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Crypto Markets: “Sell in May, and Go Away” — What Does It Mean The historical pattern known as the “Sell in May, and Go Away” seasonal divergence was popularized by the Stock Trader’s Almanac, which stated that investing in stocks represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average from November to April and switching to fixed income for the other six months “has delivered reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950.” What is “Sell in May, and Go Away”? “Sell in May, and Go Away” is a well-known saying in finance. It is based on the historical underperformance of stocks over the six-month period from May to October. According to Fidelity Investments, the divergence has been most pronounced in recent years, with the S&P 500 (SPX) gaining an average of about 2% from May to October from 1990 onwards over the next 30 years, compared with an average of about 7% from November to April. The Halloween Indicator, 'Sell in May and Go Away': Everywhere and All the Time*, a research paper examining stock markets outside the US, found the same pattern, calling the seasonal divergence trend "surprisingly resilient." Key Takeaways 👉 "Sell in May and go away" is a saying that refers to the historically weaker performance of financial markets from May to October compared to the other half of the year. 👉 Investors can try to capitalize on this pattern by switching to less risky assets from May to October, based on historical data. Seasonality in investment flows may persist as a result of year-end bonuses from the financial industry and businesses, perhaps helped by the mid-April deadline for filing U.S. income tax returns. Whatever the underlying fundamentals, the historical pattern was made more pronounced by the October stock market crashes of 1987 and 2008. Final Points 👉 The problem with historical patterns is that they do not reliably predict the future. This is especially true for well-known historical patterns. If enough people became convinced that the “Sell in May and Walk Away” pattern would persist, it would essentially begin to disappear immediately. All the early sellers would try to sell in April and bid against each other to buy back the assets before everyone else in October. 👉 At the same time, certain considerations regarding the development of geopolitical events in the period from May to October 2025 reasonably give reason to think about the prospects of such a scenario for the next 6 months. * The Halloween Indicator, 'Sell in May and Go Away': Everywhere and All the Time >> Ben Jacobsen Tilburg University - TIAS School for Business and Society; Massey University >> Cherry Yi Zhang. Nottingham University Business School China; Massey University - School of Economics and Finance. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎

GOLD Regains Above 3'300, since US stocks "Relief Rally" is Over Gold prices recently surged above $3,300 per ounce due to a confluence of geopolitical, economic, and monetary factors driving strong safe-haven demand: Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Hamas conflict and ongoing US-China trade disputes, have increased uncertainty, prompting investors to seek Gold as a secure store of value amid instability. The US dollar's weakness, nearing a three-year low, has further boosted gold's appeal for holders of other currencies, making Gold relatively cheaper and more attractive globally. What is most important also, U.S. stock rally has overed recently its tedious 10-Day winning strike (fortunately which finished not at all the history peaks). That's why investors may be turning back to tried-and-true assets like Gold. Central banks, notably China’s, have been consistently buying gold to diversify reserves away from the US dollar, supporting prices significantly. China increased its Gold reserves for the 17th consecutive month, signaling sustained institutional demand. Additionally, gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen record inflows, reflecting growing investor interest beyond traditional buyers. Market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later in 2025 have also played a key role. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, enhancing its investment appeal amid inflation concerns and economic growth uncertainties. This combination of geopolitical risk, a weaker dollar, central bank purchases, and anticipated monetary easing has propelled gold prices to historic highs, with forecasts suggesting further gains toward $3,500 per ounce. -- Best #GODL wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎

Canadian Dollar vs US Dollar: Recovering from The Bearish Hugs In previous posts, we have already begun to look at the key factors that have driven the U.S. outperformance over the past decade. The U.S. market dominance is largely due to the rapid rise of tech giants (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet), which have benefited from strong profit growth, global market reach, and significant investor inflows. Underperforming Internationally Markets outside the U.S. have faced challenges such as multiple stifling sanctions and tariffs, slowing economic growth, political uncertainty (especially in Europe), a stronger U.S. dollar, and the decline of high-growth tech sectors. The Valuation Gap By 2025, U.S. equities will be considered relatively expensive compared to their international peers, which may offer more attractive valuations in the future. Recent Shifts (2025 Trend) Since early 2025, international equities have begun to outperform the S&P 500, and European and Asian equities have regained investor interest. Global market currencies are also heavily dependent on the US dollar. Factors include optimism around the following three main themes. DE-DOLLARIZATION. DE-AMERICANIZATION. DIVERSIFICATION. De-dollarization is the process by which countries reduce their reliance on the US dollar (USD) as the dominant global reserve currency, medium of exchange, and unit of account in international trade and finance. This trend involves a shift away from the centrality of the US dollar in global economic transactions and towards alternative currencies, assets or financial systems. Reasons for De-dollarization The move towards de-dollarization is driven by geopolitical and economic factors: Backlash against US economic hegemony: The US often uses the dollar's dominance to impose sanctions and exert political pressure, encouraging countries to seek financial sovereignty. Rise of emerging economic powers: Emerging economies such as China and groups such as the BRICS are seeking to reduce their vulnerability to US influence and promote regional integration and alternative financial infrastructures. Geopolitical tensions: Conflicts such as the war in Ukraine have increased efforts by countries such as Russia to withdraw dollars from their reserves to avoid sanctions. Summary De-dollarization is a complex, ongoing process that reflects a gradual shift away from the global dominance of the US dollar. It involves diversifying reserves, using alternative currencies and assets, and creating new financial systems to reduce reliance on the dollar. Driven by geopolitical tensions and the rise of emerging economic powers, de-dollarization is challenging the entrenched role of the dollar, but is unlikely to completely replace it anytime soon. Instead, it is leading to a more multi-polar monetary system in international finance, increasing demand for alternative investments in the US. Technical Test The main technical chart is presented in a weekly perspective, reflecting the performance of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar FX_IDC:CADUSD over the long term. With the positive dynamics of the relative strength indicator RSI(14) continuing, a breakout of flat resistance near the level of 0.72 is noted, with the prospect of a possible price increase to 0.80, parity in the currency pair and strengthening of the Canadian dollar to historical maximums, in the horizon of the next five years. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎

Bull in a China Shop. The S&P 500 Index After 100 Days of Trump President Donald Trump's first 100 days in office were the worst for the stock market in any postwar four-year U.S. presidential cycle since the 1970s. The S&P 500's 7.9% drop from Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20 to the close on April 25 is the second-worst first 100 days since President Richard Nixon's second term. Nixon, after taking office as President of the United States (for the second time) on January 20, 1973, witnessed the S&P 500 index fall by 9.9% in his first 100 days in office, due to the unsuccessful economic measures he took to combat inflation, which led to the recession of 1973-1975 when the S&P 500 index losses of nearly to 50 percent. It all started in January 1973 in the best soap opera traditions of Wall Street, at the historical peaks of the S&P 500 index.. ..But less than two years later it quickly grew into a Western with a good dose of Horror, because the scenario of a 2-fold reduction of the S&P 500 index was unheard those times for financial tycoons and ordinary onlookers on the street, since the Great Depression of the 1930s, that is, for the entire post-war time span since World War II ended, or almost for forty years. Nixon later resigned in 1974 amid the Watergate scandal. On average, the S&P 500 rises 2.1% in the first 100 days of any president's term, according to CFRA, based on data from election years 1944 through 2020. The severity of the stock market slide early in Trump's presidency stands in stark contrast to the initial "The Future is Bright as Never" euphoria following his election victory in November, when the S&P 500 jumped to all-time highs on the belief that Mr. Trump would shake off the clouds, end the war in Ukraine overnight, and deliver long-awaited tax cuts and deregulation. Growth slowed and then, alas, plummeted as Trump used his first days in office to push other campaign promises that investors took less seriously, notably an aggressive approach to trade that many fear will fuel inflation and push the U.S. into recession. The S&P 500 fell sharply in April, losing 10% in just two days and briefly entering a bear market after Trump announced “reciprocal” tariffs, amid a national emergency that gave him free rein to push through tariffs without congressional oversight. Then Trump began yanking the tariff switch back and forth, reversing part of that tariff decision and giving countries a 90-day window to renegotiate, calming some investor fears. Many fear more downside is ahead. Everyone is looking for a bottom. But it could just be a bear market rally, a short-term bounce of sorts. And it's not certain that we're out of the woods yet, given the lack of clarity and ongoing uncertainty in Washington. Time will tell only... -- Best 'China shop' wishes, @PandorraResearch Team

GOLD Follows "Buy The Dip" Mode, Being Supported by 200-hour SMA Gold prices have experienced significant volatility over the last days, with conflicting reports on the current trend. According to some sources, gold prices have increased, with spot gold reaching $3,500 per troy ounce, new all the history high on Tuesday, April 22, 2025. The $3,500 milestone has sparked increased interest from investors and market analysts, meaning that Gold spot doubled in price over the past 5 years, 3rd time in history ever. Despite the short-term volatility, gold has shown a strong performance since the beginning of 2025, with an increase of approximately 30-35% year-to-date. Market analysts remain bullish on gold, with some forecasting prices to reach $ 4'000 per ounce in the near term. The main 1-hour graph indicates on 200-hours SMA technical support, with further upside opportunity due to forming on the chart descending triangle (flat bottom/ descending top) breakthrow. -- Best #GODL wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