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#TRUMPUSDT – Bearish Scenario, Breakout Down📉 SHORT BYBIT:TRUMPUSDT.P from $12.278 🛡 Stop Loss: $12.599 ⏱ 1H Timeframe ⚡ Trade Plan: ✅ The BYBIT:TRUMPUSDT.P price has formed a Bearish Flag and broke its lower boundary, confirming a bearish scenario. ✅ The asset is trading below POC (Point of Control) at $12.978, indicating strong seller dominance. ✅ Increasing volume on the breakdown further confirms the strength of the downward move. 🎯 TP Targets: 💎 TP 1: $12.100 🔥 TP 2: $11.900 ⚡ TP 3: $11.785 📢 A close below $12.278 would confirm further downside movement. 📢 POC at $12.978 is a strong resistance level that the price failed to break. 📢 Increasing volume on the drop supports the bearish outlook. 📢 Securing partial profits at TP1 ($12.100) is a smart risk-management strategy. 🚨 BYBIT:TRUMPUSDT.P remains in a downtrend – monitoring for continuation and securing profits at TP levels!
Short
by MoriartyTrading
3
#TRUMPUSDT – Bearish Scenario, Expecting a Downward Breakout📉 SHORT BYBIT:TRUMPUSDT.P from $12.492 🛡 Stop Loss: $12.785 ⏱️ 1H Timeframe ⚡️ Trade Plan: ✅ The BYBIT:TRUMPUSDT.P price continues to decline after a recent sharp drop. ✅ The chart shows that the asset is consolidating below POC (Point of Control) at $13.105, indicating seller dominance. ✅ The price is testing a support level, and a breakdown could trigger a stronger bearish move. 🎯 TP Targets: 💎 TP 1: $12.305 🔥 TP 2: $12.110 ⚡️ TP 3: $11.966 📢 A close below $12.492 would confirm the downward move. 📢 POC at $13.105 is a key volume area that now acts as resistance. 📢 Increasing volume on the decline supports the bearish trend. 📢 Securing partial profits at TP1 ($12.305) is a risk-management strategy. 🚨 BYBIT:TRUMPUSDT.P remains under pressure – monitoring for a confirmed breakdown and securing profits at TP levels!
Short
by MoriartyTrading
Ethereum — 2025. The Lord Giveth and Taketh Away (Caution! 18+)Donald Trump's recent policies and statements have generated significant negative sentiment towards Ethereum and the broader cryptocurrency market. As he resumes the presidency, his administration's approach to cryptocurrencies is expected to be more regulatory and cautious, which could impact Ethereum investors. Historical Context of Trump's Views on Cryptocurrency Trump has a mixed history with cryptocurrencies, as we mentioned in earlier published ideas. Initially, he labeled them a "scam", "based on thin air" as well as "threat to the U.S. dollar" and expressed skepticism about their value, stating that they are not real money and are highly volatile. However, in recent months, he has shifted his stance somewhat, reportedly owning between $1 million and $5 million in Ethereum as of August 2024. Despite this personal investment, his public comments continue to reflect a critical view of the crypto market. Impact of Recent Tariffs on Ethereum The most immediate cause of concern for Ethereum investors has been Trump's announcement of new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. This decision triggered a significant sell-off in the cryptocurrency market, with Ethereum experiencing a drastic price drop of over 26% in just one day. The overall cryptocurrency market lost nearly half a trillion dollars in value following these announcements, highlighting the interconnectedness of global trade policies and digital asset valuations. The tariffs have led to increased uncertainty among investors, prompting many to liquidate their positions in riskier assets like Ethereum. This reaction is indicative of a broader trend where geopolitical tensions and economic policies directly influence cryptocurrency prices. Analysts noted that such trade policies could lead to inflationary pressures and a stronger dollar, making cryptocurrencies less attractive to international buyers. Future Outlook for Ethereum Under Trump's Administration Looking ahead, Trump's administration is likely to focus on stricter regulations for cryptocurrencies. This could manifest in enhanced oversight that may slow down the adoption of Ethereum by businesses and individuals. However, there is also potential for increased legitimacy if clear regulations are established. Moreover, Trump's interest in Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) might further complicate the landscape for Ethereum. As the U.S. explores its digital dollar initiative, Ethereum's decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem could face stiff competition from state-backed digital currencies. Technical challenge The main technical graph for Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD indicates on Bearish trend in development, since mid-December 2024, with acceleration occurred a day before Mr. Trump entered the White House. Key support considered as 100-week SMA (near $2550 in this time) and $2200 flat multi bottom, that helps so far; otherwise (in case of breakthrough) we believe it could lead the Ethereum price much lower, as it described on the chart. Conclusion In summary, while Trump’s personal investment in Ethereum marks a notable shift from his previous criticisms, his administration's policies—especially regarding tariffs—have created a challenging environment for Ethereum investors. The combination of regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic factors will likely continue to influence Ethereum's market performance in the near future.
