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Money Supply Effect on BTCAs a summary my mid-long term projection is: BTCUSD: Bearish DXY: Bullish BTC.D: Bullish Altcoins: Bearish Contrary to most, i still do not think that money supply will push BTC and crypto prices higher. US dollar is still powerful and till inflation starts to increase and DXY completes its movement, all pairs against USD have to be in correction. At the end i wait very long and greedy bull market for all risky assets including cryptocurrencies and emerging markets. As an example, Turkish lira is one of the worst fiat currencies nowadays all around the world but it is just completing its major cycle against USD. You may check other emerging markets and currencies such as South Africa, Brasil etc. XU100/USDTRY To sum up, instead of a financial collapse, i will be waiting for risk appetite in long term but for now world need US dollar!
BNC:BLXShort
by glnkty
Big Day For USD-TRYUSD TRY shouldn't close today above 7.1 for a lot of technical reasons I cannot possibly mention here. Let me just say that there should be a ton of resistance there. Right now it is surprisingly holding very close to the top. If it doesn't close and spends a few days in this area the possibility's become increasingly bullish. In the event that it closes above 7.1 at any point within next week it's mid term target becomes 9.2 and there will be very little resistance to get there. In the event that it closes today above 7.1 the price will rally like a rocket and 9.2 will be reached in a much shorter timeframe. This is very sad for all Turkish people. And what's even worse is that no one there has a clue about this.
Long
by cankarako
1
ridethepig | Turkish Lira Strategy🔸 Ceilings and profit taking I am starting to unwind partials in the USDTRY longs with all of these moves so full of energy in the current chapter it wont be long until the retailers and bloomberg crowd are on board. There is lots of thunder and lightening across the global economy, Turkey will catch more than the sniffles but it is prudent we stick to the plan - the same plan since 2018 (yes 2018). In this position, wave 5 was an obvious impulse, because after buyers held support they could then start to promote their positions and adding to winners. The 30% upside once looked miles away and is now shining us right in the face, will sellers dare to come out? Will other sharp speculators riding this for months/quarters want to also take profits? If buyers hold 7.82xx it will trigger the collapsing of local banks, so we make this play with a heavy heart. It would be interesting to investigate further whether we will get the intermediate highs in USDTRY, so lets leave some partials running incase we get capitulation...
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | Thoughts on Turkish Lira📌 The capitulation After PA in December 2018 showed us the basing formation it has been all 'one way trafffic' This may lead you to wonder why it is so important to understand the fundamentals and definition of current capital flows, because it is then possible to build one's whole swing around a macro fundamentally sound trade idea, that underpins the technical ebb and flow tactics. Of course we continued to pile on longs all the way up, our confidence in the swing was building which influenced the way we were able to construct the trade and future of the operation. Here I must highlight that the move does not last for ever; a full blown +50% move in a currency crops up occasionally, in fact even more you can see the need to capitalise on these moves. So, as we approached the start of the 'flash crash' or up in this case, the following additions were made: Then suddenly it happens, the almost powder runs dry in Turkish local banks and we get the momentum higher. It shows how hollow and uninteresting currencies can be, very straightforward when used in the safe little world of macroeconomics. A quick update on the initial leg of the Q3 flows we were tracking live: The final motive to clear was nat gas being discovered, the threat of continuing higher is very high and therefore logical to trade. Funding rates are casually moving higher but with no sense of urgency which of course is linked to the entire defence system for sellers at 7.80. Now it's important to load off of the previous resistance in the first leg of Q3 at 7.20, for a move into the final macro targets above at 7.80xx right on time for the elections. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | TRYBuyers have made the transition towards capitulation. This leaves Turkey with a huge problem, and the process of the cleanse in local banks will continue. CBRT will defend with its 'customary inventiveness' very soon as they keep a stern eye on 7.8xx. It is an unfortunate position that Turkey are in. We have exploited it for some time and as soon as the banking collapse makes it way onto Bloomberg and etc it's time to start looking at closing out. Well done all those who sent their troops to the buy side, a massive +30% swing so far and counting. After the break through 6.78 it has continued to grind its way to the wearisome target. This is the real point in the manoeuvre, which forces us to stay alert and protect profits as we approach the final targets in the unstoppable macro advance. A superb live example. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
11
Two great Buy opportunities on this chart for USDTRYMid-Term Forecast Trading suggestion: . There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (7.4086). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets. Technical analysis: . USDTRY is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected. .The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 41. Take Profits: TP1= @ 7.4086 TP2= @ 8.0000 SL= Break below S2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Short-Term Forecast Trading suggestion: . There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (7.4123). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets. Technical analysis: . USDTRY is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected. .The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 70. Take Profits: TP1= @ 7.4530 TP2= @ 7.7210 TP3= @ 8.0000 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how do you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity
21
Bearish Divergence on EUR TRYThe CBRT responded to the recent lira weakening by tightening the liquidity conditions in a significant way, although more may need to be done to stabilize the markets. The CBRT first made a press announcement stating that a) liquidity measures introduced to support growth would be phased out; and b) all available instruments would be used to reduce market volatility (suggesting rate hikes could be on the agenda). The Bank then halved the amount of cheap funding (offered at 100bp below the policy rate) to primary dealers. Finally, the Bank did not open the daily 1-week repo auction (with the 8.25% interest rate), forcing banks to borrow from the more costly ON lending facility (with interest rate 9.75%). If the remaining 1-week repos are also not rolled over, then the CBRT’s effective funding rate will increase from 7.50% to 9.75% within a week. Such measures should help to reduce the demand for FX and should slow down the loan growth, mitigating worries over price and financial stability. However, it remains to be seen if they will be enough to restore confidence and to stabilize the markets.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn3984200