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TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Lira stranded in two patternsThe Turkish Lira has been weakening against the Japanese Yen during the past week, thus forming a falling wedge. This pattern was formed as a part of a senior ascending channel valid since early January. The pair bounced off the bottom boundaries of both patterns late on yesterday, thus testing its six-month low at 20.65. From theoretical point of view, the Lira should remain stable, breach the junior pattern and edge higher towards the 32.40 area in the medium term. In order to realise this scenario, the rate has to overcome a significant resistance area set by the monthly S3, weekly S2 and S1 and the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs in the 30.15/50 territory. Even though some hindrance is likely to occur along the way, the pair should be able to overcome this area and appreciate during the following weeks. The southern side is limited solely by the aforementioned six-month low.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Rate narrows trading rangeFollowing the massive plunge on October 8, TRY/JPY entered a period of consolidation in the result of which an ascending wedge was formed. The rate tested its lower boundary late on Monday and has since re-gained some lost positions. Taking into account that this pattern was preceded by a wave down, a breakout should occur to the downside. As apparent on the chart, the rate is facing a resistance of the 200-, 100– and 55-hour SMAs, the 38.2% Fibo, the weekly PP and the monthly S2 in the 30.70/80 territory. This significant area is likely to hinder or even halt the pair from moving higher. Thus, it is more likely that the rate moves lower during this trading week, setting the weekly S2 and the monthly S3 at 13.16 as a possible downside target.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/TRY 1H Chart: Greenback between two patternsFollowing a massive upward leap of the USD/TRY exchange rate late in October 8, the rate has retreated slightly, thus standing near the 3.67 mark early on Friday. This downward-sloping movement has formed a falling wedge in the bounds of which the US Dollar is trading in a short-term channel up. The rate has diminished its trading range and is currently located between the boundaries of these patterns. The wedge should be breached to the upside; however, the Greenback might still test its lower boundary once more prior to surging north. This scenario might occur, as the rate faces a strong resistance of the 100-, 200– and 55-hour SMAs right on the upper wedge boundary. In case this level is breached, the channel should be respected, thus moving the rate towards the monthly R2 near the 3.72 mark during next week.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
Turkish Lira gave a devaluation signal on the monthly chartTom Demark count gave a green 2 on the monthly chart. This is a clear buy signal. This happens very rare on a monthly level. Green 2 on a monthly chart means we will have up to 7 months of uptrend. Weekly and daily charts confirms this as well. Previous ATH was 3.94320, I expect this will be broken soon, as double tops near ATH are unicorns. In the upcoming weeks or months a major devaluation of Turkish Lira is possible.
Long
by EylemCulculoglu
5
USD/TRY forms triangleUSD/TRY was trading in a short-term ascending channel prior to breaching this pattern on Tuesday. This breakout south should point to a possible price decline in the upcoming trading sessions. The pair falling below the 55– and 100-hour SMAs adds some ground to the bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, the pair is currently trading in a symmetrical triangle which has already provided two confirmations on each side. In line with the bearish perspective, the Greenback should breach the bottom triangle boundary later in the evening and edge lower. In the short term, the bottom target could be set near the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA circa 3.55. Conversely, the rate could still try to test the upper triangle boundary once again prior to fulfilling the aforementioned scenario.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/TRY hinders near channel boundaryThe common European currency has been trading against the Turkish Lira in two ascending channels simultaneously. The junior pattern was formed as a result of the rate remaining at a relatively stable position during the past two weeks. As apparent on the chart, the Euro has failed to overcome a resistance area located near the 4.2189 mark. During the last trading hours, the rate has been stranded in a narrow range between the 100– and 200-hour SMAs; thus, a breakout might occur in any direction. In case the pair succeeds at surpassing the 100-hour SMA and the weekly PP circa 4.20, it might appreciate until the aforementioned resistance area. The base scenario, however, favours a soon movement southwards. This would comply with characteristics of the senior channel. In addition, it is apparent that the pair has failed to reach the upper boundary of the junior pattern during the last week. The closest downside target is the weekly S1 at 4.1701.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/TRY trades in overbought areaThe bearish sentiment that had dominated the market since early August was reversed last week when the US Dollar started to appreciate against the Turkish Lira. As a result, a short-term ascending wedge was formed. Trend indicators suggest that the up-trend is still solid; however, other types of indicators favour a possible downside momentum. In case it is only a minor correction against the general trend, the fall should be limited by the 23.6% Fibo and the weekly R1 near 3.4495. On the other hand, traders should bear in mind that the breakout on September 12 might be followed by a retracement down to the upper channel boundary. This level coincides with the 200– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP. By and large, the ascending wedge is likely to be breached in the following hours. From theoretical point of view, it should happen to the downside, thus favouring a decline down to the 3.42/43 area.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/TRY 1H Chart: Channel DownThe recent depreciation of the US Dollar against the Turkish Lira has confined the rate in a short-term descending channel. For most of the time, the rate remained in the upper part of the given pattern until Friday when a speech of the Fed Chair Yellen resulted in a plunge for the American currency. The pair has since returned in the middle of the pattern and is demonstrating limited volatility. It has finally managed to pass the previously-challenging 55-hour SMA from below. Likewise, technical indicators are signaling to a soon recovery of the strongly bearish sentiment. Thus, it might be expected that the rate pushes for the upper channel boundary in the 3.46/48 territory. Nevertheless, traders may start to shake the market either direction in anticipation of US fundamentals even before their official release.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690