by PandorraResearch
2
S&P500 Index Goes 'Floundering', ahead of Bearish HarvestWhile the S&P 500 is generally expected to perform well in 2025, with forecasts suggesting gains ranging from 9% to 14.7% depending on the source, there are several factors that could lead to a less favorable performance or even a decline: High Valuations: The S&P 500 is currently trading at high valuations, with a P/E multiple of 22 times projected earnings, which is above historical averages. This elevated valuation increases the risk of market downturns if there are negative economic shocks. Economic Uncertainties: The economic landscape is filled with uncertainties, including potential inflation increases and geopolitical tensions. These factors can impact investor confidence and lead to market volatility. Interest Rates and Bond Yields: Higher bond yields can reduce the attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds, potentially leading to a decline in stock prices. Earnings Growth Expectations: While earnings are expected to grow, there is a risk that actual growth may not meet these expectations, which could negatively impact the market. Policy Risks: Changes in trade policies, such as tariffs, and shifts in fiscal policy could also affect the market's performance. Historical Patterns: Achieving three consecutive years of high returns (above 20%) is rare for the S&P 500, suggesting that 2025 might not see such strong gains. Overall, while there are positive forecasts for the S&P 500 in 2025, these potential risks could lead to a less robust performance or even a decline if they materialize. // While salmon make up the bulk of their diet, Coastal Brown Bears also enjoy a fresh flounder now, and again. Best wishes, PandorraResearch Team 😎
CBOE:SPX
by PandorraResearch
Bears in the market RapBears in the market, we playin’ it smart, I see the markets crashin’ like ‘08 and ‘20 conceived a baby, On Putin’s Berlin Wall, this vibe be gettin’ shady. Options spread wide, keep my capital tight like trump's Epstein supply, Hedgin’ every move ‘cause this ain’t my first fight. YQQQ payin’ dividends, I'm takin’ my part. They all panic sellin’, but I planned from the start, FIAT is king when those crypto scams fall apart. Political tides shiftin’, policies determin’ trends, Macro factors got these rookies shifting to bonds and I be selling them short, Fed rates rising, tech stocks takin’ hits, While CMBS is drownin’, banks hidin’ like Thompson's Ghost. CMBS breakin’, banks won’t admit the fall, Hold-to-Maturity? Nah, it’s worthless on the call. They waitin’ for the markdown, valuations fade, DRV stackin’ profits while they sinkin’ in the shade. This CRSH got me stackin’ up like they seig heiled the top in swastikar, Their Nazi heart, redneck crypto, got FIAT lookin’ sexy, inflation creepin, Been stocking up on GDXY, like a libertarian in heat. Cyber threats risin’, HACK'n that ETF space like it's the matrix, and every red pill swapped with the blue pill, like the prez date raped them, and sold em to epstein at the polls Tariffs hit the market, but these dunces never learn. Commercial real estate? Ain’t no savin’ that crash, DRV on the rise, I be stackin’ that cash. If you be bear'n to bear arms, let me hear you roar, Let those inverse dividends stackin’, I got those passive gains to steer. While they stress about the crash, I be movin’ with the tide, Bear market blues, but my strategy aligned.
