Has The Trump Rally Come To An End?Trendline was broken 2 weeks ago and price suggests more downside ahead.
Trumprally
DOW JONES: Ever The Jewel In The CrownAs expected, the Dow, when compared with the SPX and the NASDAQ to name two, presents the most bullish of the bunch. The recent drop was severe, but no long-term damage has been done. And while the SP500 and NASDAQ closed red last week, the DJIA closed green. This is telling us that though profit-taking has set in, bullish fundamentals underpin this market.
Although it was a large drop, we have only tested the breakout line of the 2018 Symmetrical Triangle, which is a texbook move. It would be very bullish to ride this line down, making new lows, without a breakdown.
Of course, it is too early to say if this would happen, yet it remains on the table. The possibility of making new lows cannot be ruled out, especially in light of the incoming elections.
Another, more extreme possibility is that we whipsaw down, taking out the 2018 lows, and immediately return on an upward trajectory. This would also be a textbook whipsaw, as it would take out both the previous highs and lows of 2018, confusing everyone.
As always, we need to create the technical conditions that convert the consensus into bearishness.
I remain in a long-term long position, with funds ready to buy on further drops. The purple area is important - as long as we CLOSE above there, my bullishness remains. I am long-term bullish, short-term neutral.
SP 500: Possible CradleLast week, prices were well sold at the 21 EMA. This indicates that the bears still have control.
An interesting possibility is that prices could hit a Cradle point formed by a confluence of the Triangle boundaries. This point is also reinforced as the lower boundary of a possible larger channel. This mythical point in space and time could present as very powerful buying opportunity. For now, the burden is on the bulls to prove themselves.
With the US elections hanging in the balance, we should see players take sides in the lead-up. A choppy trend could develop which will either be confirmed or negated by the outcome.
I'm bullish-biased with a short-term neutral/bearish outlook.
S&P 500: May You Live In Interesting TimesThe SPXUSD (the perpetual contract of the SP 500) is somewhat of an indicator for domestic US investor sentiment. In comparison, I consider the DJIA to be an indicator of foreign capital flows to the US.
The US appears to be triggered by the nomination of a Supreme Court judge, or rather, the slander and innuendo associated with the nomination... and despite all the howling and nashing of teeth, the S&P500 goes nowhere but up, for slander and innuendo cannot be traded.
I mention this because US political instability is a fundamental headwind. The Supreme Court nomination is a flashpoint that reveals the deep polarization, unfocused discontent, and indoctrination in the US. Meaning, if Kavanaugh is appointed, investor sentiment will be maintained, as it represents a win for Trump, and a win for Trump is a win for business. But, a lot of people will not accept this nomination, and it will only deepen political contention. Any threat to Trump may impact the markets negatively.
But for now, the markets are optimistic. Was today the dip to buy? It was trendline and horizontal confluence. I would like to see the lower parallels tested for an even better buy entry.
As traders, the best we can do is do what needs to be done, when it needs to be done. In a bull market, that means buying the dip. If the lower parallel is taken out on a closing basis, I will naturally readjust. For now, no damage has been done.
I find it troubling that daily, weekly and monthly stock/rsi are flashing bearish divergence. Bear div can always be negated, but this needs to be monitored.
In short, stay long. Buy dips. Re-adjust if levels are taken out to the downside.
Seems to be bullishHad some shorts open for a while, but it looks like were are back on track for another 6-18 months of bull market.
As always, I have stop loss orders on all positions -5% of their current position. May leave my Short open on $EZA though.
10 year note , are we looking at a short term correction?Normally movement in the price of oil leads a move in the price of the 10 year note. The blue line is USOIL and it showed me a change in behavior that I couldn't trade. So I looked for shorts in the notes after It made a high .
I am now expecting lower highs given how investors are long SPX after the dip
Happy new year! Another year of the trump bubble.Tops of all crashes since 1987 have all topped at fibonachi time ratios. The next one is not until the end of 2019 so 2018 will be another good year to be bullish on the DOW. the main risk will be the 27000 resistance so you could take profit there and waiting for a breakout before buying up again (see another chart on my account for bearish view from 27000). The clone also seems to line up very nicely on the chart and obeys the time and price fib levels, use it as a guide. The elliott wave count suggests that this is the final wave, but since waves 1 and 3 were not extended then wave 5 should be extended. The final take profit will be at around 50,000 (probably sooner) but that will not happen for a few years.
Keep buying pullbacks and adding to your position until you are driving a Lamborghini on the moon... and be aware that this could crash big when it does end because we are buying into a bubble, so be careful.
DOW Trend AnalysisSimilar motivation from my previous post. Dow's grow has had considerably more vertical growth in the Trump Rally. I attempted to outline my support level at a 20% market "correction".
OB on the Monthly - $SPYNever forget; the markets can stay overbought for a looooong time! See left side of the chart! #TrumpRally
revised chart, same targetsI think the bulls will be able to get a double bottom with Thursdays low, and then push forward to 2500. I would expect a pullback to the bottom of the bull channel at this stage. 2500 is a big round number and a target for both the bulls to take profit and the bears to start shorting.
possible top in sight for S&P, end to the trump rally?Based on trading range targets and and resistance at the top of the trend channel line, profit taking and short positions may be taken round these levels round 2480.0. if the S&P gets up here the likelyhood of testing 2500 is a real possibility. The S&P could then test the bottom of the shorter term channel and may even go further to test the bottom of the long term channel.
with the market being as strong as it is at the moment, and at the top of its channel shorting can be a risky strategy. i will be watching these levels closely for the bears to show some strength before considering a short position. At the moment any attempt by the bears have been bought by the bulls.
