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Lira crisis: continues tightening between 5.8 & 7 Dollars +NewsHello my dear Turkish Lira traders & everyone else who is interested in the ongoing Turkish Lira crisis. As always, we look at the fundamental news first, and second at the technical analysis. Important fundamentals: -The Turkish government has ruled that exporters might convert 80% of their foreign exchange revenue into Lira within 180 days -The central bank has already announced tightening policy coming next week, and thus, has set the bar pretty high (president Erdogan is, at least in front of the camera, against interest rate hikes) -Potential war in Idlib/Syria: The Turkish society sees Syrian refugees already as a drain on the economy, connecting it to the demise of the Lira. Obviously another attack in Syria, which leeds to another inflush of refugees, could lead to further tentions. Germany's foreign minister is visiting Turkey right now in order for potential help in the attack scenario Have fun watching! ;) If you had some value from my analysis, make sure to like & follow me so you don't miss it next time, I'm doing Daily Crypto Analyses + occiasionnally Lira analyses! I wish you a good trading! :) No matter what you do, please set your stop loss. About myself: Global citizen & early Bitcoin adopter from Germany. I invested in the 2nd rally from 50 to 1.000 Dollars in BTC.
by Edgy_
17
USD/TRY 1H Chart: Bullish momentumThe Turkish Lira has been depreciating against the US Dollar in an ascending channel since the middle of August. Currently, the rate is being supported by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs on the 1H time-frame. Given that technical indicators flash bullish signals both in the short and the long terms, it is expected that the pair could go to the upper boundary of given channel. Two important levels to look out for are the weekly R1 at 6.9350 and the Fibonacci 0.00% retracement at 7.0213. However, from a theoretical point of view, the exchange rate should aim for the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
Market recap for week of Aug 27-Monday=Markets reacted to Fed governor Jerome Powell's speech on Friday which knocked the USD lower. SPX makes a new high. While political turmoil in the Australian govt weaken the AUD but the recovered towards the end of the trading week -Emerging markets currencies were pretty weak last week with majority of them plus one percent -WSJ reports issues on China & US that 40% could be dealt with immediately but 20% are intractable & non-negotiable. uk.reuters.com www.cnbc.com -US and Mexico are closing in a trade agreement between the two countries, Trump tweets "A big Trade Agreement with Mexico could be happening soon" -Profit for China's industrial firms up 16.2% to 75B in June, missed estimates. -Australia's new Prime Minsiter Scott Morrison makes changes to his cabinet. -Germany's business climate index climbs to 103.8 improving off of July's reading www.reuters.com -Turkey's Finance Minister Berat Albayrak to meet with France's Finance Minister -Iran's economy minister was removed from his post by Iran's parliament. www.cnbc.com -Tuesday -Stocks again strengthens due to Positive sentiment on a new NAFTA deal www.businessinsider.com.au -China gains control of the Yuan's slide against the USD once they announced reintroducing the counter-cyclical factor in setting the rate each day. -French President Macron comments on Brexit deal, will not make a deal at expense of EU's integrity but respects Uks decision. -Canada's Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland to head to US for negotiations today. -Trump comments that he will rejects China's efforts to negotiate a deal. Chinese officials want to suspend talks until after elections in November. -Trump to begin his emergency agriculture plan after Labor Day. www.wsj.com -UK's Prime Minister Theresa May comments on ongoing Brexit negotiations. Mean while Trade Secretary Liam Fox is in Singapore talking about UK inclusion into TPP's Comprehensive & Progressive Agreement. They are taking credit for the trade deal. www.cnbc.com -Wednesday -US consumer confidence strong reading in August 133.4, Trumps tweets a story from CNBC -WSJ interviews Dallas Fed Pres Robert Kaplan. Expects 2 more hikes this year and another 2 next year www.wsj.com -China creates a way for its bonds to be included in global indexes. Another attempt to rid the US dollar as the global juggernaut. China Premier Li comments will tighten intellectual property rules. www.cnbc.com uk.reuters.com -Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio claims nation may break the EU's rule of breaching its 3% public deficit limit. -EU's lending sector see's improvement -US states that