NASDAQ:YQQQ
by livingdracula
Buy the Dip: TEM is a Resilient AI Healthcare Pick for 2025Tempus AI NASDAQ:TEM is presenting a compelling investment opportunity as we move into 2025. This health tech company, focused on leveraging AI for precision medicine, has weathered a recent downturn and is showing strong signs of recovery. After a 4 week correction that presented a chance to buy at a discount, TEM has finally shown the ability to rally. This recovery makes it a particularly interesting prospect for several reasons: 1. AI's Continued Rise: The field of artificial intelligence is advancing at breakneck speed, and Tempus is at the forefront of applying these advancements to healthcare. Their work in areas like genomic sequencing and data analysis for personalized treatment plans positions them exceptionally well to capitalize on this megatrend. 2. Weathering the Political Storm: Tempus's core business is less vulnerable to possible tariffs that may be introduced by incoming President Trump. Healthcare, particularly innovative approaches to disease treatment, remains a critical sector regardless of the political landscape. Furthermore, Tempus' customers being mostly internal U.S. customers provides further resilience in the face of possible tariffs. 3. Technical Rebound: As the attached chart illustrates, TEM is in the midst of a technical bounce back. The recent price action suggests that the sell-off may be overdone, and the stock is finding support at current levels. The upward sloping support and resistance lines indicate a potential 40-80% gain if TEM can continue to show resilience in the face of selling pressure. The stock currently trades below it's 20 day EMA, but the recent rally shows that it could potentially find support along this average before continuing to trend upwards. In Conclusion: Tempus AI offers a unique combination of growth potential in a rapidly expanding sector, resilience to potential political headwinds, and a technically attractive entry point. While all investments carry risk, TEM's current profile suggests it's a stock worth serious consideration for gaining exposure to the intersection of AI and healthcare in 2025, especially at these highly discounted prices. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Remember, Patience is Paramount.
NASDAQ:TEMLong
by PatienceIsParamount
XAUUSD - Gold, no competitors!Gold is located in a 2 -hour timeframe, above EMA200 and EMA50 and is on its uptrend channel. Gold reform to the demand range will provide us with a good risk position for us. According to Tom Stevenson from Fidelity International, gold remains resilient despite challenges such as high interest rates and a strong dollar, continuing its march towards the $3,000 mark. However, while these fundamental factors persist, he believes that silver could be a more attractive investment option in the future. Stevenson notes that gold prices have increased tenfold since 2000 and have surged by over $1,000 since late 2023. Yet, he argues that fundamentally, gold should not be this expensive. He explains: “Historically, precious metals tend to underperform when interest rates rise. This is because, unlike bonds, stocks, cash, or real estate, gold does not generate income for investors. When other assets offer appealing returns, there is less incentive to hold onto what economist John Maynard Keynes once referred to as the ‘barbarous relic.’ This situation remains true today, yet gold continues to set new record highs.” Stevenson also believes that gold should benefit from a weaker dollar. He states: “Since gold is priced in U.S. dollars, when other currencies strengthen against the dollar, their purchasing power for gold increases.Conversely, when the dollar strengthens, global demand for gold should decline. However, despite Trump’s policies reinforcing the dollar, gold remains on an upward trajectory.” He concludes that this signals something important to the market: “Gold’s performance suggests that not everything is as stable in the world as some may think. It indicates investor concerns, and history has shown that ignoring gold’s signals during times of uncertainty is a mistake.” Stevenson further emphasizes that central banks around the world are taking steps to hedge against risks. Since the onset of the Ukraine war and subsequent sanctions, countries like Russia, China, India, and Turkey have increased their gold purchases in an effort to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar. He points out that gold has long been recognized as a valuable store of wealth and a diversification tool, as it carries no credit risk unlike paper currencies. According to him, central bank gold purchases in 2024 have surpassed 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year. Meanwhile, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and head of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E), has shared memes resurfacing old conspiracy theories regarding the status of the U.S. government’s gold reserves at Fort Knox. In response, a prominent politician seized this rare opportunity to call for greater transparency. Senator Rand Paul, a Republican representative from Kentucky, replied to one of Musk’s posts advocating for an annual audit of Fort Knox, writing, “Let’s do it.” So far, no evidence has surfaced to support Musk’s theory of missing gold, but the status of these reserves remains highly classified.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
