bid too despite the medium-term bearishness as the economy performs incredibly well, supporting the dollar. From a technical perspective, there's more room to the upside for both. The index, however, will most likely have a harder trip moving higher as its upside is limited. Unless if of course a sharp bullish move occurs, taking out breakeven stops and then reversing rapidly to everyone's surprise. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Orbex
XAU LONG IDEAPotential reaction off of an institutional play with the yellow zone highlighted, we may see this move happen for multiple reasons such as also being in my kill zone area which is between 62%-88%. This trade may happen before market closes however most likely next week let keep close eyes on it and if you see an opening take it. This is a nice 3:1 ratio trade that can pay more than it can hurt, always take partials out of your trade along the way, especially if you are new to the market and get into moments where you question yourself if you should close your trade or not,.. thats when you know you SHOULD be taking partials and most certainly moving your stop loss into profit accordingly . The link in my bio i explain more about how i view the market for its opportunities. Learn-Interact-Trade Lit Capital
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LitCap-Vell
How to make money on a pound and what to do with oilThe situation in Hong Kong continues to escalate. Trump promises to sign a scandalous law to support demonstrators, which is extremely describing China. And although the US and China declare progress in the negotiations, in such conditions, it can break at any moment. So we continue to look for points for purchases of gold and the Japanese yen. As for the other news - the impeachment process continues in the USA, the UK is preparing for the elections and Saudi Arabia for the IPO Saudi Aramco. In light of the upcoming elections and the uncertainty with its outcome, we can’t count on the growth or decline of the pound in the next couple of weeks. But on the other hand, understanding this opens the doors for aggressive intraday trading without explicit preferences. So, we are armed with hourly oscillators and actively trade GBPUSD. Oil has grown quite well over the past couple of days amid information about rising oil reserves in the US, as well as increased tensions in the Middle East. These events are not one of those that can significantly change the balance of power in the market. So Friday looks like a great day for oil sales. First of all, we are waiting for business activity indices to be published in the Eurozone, the UK and the USA. Also, pay attention to retail sales in Canada, as well as the speech of the new head of the ECB Lagarde. Given that markets are now very sensitive to macroeconomic statistics, even relatively minor data can trigger a surge in volatility. Well, from the new head of the ECB, her vision of monetary policy in the Eurozone has long been expected.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx