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ridethepig | TRY Q3 Macro Flows 📌 The buyers constitute a formidable opponent holding the breakup and putting sellers out of action. The moves are ready, to fend off another wave of risk looks impossible now and Turkey will suffer a major hammer that may be unendurable for local banks. A break above 7.20xx will unlock the widely track 7.80xx since last year. If buyers hold (and it looks a done deal now) for this monthly closing pattern it means we are ready to march forward in August and September to cripple EM FX. But if sellers hold at the end (seems very difficult with USD shortages entering back into play) then buyers are kept busy. Naturally continue to follow the macro strategy, on account of the 2020 macro flow map: Another move that would be difficult for Turkey to defend against. If you are bearish, continue sticking the knife in via buying USDTRY because it would no longer be possible to prevent the settling above 7.20xx. 📍 The other important note to make is the lack of foreign inflows... rather the opposite, heavy outflows continue with overseas participation in Turkish bonds now at record lows, as is usually the case in the end of dictatorships. There is nowhere for the CBRT to hide.. they will have to devalue the TRY to offset the loss in access to markets. Take a look over at EURTRY which is still up at ATH's ... this retrace is profit taking in the dollar train rather than Turkey stabilisation. Stay long, look for 7.80xx as the main macro target by year-end. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
EUR / TRY 7/6/2020Welcome to this analysis on Euro / Turkish Lira. EUR / TRY has been in a massive macro uptrend since 2019, It paused around the highs of the previous uptrend cycle of 2018 at 7.850. Since the 7th of May, the market has gone sideways, it had a pullback to 7.35, re accumulated there, and bounce back to the previous high. Looking at the structure, it looks like it has made a Symmetrical triangle pattern which can also be a handle of a Cup And Handle continuation patter if price closes above the previous high at 7.85. The target of the triangle is at 7.9 and the target of the Cup And Handle is around 8.25. The 2 levels of resistance above the current price are the previous high at 7.85 which used to be a daily close high of the 2018 cycle as well and above that the psychological 8 level which is also the wick highs of 2018 cycle. This trade idea has 2 rewards to risk if it hits the triangle's target and 5.5 R if it hits the target of the Cup And Handles. Good luck trading.
Long
by Trader_Shayan
2
USD/TRY 7/6/2020Welcome to this analysis on USD/TRY. USD/TRY has established an uptrend from the 2nd of June till the 17th of June, Since then it has been trading in a tight rectangle range between 6.834 and 6.858 which broke to the upside before the market close last week. Currently, it looks like it is finding support above the range which can be a sign of continuation of the previous uptrend as long as it holds the 6.850 as support. The level of resistance above the current price the gap around 6.9 and the next one above that is going to be around 6.94. This trade idea has 2 rewards to risk ratio if it hits the first target and 5.5 R if it hits the 2nd target. Good luck trading.
Long
by Trader_Shayan
#XU030 #BIST30 #VIOP - #ErayErgunBasitlik en iyi ve kararlı analiz şeklidir. Grafikte de görüldüğü gibi düzeltme beklentisindeyim. Pandemiden dolayı oluşan düşüşün yukarı yönlü düzeltmesi tamamlandı diyebiliriz, sırada bu soluksuz yukarı çıkışın hafif bir düzeltme yapması. Bunda en etkili olan şeyler sırasıyla; Kar alma, yabancı yatırımcı kaçışı, MSCI'ın üstümüzde kurmaya çalıştığı baskı, 2. Dalga Tehlikesi ki bu en önemlisi diyebilirim.
