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USDTRY updated mapThe pair followed the world as DXY has crossed beyond the 100 and EM currencies couldn't resist global dollar demand.
So, it's time to update the labels.
We are in yellow wave Y already and it reached the equal distance of wave W. Potentially it could tag the former top at 7.0830
where Y will be equal to 1.618 of W.
This will complete the wave X (white labels).
Then another drop of the dollar could start.
ZOOM: TURKISH LIRA CORRECTINGI'm now bearish for LIRA.
It can be a good opp. for bringing average Price down.
5.65-5.78TL range will be a good entry
USDTRY will reach 7.0000Turkish lira continuously weakening. The lowest price was reached in 2018 7.080 against US dollar, looks like the same level will be reached soon. Rising tention with EU about refugies, turism crisis (actually tourism is on of the main parts of the economy), so the mix of this two fundamental factors will push TRY lower.
ridethepig | TRY Capitulating...The struggle for democracy is being carried out and as long as Erdogan remains at the helm there is only one direction for TRY. Autocrats are typically sticky in nature and difficult to remove, the attack should first be aimed at the currency which will be the base of the capitulation. Attacking the 7.8 will break local bank and looks imminent as markets receive the USD via safe haven flows. Example:
After the technical break of the resistance the swing formation seems to be self fulfilling. So, according to the plan we attacked immediately and that is now clear in the outflows by...
If you wish to undermine democracy; you tend to try to blow up the foundations of capitalism. The natural restructuring of markets will always follow automatically and hence it is only a matter of time before we see 7.80 and Turkish banks capitulating. After Erdogan, the IMF bailouts will have different possibilities. Turkey's plan can be seen at its clearest now that fears of coronavirus have coupled alongside the Saudi / Russia oil action. Remember, Turkey is an importer of Oil ... so with Oil now flirting with a break towards $20 (see diagram) the logical development will be to destroy the highs in USDTRY.
Very simple. Continue to work longs on the first dip you see. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the discussion with your views on TRY!
USDTRY map: down then huge up then collapseUSDTRY could dip now into 5.45 area to complete small wave X (white label).
Then the final move up with wave Y in larger degree X could emerge, which could tag former top of 7.0830.
After that the large Y to unfold down to retest the bottom of the entire consolidation at 5.1300
Turkish Lira is ready for upliftSymmetrical triangle violated ---- check
Fib level 0.705 taken out via double bottom ---- check
Upside previously tested via long wicks ---- check
Fundamental (news, macro etc) ----- check
Where do you think $TRY is going soon?
Not financial advise, course.
USDTRY | Ascending TrianglePlease support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful.
Price formed an Ascending Triangle, that is a bullish pattern. We can initiate a long position if there is a confirmed breakout of Resistance level.
Thank you for reading this idea! Hope it's been useful to you and some of us will turn it into profitable.
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
The information given is not a Financial Advice.
Turkish lira - correction !Turkish lira is near to its end, bow trading at 6.1096. Long term technical analysis shows corrections of this trend to S1 support level 5.9880, next target can be S2 level. This levels are calculating based on long term fibonacci retracement, also confirmation fo our analisys can be pattern wedge with trendlines T1-T2. Crossing of T1 will be a signal to sell USDTRY.
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.02.17On the Turkey side we have updates coming from the local banks, a lot of interest in USD exposure as TRY is set to suffer further via spillover effects. The EM FX is all centred around coronavirus flows and the knock-on impact this will have on global growth, here looking for a dip back towards the lows, a fresh sweep would make it very easy to trade going into the month end.
On the fundamental side, Turkey remains in rough shape, those bearish on Turkey should use this as an opportunity to add heavy bullish exposure with targets up towards the 7.80xx levels:
In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus headlines and the spillover effects on growth. Regular readers will know I have been a bear on Turkey for years, this environment will not attract any fresh RM inflows into Turkey - just take one look at the yields and the CBRT cutting cycle.
On the technical side, the extensive breakout we traded previously has unlocked 7.80xx for the year. Reassessment on the core bearish view is only required on a break of the 4th wave support located below at 5.4xx. The upside is wide open and will trigger the dominos in the collapse of Erdogan and Turkey as we know it.
We can use the long-term charts as our drivers to scale into swings more comfortably on the immediate term. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
ridethepig | Sticking The Knife In TRYTurkey continues to stand out on the EM FX board, USDTRY finding strong support at the 5.97xx with sizeable USD demand signals from local Turkish banks. These same banks will be quick to cover should we breach the 6.00 handle and vulnerable to a squeeze once engaged.
In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus headlines and the spillover effects on growth. Regular readers will know I have been a bear on Turkey for years, this environment will not attract any fresh RM inflows into Turkey - just take one look at the yields and the CBRT cutting cycle.
On the technical side, the breakout we traded unlocked 7.80xx for the year. Reassessment on the bearish view is only required on a break of the 4th wave support located below at 5.4xx. The upside is wide open and will trigger the dominos in the collapse of Erdogan and Turkey as we know it.
As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
USD/TRY: Yields, Resistance, and RSI Divergence Point Lower1) Potential double top forming on daily chart, near 6.00 round-number
2) US/TR 2-year yield differentials forming slight divergence
3) RSI forms a bearish divergence
4) Positioning and data support a stronger USD - possible headwind for the setup
5) Break above 6.00 invalidates the idea
TRY Troy Resources (ASX) - WeakTroy TRY resources is weak, I see zero sign of an uptrend beginning for the moment. MACD and RSI point downwards and we are coming to test a support line for the 5th time and for sure we will break it this time. the next level is -40% from here at the last known low from 1990. I put an alert at this level and wait to see the reaction and any divergence if it's still weak there - possible to go to 1.618 extension at .022.
ZOOM: TURKISH LIRA AGAINS DOLAR in 2020 - more power for economythat's a big Picture from my last Chart.
USD CAN DROP AFTER TRIPLE TOP.
Would buy real estate there before Prices will go up like 30-50% in coming years.
USDTRY is near Buy Zone!The price is near the Support/Resistance Zone.
We can open Buy if daily candle will close above.
Potential profit will be in 3...5 times bigger than risk.
Push like if you think this is a useful idea!
Before to trade my ideas make your own analyze.
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Thanks for your support!
ridethepig | USDTRY 2020 Macro MapWith the year almost up, a good time to update the USDTRY chart. Smart money has been tracking Turkish rates, the short end has been screaming weakness and markets not interest in any more BS with the dictator in charge. S400 remains a thorn in the shoe and blackmailing to close NATO bases is leaving a nasty aftertaste.
For those who have been tracking the previous swing, the underlying Lira weakness is set to continue over the coming years with an eventual grind towards the widely tracked 7.8xx target since 2018.
Expecting markets to remain on the back-foot as long as Erdogan remains at the helm, this will dislocate from the USD devaluation as simply the TRY side is far weaker... all short and medium term flows will lack follow through so targeting 6.00 in Q120, and 6.50 in Q420 seems reasonable. For those really wanting to stick the knife into the bearish TRY story 7.80 in 24m.
Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
Forex USDTRY 1DUSDTRY is bullish, moving in a rising channel and intertwined patterns&the probable of the Bearish Bat Pattern D leg's levels.. seems likely to rise probability on the medium-long term. Good luck!
