USD/TRY 1H Chart: Soon breakout from triangleThe US Dollar spiked significantly against the Turkish Lira late in May as a result of which it surged up to a many-year high of 4.90.
The rate has since edged lower and is now trading in a descending triangle—the upper boundary of this pattern is a downward-sloping trend-line drawn from the aforementioned spike, while support is provided by the 4.45 level. This triangle has reached its maturity; thus a breakout and a subsequent movement in this direction should soon follow.
Longer-term technical indicators are in favour of a fall within the following month, at least. During this time, the downside potential is apparent until the 100-day SMA and the monthly S1 at 4.10. In case of an upside breakout, the Greenback should target the yearly-high at 4.90.
It should be noted that the Turkish Lira is dependent heavily on fundamental aspects; thus, they should also be taken into account when designing a trading strategy.
TRY
EUR/TRY 1H Chart: Patterns point to declineThe common European currency has been strengthening against the Turkish Lira for a long period of time. This upside movement gained strength considerably early in May which resulted in a 18.40% surge during these three weeks.
After reaching the 5.73 mark earlier this week, the pair plunged 5% in one hour on May 23 and thus fell down to the upper boundary of the breached one-year channel at 5.32. The Euro has since recovered but has nevertheless failed to reach its previous many-year high of 5.73.
It is likely that bulls exhaust their strong upside momentum within the following sessions and initiate a new decline. A near-term target is the breached channel line, the 200-hour SMA and the monthly R2 at 5.35/30. Subsequently, the pair could edge even lower down to 5.20.
A great opportunity to buy in Turkish Lira. keep your eye on it.DOLLAR/LIRA
Midterm forecast:
The current trend is uptrend and the forecast is continuation of the uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI resistance #1 at 83 is not broken, the probability of price increase would be too low.
While the RSI uptrend #2 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
Price is above WEMA21, if the price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 77.
Trading suggestion:
There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested Buy Zone (4.3200 to 4.1800). if so, we would set orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (4.3200)
Ending of entry zone (4.1800)
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to "Buy zone" then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether "Bullish Engulfing" , "Hammer" or "Valley" , in other words,
NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
To learn more about "Entry signal" and the special version of our "Price Action" strategy FOLLOW our lessons:
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 4.4600
TP2= @ 4.5400
TP3= @ 4.7385
TP4= @ 4.9225
TP5= @ 5.0000
TP6= Free
A great opportunity to buy in Turkish Lira. keep your eye on it.DOLLAR/LIRA
Midterm forecast:
The current trend is uptrend and the forecast is continuation of the uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI resistance #1 at 83 is not broken, the probability of price increase would be too low.
While the RSI uptrend #2 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
Price is above WEMA21, if the price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 77.
Trading suggestion:
There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested Buy Zone (4.3200 to 4.1800). if so, we would set orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (4.3200)
Ending of entry zone (4.1800)
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to "Buy zone" then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether "Bullish Engulfing" , "Hammer" or "Valley" , in other words,
NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
To learn more about "Entry signal" and the special version of our "Price Action" strategy FOLLOW our lessons:
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 4.4600
TP2= @ 4.5400
TP3= @ 4.7385
TP4= @ 4.9225
TP5= @ 5.0000
TP6= Free
USD/TRY 4H Chart: Review after turbulenceThe USD/TRY pair has been mostly affected by the fundamentally economical, damaging reforms of the Turkish government. Moreover, recent events in the Turkish bond market have massively increased volatility.
However, rather incredibly the currency rates sudden decline began in consistency with the long term ascending channel pattern, which represents the surge of the recent months.
In accordance with the pattern, the US Dollar should decline against the Lira until it reaches the support of the channel. It could occur in any way, as the support can be touched by trading downwards, sideways or even going higher.
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Pair shows upside potentialThe movement of TRY/JPY has been bounded in an descending channel during the past three weeks. This pattern is a part of a medium-term channel which has prevailed since early 2018.
Given that the pair reversed from the medium-term channel today, traders are expected to see a test of the 25.45 area which is reinforced by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP.
