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USD/TRY 4H Looking for long tradeA . We can get a long trade if the price close above strong resistance channel at 5.8600 To: TP1: 5.9500 TP2 : 6.2000 stop lose : 5.7800 B. If the price breakdown upward channel we can get short trade or wait for new long trades from 5.64500 and 5.5100 with small stop lose This is not an investment recommendation or any call to buy or sell It is just an analysis based on a study of the history of price action Behavior , that may not be a necessarily reason for the success of the structure or repetition. So please make your decision based on your vision . To protect capital and manage your deals and trading successfully the maximum loss in each transaction for the same currency or commodity in the same direction should not exceed ( 2% ) of the capital . Good luck
Long
by Golden_Spiral
9
Disaster cooking in Turkey=> For those who believe in the bearish Turkey story, we are in the early stages of a 5th wave which we mentioned in our previous ideas... it can be seen clearly here and shows how the floodgates for the highs are wide open. From a technical perspective the 5th wave target, the first major target is 7.85 (assuming wave 5 is a 1.00 ratio in length of wave 1). Given the nature of this rally so far there is a very large chance this can extend well beyond the initial targets as far as the 2.168 extension above the highs. It is also worth noting for those following EW that the 5th wave usually marks new highs... confidence in this view will increase above the 161.8% so for those wanting a less aggressive entry you can sit tight and watch closely and good luck to those wanting to pull the trigger early for the next few Quarters in 2019. This is going to be a monstrous move and worth tracking for those interested in watching the EM collapse continue.
Long
by ridethepig
15
Global bond yields fall over fears of an economic recessionBond yield inversion Bond yields across the globe continued to decline this week, as bond traders offered the strongest indication yet that a global economic recession may be coming. The US ten-year bond yield dipped below the yield of the three-month Treasury bill for the first time in over seven years, while German and Japanese 10-year bond yields continued to plummet. Traditionally when Treasury yields start invert, the bond market is offering a signal that an economic recession is nearing. Financial markets also become fearful about the economy when yield inversion occurs, as bank lending becomes more difficult when short-term rates are higher than longer-term yields • The USDJPY pair is bearish while trading below the 110.90 level, key support is found at the 109.70 and 108.80 levels. • If the USDJPY pair trades above the 110.90 level, buyers may test towards the 111.10 and 111.68 resistance levels. RBNZ turn dovish The New Zealand dollar fell sharply lower against the US dollar and the Japanese yen currency this week after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand struck a dovish tone towards future rate increases. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said that the next rate move would likely be lower, as below trend inflation and worsening global growth weighed on the New Zealand economy. The change in policy language was seen as a major shift for the New Zealand central bank, who previously held a neutral stance towards rates. The NZDUSD pair tumbled on the news, as traders priced-in a rate cut from the RBNZ coming as soon as the third quarter of this year. • The NZDUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 0.6840 level, key support is found at the 0.6740 and 0.6685 levels. • If the NZDUSD pair trades above the 0.6840 level, buyers may test towards the 0.6860 and 0.6890 resistance levels. Brexit uncertainty increases The British pound remained volatile against the US dollar, and the Japanese yen this week, as UK lawmakers failed to find a way forward for Brexit. British Prime Minter Theresa May signaled that she would step down as Prime Minister once she has delivered Brexit for the people of the UK. The House of Commons Parliament continued to reject the third vote of Theresa May’s Brexit plan, despite being unable to reach an agreement on an alternative Brexit deal. The GBPUSD pair struggled to find buying interest above the 1.3200 level and settled back toward the lower end of its medium-term trading range. • The GBPUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 1.3100 level, key support is found at the 1.2975 and 1.2660 levels. • If the GBPUSD pair trades above the 1.3100 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3260 and 1.3388 levels. Lira’s woes continue The Turkish lira fell against the US dollar this week after the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey attempted to raise transaction costs in order to stop speculators short selling the nation’s currency. Traders looked past the action and sold the Turkish lira, as data revealed that the central bank had lost ten billion US dollars in currency reserves in just three weeks. The Turkish lira had plummeted by over five percent last week against the greenback, over fears about continued economic stresses inside emerging market economies. • The USDTRY pair is only bullish while trading below the 5.6454 level, key resistance is found at the 5.8445 and 6.1000 levels. • If the USDTRY pair trades below the 5.6454 level, sellers may test towards the 5.4220 and 5.2200 support levels.
