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Trumptrade

S&P 500: May You Live In Interesting TimesThe SPXUSD (the perpetual contract of the SP 500) is somewhat of an indicator for domestic US investor sentiment. In comparison, I consider the DJIA to be an indicator of foreign capital flows to the US. The US appears to be triggered by the nomination of a Supreme Court judge, or rather, the slander and innuendo associated with the nomination... and despite all the howling and nashing of teeth, the S&P500 goes nowhere but up, for slander and innuendo cannot be traded. I mention this because US political instability is a fundamental headwind. The Supreme Court nomination is a flashpoint that reveals the deep polarization, unfocused discontent, and indoctrination in the US. Meaning, if Kavanaugh is appointed, investor sentiment will be maintained, as it represents a win for Trump, and a win for Trump is a win for business. But, a lot of people will not accept this nomination, and it will only deepen political contention. Any threat to Trump may impact the markets negatively. But for now, the markets are optimistic. Was today the dip to buy? It was trendline and horizontal confluence. I would like to see the lower parallels tested for an even better buy entry. As traders, the best we can do is do what needs to be done, when it needs to be done. In a bull market, that means buying the dip. If the lower parallel is taken out on a closing basis, I will naturally readjust. For now, no damage has been done. I find it troubling that daily, weekly and monthly stock/rsi are flashing bearish divergence. Bear div can always be negated, but this needs to be monitored. In short, stay long. Buy dips. Re-adjust if levels are taken out to the downside.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TheRealPeaches
SHORT NZD/CAD NAFTA MS TRADECAD should outperform NZD over the coming weeks. Constructive NAFTA news suggests that the US may be getting closer to an acceptable agreement with its trading partners, which should lead to a continued re-pricing of the trade risk premium. Risks to a more dovish RBNZ continue, with the new Policy Targets Agreement likely to add a second employment mandate and potentially offer specific language on the currency. Data in NZ also remain uncompelling, including the business PMI and GDP. Positioning also favors the trade, with the market remaining long NZD while CAD sentiment is net bearish. A risk to the trade is a dovish shift from the BoC, leading to CAD weakness. - Morgan Stanley
Short
by itzbert
Has the Market Mispriced Refined Coal?Just finished writing a detailed analysis of ADES in which I talk about the growing demand for refined coal both in the United States, and more importantly Southeast Asia. ADES is sitting on loads of cash, its turning around its cash from operations, and has a solid catalyst in its chemicals business that puts it ahead of the industry. Using DCF it has a fair value of around $22/share when using the average EPS over the last four years. The technicals aren't great, but I like the support level and am looking for a bounce from support. Check out my post if you're interested, and please, leave feedback if my analysis is missing something or if I am overlooking anything: rockvuecapital.wordpress.com
ALong
by BrandonBeylo
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