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TRY (Turkish Lira)

Ascending scallopNote USDTRY's 92 percent negative correlation with Crude Oil on weekly. Crude oil needs to to trend up for USDTRY to fall. Long terms trends seem to be effected by Crude Oil, as is the case with Mexican Peso and Thai Bath with which heavily Lira correlates (90 and 88 percent). It also has 97 positive correlation with the Natural Gas (XNGUSD) on 4 hrs. Price formed ascending scallop pattern (Lira trends in scallop series), classified as short term bullish continuation pattern. Ascending scallop reversals perform better than continuations. Narrow scallops take less time to reach ultimate high than short ones. Tall patterns perform better than short ones. Scallops get narrower and shorter when compared with prior scallops in series. For more, refer to Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart patterns. Chapter 41. Scallops, Ascending. Price is moving in rising channel. Uptrend on weekly. Intermediate pullback. For trend change, channel needs to be broken to the downside. Since price broke May roof it should eventually hit R5 (7.42) - I marked the target. But first we should reach weekly S5, after breaking weekly support S4. Price below May A down pivot and will make a loop swing below it. The size of that loop might vary. The loop's bottom will be either at weekly S5 or at yearly R4. Top correlation 4 hrs 1 USDTRY - EURTRY 99.0% 2 USDTRY - GBPTRY 97.2% 3 USDTRY - EURCZK -92.2% 4 USDTRY - USDTHB 87.5% 5 USDTRY - XNGUSD 87.2% 6 USDTRY - USDCZK -85.8% 7 USDTRY - GBPCHF 84.1% 8 USDTRY - EURGBP -84.1% 9 USDTRY - GBPCAD 82.2% 10 USDTRY - GBPNOK 81.6% Top correlation 1 day 1 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.2% 2 USDTRY - EURJPY -91.3% 3 USDTRY - AUDNZD 88.9% 4 USDTRY - CHFJPY -88.4% 5 USDTRY - AUDCAD 87.4% 6 USDTRY - AUDCHF 86.5% 7 USDTRY - EURTRY 83.6% 8 USDTRY - AUDSGD 83.3% 9 USDTRY - AUDUSD 81.2% 10 USDTRY - EURSGD -80.3% Top correlation 1 week 1 USDTRY - GBPMXN 95.0% 2 USDTRY - XTIUSD -92.9% 3 USDTRY - XBRUSD -92.8% 4 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.5% 5 USDTRY - EURTRY 92.5% 6 USDTRY - USDZAR 92.3% 7 USDTRY - EURZAR 91.5% 8 USDTRY - NOKSEK -91.5% 9 USDTRY - USDMXN 90.1% 10 USDTRY - CADCHF -89.7%
Long
by ICFX
7
ridethepig | TRY Capitulating...The struggle for democracy is being carried out and as long as Erdogan remains at the helm there is only one direction for TRY. Autocrats are typically sticky in nature and difficult to remove, the attack should first be aimed at the currency which will be the base of the capitulation. Attacking the 7.8 will break local bank and looks imminent as markets receive the USD via safe haven flows. Example: After the technical break of the resistance the swing formation seems to be self fulfilling. So, according to the plan we attacked immediately and that is now clear in the outflows by... If you wish to undermine democracy; you tend to try to blow up the foundations of capitalism. The natural restructuring of markets will always follow automatically and hence it is only a matter of time before we see 7.80 and Turkish banks capitulating. After Erdogan, the IMF bailouts will have different possibilities. Turkey's plan can be seen at its clearest now that fears of coronavirus have coupled alongside the Saudi / Russia oil action. Remember, Turkey is an importer of Oil ... so with Oil now flirting with a break towards $20 (see diagram) the logical development will be to destroy the highs in USDTRY. Very simple. Continue to work longs on the first dip you see. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the discussion with your views on TRY!
Long
by ridethepig
7
Market News and Charts for August 12, 2019USD/TRY The pair was seen trading at the tip of the “Falling Wedge” pattern and was expected to continue going down in the following days. The 2016 failed Turkish coup attempt started the end of the relationship between the United States and Turkey. The coup was led by U.S.-based preacher Fethullah Gulen within the Turkish military. Three (3) years after the failed coup, Turkey had its first delivery of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, which the U.S. allies said will compromise the defense sharing agreement of the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) Alliance. The second batch of delivery was expected to be finish this August. Aside from this, Turkey is mulling to purchase Russian SU-35 fighter jets after the U.S. expelled Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program in response to its acquisition of Russia’s S-400. However, the Turkey-U.S. relationship might enter into a new low after Turkey loaned $1 billion from China.
by Financebroker