The TrumpCoin Craze: What’s Really Going On?Yesterday, something truly bizarre happened in the world of crypto. Donald Trump—yes, that Donald Trump—launched his very own cryptocurrency, TrumpCoin ($TRUMP).
At first, like everyone else, I thought his account had been hacked.
I mean, launching a meme coin just days before his presidential inauguration? Come on...
But nope, it’s 100% real. Verified.
Like many others, I got curious and, let’s face it, greedy. So, I bought in. The result? I cashed out at a nice 3x profit, enough for a fun night out. But before we dive into the crazy market activity, let me clarify a couple of things:
- I’m not a Trump fan. This isn’t about politics.
- I don’t think this is a rug pull, at least not intentionally .
It seems more like someone who doesn’t fully understand how crypto works decided to jump in.
A Brief Timeline of Chaos
TrumpCoin was announced on his social platforms, including Truth Social and X (formerly Twitter). Initially, everyone thought it was fake news. I mean, a meme coin with his name on it? Right before inauguration day? It screams “scam.” But soon after, major crypto news outlets confirmed its legitimacy.
And then the madness began. Within hours:
- Market cap: Over $14 billion at the time of writing(and climbing).
- Trading volume: A jaw-dropping $11 billion in just one day.
- Price swings: The coin hit a high of $3.30 before dipping below $1.50 and now is above $4.
Trump’s company, CIC Digital LLC, reportedly holds 80% of the coin supply, making this a financial windfall for him—even if the project crashes.
The Crypto Community Splits
This move has divided the crypto space. On one hand, you have people who are treating $TRUMP like any other speculative asset. ( Hi, that’s me! )
On the other, there are folks who see it as a statement of loyalty to Trump. Then there’s a third group—the skeptics—who warn that this could end in disaster.
The real problem? Newbies are piling in without understanding what they’re doing. The hype is pulling in people who don’t know a rug pull from a blockchain. They’re buying and buying, hoping to ride the wave, and are likely to get burned when the bubble bursts.
Is This a Rug Pull?
Let’s address the elephant in the room. With 80% of the supply in Trump’s control, the setup raises eyebrows. But is this an intentional scam? Probably not. If anything, this feels more like a PR stunt gone wild—a way to cash in on his fame and make a splash before returning to the White House.
That said, the outcome could still be the same. At some point, the hype will die, the price will tank, and many will lose money. The bigger it gets, the harder it’ll fall.
My Take: Enjoy the Ride, but Be Careful
TrumpCoin is the epitome of crypto’s wild side: volatile, unpredictable, and more about hype than substance. If you’re diving in, know what you’re getting into. For me, it was a quick trade—buy low, sell high, and get out. But I worry about the inexperienced investors who are holding on, hoping for it to hit $10, $20, or even higher.
So, here’s my advice:
Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose.
Take profits while you can.
Remember, just because something is popular doesn’t mean it’s sustainable.
Whether $TRUMP reaches a $25 billion, $50 billion market cap or crashes spectacularly, one thing’s for sure—it’s going to be one heck of a ride.
Stay safe out there, and happy trading!
Trumptrade
$TRUMP - Forming a continuing Head and Shoulders pattern
A continuing head and shoulder pattern has formed on the intraday time frame.
The best point to enter the trade is when the neckline breaks and touches it again.
Also, if the $36 support line is touched again and a price rejection is seen from it, it can be another technical entry point.
This is only a technical analysis and is in no way an investment or trading recommendation.
TRUMPomania - 3 variants of possibly Bulls RallyCrypto markets have been rocked by the launch of an "official" Donald Trump memecoin this weekend—with traders braced for more mayhem this coming week.
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The price of the "official" Trump memecoin has surged since its Friday evening launch, breaking into the crypto top 20 by market capitalization and hitting an eye-watering $14 billion.
Now, as leaks reveal Trump is readying a flurry of crypto-focused executive orders, Trump's wife Melania has launched her own rival cryptocurrency—tanking the price of Trump's coin.
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TRUMP PRESIDENTIAL OATH GOLD SIGNAL ALERT!Hey All Traders:
Tomorrow Monday market open and due to BANK holiday in US gold possible move sideways.
for now Gold strong supply zone at 2713 to 2716 are valid for entry for short.
target of MONDAY signal 2690 and my second target is 2685 after this point hit gold will buy and mark a new ATH.
