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USDTRY Double bottom, Part 2 In my previous analysis i showed a potential double bottom on the daily chart which has been playing out so far. The ideal entry, when the triangle would break on the low side, didn't happen. It simply broke upwards and continued the rally since. However, this rally has been very slow so far. It's not always bad, but at this point it needs to accelerate a big more. Like it has been doing the past week or so. Bulls need to show they want to attack the neckline of that double bottom (red zone on the left). So ideally we see a good move up this week, into the resistance zone and make a good bull flag there for a few days. If we see that happen, it will become more likely to see a continuation up for the coming few months. Previous analysis:
by botje11
7
USD/TRY - THE TURKS BETTER READ THISToday’s analysis for the USD/TRY starts from a look at the daily chart to get an idea of what the medium-term outlook is like. From the daily chart shown below, a key price level which is now acting as a medium-term resistance is identified. This is the site at which price found support three times in December 2018 (1, 2 and 3), as well as once in January 2019 (point 4). Having been broken in late January, the key price level that ranges around 5.2645 is expected to perform a role reversal to resist attempts by price to move to the upside. The active candle for the day has opened on a bullish note and is now testing this level. So even though the short-term bias for USD/TRY is bullish, we expect this price level to be tested several times in the course of the next few business days. But what is price doing for the day within the context of the daily candle that is already trading higher than its opening price of 5.2198? The first hourly chart is compressed to show the relationship of the current price to historical price action. Current price level is shown to be at the site of previous support areas as identified in the daily chart. However, we also see that other important price levels exist. Above the current price level of 5.2539, we have 5.3211 and 5.4022 as the next available resistance levels. We also see a trendline resistance that captures the highs of January 2019 price action. This trendline is expected to intersect the 5.3211 resistance in the near future, and this area will become relevant if the current resistance area is broken. For the day, we see that price has been resisted at the R2 pivot level, and price is currently pulling back to the R1 pivot. It is possible that price may retrace fully to the R1 pivot, from where buyers may renew the push to send the price of USD/TRY further upwards. Ideally, this move should be accompanied by an increase in the volume bars to confirm the move. Further support is provided by the 9-day EMA line, which is located directly under the existing candles and looks set to provide dynamic support to the price action. Any trades made to capitalize on short-term bullishness have to allow for retracements to viable support areas. Key areas to watch are: - The R1 support pivot at 5.2263. This was broken to the upside earlier today, but price was unable to breach R2 and has since stared to retrace back to R1. Role reversal is expected at this area. - With reference to the daily chart, price will need to break above the 5.2645 price area with at least a 3% upside penetration (accompanied by an increase in buying volume), for the door to be opened for a chase of the 5.3211 resistance. - The blue trendline that captures the lows of January 2019’s price action will serve as a support zone on the daily chart, if price fails to break the current daily resistance area.
Short
by Chris_WCX
Short USDTRY on continued US govt shutdownSell USDTRY on continued US govt shutdown and poor global growth data lowering the chance of US central bank raising interest rates further. Rates markets including cash and derivatives are pricing in at most 21% chance of a rate hike from summer 2019 onwards. Why does this matter? Emerging markets fund their budgets in USD and as US rates increase EM funding costs increase putting downward pressure on the economy. As the US shut down continues the chances of a US recession increase lowering any probability of a rate rise. On technical front downside momentum has been continuing since middle of January with a series of lower highs and lower lows and we now look set to test month lows. A close on the daily below 5.279 low of January 2nd opens up downside to test 5.20 area then a move to 5.15 November lows which we are looking to hit over next month should sentiment and growth data continue on current trajectory.
Short
by forexTrdr
USDTRY: The story how to record historical lows againExpected trend: Bearish Target: 4.3000 Risk: 5.7800 Technical reasons: The USDTRY pair started a bullish correction after placing 5.13 low, it stopped at 23.6% Fibonacci correction level, to rebound downwards again. The last move inside an ascending channel is considered as a bearish flag that supports the chances of continuing the bearish trend on the short term and medium term basis. All the price needs now is to break 5.25 to confirm triggering a new bearish wave, supporting the chances of achieving the double top pattern’s target at 4.30. We need to consider that surpassing 5.69 then 5.78 levels is considered as the key to achieve new gains that start at 6.00 then 6.20.
Short
by FXHighway
Descending triangle - BitcoinThe Descending Triangle This pattern indicates that sellers are more aggressive than buyers, and is usually resolved on the downside. The measuring technique is that the analyst must measure the height of the pattern at the base to the left and then project that distance down from the breakdown point. The Volume Pattern The volume pattern in descending triangles is that the volume diminishes as the pattern works itself out and then increases on the breakout. During the formation the chartist can detect subtle shifts in the volume pattern coinciding with the swings in the price action. This means that in the ascending pattern, the volume tends to be slightly heavier on bounces and lighter on dips. In the descending formation, volume should be heavier on the downside and lighter during the bounces. The Time Factor in Triangles One final factor to be considered on the subject of triangles is that of the time dimension. The triangle is considered an intermediate pattern, meaning that it usually takes longer than a month to form, but generally less than three months. Bitcoin bottom = $3,400
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Btcharlatan
1
GBPTRY: Triangle sequence showing sell towards 6.5100.The pair has been trading on a strong 1W downtrend (Highs/Lows = -0.4121, B/BP = -0.5351) that recently appears to be slowing down. This may be an indication of a support on the 1W level (6.2070 - 6.5610). However a sequence of repetitive Triangle patterns illustrates that at least a -3.54% decline is expected to follow the completion of the most recent Triangle. This puts our short TP at 6.5100. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Short
by InvestingScope
2