TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Steady climb in sightThe Turkish Lira keeps sliding lower against the Japanese Yen. The pair has lost around 11.25% since its peak at 30.30 on January 5. A dominant pattern that is guiding the pair from this time is a descending channel.
In terms of this week, the pair has been trading sideways with a slight tendency north. This movement began when the Lira reversed from the aforementioned channel near the 26.80 mark early this week.
It is expected that the Turkish currency continues to move in the current up-wave. This appreciation, however, might become more flat, especially when the rate approaches the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP circa 27.30. In addition, technical indicators signal that the bearish sentiment should allay, thus allowing the pair to reach the upper channel boundary near 27.40.
In case bears take over the market, a fall below the weekly S1 at 26.60 is unlikely.
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USD/TRY 1H Chart: Junior channel expected to hold firmUSD/TRY has been trading in channel down for the last three months. The upper boundary of this pattern was tested on January 9. The pair has since slid lower in a newly-formed junior channel.
If nothing extraordinary affects the rate, it is expected to remain within the boundaries of the junior channel until the upward-sloping trend-line located circa 3.75 is reached within the following two weeks.
In the short-term, however, the Greenback is likely to appreciate against the Lira, as suggested by oversold technical indicators. The pair could reverse from the weekly S1 at 3.7625 and move towards the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs located in the 3.7933/3.8035 area. Subsequently, a move towards the aforementioned trend-line should follow.
In case the bullish sentiment overwhelms the market, thus resulting in an upside breakout of the junior channel, gains could be capped at the 2018 high of 3.8363.
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Lira pressured by strong resistanceThe movement of TRY/JPY has been guided by several patterns the most important of which for near-term trading is the seven-week channel down. Its upper boundary was tested early in February when the pair reversed from the monthly PP at 29.33.
It is likely that the Lira continues depreciating against the Yen within the following trading sessions in line with the junior pattern (drawn with dashed lines). The pair could still push slightly higher in the short term; however, the combined resistance of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly S1 is expected to provide an unbreakable barrier somewhere in the 28.65/28.95 area. A possible downside potential in this scenario could be the bottom boundary of a one-year descending channel circa 27.70.
In case the aforementioned resistance cluster is breached, bulls should guide the Lira towards the weekly PP at 29.33.
EUR/TRY 1H Chart: Breached up-trendThe common European currency has appreciated substantially against the Turkish Lira during the previous nine months. The pair managed to reach a record high of 4.72 in late November and approached close this area once more last week. The general trend during the previous four weeks has been upwards, as shown by the dashed line.
The Euro remained sticky to this line during for several sessions prior to breaching it earlier today. This factor together with the rate’s inability to pick up speed in the aforementioned long-term channel suggests that the bullish momentum might be gradually allaying. In case the 200-hour SMA near 4.66 is breached, traders should expect a fall down to the 4.60/4.63 area within the following two weeks.
On the other hand, the failure to fulfill this scenario should guide the Euro towards 4.76.
My Next Long Term Position TRYJPY LongI am slowly building a big long position in TRY/JPY pair. Turkish Lira is quite under-valuated at these levels and despite the recent strength of Japanese Yen I think in the long run JPY will weaken across the board. This is a carry trade position which will bring lot of interest while running. At 8.5% current interest rate of Turkish Lira outperform almost all peers in the world and with inflation and demographics of Turkey slowly going down I think soon we will see a major trend reversal here with significant strengthening of the Lira by more than 10-15%.
Turkish counterattackThe cross may have touched his top and start descending
A negative pressure accross the USD help the fall.
The fall is supported by a descending dynamic trend line.
A negative long term market pressure (-6.1) confirm the downtrend
A negative short term market pressure (-6.3) confirm that the fall is in act
A really good positive swap for short positions will help the down trend
On my twitter profile twitter.com you can find everyday the market pressure value for all crosses.
Have a nice trading !
#USDTRY next target: 3.77Since mid-September 2017, USDTRY is in a new impulsive wave. The price correction in the first two weeks of October was the 1st and current downtrend, started in 21st November, is 2nd corrective waves.
I think USDTRY will continue to soften to 3.70-3.80 range. 3.70 is quite unlikely but if there will not be any extraordinary matters then a correction to fib 0.382-0.50 seems likely.
USDTRY OPPUTUNITY WITHIN RANGETrading method: RSADVANTAGE Stage 5, accurate system manually forward tested over 3 years designed to stay out of ranging markets and only target strong trends suited for swing trading. This system is made of custom adaptive volume indicators and Oscillators that properly detect trends very early and provides exit signals at dynamic S/R zones once the trend has ended. // Average yearly pips gained is 40k per pair on D1 charts alone.
USDTRY
To open long positions for usdtry , it is required:
In this situation our system indicators to confirm trade entry confirmation for movement to the upside and but if the market trend continues to range this signal will become invalid and we can see this pair fall to 3.76800. Market execution for entry, I will confirm signal once the conditions have been met.
Risk Description: Once signal is confirmed 668 pips will be up for grab with small risk SL at swing low.
Profit expectations: 1-4 day trade length expected before hitting profit target I will post exit strategy when signal receives a exit signal.
USD/TRY Dear treaders,,,
After we had nice 4h trend line we broke below that line at the price 3.92 we had test back but rejections was strong.
short trade is a long time frame i am going to hold this for few week.
SL at 3.89 is good enough as if we break that level then we will see 4$ shortley.
Good luck All ,,,
NOTE : I will update this soon.
USD/TRY 4H Chart: Short term decline in progressThe US Dollar is one of the many currencies, which are gaining strength against the Turkish Lira. Although the most patterns are similar on the pairs that involve the currency of Turkey, there are minor differences.
In regards to the USD/TRY currency exchange rate the most notable difference is the fact that the pair is a the moment trading in a junior channel down pattern. The pattern is set to guide the currency pair down to the support of the most dominant pattern near the 3.90 mark.
Afterwards a continuation of the long term surge can be expected.
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Lira moves away from historic lowThe Turkish Lira has been trading in a channel down against the Japanese Yen for the last three months.
During this time, a new descending channel was formed. After failing to edge down to the bottom boundary of the senior pattern last week, the Lira reached its ultimate low of 28.00 and reversed to the upside.
Meanwhile, the pair breaching the shorter-term pattern yesterday might point to appreciation in both short and medium term; however, the upper line of the senior channel is yet to be breached circa 28.60.
It is likely that the pair edges lower in this session and tries to make a retracement from the breached channel. However, the combined support of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs at 28.35 should limit further loses. This area is expected to mark a point of reversal from which the Lira might start its momentum north.
EUR/TRY 4H Chart: Euro at new heightsThe common European currency continues to book new high levels against the Turkish Lira. On all timeframes and scales the currency pair is surging and it has been like that for a few years.
In the short term the pair is set to continue the surge. It should occur after the currency exchange rate finds support in a combined support cluster near the 4.66 mark.
Afterwards the Euro will have the range up to the 4.7930 level free from resistance against the Turkish currency.