GOLD fall in this week because TRUMP sit on PM house and news is good for US currency so GOLD will fall and big drop coming in market.
TRUMPUSD in a couple hours, we'll see a price over $100.TRUMPUSD in a couple hours, we'll see a price over $100.
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Skyrexio | TRUMP Is Destroying Crypto Market: When It Will Stop?Hello, Skyrexians!
Last 2 days something crazy is happening on the crypto market. KCEX:TRUMPUSDT is absorbing all crypto market and many people warn that it can destroy even Bitcoin. This sounds scary, but we want to remind you that FOMO will destroy your deposit. Anyway TRUMP coin is tradable and our methods are applicable to it.
Let's take a look at 15 min time frame. Awesome Oscillator helps us to understand in which wave this asset now. The answer is in the wave 3. Fibonacci extension shows us that this pump is coming to end. Price is inside that target area. Now a lot of FOMO buyers incoming into this coin, we need correction. In our opinion this correction will reach $45 then we will see the wave 5 to $120-130.
After that we can face with the huge crash. We will wait for the signal on Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator , look how perfectly it worked before! The red dot at $120 is going to be final call for holders to sell.
Best regards,
Skyrexio Team
___________________________________________________________
Please, boost this article and subscribe our page if you like analysis!
Breaking: $TRUMP Set to Surge to $100 on Trump’s InaugurationThe Solana-based memecoin, $TRUMP, created by the newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump, has taken the crypto world by storm. With a 15% uptick in price at the time of writing and major exchanges like Binance now listing the token, $TRUMP is making history as the first memecoin projected to reach the $100 milestone. This explosive growth highlights the coin’s unique blend of political significance and community-driven appeal.
Technical Analysis: Is $100 a Realistic Target?
The $TRUMP chart reveals a possible retracement to the $33 support zone, which could serve as a prime buy opportunity for traders. Liquidity has already been swept from the recent highs, suggesting that the market is gearing up for another upward move. Here are the key technical factors:
1. Support and Resistance Levels:
- Immediate resistance is set at $73.43, the coin’s all-time high recorded on January 19, 2025.
- Key support is at $33, where buyers have previously stepped in, indicating strong demand.
2. Trading Volume Surge:
- $TRUMP’s daily trading volume stands at $35.9 billion, a 61.2% increase in just 24 hours. This uptick in volume is a bullish signal, showing heightened market activity.
3. Momentum Indicators:
- RSI suggests the coin is nearing overbought territory, signaling potential cooling off before another rally.
- MACD shows bullish divergence, further supporting a potential move to $100.
What Makes $TRUMP Unique?
The Official Trump token combines meme culture with political symbolism, creating a one-of-a-kind asset. Here’s what sets it apart:
1. Backed by Donald Trump:
- Launched on Truth Social, $TRUMP is directly tied to President-elect Donald Trump’s brand, amplifying its appeal to both crypto enthusiasts and political supporters.
2. Ownership and Unlocking Schedule:
- CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC, affiliates of The Trump Organization, collectively own 80% of the Trump Cards, subject to a 3-year unlocking schedule. This structured release reduces the risk of immediate sell-offs.
3. Decentralized Appeal:
- Despite its political connections, the token’s creators emphasize that $TRUMP is not a political instrument or security. Instead, it’s designed to engage users in the ideals and artwork associated with the Trump brand.
Market Data: A Glimpse at $TRUMP’s Growth
- Current Price: $54.03 (26.5% below its ATH of $73.43).
- All-Time Low: $4.29 (achieved just two days ago).
- Market Cap: $10.6 billion, ranking it #21 on CoinGecko.
- Circulating Supply: 200 million tokens.
Where to Buy $TRUMP
The token is available on several leading exchanges, including:
- OKX: The most active trading pair, TRUMP/USDT, has a 24-hour volume exceeding $4 billion.
- KuCoin and Gate.io: Other popular platforms with significant trading activity.
Potential Risks and Rewards
While $TRUMP offers significant upside potential, traders should be aware of the inherent risks. High volatility, political controversies, and the speculative nature of memecoins could impact its trajectory. However, the token’s strong community support and robust trading activity make it a compelling choice for risk-tolerant investors.