for a deal to be reach with Canada Friday will be the deadline. -Senate confirms Richard Clarida to become Federal Reserve vice chairman. -2nd estimate of GDP data release 4.2% increased, a 0.1 percentage point greater than the previous release of data back in July -Florida's race for governor is determined between Andrew Gillum a progressive backed by Bernie Sanders while GOP runner will be Ron DeSantis one who has defended Trump. www.wsj.com -Brexit deal as a date set for a deadline for an agreement Oct 18. Bloomberg reports they may extend it to mid Nov. www.bloomberg.com -Consultancy group wood Mackenzie forecasts India to beat out China for oil demand. www.cnbc.com -South Korea's government proposes largest budget increase in a decade. www.wsj.com -Thursday -Greater than expected draw for Crude Supplies saw Crude oil prices gain a good percentage on Wednesday -News out of Europe as EU negotiator Michel Barnier spoke some positive words for cutting a deal with the UK , the EURGBP had a high to low range of 1.51% price movement. -Now it is the Argentina's peso turn to have large down move against the USD dollar, President Macri asked the IMF to speed up its delivery of a $50B bailout. The USDARS surged over 20% on the headlines. www.reuters.com - Corporate profits jump to 16.1% in Q2 from a year earlier, largest year-over-year gain in six years. www.wsj.com -President Trump is providing some relief for countries on steel & aluminum quotas. www.reuters.com -Friday -Trump threatens more tariffs on China imports. According to Bloomberg he plans to impose another $200 billion more. A lot of other thoughts also coming from Trump linking capital gains taxes to inflation. Also to may withdraw from WTO if it doesn't shape up. twitter.com -Emerging market currencies have been the focus this week as Lira, Argentine peso and Rand all losing again this week against the USD -German Finance minister Olaf Scholz comments hard to tell if there will be a Brexit agreement. uk.reuters.com -EU economic sentiment down to 111.6 points in August from 112.1 in July. uk.reuters.com -Oil surplus looks to be lowering as traders are expecting a more losses in supply due to the Iran sanctions. Atlantic Basin crude supplies have nearly doubled in lower supply. This is oil that has not found a buyer yet. uk.reuters.com -China's manufacturing PMI up for july 51.3 vs a 51.2 from July. Exports shrinks for third strength month, while a rise in inventories of finished goods. www.cnbc.com -Brazil's economy grew with GDP reading for 2nd qtr up 0.2% from 1st qtr. Despite a trucker strike. uk.reuters.com
by schmidtke_jake
EUR/TRY 1H Chart: Upside potential apparentThe Euro has been trading in an ascending channel against the Turkish Lira since the beginning of current week. As apparent on the chart, the Euro has reached the upper boundary of this pattern. In addition, technical indicators are in favour of bullish scenario. These two factors allow to think that a breakout is due in the nearest future. Traders should look out for the 0.00% Fiboncacci retracement at the 8.103 mark. In case, this mark is not breached, it is likely that the bearish sentiment takes over the pair.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
CARRY TRADE CYCLES Carry Trade is the one of the most stylish trading system.Example on 1 years : UK interest rates = 0,74 Turkey interest rates = 23 If i lend money with GBP and if i invest in Turkey 2Y bonds my real income is : 23 - 0,74 = 22,26 (%) (yearly) Because of i invested with hot money , Turkish lira will get high and i can buy more Pounds if i want to get interest yield again. If im a good trader or a investment bank , my risk is so so low . Otherwise i can buy a lot of pounds with strong Turkish Lira and get high interest rate when i sell my Turkish lira, Turkish lira gets cheap and this time i can get a lot of Turkish lira again. This cycle is so profitable and suitable for community trading psychology. So carry traders transform market makers and every movements have affect for market making and it is more profitable and secure. But for an English invester, if Turkish economy get worse, even Turkish lira getting cheap and interests are not incresing or devaluations like Turkish lira got a few days ago or interests rates in dangerous places (%23 - %25 means %100 ROE in 4 years) everything getting more worse with double affect, fiat and interest rates opposite correlation lost and everything getting so much risky. This is an example on historical data. I choosed Pound because UK's interest rates are more lower than USA.This idea will show why last year :GBPTRY drops a lot and this year is different. Let's see Turkish Lira's different between market conditions conveinent for Carry Trading or opposite.Best regards.