OFFICIAL TRUMP 6X Lev. Trade Setup (2,142% Potential)Hello my friend, thank you for reading. Your support is appreciated. Below I am sharing the full trade-numbers for my TRUMPUSDT leveraged trade. This is for experienced traders only. Use these numbers at your own risk. You are responsible for all your wins, gains and profits. I cannot be responsible if you make any money. It is your decision to either trade or not to trade. To read or not to read, to follow or not to follow. To eat or not to eat. To breathe or not to breathe. If you do good. That is up to you. If you lose any money, that is also your responsibility. I am sharing these numbers for learning and entertainment purposes only. It should be construed as financial advice. Leveraged trading is high risk and for adults only. Adults are responsible for their own actions. I am wishing you luck, wealth, health and success. ___ LONG TRUMPUSDT Leverage: 6X Entry levels: 1) $17.1 2) $15.2 3) $14.3 Targets: 1) $18.4 2) $20.2 3) $22.2 4) $24.1 5) $26.0 6) $28.8 7) $32.3 8) $36.1 9) $38.5 10) $42.3 11) $48.6 12) $53.6 13) $58.6 14) $64.3 15) $74.9 Stop-loss: Close weekly below $15 Potential profits: 2,142% ____ If you enjoy the content, feel free to follow. Thank you for reading. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
3
The Most Effective way to fight Tariffs, is to Sell BondsIn an era when protectionist tariffs have become a go-to tool for DUNCE Political leaders such as President Voldemort, it is time for investors, institutions and nation states to take a stand—and not through traditional protest, but by wielding the formidable power of financial markets. Tariffs, by raising costs and distorting trade, can sap economic growth. Yet, as history and recent trade wars have shown, the real battleground is not just at the border but in the bond markets. The BIG FRAUD of created by American's "Buy, Borrow, Die" mental illness is already at a point where it could burst any moment and the best needle to poke this bubble is the 2 Year Bonds. If these bonds default, a recession will likely happen and it is unlikely a republican majority will be elected in the house and senate during the mid-term cycle. Therefore, the most aggressive and effective countermeasure is to sell off short-dated (2‑year) bonds in favor of longer‑dated (5‑ and 10‑year) bonds, and to liquidate any and all U.S. bonds held by companies in politically “red” states. This would mean the debt they hold is being sold for pennies on the dollar, like Twitters loan already is... Tariffs and Trade Wars: Lessons from Recent History The recent imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China has sparked a new wave of economic disruption. These tariffs—intended to protect domestic industries—have instead triggered retaliatory measures and rattled global markets. As reported by Reuters, the trade war initiated by these tariffs has not only led to rising costs for consumers but also to significant volatility in financial markets. Such aggressive trade policies reveal an underlying fiscal vulnerability that can be exploited through strategic bond trading. REUTERS.COM Historically, trade wars have often served as the catalyst for broader financial instability. When tariffs escalate, investors flock to safe-haven assets, yet the resulting market dynamics also open up opportunities for those who know where to look. Now is the moment to pivot—and the bond market is the perfect arena for this counteroffensive. Historical Defaults: A Wake-Up Call Contrary to the oft-repeated claim that “the U.S. has always paid its bills on time,” history tells a different story. There have been several notable instances—ranging from the demand note default during the Civil War to the overt default on gold bonds in 1933 and technical defaults such as the 1979 payment delays—that remind us of the inherent risks in our national fiscal practices. These episodes highlight that U.S. bonds, despite their reputation for safety, are not immune to default under fiscal duress. THEHILL.COM This historical perspective should not only unsettle complacent investors but also embolden them to leverage the bond market as a tool of economic resistance. By strategically repositioning bond portfolios, investors can exacerbate fiscal pressures on policymakers who rely on the illusion of unfailing debt service. The Yield Curve: An Opportunity for Tactical Rebalancing The current structure of the U.S. Treasury yield curve presents an unprecedented opportunity. Short‑term bonds—especially the ubiquitous 2‑year Treasuries—are trading at levels that no longer justify their risk, given the market’s