Conclusion
$TRUMP is more than just a memecoin; it’s a cultural phenomenon blending crypto innovation with political influence. With technical indicators pointing toward a potential rally and fundamentals bolstered by strong market interest, the coin’s path to $100 seems increasingly plausible. Whether you’re a trader seeking short-term gains or a believer in its long-term potential, $TRUMP is a token to watch in 2025.
MES: Ice and Fire Could Blow the U.S. Economy Off its CourseCME: Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) #Microfutures
In “A Song of Ice and Fire”, American author George Martin painted a mystical land where dragons spit out flame to destroy a whole city and a winter that last one hundred years. Game of Thrones, the popular HBO TV series, was adapted from Martin’s book.
In 2025, we seem to be reliving these moments. California wildfires have claimed dozens of lives, burnt down thousands of homes, and caused an estimated $250 billion in damage.
Meanwhile, Winter Storm Blair raged coast-to-coast, bringing heavy snow across the Great Plain to Mid-Atlantic. The storms shut down interstate highways, caused thousands of airport delays and racked up 350,000 power outages. At the time of this writing, Polar Vortex is bringing freezing temperature back to the lower 48 states.
These weather perils are very destructive. In my opinion, the forces of nature could cause real damage to the entire U.S. economy.
Firstly, we could see a rebound in inflation
The Bureau of Statistics (BLS) reported that US CPI increased 0.4% in December and went up 2.9% year-over-year (YoY). Of which, the energy index decreased 0.5% YoY with energy commodities gasoline and fuel oil falling 3.4% and 13.1%, respectively. In contrast, energy services such as electricity increased 2.8% and natural gas (piped) rose 4.9% YoY.
The chart shows a correlation between CPI and natural gas prices. The underlying logic is the U.S. economic reliance on natural gas. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 43.1% of the electricity in the country was generated by natural gas.
In “Nat Gas: Trading the Weather”, I explained how cold temperatures increase natural gas demand for generating electricity and heating up homes.
Higher natural gas prices affect not just the storm-hit regions, the entire country also bears a higher cost for energy services. Larger utility bills raise the cost of producing and distributing all goods and services.
A leading indicator: When natural gas prices rise, inflation will likely go up.
Conclusion: As natural gas went up sharply, we could expect a higher CPI for January.
Secondly, we could see economic slowdown and higher unemployment
Many businesses in the passage of winter storms suffered loss of sales. People in parts of Los Angles were evacuated. The total cost for insurance payout, loss of revenue, debris cleanup and rebuilding amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars. Total US GDP was $28 trillion last year, or about $2.3 trillion per month. A quick calculation shows that the weather perils could shave off 1/10th of the US national output for the month of January!
Many S&P 500 companies are based in California or in the storm-hit regions. The actual damage to them will be revealed when they report quarterly earnings in April and May. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will report Q1 GDP on April 30th.
US unemployment has been on the rise since mid-2023. In my opinion, the A.I. driven technological revolution is responsible for many High-Tech layoffs. On January 10th, the BLS released its nonfarm payroll report and showed that unemployment in the Information sector was 98,000 in December 2024, up from 86,000 a year ago.
December is the busiest month for the Retail sector. However, retailers report total unemployment of 897,000 for the month, up 87,000 or 11% from December 2023.
When the BLS updates its payroll report in January, I expect to see higher unemployment data. The month-to-month data could be even worse, as January is usually a slow month after the December holiday season. In addition, winter storms and wildfires would push more businesses to shut down and lay off employees.
Finally, the uncertainty around economic policies under the new administration
I expect President Trump to raise “ice and fire” on his own. If his first term is any guide, we would see plenty of drastic policy changes impacting various industries. Uncertainties are not well embraced in the world of investment. Any new policy initiative could bring the market to chaos when the news breaks, regardless of its long-term effect.
During the first term, important policies (such as new tariff) were usually announced from Twitter tweets. This time around, they would likely come out of Truth Social tweets.
Trading with Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
In my opinion, the U.S. stock market will face more volatility in the coming months. Key economic data could be disappointing for investors.
• When the January nonfarm payroll report is released on February 7th, monthly employment data could trend lower, while unemployment rate ticks up. Signals of economic weakness could send the stock market lower.
• When the January CPI data is released on February 12th, the headline inflation could move higher. If this is the case, the Fed is less likely to lower interest rates. The stock market will face downward pressure.
