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TRY

ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.02.17On the Turkey side we have updates coming from the local banks, a lot of interest in USD exposure as TRY is set to suffer further via spillover effects. The EM FX is all centred around coronavirus flows and the knock-on impact this will have on global growth, here looking for a dip back towards the lows, a fresh sweep would make it very easy to trade going into the month end. On the fundamental side, Turkey remains in rough shape, those bearish on Turkey should use this as an opportunity to add heavy bullish exposure with targets up towards the 7.80xx levels: In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus headlines and the spillover effects on growth. Regular readers will know I have been a bear on Turkey for years, this environment will not attract any fresh RM inflows into Turkey - just take one look at the yields and the CBRT cutting cycle. On the technical side, the extensive breakout we traded previously has unlocked 7.80xx for the year. Reassessment on the core bearish view is only required on a break of the 4th wave support located below at 5.4xx. The upside is wide open and will trigger the dominos in the collapse of Erdogan and Turkey as we know it. We can use the long-term charts as our drivers to scale into swings more comfortably on the immediate term. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Sticking The Knife In TRYTurkey continues to stand out on the EM FX board, USDTRY finding strong support at the 5.97xx with sizeable USD demand signals from local Turkish banks. These same banks will be quick to cover should we breach the 6.00 handle and vulnerable to a squeeze once engaged. In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus headlines and the spillover effects on growth. Regular readers will know I have been a bear on Turkey for years, this environment will not attract any fresh RM inflows into Turkey - just take one look at the yields and the CBRT cutting cycle. On the technical side, the breakout we traded unlocked 7.80xx for the year. Reassessment on the bearish view is only required on a break of the 4th wave support located below at 5.4xx. The upside is wide open and will trigger the dominos in the collapse of Erdogan and Turkey as we know it. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
USD/TRY aiming at 6.00? More weakness ahead for wounded liraOnce again, the lira is poised for weakness. - The USD/TRY pair triggered an inverse H&S pattern, projecting a profit target at the 6.20 mark, with an intermediary target at 6.00 (round-number + horizontal resistance zone). - The pair completed a pullback to the broken neckline, validating the inverse H&S pattern. - A shorter-term horizontal support level lies around the 6.89 level - The US is likely going to impose new sanctions on Turkey, following the Turkey - Syria conflict (lira negative). - Wars are expensive, and Turkey's external debt is already near record-highs (lira negative). Please hit the "LIKE" button and support us if you find this short analysis useful. Thanks!
Long
by MujkanovicFX
2
ridethepig | USDTRY 2020 Macro MapWith the year almost up, a good time to update the USDTRY chart. Smart money has been tracking Turkish rates, the short end has been screaming weakness and markets not interest in any more BS with the dictator in charge. S400 remains a thorn in the shoe and blackmailing to close NATO bases is leaving a nasty aftertaste. For those who have been tracking the previous swing, the underlying Lira weakness is set to continue over the coming years with an eventual grind towards the widely tracked 7.8xx target since 2018. Expecting markets to remain on the back-foot as long as Erdogan remains at the helm, this will dislocate from the USD devaluation as simply the TRY side is far weaker... all short and medium term flows will lack follow through so targeting 6.00 in Q120, and 6.50 in Q420 seems reasonable. For those really wanting to stick the knife into the bearish TRY story 7.80 in 24m. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
Long
by ridethepig
5
Gold - Daily Forecast Hello traders, welcome back. This is my new channel and I hope to enjoy. Lets Go straight to the chart, I am a trader who create 2 scenarios to adapt to the price action. First case, if the gold/usd break the first trend line we will wait to break the big triangle (on the second trend line as well). If this happens we will put our take profit on the horizontal resistances that I have marked and more. Second scenario, if the 'Double Bottom" formation doesn't work and the daily strong support break, the we will SELL the commodity to the downside target. Please if you agree with my idea like and follow I will follow you back. Thank You.
FX:XAUUSD
by John_Vasilopoulos
GBPTRY: Short opportunity within a Descending Triangle.The pair is comming off a rejection on the Lower High trend line of the 1M Descending Triangle (RSI = 60.943, MACD = 0.510, Highs/Lows = 0.000). Based on the previous Lower High made and the RSI it traded, we are expecting a stronger decline towards the previous low. Our sell Target Zone is 6.87000 - 7.00000. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Short
by InvestingScope
2
USDTRY: Channel Up on 1D. Buy opportunity.The pair is trading within a Channel Up on 1D (RSI = 62.022, MACD = 0.054, Highs/Lows = 0.0493) since the August bottom. It is currently in the process of pulling back for a Higher Low and that will be our opportunity to buy. TP = 6.1000. Notice how when the RSI turns sideways it denotes a Channel pattern, both on the downtrend and uptrend. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Long
by InvestingScope