by OctaFX_Official
Impulsive move in play for USDTRY Here we are witnessing a very interesting move taking place for the Turkish financial system. After finishing a clear corrective ABC sequence since the August highs we are now in the early stages of an impulsive move to finish the more broader 5th wave in a very large sequence. For those tracking the updates in USDTRY in the previous charts (see attached: "Starting 5th wave looks imminent..") this is the move we have been waiting for over the last few months. Finally it is here, time to stick the knife in and cause maximum pain for Turkey. The fact that we are rallying in an impulsive manner means we are going to eventually crack 6 + and possibly even 7.80 Continuing to watch with interest, all positions are fully loaded here as has been the case for months. Time to sit on our hands and enjoy the moves. Thanks
Long
by ridethepig
USDTRY Target double bottom reached, whats next. This analysis started from the lows 2 months ago and after a very slow completion of the double bottom, the neckline broke past week and in one sweep it went straight to it's target. It has been moving around a lot since, already made a 50% correction as well, so very dangerous asset to trade now. Many have asked me for an update on this one, so i am going to try, but to be honest, there is very little to go on here. Because it dropped so much already, there is not a flag or an H&S or something else to go on. Maybe that flag on the daily might be something to follow. Usually after a big move like this, we should see some another move up. Normally never just drops again to the neckline. So i can't really give a trade here, but my best guess is, seeing another move towards the red zone, possible even higher than the previous rally. But that zone is a big resistance area, so i would not assume it will simply break. Think it might take more movement between the 5.6 and 5.9/6 before another big move happens. So my advice would be, leave this one for what it is and find another pair to trade, or wait at least a day or 2 to see something develop first. I will try to update on this one if i see something. Previous analysis:
by botje11
13
USD/TRY long long longI believe the local election would help to the goverment for next few days and Mr. Albayrak has announced they will show the economic programme in April. But i think that programme will suck cause the Turkey have more serious economical and political problems like unemployment rate is most highest rate before the 2008, the inequality of the Turkish citizens are getting higher. And the biggest problem of Turkey is their growth depend their import products and it cause high number of current deficit. The low TRY would help Turkey to close that deficit. But they have to make reforms which they did in 2002,2003,2004. They should give attention and more care the relationship with USA, Russia and China. President Erdogan has blamed the Jp Morgan for last crash, it doesnt make any sense. If the goverment take reasonable and good positions i would revise my analysis but probably they not and thats my target on TL. Those are just my views not investment advisory.
Long
by alejandrofiles
USDTRY Double bottom, Part 3In my previous analysis i showed a possible flag pattern could be formed against the resistance of the double bottom neckline. So far that is exactly what happend. On the right we can see the shape of a triangle. All triangles can breakout both ways, but since this one is an ascending which is being formed against a resistance zone , it is more likely to see it break upwards. If that happens, we should see an acceleration towards 5.6/5.7, otherwise there will be a chance for a false breakout. If the triangle breaks down, we could see a test of the 5.4 or even to 5.34 if the first one breaks. So far the double bottom pattern is playing out as it should. The start was a bit slow, but we got a small acceleration the past 2 weeks. So the pattern looks legit so far. Target of the pattern is at the yellow circle. Previous analysis:
by botje11
6
TOPSY-TURVY TURKEY? $TURInteresting to note that despite the nice gains Turkish equities saw in January 2019 (+15.7%) to make up for December 2018 (-6.87%), the asset class has experienced some nasty losses in February (-3.63%) and March (-4.36% so far) - all of which are quickly eroding all YTD gains. Its the only EM market to have suffered such losses so far (rivaling that of South Africa). To add insult to injury, it appears that Turkish equities have had great difficult trying to break through its 50-Day EMA as well, indicating global equity investors are loosing faith in Turkish equities. To complicate matters even further, the Turkisk Lira (USD/TRY) has been down 3.46% against the US Dollar so far in 2019, putting further stress on the currency. In continuation from last year, it may mean that markets are trying to tell us something about the health of the Turkish economy for 2019. As global investors continue to shed Turkish assets throughout 2019, this is one space investors should be very wary of investing in over the next little while. We recommend caution against Turkish assets.
NASDAQ:TURShort
by EconomicsGlobal
TOPSY-TURVY TURKEY? $TUR $TRYUSDInteresting to note that despite the nice gains Turkish equities saw in January 2019 (+15.7%) to make up for December 2018 (-6.87%), the asset class has experienced some nasty losses in February (-3.63%) and March (-4.36% so far) - all of which are quickly eroding all YTD gains. Its the only EM market to have suffered such losses so far (rivaling that of South Africa). To add insult to injury, it appears that Turkish equities have had great difficult trying to break through its 50-Day EMA as well, indicating global equity investors are loosing faith in Turkish equities. To complicate matters even further, the Turkisk Lira (USD/TRY) has been down 3.46% against the US Dollar so far in 2019, putting further stress on the currency. In continuation from last year, it may mean that markets are trying to tell us something about the health of the Turkish economy for 2019. As global investors continue to shed Turkish assets throughout 2019, this is one space investors should be very wary of investing in over the next little while. We recommend caution against Turkish assets.
Short
by EconomicsGlobal