TRY
START OF THE WEEK (9 Sep - 13 Sep 2019) GUIDE | IT's A SHORT!See chart for illustration
This is a follow up on a long term speculation published earlier ( see link below for reference purpose)
Hard Times on USD/TRYBecause of Turkey Political Risks and Central Bank Movements TRY value is decreasing against USD. Technically 5.83 is the critical level and it should be followed. Short can be tried in there with close stop. If this level breaks long can be open.
XAU/TRY All Times HighBecause fo TRY decrasinng Gold trend XUA/TRY reached all times high. Short can ben trien from here close stop level. if this level breaks we can %5-7 up from this level.
USDTRY LongAdmittedly, I've not made a good call on the Lira so far this year. Fundamentally the Lira is way overvalued at ~5.60, it's probably overvalued even at $6 but the CBRT has found clever ways to prop up the currency through swaps (and a billion or so in borrowed Yuan).
all that said, the algo is signalling long here, so I'll be taking a smaller position to balance risk in the event Trump decides to intervene in the dollar directly since the DXY is back over 98 (again) so a Trump tweet seems likely.
Market News and Charts for August 12, 2019USD/TRY
The pair was seen trading at the tip of the “Falling Wedge” pattern and was expected to continue going down in the following days. The 2016 failed Turkish coup attempt started the end of the relationship between the United States and Turkey. The coup was led by U.S.-based preacher Fethullah Gulen within the Turkish military. Three (3) years after the failed coup, Turkey had its first delivery of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, which the U.S. allies said will compromise the defense sharing agreement of the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) Alliance. The second batch of delivery was expected to be finish this August. Aside from this, Turkey is mulling to purchase Russian SU-35 fighter jets after the U.S. expelled Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program in response to its acquisition of Russia’s S-400. However, the Turkey-U.S. relationship might enter into a new low after Turkey loaned $1 billion from China.
USDTRY I am mainly equity guy, but from time to time a do trade FX, and there I have my favourites such TRY, NZD, AUD.
Right now, my position is closed with +S/L, but I will take a closer look today to find the entrance for a new one. For me, MA200 remains strong resistance area , and this new trade will most likely have a T/P near Fibonacci 0.5 lvl . I will wait to RSI to touch his 40 lvl one more time and to price to get closer to MA200
100/16,5 = 6,06 short term target from try/usd chart trend.we use try/usd graph. do not use usd/try. Now 100/17,6. and it s gonna be 100/16,5 =6,06 of short term target from try/usd chart trend. ..QSupreme..
USDTRY | Textbook SellSuch a nice sell 4-8 hours ago. Missed it unfortunately but you can still get in, it is a bit more risky though.
You also get paid overnight swap for short positions on most brokers.
#BTCTRYSupport and resistance are identified;
The green areas are Target;
Time range specified;
The price is within the pattern;
USD/TRY: Still In Channel! But Non-LinearHello dear Turkish Lira traders, merhaba arkadaslar!
The last time we were looking at this analysis:
=> We can see that the bulls couldn't break the horizontal resistance at 5.78, so we broke the bottom at 5.67 and since then we're still in a downtrend, albeit that the market doesn't respect it much with linear trendlines.
=> Non-linear moves happen very often in charts, especiall after expontential moves: it is something that I'm personally very interested in observing.
Have a look at this example from the stock world that I just analyzed:
Conclusion: We're still trending downward, and sometime we will see a breakout coming to the upside: When this happens, we will further tighten, as you can seee best on the Weekly chart:
If you had some value from my analysis, give it a thumbs-up & comment it, because the mechanism shows my analysis to other people then. Make also sure to follow me so you get notified on my analyses! I wish you a good trading! :)
Selamlar, Deniz from Edgy
Edgy is providing online education only. We are not a financial advisor, nor do we hold any formal qualifications in this area. You're trading at your own risk. No matter what you do, please set your stop loss. Please be aware, that you can lose all your money on the online exchanges.
EURTRY | EURO/LIRA Short on CorrectionSelling Lira because the overnight funding you sometimes get is just insanity! On my broker I get 0.05% on my LEVERAGED position... PER NIGHT! That's 1% in just three weeks!
For example I sell a position for $1000 which is leveraged x100 = $100,000. I get $1000 in just three weeks which is my initial investment, this means I make 100% ROE in three weeks if market moves sideways.
The technical analysis actually says it probably goes down. Insane.
To the technical analysis: Wait for correction to next weeks central pivot point or 21/34 EMAs then SELL and HODL.
USDTRY updateThe technical rule set I've set up hasn't triggered a long call just yet but, if the USD can close above the trend line at ~5.715 it will.
With the CBRT announcing it's rate decision in two days this could be the start of a substantial move up given the heightened political tensions between Turkey and the EU over drilling in Cyprus and looming US sanctions for their S-400 purchase.
Downside risks would be a hawkish surprise from the CBRT on Thursday with a dovish surprise from the Fed following a week later.