BIST:XU030
by Emp4radoTR
#USDTRY - Kısa - Orta VadeDolarTL 1 saatlik grafiğe göre konsolidasyon yapmış durumda. Günlük ve Haftalık grafiklere bakarsanız orda da sıkışmalar yaşandığını görebilirsiniz. Bu sıkışmanın yukarı yönlü kırılabileceğini rahatlıkla söyleyebilirim. Bunda etken olan olarak Türkiye piyasasından kaçan yabancı yatırımcıların yüksek etkisi var. Önümüzdeki 10 günü(25.06.2020 - 04.07.2020) dikkatle takip edilmesi ve ona göre pozisyon almamız oldukça önemli
by Emp4radoTR
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.06.15📍 The panic leg here is because we are reaching the endgame in the economic cycle. There is a risk of Turkish banks defaulting on this leg so watch-out for any exposure to specific sectors. If the operation demonstrated is a successful attack, then we have the final ✅ for those trading the macro move called last year: EM FX looks extremely vulnerable for any overshoots on the risk front, local banks have been attempting to protect the 6.80x, if we can hold for today then we will start to see momentum kicking in. Turkey looks awful on the fundamental front and political too, a complete disaster mismanagement of the crisis. The main thing is that 7.80x should be restrained via Fed => the attack on the final base can be brutal .. let's see if it plays out.
Long
by ridethepig
6
USD/TRY in a Rising wedge.Hey, I am back with another Forex idea as I said, that I will deliver a one Forex Idea every working day. Let's get into chart. Basically USD/TRY has printed a rising wedge which is considered as bearish pattern and is expecting the price to see a spike down. RSI has also printed a bear flag, overall this seems like a good trade. Don't forget to follow me, to not miss out on a good trade opportunities😉 Each Like is very much appreciated! 🙌
Short
by TiborVrbovsky
1
Don't miss the great buy opportunity in EURTRYTrading suggestion: . There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (7.4706). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets. Technical analysis: . EURTRY is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 71. Take Profits: TP1= @ 7.5998 TP2= @ 7.6507 TP3= @ 7.8517 SL= Break below S2
Long
by ForecastCity
23
ridethepig | Thoughts and Themes in TurkeySwings and position building We have witnessed a tremendous amount of profit taking after clearing the 7.23 targets in USDTRY and are arriving back into major support territory. The pick-up in local activity was notable as banks were forced to defend the TRY. Many clients I speak to are happy to continue buying USDTRY , the picture looks gloomy for Turkey and real money continues to sit on the bid. On the monetary side, the CBRT cutting by 50bps was widely expected although wont make much difference at this stage. EM FX will remain under pressure if we see a broad risk-off environment this week. Keeping a close ear to the wires for any updates on swap lines, those looking for positioning in USDTRY should always think about loading in a safe place. Such a shelter will render us a superb shelter when the storm hits shore... A massive 30% macro swing after an obvious mistake from Erdogan. Turkey will remain sluggish until they expose the issues underneath, the correct idea would be to put pressure on CBRT which is what markets are doing and show no signs of stopping in the Short-term. Here 7.80 would be the measured target in the shelter then profit taking can begin again. As with any swing, it is important we assess the downside to see if we find something which is to our advantage. The dollar devaluation is the only technique that the Fed can construct, the only defence left in the toolkit is -ve rates and like a scout putting up his tent we must prepare. Depending on how quickly markets begin to price negative rates in USD, we may fail to complete the mission towards 7.80.
Long
by ridethepig
3
#USDTRY spotted in a Bear flag.Hey, I am back with another idea, this time looking at Forex pair of USD/TRY USD/TRY pair has been spotted in a bear flag, which is considered as bearish formation, strong in downtrend and also as the EMA's are getting tighter, there is move likely to happen soon at this level. I would short this pair at the resistance area. Have a good luck with trading, don't forget to stick to your strategy. Each new follower and like is very much appreciated! 🙌
Short
by TiborVrbovsky
1
Trias Breaks Above Resistance (Project Overview)About Trias TRIAS aims to create a new-generation public chain that will support the execution of general-purpose native-applications on all platforms. Source: Coinmarketcap.com Website: www.trias.one --------- Trias (TRYBTC) made a strong move yesterday growing over 180%. Resistance was found at EMA200 and prices are starting to retrace. We are likely to see another try at this resistance soon and even higher, on the next jump TRYBTC can hit up to EMA300 or 0.0000002927. This is not financial advice. You still need a plan if you decide to trade. The charts are always changing and can change completely with just 1 candle, so it is good to be prepared. Namaste.