Education
by Noldo
Least path of resistance and low volume! Higher prices are closeMACD crossed and very low volume phase started. No hard selling or any action that changes the price. While the weekly chart looks like a bearish flag, the daily chart is telling me something will happen soon. Watch for 20 moving average. It isn't going to be taken down easily. In the first higher high green daily candle, it is a but for surge with a stop loss below the last red candle. Try to take a position on the 20 SMA, if you intend to take a position. here is not a lot of resistance on the path of a new high around 7.6.
Long
by mkanik
Economic Warfare? Lira in 4H equilibriumHello my dear Lira traders! :) Fundamentals: The language between the US & Turkey is getting harsher. National security advisor John Bolton came out and said that Turkey is making a huge mistake by not releasing pastor Brunson. Ibrahim Kalin, spokesperson for president Erdogan, is now speaking of 'economic warfare' against a NATO ally. Technical Analysis: We're in an equilibrium between the ranges of 6 & 6.2. Should we break higher, we have 6.33 as the upper wick of the previous move to take out first. Have fun watching! ;) If you had some value from my analysis, make sure to like & follow me so you don't miss it next time, I'm doing Daily Crypto Analyses! I wish you a good trading! :) No matter what you do, please set your stop loss. About myself: Global citizen & early Bitcoin adopter from Germany. I invested in the 2nd rally from 50 to 1.000 Dollars in BTC.
by Edgy_
8
LIRA CONSOLIDATION -IMF HELP GETTING DISCUSSEDHello my dear USD/TRY traders, hope you're doing fine guys! ;) In today's video, we're gonna be looking at the fundamentals, and will analyse the pair in the end. Important was: -Trump is not backing -Also the FED is concerned about the rapid collapse of the Lira -Sigmar Gabrial (former German foreign minister) & Andrea Nahles (current chief of the German Social Democrats) are bringing economic help for Turkey to the table -Mesale Tolu, German-Turkish journalist, who was released from prison, may leave the country Have fun watching! ;) If you had some value from my analysis, make sure to like & follow me so you don't miss it next time, I'm doing Daily Crypto Analyses! I wish you a good trading! :) No matter what you do, please set your stop loss. About myself: Global citizen & early Bitcoin adopter from Germany. I invested in the 2nd rally from 50 to 1.000 Dollars in BTC.
by Edgy_
Regression analysis from break up candle.New trend formed. Recent manipulations won't change the target. 15 years of economic deficit releases the energy. Although short term actions suppressed the trend, Turkey hasn't changed it's economy policy. The results will be seen on the chart soon. The reason for plunge in TRY isn't Bruson or any other reason but the wrong economic policies. Sanctions and problems with US only changes the speed of the surge. In the intermediate run i can see clearly that the USDTRY will remain over 7.5 and maybe 10ish soon. I hope Turkey can figure out a way from the hole they dig. The most likely the solution is lowering the wages and salaries. Reducing the expenditures and stop doing constructions with a pledged profit. At this point, borrowing money and using this money for manufacturing, tourism and agriculture can be a solution. However, the political environment has worsen recently. Foreign investors escaped and not planning to return. The country listed as 150th safe place to visit in spectator index. So far, the policy that they devoted their life was played a major role for recession. Now higher interest rates won't be able to stop it. Very high inflation levels are coming. Unfortunately, tax payer citizens will suffer very badly. I almost dropped tear during the economic fall. But the economy is no joke and doesn't care about feelings. I hope to analyze the chart in the reverse fashion in the future.
Long
by mkanik
4