• The Fed will meet on January 29th. According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, the futures market prices a Fed decision of no-change at 97.9%. However, the market consensus shows that Fed Funds rates could drop to 3.25-4.00% by December, indicating 1-4 rate cuts in 2025. The Fed has not committed to any further rate cut.
www.cmegroup.com
Given these scenarios, a trader could explore short-term opportunities by shorting the S&P 500 prior to the Big Report Dates.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report provides further support to this thinking. The latest data shows that, as of January 14th, Leverage Funds hold 151,543 long positions and 448,908 short positions for E-Mini S&P 500 futures.
Despite the S&P nearing its all-time high, “Smart Money” already turns bearish. Shorts outweigh longs by a 3-to-1 ratio.
• They are also bearish on Nasdaq 100, by a 1:2 long-short ratio (43,254 vs. 82,724)
• This contrasts with the Dow contracts sharply. Leverage funds own Micro Dow by a 3:2 long-short ratio (17,591 vs. 10,051) during the same period.
The MES contracts offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark S&P 500 futures (ES) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of $5 times the S&P 500 index, which is 1/10th of the E-Mini contract.
Micro contracts are very liquid. CME Group data shows that 1,095,979 contracts were traded on Thursday, January 16th. Open Interest at the end of the day was 129,228.
Buying or selling 1 MES contract requires an initial margin of $1,525. With Friday closing price of 6,040, each March contract (MESH5) has a notional value of $30,200. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=30200/1525).
Hypothetically, if S&P futures price falls 10% to 5,436, the price change of 604 points (6,040-5,436) will translate into $3,020 in profit for a short position, given each index point equal to $5 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,525 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 198% (=3020/1525).
The risk to short Micro S&P is that the US stock market continues its spectacular rally. To limit the downside risk, a trader could set up a stop-loss when entering a short position.
For illustration, a short trade executed at 6,040 could be combined with a 6,200 stop. If the S&P goes up to 6,500, the trader’s position would be liquidated well before that. The maximum loss would be $800 (= (6200-6040) * $5).
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TRUPMUSDT TRADING POINT UPDATE >READ THE CHAPTAINBuddy'S Dear friend 👋
Crypto Trading Signals 🚀 Update crypto Trader SMC trading point analysis setup update you Trump USDT again ready for Moon 🌝. Long bullish trade 79.56180 again after day's going up
Support level 45. 37.
Resistance level 60 . 70 .80
Mr SMC Trading point
Support 💫 My hard analysis Setup like And Following 🤝 me that star ✨ game 🎮
Buy (DJTUSDT) 🚨 Trade Signal Alert: Trump Coin 🚨
📈 Entry: $0.000382
🎯 Target: $0.000650
🛑 Stop-Loss: $0.000325
⚖️ Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 4.7
Analysis:
This trade is based on key technical levels combined with geopolitics/fundamentals. I anticipate strong momentum and a potential pump by tomorrow.
👉 Support this analysis: Follow, comment, and like to show your engagement and stay updated with future signals!
Key Levels TRUMP🔹 Key Levels:
Supports: 20 - 28 - 35 - 65
Resistances: 90.06 🔥 and 100.00 🚀
🔹 Analysis:
The price may correct to the 65.30 zone and then rise 📈, targeting 90.06 and 100.00. If support breaks, the price could drop to 28.71 ⚠️.
🔹 Recommendation:
Using a stop loss is essential 🚨
Ensure proper risk management
Trump Coin's Wild Ride: Breaking Fibonacci to $115 or Busting toGood morning trading family! Here are the key levels to watch for $TRUMP:
Resistance to Break: Keep an eye on the 38.2% Fibonacci level. If $TRUMP breaks above this, watch for:
$89 - First significant target if the break is confirmed.
$104 - Another potential milestone.
$115 - The highest optimistic target if momentum continues.
Support to Hold: If $TRUMP fails to break above the 46 range, watch for a potential drop to:
$25 - A critical support level where the price might find a floor or continue to decline.
These levels will guide whether $TRUMP climbs the stairs or slides down. Last minute: If you found this analysis valuable, boost it with a like, share, or send me a DM if you need help.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
TRUMP Coin Idea (Be careful)Hey ill make the description very short compared to my other posts..
This is a VERY risky coin to trade so please dont be mad at me if you lose
everything in this coin!!! (NFA DYOR!!!)