T
by AlanSantana
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.04.29All eyes on risk markets and the recent rebound reaching its final stages of exhaustion. USDTRY not giving any gains back, continuing to attack the 7.00 important psychological resistance. Buyers calmly finishing their preparations for an appropriate welcome of the next risk headline, while local banks try everything they can to defend. Happy to sit long USDTRY, if we do not see concrete measures around the Fed swap line then expect macro players to stick the knife into Turkey once more. There is little to see to the downside, I will actively look to add longs on any dips should we see them towards 6.90xx otherwise to the topside we have very very soft resistance at 7.00. A break above will open 7.235x and 7.80x main targets. The move played is a demonstration of a winning macro one, the main line comes down to the pursuit of safety; capital is forced to flee a dictatorship, but the flight itself can be beset with difficulties as more and varied restrictions are conjured. Tread extremely carefully for those invested in Turkey. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
Ascending scallopNote USDTRY's 92 percent negative correlation with Crude Oil on weekly. Crude oil needs to to trend up for USDTRY to fall. Long terms trends seem to be effected by Crude Oil, as is the case with Mexican Peso and Thai Bath with which heavily Lira correlates (90 and 88 percent). It also has 97 positive correlation with the Natural Gas (XNGUSD) on 4 hrs. Price formed ascending scallop pattern (Lira trends in scallop series), classified as short term bullish continuation pattern. Ascending scallop reversals perform better than continuations. Narrow scallops take less time to reach ultimate high than short ones. Tall patterns perform better than short ones. Scallops get narrower and shorter when compared with prior scallops in series. For more, refer to Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart patterns. Chapter 41. Scallops, Ascending. Price is moving in rising channel. Uptrend on weekly. Intermediate pullback. For trend change, channel needs to be broken to the downside. Since price broke May roof it should eventually hit R5 (7.42) - I marked the target. But first we should reach weekly S5, after breaking weekly support S4. Price below May A down pivot and will make a loop swing below it. The size of that loop might vary. The loop's bottom will be either at weekly S5 or at yearly R4. Top correlation 4 hrs 1 USDTRY - EURTRY 99.0% 2 USDTRY - GBPTRY 97.2% 3 USDTRY - EURCZK -92.2% 4 USDTRY - USDTHB 87.5% 5 USDTRY - XNGUSD 87.2% 6 USDTRY - USDCZK -85.8% 7 USDTRY - GBPCHF 84.1% 8 USDTRY - EURGBP -84.1% 9 USDTRY - GBPCAD 82.2% 10 USDTRY - GBPNOK 81.6% Top correlation 1 day 1 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.2% 2 USDTRY - EURJPY -91.3% 3 USDTRY - AUDNZD 88.9% 4 USDTRY - CHFJPY -88.4% 5 USDTRY - AUDCAD 87.4% 6 USDTRY - AUDCHF 86.5% 7 USDTRY - EURTRY 83.6% 8 USDTRY - AUDSGD 83.3% 9 USDTRY - AUDUSD 81.2% 10 USDTRY - EURSGD -80.3% Top correlation 1 week 1 USDTRY - GBPMXN 95.0% 2 USDTRY - XTIUSD -92.9% 3 USDTRY - XBRUSD -92.8% 4 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.5% 5 USDTRY - EURTRY 92.5% 6 USDTRY - USDZAR 92.3% 7 USDTRY - EURZAR 91.5% 8 USDTRY - NOKSEK -91.5% 9 USDTRY - USDMXN 90.1% 10 USDTRY - CADCHF -89.7%
Long
by ICFX
7