TRY
USD/TRY trades in overbought areaThe bearish sentiment that had dominated the market since early August was reversed last week when the US Dollar started to appreciate against the Turkish Lira. As a result, a short-term ascending wedge was formed.
Trend indicators suggest that the up-trend is still solid; however, other types of indicators favour a possible downside momentum. In case it is only a minor correction against the general trend, the fall should be limited by the 23.6% Fibo and the weekly R1 near 3.4495. On the other hand, traders should bear in mind that the breakout on September 12 might be followed by a retracement down to the upper channel boundary. This level coincides with the 200– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP.
By and large, the ascending wedge is likely to be breached in the following hours. From theoretical point of view, it should happen to the downside, thus favouring a decline down to the 3.42/43 area.
USD/TRY 1H Chart: Channel DownThe recent depreciation of the US Dollar against the Turkish Lira has confined the rate in a short-term descending channel. For most of the time, the rate remained in the upper part of the given pattern until Friday when a speech of the Fed Chair Yellen resulted in a plunge for the American currency.
The pair has since returned in the middle of the pattern and is demonstrating limited volatility. It has finally managed to pass the previously-challenging 55-hour SMA from below. Likewise, technical indicators are signaling to a soon recovery of the strongly bearish sentiment. Thus, it might be expected that the rate pushes for the upper channel boundary in the 3.46/48 territory.
Nevertheless, traders may start to shake the market either direction in anticipation of US fundamentals even before their official release.
#USDTRY D1 #BUY #LONGRisk Disclaimer: This post is not a trade signal.
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GBPTRY Long 4hGBPTRY has entered a bullish trend and MAs play a role of support structure that keeps the trend in its current direction. Considering MAs, one could also say that there has been a bullish crossing of 150 and 200 MAs. Moreover, since the green vertical line that identifies the beginning of the trend, RSI has never been below the red support line (could be seen on the graph). Additionally, from a technical point of view, the upward trend has completed its 50.00% Fib retracement.
Overall, Fib along with RSI and MAs suggest a bullish week ahead for GBPTRY. Fundamentally, there were no chaotic news coming from the UK in the past few weeks and the election uncertainty could be over in the eyes of the investors.
Good luck, traders!
USD/TRY 1H Chart: Channel DownThe Greenback has been depreciating against the Turkish Lira in a short-term channel down. The last two waves up, however, failed to form a movement upwards, resulting in a consolidation period. The rate tested the upper channel boundary mid-session and has since moved lower. However, given the direction of this wave, it may still re-test the given line in accordance with a junior descending channel. This pattern formed when the Greenback failed to overcome the monthly PP at 3.5209. Thus, the 3.5100/3.5300 area may eventually be a turning point that could guide the Greenback past the aforementioned trend-line and even higher, as bearish technical indicators are gradually decreasing in strength.
EUR / TRY - Politics to remain on the spotlightSince late January, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has produced consistent efforts to stabilize the currency. This has produced tangible results with a upward correction although persistent political tensions. Erdogan's referendum victory is likely to be the most market-friendly option. A "No" scenario may lead to early elections and a period of political uncertainty.
Back To SupportI'm back with the EURTRY to do a add-to-position. If you have followed me on the EURTRY, it's an idea to consider an increase of position. Just a moment ago, disappointing quarterly jobless average (dec) figures came out of Turkey. With the EU going somewhat stronger, I trust this one over the next week to continue upwards. Be aware that EU is in a strange place after several EU countries is banning Turkey. Also with Holland having election today, and soon France and eventually Germany. In that light, I have a fairly large SL on EURTRY. Don't necessarily do the same, unless you are comfortable with it.