expectation of a steepening curve as longer‑term yields are poised to rise. By aggressively selling off 2‑year bonds and using the proceeds to acquire 5‑ and 10‑year bonds, investors can capture the benefits of a steepening yield curve. This strategy not only enhances returns but also sends a powerful signal: the market is rejecting the financial underpinnings that allow tariffs to be financed cheaply. This repositioning weakens the liquidity available for financing government policies that sustain tariffs, thereby indirectly undermining the protectionist agenda. As bond market dynamics come into sharper focus amid rising inflation fears and fiscal deficits, this tactical shift represents a proactive measure to tilt the scales back in favor of free trade. REUTERS.COM Targeting “Red State” Bonds: A Political and Financial Imperative It is no secret that companies based in states with predominantly conservative (or “red”) leadership have often been the political bedfellows of tariff advocates. These companies not only benefit from protectionist rhetoric but also tend to issue bonds under fiscal conditions that make them particularly vulnerable when market sentiment shifts. Moreover, they also tend to be overvalued anyway so the likelihood of panic selling is more likely. The time has come to liquidate any and all U.S. bonds issued by red state companies. By divesting from these securities, investors can both shield themselves from potential losses and apply market discipline on a sector that has, for too long, been insulated from the harsh realities of global trade dynamics. This aggressive divestiture sends a dual message: a rejection of protectionist policies and a call for a more balanced, market-oriented approach to national fiscal management. It is a bold stance that forces a rethinking of the relationship between politics and finance—a reminder that no company should be immune to the corrective forces of the market. Conclusion Tariffs are not just trade policy—they are fiscal weapons that rely on the ability to finance cheap debt. History has shown that even the most stalwart bond markets are susceptible to default under pressure, and recent trade wars have only amplified these vulnerabilities. The solution is clear and decisive: sell off 2‑year bonds and reinvest in 5‑ and 10‑year bonds, while liquidating U.S. bonds held by red state companies. This aggressive financial maneuver not only promises better returns in a steepening yield curve environment but also serves as an effective counterattack against protectionist tariffs. By rebalancing portfolios in this manner, investors take an active role in challenging policies that restrict free trade and hinder economic growth. In the world of modern finance, sometimes the best way to fight back is to let your portfolio do the talking. Disclaimer: This article reflects a strongly opinionated perspective and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions.
TVC:US02Y
by livingdracula
To $TRUMP or not to $TRUMP - ROUND III think the motorcade is leaving, ladies and gentlemen. In this video, I take a detailed look at Trump meme coin COINBASE:TRUMPUSD and analyze its recent price action using multiple timeframes and technical indicators. While the charts are currently giving mixed signals, there are some bullish structures that stand out. My main focus is on Bollinger Bands, historical support/resistance levels, and key liquidity areas. I discuss the importance of watching price interaction within these zones and outline potential upside targets while maintaining a cautious approach. Currently, I’m in a position at $18.88, watching for confirmation that the price will move back into the higher liquidity range. Based on technical patterns, I see $26-$28 as reasonable upside targets, with potential for a stronger breakout if momentum continues. However, I also outline conditions for failure, emphasizing that any significant downside movement could invalidate the setup. Key Market Observations & Trade Setup 🔹 Trump Meme Coin COINBASE:TRUMPUSD Position entered: $18.88 Current market structure: Mixed signals across timeframes Key technical observations: Interaction with Bollinger Bands suggests a potential move upward. Strong support boundary tested twice, confirming a key level. Price needs to re-enter higher liquidity zones for confirmation. 🔹 Bullish Case & Target Zones First upside target: $26 (safe exit zone). Primary target: $28 (historical liquidity shelf). Stronger momentum scenario: If price clears $30, it could extend to $34. 🔹 Conditions for Caution Mixed signals across different timeframes. If price struggles to hold support, downside movement could invalidate the setup. Trading needs to be reassessed on approach to key resistance areas. Final Thoughts This trade hinges on how price interacts with liquidity levels and Bollinger Bands in the next few sessions. While a push to $26-$28 looks probable, I’ll be closely watching for momentum confirmation before considering extended targets. As always, stay flexible and manage risk accordingly.