In terms of downside potential, the nearest support is set by the weekly and monthly S3s circa 24.10, while no other barriers are located nearby. It is unlikely that the pair falls below this 24.00. If such situation occurs, the next target is the 23.00 mark.
Here we are approaching something here. Sleepy Central Banking..While our goverment officals sleeping and doing nothing the price action started a cup and handle rally..
Here we have something.
It is approaching to the target levels..
Can our officers do anything.. ? In past years we all decided they are happy about this thing..
This can be sideway but it didnt.. When past 4 price we got sure that this is a cup and handle rally..
Here all investors are alone in this cruel world.. Central banking sleeps.... So they got paid well..
God bless them with their paycheck.. They made Turkish Lira currency Worst Money In the World..
hallelujah.....
USD/TRY 1H Chart: Short-term appreciation expectedAfter reaching a new many-year high against the Turkish Lira three weeks ago, the US Dollar began depreciating in a short-term channel down. This pattern was breached in this session due to the bullish pressure of the most senior pattern near 4.04.
It is likely that the pair still tries to push higher in this session towards the monthly R1 or the aforementioned high at 4.14 and 4.1820, respectively. Additional bullish signals are provided by the fact that the pair surpassed the strong resistance cluster of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP today.
Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily time-frame suggest that some medium-term decline could be under way after this short-term surge.
EUR/TRY 1H Chart: Fall still expectedEUR/TRY was dominated by bearish momentum following a test of the senior channel near 5.17 on April 11. This movement was constrained in a downward-sloping channel. The pair managed to reduce the trading range within this pattern and breach the combined resistance of the 55–, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the above channel.
This session marked a strong surge for the EUR/TRY exchange rate which resulted in a test of the 5.00 mark during the day. This up-move has pushed technical indicators in or near the overbought territory. Thus, the following days might mark a bearish reversal. Even more, it is likely that the Euro tries to edge even lower and reach the senior channel located near 4.86/88 before starting a new medium-term surge.
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Lira remains near breached channelTRY/JPY has been appreciating in a two-week ascending channel which started when the rate reversed from the senior channel near 25.50.
This bullish sentiment resulted in a breakout of the medium-term channel and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement at 26.60 during the previous session. However, it is likewise apparent that this two-week strong bullish momentum has allayed considerably this week, thus flashing some bearish signals.
It is likely that the pair remains guided by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs for a brief period of time prior to breaching this support and edging lower. The nearest support is the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 26.37, while a more probable target is the weekly S1 at 25.93.
In case the aforementioned moving averages are not breached, the Lira should target the 38.20% Fibo retracement at 27.30 until early May.
EUR/TRY 1H Chart: Tended southThe common European currency has been appreciating against the Turkish Lira since early March.
During this time, the pair has moved higher in between the boundaries of a long-term channel. This appreciation allowed the pair to test this senior pattern at 5.18 on April 11. It subsequently edged lower and formed two new junior patterns.
The Euro is currently tangled around the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 5.07. Technical indicators are bullish for the following session, suggesting that the aforementioned many-year high at 5.18 could be approached once again. This level, reinforced by the weekly R1 and the monthly R2, is likely to stand firm.
In the medium term, the pair is expected to maintain its downward-sloping tendency and move towards the bottom boundary of the senior channel in the 4.85/90 territory.
USD/TRY 1H Chart: Rate edges lower from yearly highThe bullish sentiment has been guiding USD/TRY since mid-February—a move which is confined by an ascending channel. This upward momentum intensified early in April when the US Dollar reversed from the bottom boundary of this pattern.
Meanwhile, the pair reached its highest position in several years near the 4.20 mark on Wednesday. As apparent on the chart, it likewise formed a pattern similar to head-and-shoulders. By mid-today, the US Dollar had fallen back down to the weekly R1 and the 100-hour SMA circa 4.09.
It is likely that the rate declines even lower in line with the senior channel and therefore reaches its bottom line and the 200-hour SMA at 4.04 early next week. The same bearish momentum could push the pair considerably lower in the medium term away from the aforementioned yearly high.