S&P500 Long Term Bull Setup
Having pushed lower last week, it looks like the index may be heading lower for the time being, i intend on waiting for price to test the lower long term channel, placing limit orders at and below the fib .236 line, and waiting for high volume. Uncertainty surrounding the trump rally abound, there may be opportunities to buy cheap in the coming weeks, lets just hope not too cheap...
GL and Happy Easter
GBPUSD Range Trade from 1.215 - 1.26GBPUSD ranging between well tested support and resistance levels at 1.215 and 1.26.
Based on existing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, and fears of 'Trump Rally' reversal I hesitate to predict the trend going forward, but as 'Brexit' appears to be at least partially priced in, I'm more comfortable buying below support, with a tight SL, and TP at 1.26. This strategy is supported by the high volumes accompanying bull candles at the bottom of the range, suggesting high Sterling demand at these levels.
This is all contingent on no major surprises in the economic releases for the next few weeks.
(FAZ) 3x Short Financials ETFThe Trump rally has the financials arguably overbought. Interested on people's take on the rationale behind price tag of these financial stocks. FAZ provides a great opportunity to profit from a selloff.
Bank of America and the So-Called "Trump Rally"Bank of America was supposed to jump anyway. The current drop is not Trump’s fault, either. BAC is still in a long-term uptrend.
SPX 2300 Imminent!SPX completely went up on bullish trend after long period of correction. As we can see SPX break through the solid line directly and approaching the 2300
USD ZAR explosion about to happen (Post trump inauguration)1 To go up if markets already priced in trump uncertainty post press conference.
2) To go down (forecast is actually conservative so, expect even lower reaches) if market hasn't priced in trump uncertainty.
Trump has no real policies and markets may see this when he's confirmed.
2 seems most likely but things have been a bit weird around trump, so expect 1 as well. Moves to start Friday and to take off Monday.
$AKS 161216C$10.50 BTO Calls@market open 121216 +161223C$12.00- Been swinging Call Options on AKS since week end 11616; Purchased 4 Calls (Strike Price 10.50) on the Market Open Monday AM w/ a Limit Order price of .29.
- Averaged down w/ purchase of 6 more Contracts the following day w/ Lower Low (Consolidation) being set in @ limit price of .15. Held position - FED Hike in hopes of a Market/Metals Rally to no avail.
- Holding 10 Call Contracts Avg. Price of .22 per and looking to match the gains failed to realize pre-hike at the least.
- Looking to sell to Close the contracts on or near loss of 10, 20, 100 period MA w/ the 30 minute Chart Setup.
- Do Believe After Hours activity will have all 3; including the EMA 4 & 8 period Moving Averages as support on the open.
- If the 4period EMA has not crossed the 8 period EMA to the Upside; I will look to hold position until it does.
- Slight chance on the 30 Minute Chart of a 50 period and 200 period Golden Cross(I believe so anyways); but WILL not Hold thru Friday 12/16/16 in hopes of seeing additional gains should it not occur Thursday 12/15/16.
- Trade setup for following week or upon Total Gains >= 400% put in place w/ weakness following FED Hike and possible profit taking from medium/long term traders:
- In lieu of adding more contracts to this weeks position, purchased a total of 10 Call Contracts w/ - AKS w/ a $12 Strike Price expiring 122316 for a .08 per. If further weakness occurs - End of Week, willing to add but ONLY if it AVG. Down my Call Contract prices (.09 after commission). As stated previously have been swinging, successfully mostly, this Ticker since one week following the election, along w/ AMD, CLF, VALE, RYI, FCX.
Buying NAS100 on pullbackThis index seems to be lagging compared to the SPX and RUT.
Shorting the market just doesn't make sense yet .
I'm taking a long position based on the ANN strategy buy setup,
targeting ~4921 and a stop loss at ~4831.
Good luck.
Dollar index (DXY) 2016-2017 Analysis: Wave 4 correction is due.Talking Points:
DXY Technical Strategy: Keeping bullish outlook but temporary correction due
Elliottwave Count: Nested impulsive count, wave 4 correction is due
Analysis
DXY (Dollar Index) is trading impulsive in post election session and able to break channel resistance. We were calling reversal from 19-Aug-2016 and looking for 100 levels during August month. Current count is suggesting more upside towards 103 and above. However, we are expecting small set back of this impulsive rally as part of wave 4, we were seeing small correction in shorter time frame but that is still too shallow.
Action
As We are expecting small set back to re-test channel support, we are looking to re-initiate our long position on dollar basket, i.e. we are looking to sell EUR/USD (Euro / US dollar), NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar), Crude Oil, etc.
-- By HoagTrading.com (@Hoagtrading)
Dollar index (DXY) 2016-2017 Analysis: Rally to continue post elTalking Points:
DXY Technical Strategy: Keeping bullish outlook
Elliottwave Count: Nested impulsive count
Analysis
DXY (Dollar Index) is trading impulsive in post election session and able to break channel resistance. We were calling reversal from 19-Aug-2016 and looking for 100 levels during August month. Current count is suggesting more upside towards 103 and above. However, we are expecting small set back of this impulsive rally. Index is testing horizontal resistance near 101.50 area. Break of this level will have 103.15 zone.
Action
As We are expecting small set back to re-test channel support, we are looking to re-initiate our long position on dollar basket, i.e. we are looking to sell EUR/USD (Euro / US dollar), NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar), Crude Oil, etc.
-- By @HoagTrading (Hoagtrading.com)