COINBASE:TRUMPUSD
by Hollywood260AB
7
#TRUMPUSDT – Quick Trade: Fast Long Opportunity!BYBIT:TRUMPUSDT.P is showing strong bullish momentum after a sharp rally and is now consolidating around $19.562. This is a fast trade, requiring quick entry and exit, as the first target $19.875 could be hit in a short time. 👉 Key Takeaways: ⚡ This is a fast trade – no waiting! The goal is to set the order, take profit, and exit quickly. ⚡ Fast entry – confirmation above $19.562. ⚡ Tight stop-loss – set at $19.440 to minimize risk. ⚡ Quick target – $19.875, where profit-taking and a pullback may occur. 📈LONG BYBIT:TRUMPUSDT.P from $19.562 🛡 Stop Loss: $19.440 ⏱ 15M Timeframe (Quick Trade!) ✅ Overview: ➡️ BYBIT:TRUMPUSDT.P is trading near $19.560, with potential for a quick breakout. ➡️ Volume confirms strong buying interest, but profit must be taken fast. ➡️ This trade is designed for immediate execution and exit upon reaching $19.875. ⚡ Plan: ✅ Act fast – enter and exit without hesitation. ✅ If price slows down before $19.875, exit early. ✅ Don’t chase the price – wait for a clean setup. 📍 Take Profit: 🎯 TP1: $19.875 – exit zone. 🚀 BYBIT:TRUMPUSDT.P breaking resistance – fast long opportunity! 📌 Strategy : Momentum + Quick Profit Target.
Long
by MoriartyTrading
2
USOIL Trade Log - CPI Session USOIL Short Trade Setup – CPI Session Incoming 🚨 - Instrument: West Texas Oil (USOIL) - Timeframe: 4-Hour - Risk: 1% max due to CPI volatility - Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2 Key Technical Analysis: 1. Price has reached a strong resistance zone within the 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) and is showing signs of rejection. 2. The Kijun Weekly and 4H levels align with this area, increasing the probability of a reversal. 3. Market structure has been bearish overall, with a clear Break of Structure (BOS) and internal liquidity grabs. CPI Session Volatility Warning: - With the CPI release incoming, expect aggressive moves and potential liquidity sweeps before directional commitment. - If price runs liquidity above the FVG and shows strong bearish confirmations, this becomes a high-probability short. - Manage risk carefully – no need to overexpose with CPI in play. Trade Plan: - Entry: Within the 4H FVG upon bearish confirmation. - Stop Loss: Above the FVG high to avoid CPI wicks. - Take Profit: At least 1:2 RRR, ideally targeting recent lows. Stay sharp, play the reaction, and don’t force the trade if the setup invalidates. CPI is where weak hands get rinsed! 💀
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by Fondera
Saying the quite things about TSLA out loud...This is my first chart art. Hope you all find humor in the awful situation that is TSLA. I do NOT see any situation where TSLA remains a Trillion Dollar market cap company for the next 4 years. Their cars are being sold used at historically higher volume, demand has gone down and their new model Y... WHY would someone buy that when the CEO and founder is sieg healing behind the podium the same day where the American Equivalent of the nuremberg laws are signed into law. Behind the insanely bearish optics, the fundamentals have always been overvalued. TSLA is not a tech company. It's a car company built off the top of liberal ideology. It's founder is in an "open loop" or more accurately a "broke loop". He has chosen to support policy that harms his stock, such as removing the EV credit that has contributed to their profitability. Worse still, the acquisition of Twitter, using TSLA as collateral will inevitably result in a defaulted loan. Compounding still, further, he is borrowing money from new investors to fund xAI, which has no real value compared to OpenAI and is, itself being used to pay back the defaulting loans backed by TSLA. This is a literal PONZI scheme, ran by someone who has put the entire fate of his company in the hands of a convicted fraudster with 7 bankruptcies under their belt. It is a literal, red nazi flag. Nothing NEO about it...