If we don't make a new low this could be a 5 wave up pretty much
combined with a reverse H&S (bullish pattern)
Target is 80-120 USD measured from the 5 wave and H&S.
NFA NFA NFA NFA
Bitcoin - Bitcoin, waiting for Trump's new policies!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk off sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline.
Bitcoin's downward correction and its placement in the demand zone will allow us to buy it. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important.
Bullish signs are abundant in the cryptocurrency market, as investors observe various factors that favor this sector beyond Bitcoin. While some analysts predict 2025 as the year of altcoins, JPMorgan argues that Bitcoin will remain an attractive option.
Market experts point to cyclical trends that could boost altcoins such as Solana and Ripple. These two tokens experienced significant growth following Donald Trump’s election victory, driven by expectations of greater support from the new administration. However, JPMorgan highlights four reasons why investors should approach the altcoin market cautiously.
First, future policies remain speculative, with uncertainty surrounding their timing and impact. Although reduced regulatory oversight may improve sentiment across the industry, there is no guarantee that interest in decentralized finance will grow substantially.
JPMorgan noted that it is still unclear whether these new regulations will allow the crypto ecosystem to integrate into traditional financial systems or if public blockchains like Ethereum will play a central role in the future.
Additionally, the bank stated that ambitious plans for crypto reserves in the United States and beyond are likely to focus solely on Bitcoin. Certain U.S. states have already proposed legislation to hold Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, a policy Washington might adopt during Trump’s second term.
Second, Bitcoin continues to dominate the cryptocurrency fund space. JPMorgan predicts that retail and institutional investors will keep investing in Bitcoin spot ETFs, supported by Bitcoin’s appeal as digital gold. According to a Bernstein report, Bitcoin is expected to replace gold as the primary store of value in the global economy over the next decade.
Bitcoin accounted for 35% of the total $78 billion inflows into the crypto market in 2024, according to JPMorgan. By contrast, Ethereum spot ETFs, launched in July 2024, attracted only $2.4 billion. The bank also forecasts that future ETFs for altcoins like Solana may see limited capital inflows.
Third, the Bitcoin network is evolving to rival tokens with more specific use cases, such as Ethereum. Historically, Bitcoin was perceived as a buy-and-hold asset with limited functionality. However, developers have been expanding its capabilities, and new smart contract features will help it compete with rivals.
JPMorgan also stated that large institutions might overlook public blockchains like Ethereum in favor of private blockchains offering customized solutions for institutional investors.
Fourth, new altcoin projects require time to mature and prove their utility. The bank explained that decentralized initiatives often attract initial user attention but then face declining activity and token value. To achieve sustainability, these projects must demonstrate their long-term functional benefits.
JPMorgan cautioned investors against expecting a repeat of the 2021 crypto bull market. During that period, projects succeeded through token distribution, but the current industry is more focused on blockchain capability development.
The bank further noted that MicroStrategy is still halfway through its plan to invest $42 billion in Bitcoin. This software company has made a name for itself by accumulating vast Bitcoin reserves through equity and debt financing.
For the first time in history, over 20% of total spot trading volume is conducted on decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
Standard Chartered Bank warned that if the $90,000 support level breaks, Bitcoin could drop to around $80,000. The bank highlighted that Bitcoin ETF purchases have stabilized since the U.S. presidential election, and Jerome Powell’s policy shifts at the Federal Reserve on December 18 have increased selling pressure on digital assets.
The bank cautioned that widespread panic could amplify these sell-offs, potentially affecting other cryptocurrencies.Nevertheless, such a price drop could present a long-term accumulation opportunity.
Tue 21st Jan 2025 GBP/USD Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a GBP/USD Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
USOIL Trade LogUSOIL Short Trade Setup 🚨
- Instrument: West Texas Oil (USOIL)
- Timeframe: 1-Hour
- Risk: Between 1% and 2%
- Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2 minimum
Key Technical Analysis:
1. Price has formed a clear reversal structure accompanied by a rejection off the monthly Kijun level .
2. A 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) provides a potential entry point with a confluence of the Kijun 1H level.
3. The setup is in alignment with a broader bearish sentiment due to macroeconomic influences.
Fundamental Confluence:
- Recent announcements signal a ceasefire in the Middle East , reducing geopolitical oil supply risks.
