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My Next Long Term Position TRYJPY LongI am slowly building a big long position in TRY/JPY pair. Turkish Lira is quite under-valuated at these levels and despite the recent strength of Japanese Yen I think in the long run JPY will weaken across the board. This is a carry trade position which will bring lot of interest while running. At 8.5% current interest rate of Turkish Lira outperform almost all peers in the world and with inflation and demographics of Turkey slowly going down I think soon we will see a major trend reversal here with significant strengthening of the Lira by more than 10-15%.
Turkish counterattackThe cross may have touched his top and start descending
A negative pressure accross the USD help the fall.
The fall is supported by a descending dynamic trend line.
A negative long term market pressure (-6.1) confirm the downtrend
A negative short term market pressure (-6.3) confirm that the fall is in act
A really good positive swap for short positions will help the down trend
On my twitter profile twitter.com you can find everyday the market pressure value for all crosses.
Have a nice trading !
#USDTRY next target: 3.77Since mid-September 2017, USDTRY is in a new impulsive wave. The price correction in the first two weeks of October was the 1st and current downtrend, started in 21st November, is 2nd corrective waves.
I think USDTRY will continue to soften to 3.70-3.80 range. 3.70 is quite unlikely but if there will not be any extraordinary matters then a correction to fib 0.382-0.50 seems likely.
USDTRY OPPUTUNITY WITHIN RANGETrading method: RSADVANTAGE Stage 5, accurate system manually forward tested over 3 years designed to stay out of ranging markets and only target strong trends suited for swing trading. This system is made of custom adaptive volume indicators and Oscillators that properly detect trends very early and provides exit signals at dynamic S/R zones once the trend has ended. // Average yearly pips gained is 40k per pair on D1 charts alone.
USDTRY
To open long positions for usdtry , it is required:
In this situation our system indicators to confirm trade entry confirmation for movement to the upside and but if the market trend continues to range this signal will become invalid and we can see this pair fall to 3.76800. Market execution for entry, I will confirm signal once the conditions have been met.
Risk Description: Once signal is confirmed 668 pips will be up for grab with small risk SL at swing low.
Profit expectations: 1-4 day trade length expected before hitting profit target I will post exit strategy when signal receives a exit signal.
USD/TRY Dear treaders,,,
After we had nice 4h trend line we broke below that line at the price 3.92 we had test back but rejections was strong.
short trade is a long time frame i am going to hold this for few week.
SL at 3.89 is good enough as if we break that level then we will see 4$ shortley.
Good luck All ,,,
NOTE : I will update this soon.
USD/TRY 4H Chart: Short term decline in progressThe US Dollar is one of the many currencies, which are gaining strength against the Turkish Lira. Although the most patterns are similar on the pairs that involve the currency of Turkey, there are minor differences.
In regards to the USD/TRY currency exchange rate the most notable difference is the fact that the pair is a the moment trading in a junior channel down pattern. The pattern is set to guide the currency pair down to the support of the most dominant pattern near the 3.90 mark.
Afterwards a continuation of the long term surge can be expected.
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Lira moves away from historic lowThe Turkish Lira has been trading in a channel down against the Japanese Yen for the last three months.
During this time, a new descending channel was formed. After failing to edge down to the bottom boundary of the senior pattern last week, the Lira reached its ultimate low of 28.00 and reversed to the upside.
Meanwhile, the pair breaching the shorter-term pattern yesterday might point to appreciation in both short and medium term; however, the upper line of the senior channel is yet to be breached circa 28.60.
It is likely that the pair edges lower in this session and tries to make a retracement from the breached channel. However, the combined support of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs at 28.35 should limit further loses. This area is expected to mark a point of reversal from which the Lira might start its momentum north.
EUR/TRY 4H Chart: Euro at new heightsThe common European currency continues to book new high levels against the Turkish Lira. On all timeframes and scales the currency pair is surging and it has been like that for a few years.
In the short term the pair is set to continue the surge. It should occur after the currency exchange rate finds support in a combined support cluster near the 4.66 mark.
Afterwards the Euro will have the range up to the 4.7930 level free from resistance against the Turkish currency.
EUR/TRY 1H Chart: Pair trades near long-term channelThe common European currency continues its long-term appreciation against the Turkish Lira. As a result, the pair is constantly pushing its ultimate high northwards.
During the past three months, the Euro is stranded in an ascending wedge. However, it seems that a breakout is likely to occur soon, as the upper boundary of this pattern has been unreachable for the last week and a half. In addition, the rate has approached the upper boundary of a senior channel circa 4.57 which has bounded the rate since mid-2014. Along the way, the Euro faces a strong resistance of the weekly and monthly R1 at 4.55.
Given the pair’s long-term appreciation, it would not be surprising if this bullish movement continues to prevail. However, it is more likely that a pair retraces from the senior channel just to cool off its high levels.
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Wedge near maturityThe Turkish Lira has been stranded in two major patterns against the Japanese Yen. The dominant one is a descending triangle which was formed as early as mid-2016. Meanwhile, a more recent one is a falling wedge. It has constrained the rate in a downward-sloping movement for the last three months as a result of which the Lira moved slightly below its 2017 low of 29.10 early in this session.
The rate might still edge lower down to the 28.90 area where the bottom wedge boundary and the weekly S2 are located. In the unlikely event of a strong downside momentum, the rate might also fall until the monthly S2 and the weekly S3 at 28.35 are reached.
By and large, the wedge should be breached to the upside during the following trading sessions, as it points to soon maturity. The scope of a subsequent surge is not yet clear. The monthly PP is located at the relatively distant 30.40 mark, while there are various weekly pivot points along the way.
Usd/Try ShortAll negatives are all most likely priced in already
Notes:
-Curently just below strong resistance
-Mike Pence meeting with Turkish PM on Thursday so watch out
-TCMB member recently noted that Inflation will most likely be overshooting until December
- 7-8 December will be EU-Turkish economic cooperation meeting
-VISA situation still not fully resolved
-Good economic results, except Inflation
-monitor DXY
USD/TRY 1H Chart: US Dollar near 2017 highAfter reaching its ultimate high of 3.9217 in January this year, USD/TRY was set for a price decline.
This situation changed in early September when the pair reversed to the upside once again. Thus, an ascending wedge was formed.
The rate was trading near its highest mark since January on Wednesday when it reversed from the 3.90 mark. During this movement, the pair failed to reach the upper line of the steep wedge. This might indicate that a downside breakout might be in sight.
In case the current sentiment is to prevail, this breakout might occur late on Friday. However, given the minor potential until 3.9217, the Greenback might still push higher for a few sessions, possibly up to the monthly R1 at 3.9262.
It is possible that the pair hinders near the bottom wedge boundary for several hours prior to breaching it. However, when breached, a quite significant fall should be expected.