NASDAQ:TSLA
by livingdracula
Reversal of US Energy Policy Could Push Crude Oil LowerNYMEX: Micro Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) #Microfutures On January 20th, President Donald Trump signed an executive order, “Declaring a National Energy Emergency”. This sets the tone of US energy policy for the next 4 years. By declaring national emergency and raising energy independence to the highest level of national security, President Trump introduced sweeping measures to fast-track energy infrastructure and regulatory approvals. In a 180-degree reversal, the new administration abandoned the Climate Change policies championed by the Biden presidency. Other executive orders saw the US quitting the Paris Climate Accord and cancelling pushes into renewable energy and electric vehicles. This marks a major turning point in the price trend of crude oil. Since Mid-January, WTI prices have already retreated 11%, while Brent was lowered by 10%. In my opinion, WTI futures could fall to the pre-Pandemic price range of $45-$64 a barrel, with a midpoint target at $55 in 2025. My logic follows: US oil production will rise, benefiting from the new energy policy As of 2023, the U.S. produced about 14.7% of the world's crude oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. This makes the US the largest crude oil producer globally. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated the domestic oil production at 13.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024. It recently forecasted the US output to grow to 13.5 and 13.6 million b/d, in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Considering the complete makeover of US energy policy, I think the next EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) would show measurable upticks in its production forecast. Threats of Tariffs could curtail global oil demand Last week, the US slapped a 25% tariff for Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff for China on top of those imposed during the 2018-19 trade conflict. While the tariffs for Canada and Mexico are on hold pending trade negotiation, China retaliated and announced new tariffs on US goods at rates ranging from 10% to 15%. Rising global trade tensions would increase costs and raise the prices on store shelves. Declining sales would lead to production reduction. Eventually, a slowdown in economic activities will result in less demand for crude oil. The January STEO report forecasts global oil consumption growth to be less than the pre-pandemic trend, at an increase of 1.3 million b/d in 2025 and 1.1 million b/d in 2026. With the impact of higher tariffs, I expect the next STEO to show further deterioration in its oil consumption forecast. Lifting of oil embargo could release more supply to the global market The new administration campaigned to end global military conflicts. In my opinion, a US brokered peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is on the horizon. Iran and the US could resume talks soon. Both scenarios could see the existing oil embargo being lifted. In 2024, Russia is the 3rd largest oil producer with 10.75 million barrels a day, while Iran ranks 7th with 4.08 million. Together, they contributed to over 18% of global oil output. Market trades on expectation. Oil prices would respond quickly with the emergence of any planned negotiation. OPEC+ to increase crude oil production The STEO forecasts the OPEC+ to relax production cuts. Following an annual decline of 1.3 million b/d in 2024, it expects growth of 0.2 million b/d in 2025 and a further increase of 0.6 million b/d in 2026 from OPEC+ producers as voluntary production cuts unwind. Additionally, STEO expects further production growth from countries outside of OPEC+, including the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. Commitment of Traders shows bearish sentiment The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on February 4th, total Open Interest (OI) for NYMEX WTI Futures is 1,765,342 contracts. “Managed Money” (i.e., hedge funds) own 204,272 in Long, 60,136 in Short and 393,098 in Spreading. • While they maintain a long-short ratio of 3.4:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 36,310 (-15%) while increasing short positions by 11,085 (+16%). • This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on oil. Crude oil prices typically rise on the back of geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and economic growth. We are likely to witness the retracing on all these fronts. Another reason for the rising prices in most financial assets has been the abundance of liquidity, leading by the $2-trillion-a-year US deficit spending. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) made significant headways into cutting government expenditures. This could help remove some of the premiums on asset prices. Trade Setup with Micro WTI Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the NYMEX Micro WTI Futures ( GETTEX:MCL ). MCL contracts have a notional value of 100 barrels of crude oil. With Friday settlement price of $71.0, each March contract (MCLH5) has a notional value of $7,100. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $586. NYMEX crude oil futures are among the most liquid commodity contracts in the world. On Friday, standard WTI futures ( NYSE:CL , 1000 barrels) has a trade volume of 784,820 contracts and an OI of 1,796,265. Micro WTI has a trade volume of 54,038 and OI of 19,178. The Micro contracts allow traders to tap into the deep liquidity of NYMEX WTI market, while requiring only 1/10th of the initial margin. Hypothetically, a trader shorts March MCL contract and WTI prices pull back to our upper price range of $64. A short futures position would gain $700 (= (71 - 64) x $100). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +119.5% (= 700 / 586). The risk of shorting crude oil futures is rising oil prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set stop loss at $75 when entering the short order at $71. If crude oil continues to rise, the maximum loss would be $400 ( = (75-71) *100). To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, #TheFuturesLeap, sponsored by CME Group, is currently running at TradingView. I encourage you to join The Leap to sharpen your trading skills and put your trading strategies at test, competing with your peers in this paper trading challenge sponsored by CME Group. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1
#TRUMP/USDT#TRUMP The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is adhering to it well and is heading to break it strongly upwards and retest it We have a bounce from the lower limit of the descending channel, this support is at a price of 15.35 We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break and retest, which supports the rise We have a trend to stabilize above the Moving Average 100 Entry price 17.14 First target 19.62 Second target 22.00 Third target 24.32
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
2