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USD/TRY long long longI believe the local election would help to the goverment for next few days and Mr. Albayrak has announced they will show the economic programme in April. But i think that programme will suck cause the Turkey have more serious economical and political problems like unemployment rate is most highest rate before the 2008, the inequality of the Turkish citizens are getting higher. And the biggest problem of Turkey is their growth depend their import products and it cause high number of current deficit. The low TRY would help Turkey to close that deficit. But they have to make reforms which they did in 2002,2003,2004. They should give attention and more care the relationship with USA, Russia and China. President Erdogan has blamed the Jp Morgan for last crash, it doesnt make any sense. If the goverment take reasonable and good positions i would revise my analysis but probably they not and thats my target on TL. Those are just my views not investment advisory.
Long
by alejandrofiles
USDTRY Double bottom, Part 3In my previous analysis i showed a possible flag pattern could be formed against the resistance of the double bottom neckline. So far that is exactly what happend. On the right we can see the shape of a triangle. All triangles can breakout both ways, but since this one is an ascending which is being formed against a resistance zone , it is more likely to see it break upwards. If that happens, we should see an acceleration towards 5.6/5.7, otherwise there will be a chance for a false breakout. If the triangle breaks down, we could see a test of the 5.4 or even to 5.34 if the first one breaks. So far the double bottom pattern is playing out as it should. The start was a bit slow, but we got a small acceleration the past 2 weeks. So the pattern looks legit so far. Target of the pattern is at the yellow circle. Previous analysis:
by botje11
6
TOPSY-TURVY TURKEY? $TURInteresting to note that despite the nice gains Turkish equities saw in January 2019 (+15.7%) to make up for December 2018 (-6.87%), the asset class has experienced some nasty losses in February (-3.63%) and March (-4.36% so far) - all of which are quickly eroding all YTD gains. Its the only EM market to have suffered such losses so far (rivaling that of South Africa). To add insult to injury, it appears that Turkish equities have had great difficult trying to break through its 50-Day EMA as well, indicating global equity investors are loosing faith in Turkish equities. To complicate matters even further, the Turkisk Lira (USD/TRY) has been down 3.46% against the US Dollar so far in 2019, putting further stress on the currency. In continuation from last year, it may mean that markets are trying to tell us something about the health of the Turkish economy for 2019. As global investors continue to shed Turkish assets throughout 2019, this is one space investors should be very wary of investing in over the next little while. We recommend caution against Turkish assets.
NASDAQ:TURShort
by EconomicsGlobal
TOPSY-TURVY TURKEY? $TUR $TRYUSDInteresting to note that despite the nice gains Turkish equities saw in January 2019 (+15.7%) to make up for December 2018 (-6.87%), the asset class has experienced some nasty losses in February (-3.63%) and March (-4.36% so far) - all of which are quickly eroding all YTD gains. Its the only EM market to have suffered such losses so far (rivaling that of South Africa). To add insult to injury, it appears that Turkish equities have had great difficult trying to break through its 50-Day EMA as well, indicating global equity investors are loosing faith in Turkish equities. To complicate matters even further, the Turkisk Lira (USD/TRY) has been down 3.46% against the US Dollar so far in 2019, putting further stress on the currency. In continuation from last year, it may mean that markets are trying to tell us something about the health of the Turkish economy for 2019. As global investors continue to shed Turkish assets throughout 2019, this is one space investors should be very wary of investing in over the next little while. We recommend caution against Turkish assets.
Short
by EconomicsGlobal
USDTRY Double bottom, Part 2 In my previous analysis i showed a potential double bottom on the daily chart which has been playing out so far. The ideal entry, when the triangle would break on the low side, didn't happen. It simply broke upwards and continued the rally since. However, this rally has been very slow so far. It's not always bad, but at this point it needs to accelerate a big more. Like it has been doing the past week or so. Bulls need to show they want to attack the neckline of that double bottom (red zone on the left). So ideally we see a good move up this week, into the resistance zone and make a good bull flag there for a few days. If we see that happen, it will become more likely to see a continuation up for the coming few months. Previous analysis:
by botje11
7
USD/TRY - THE TURKS BETTER READ THISToday’s analysis for the USD/TRY starts from a look at the daily chart to get an idea of what the medium-term outlook is like. From the daily chart shown below, a key price level which is now acting as a medium-term resistance is identified. This is the site at which price found support three times in December 2018 (1, 2 and 3), as well as once in January 2019 (point 4). Having been broken in late January, the key price level that ranges around 5.2645 is expected to perform a role reversal to resist attempts by price to move to the upside. The active candle for the day has opened on a bullish note and is now testing this level. So even though the short-term bias for USD/TRY is bullish, we expect this price level to be tested several times in the course of the next few business days. But what is price doing for the day within the context of the daily candle that is already trading higher than its opening price of 5.2198? The first hourly chart is compressed to show the relationship of the current price to historical price action. Current price level is shown to be at the site of previous support areas as identified in the daily chart. However, we also see that other important price levels exist. Above the current price level of 5.2539, we have 5.3211 and 5.4022 as the next available resistance levels. We also see a trendline resistance that captures the highs of January 2019 price action. This trendline is expected to intersect the 5.3211 resistance in the near future, and this area will become relevant if the current resistance area is broken. For the day, we see that price has been resisted at the R2 pivot level, and price is currently pulling back to the R1 pivot. It is possible that price may retrace fully to the R1 pivot, from where buyers may renew the push to send the price of USD/TRY further upwards. Ideally, this move should be accompanied by an increase in the volume bars to confirm the move. Further support is provided by the 9-day EMA line, which is located directly under the existing candles and looks set to provide dynamic support to the price action. Any trades made to capitalize on short-term bullishness have to allow for retracements to viable support areas. Key areas to watch are: - The R1 support pivot at 5.2263. This was broken to the upside earlier today, but price was unable to breach R2 and has since stared to retrace back to R1. Role reversal is expected at this area. - With reference to the daily chart, price will need to break above the 5.2645 price area with at least a 3% upside penetration (accompanied by an increase in buying volume), for the door to be opened for a chase of the 5.3211 resistance. - The blue trendline that captures the lows of January 2019’s price action will serve as a support zone on the daily chart, if price fails to break the current daily resistance area.
Short
by Chris_WCX
Short USDTRY on continued US govt shutdownSell USDTRY on continued US govt shutdown and poor global growth data lowering the chance of US central bank raising interest rates further. Rates markets including cash and derivatives are pricing in at most 21% chance of a rate hike from summer 2019 onwards. Why does this matter? Emerging markets fund their budgets in USD and as US rates increase EM funding costs increase putting downward pressure on the economy. As the US shut down continues the chances of a US recession increase lowering any probability of a rate rise. On technical front downside momentum has been continuing since middle of January with a series of lower highs and lower lows and we now look set to test month lows. A close on the daily below 5.279 low of January 2nd opens up downside to test 5.20 area then a move to 5.15 November lows which we are looking to hit over next month should sentiment and growth data continue on current trajectory.
Short
by forexTrdr