- Trump's statement regarding plans to increase oil drilling has heightened expectations of increased supply, potentially pressuring prices downward.
Trade Plan:
- Entry: Within the 1H FVG zone upon bearish confirmation.
- Stop Loss: Above the 1H FVG's upper boundary.
- Take Profit: At least twice the stop-loss distance for a 1:2 RRR.
Risk Management:
Ensure strict adherence to the 1%-2% risk allocation. Always consider market volatility before executing trades.
This setup offers a balanced technical and fundamental perspective. Keep in mind, the market can always surprise you. Stay disciplined!
Trump's inauguration sends the Tech sector's 'time to shine'The 2nd inauguration of Donald Trump (now to sworn as the 47th president of the United States) is here and expected to take place on Monday, January 20, 2025.
Crowds are gathering in Washington DC in freezing conditions ahead of this most anticipated over past several months event.
Tech sector stocks are about to have a welcome moment also.
The main technical graph for Nasdaq-100 indicates here's "time to shine" as positive fundamental and technical catalysts converge.
A rising potential for AI monetization via agentic AI as a technology can autonomously accomplish complex tasks on the user's behalf.
The fact is that widespread AI adoption has happened heavily more rapidly than PC and internet adoption in prior major technology cycles, which could mean that AI is closer than expected.
As a result, qualitative commentary on ramping up enterprise AI adoption during earnings calls will likely evolve into indications of incremental revenue boosts this year, before more meaningful monetization as early as 2026, they add.
Such a trajectory would likely be a welcome development for many AI investors who expressed worries last summer after pouring such huge amounts of money into the tech with little signs of a return on investment.
In technical terms, Tech heavy Nasdaq-100 futures has been supported a week ago by 100-Day SMA, and now an epic breakthrough of the Reversed Head-and-Shoulders technical figure is coming.
Descending Bearish channel seems is clearly broken in this time.
NAS100 - Nasdaq index path, after the inauguration!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the supply range will provide us with the conditions to sell it.
As markets prepare for Donald Trump’s inauguration, the dollar has weakened slightly. Early signals suggest that no significant changes in tariff policies are imminent, leading to a minor dip in the dollar’s value. Over the weekend, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had a positive conversation. Following the call, Trump tweeted, “Just had an excellent conversation with Xi Jinping of China. This was very good for both China and the U.S. I expect us to solve many issues together, and we’ll start immediately.”
Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Technology Index has reached its highest level in two years. Bloomberg data shows the 30-day correlation index between the world’s largest cryptocurrency and the Nasdaq stands at approximately 0.70, indicating closely aligned movements between the two assets.
On another front, Jared Bernstein, head of Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, has warned that the incoming Trump administration’s potential interference in Federal Reserve interest rate policies could risk a resurgence in inflation. Bernstein emphasized the importance of maintaining the Fed’s independence and noted that executive actions should not influence interest rate decisions.
TD Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady during the first half of this year. However, it expects rate cuts to resume in the second half, with the terminal rate reaching the low 3% range. This strategy reflects the economy’s need to digest Trump’s new policies, particularly on tariffs and immigration.
This week’s economic calendar is relatively light.Both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq will be closed on Monday, January 20, 2025, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
Later in the week, key economic data will be released. On Thursday, the U.S. weekly jobless claims report will be published, followed by preliminary S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and existing home sales figures on Friday.
Bank of America forecasts that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach 4.75% this year, with the potential to surpass 5% depending on Federal Reserve decisions. However, it sees a low probability of yields exceeding 5.25%.
The bank cites a strong macroeconomic backdrop and a hawkish Federal Reserve, suggesting that any rate hikes will depend on inflation data. Bank of America also notes that yields near 5% could represent a compelling buying opportunity, provided the Consumer Price Index remains stable or declines slightly.
STRUMP - Could it present an incredible buying opportunity?Super Trump looks like more lower lows are ahead. Simplicity is key here. Don't worry about 100 different signals. Look at the core signals that work best for you. Mine are very simple and I know how to make them work and 'jive' together. Volume is bleak, all red. Blue trend line breach is unlikely. Hurst (time) cycles says that we're 1/2 way through a cycle which infers more down. The signals that would give me the highest confidence of a reversal are a few green bars on the volume, a blue trend line decisive break-out and a few more exchanges on-boarding this eclectic meme coin. I wouldn't bother, stay away. Follow and share for more.