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TRY

ridethepig | Turkish Lira Strategy🔸 Ceilings and profit taking I am starting to unwind partials in the USDTRY longs with all of these moves so full of energy in the current chapter it wont be long until the retailers and bloomberg crowd are on board. There is lots of thunder and lightening across the global economy, Turkey will catch more than the sniffles but it is prudent we stick to the plan - the same plan since 2018 (yes 2018). In this position, wave 5 was an obvious impulse, because after buyers held support they could then start to promote their positions and adding to winners. The 30% upside once looked miles away and is now shining us right in the face, will sellers dare to come out? Will other sharp speculators riding this for months/quarters want to also take profits? If buyers hold 7.82xx it will trigger the collapsing of local banks, so we make this play with a heavy heart. It would be interesting to investigate further whether we will get the intermediate highs in USDTRY, so lets leave some partials running incase we get capitulation...
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | Thoughts on Turkish Lira📌 The capitulation After PA in December 2018 showed us the basing formation it has been all 'one way trafffic' This may lead you to wonder why it is so important to understand the fundamentals and definition of current capital flows, because it is then possible to build one's whole swing around a macro fundamentally sound trade idea, that underpins the technical ebb and flow tactics. Of course we continued to pile on longs all the way up, our confidence in the swing was building which influenced the way we were able to construct the trade and future of the operation. Here I must highlight that the move does not last for ever; a full blown +50% move in a currency crops up occasionally, in fact even more you can see the need to capitalise on these moves. So, as we approached the start of the 'flash crash' or up in this case, the following additions were made: Then suddenly it happens, the almost powder runs dry in Turkish local banks and we get the momentum higher. It shows how hollow and uninteresting currencies can be, very straightforward when used in the safe little world of macroeconomics. A quick update on the initial leg of the Q3 flows we were tracking live: The final motive to clear was nat gas being discovered, the threat of continuing higher is very high and therefore logical to trade. Funding rates are casually moving higher but with no sense of urgency which of course is linked to the entire defence system for sellers at 7.80. Now it's important to load off of the previous resistance in the first leg of Q3 at 7.20, for a move into the final macro targets above at 7.80xx right on time for the elections. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | TRYBuyers have made the transition towards capitulation. This leaves Turkey with a huge problem, and the process of the cleanse in local banks will continue. CBRT will defend with its 'customary inventiveness' very soon as they keep a stern eye on 7.8xx. It is an unfortunate position that Turkey are in. We have exploited it for some time and as soon as the banking collapse makes it way onto Bloomberg and etc it's time to start looking at closing out. Well done all those who sent their troops to the buy side, a massive +30% swing so far and counting. After the break through 6.78 it has continued to grind its way to the wearisome target. This is the real point in the manoeuvre, which forces us to stay alert and protect profits as we approach the final targets in the unstoppable macro advance. A superb live example. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
11
Two great Buy opportunities on this chart for USDTRYMid-Term Forecast Trading suggestion: . There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (7.4086). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets. Technical analysis: . USDTRY is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected. .The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 41. Take Profits: TP1= @ 7.4086 TP2= @ 8.0000 SL= Break below S2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Short-Term Forecast Trading suggestion: . There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (7.4123). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets. Technical analysis: . USDTRY is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected. .The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 70. Take Profits: TP1= @ 7.4530 TP2= @ 7.7210 TP3= @ 8.0000 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how do you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity
21
Bearish Divergence on EUR TRYThe CBRT responded to the recent lira weakening by tightening the liquidity conditions in a significant way, although more may need to be done to stabilize the markets. The CBRT first made a press announcement stating that a) liquidity measures introduced to support growth would be phased out; and b) all available instruments would be used to reduce market volatility (suggesting rate hikes could be on the agenda). The Bank then halved the amount of cheap funding (offered at 100bp below the policy rate) to primary dealers. Finally, the Bank did not open the daily 1-week repo auction (with the 8.25% interest rate), forcing banks to borrow from the more costly ON lending facility (with interest rate 9.75%). If the remaining 1-week repos are also not rolled over, then the CBRT’s effective funding rate will increase from 7.50% to 9.75% within a week. Such measures should help to reduce the demand for FX and should slow down the loan growth, mitigating worries over price and financial stability. However, it remains to be seen if they will be enough to restore confidence and to stabilize the markets.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn3984200
ridethepig | TRY Q3 Macro Flows 📌 The buyers constitute a formidable opponent holding the breakup and putting sellers out of action. The moves are ready, to fend off another wave of risk looks impossible now and Turkey will suffer a major hammer that may be unendurable for local banks. A break above 7.20xx will unlock the widely track 7.80xx since last year. If buyers hold (and it looks a done deal now) for this monthly closing pattern it means we are ready to march forward in August and September to cripple EM FX. But if sellers hold at the end (seems very difficult with USD shortages entering back into play) then buyers are kept busy. Naturally continue to follow the macro strategy, on account of the 2020 macro flow map: Another move that would be difficult for Turkey to defend against. If you are bearish, continue sticking the knife in via buying USDTRY because it would no longer be possible to prevent the settling above 7.20xx. 📍 The other important note to make is the lack of foreign inflows... rather the opposite, heavy outflows continue with overseas participation in Turkish bonds now at record lows, as is usually the case in the end of dictatorships. There is nowhere for the CBRT to hide.. they will have to devalue the TRY to offset the loss in access to markets. Take a look over at EURTRY which is still up at ATH's ... this retrace is profit taking in the dollar train rather than Turkey stabilisation. Stay long, look for 7.80xx as the main macro target by year-end. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
EUR / TRY 7/6/2020Welcome to this analysis on Euro / Turkish Lira. EUR / TRY has been in a massive macro uptrend since 2019, It paused around the highs of the previous uptrend cycle of 2018 at 7.850. Since the 7th of May, the market has gone sideways, it had a pullback to 7.35, re accumulated there, and bounce back to the previous high. Looking at the structure, it looks like it has made a Symmetrical triangle pattern which can also be a handle of a Cup And Handle continuation patter if price closes above the previous high at 7.85. The target of the triangle is at 7.9 and the target of the Cup And Handle is around 8.25. The 2 levels of resistance above the current price are the previous high at 7.85 which used to be a daily close high of the 2018 cycle as well and above that the psychological 8 level which is also the wick highs of 2018 cycle. This trade idea has 2 rewards to risk if it hits the triangle's target and 5.5 R if it hits the target of the Cup And Handles. Good luck trading.
Long
by Trader_Shayan
2
USD/TRY 7/6/2020Welcome to this analysis on USD/TRY. USD/TRY has established an uptrend from the 2nd of June till the 17th of June, Since then it has been trading in a tight rectangle range between 6.834 and 6.858 which broke to the upside before the market close last week. Currently, it looks like it is finding support above the range which can be a sign of continuation of the previous uptrend as long as it holds the 6.850 as support. The level of resistance above the current price the gap around 6.9 and the next one above that is going to be around 6.94. This trade idea has 2 rewards to risk ratio if it hits the first target and 5.5 R if it hits the 2nd target. Good luck trading.
Long
by Trader_Shayan
#XU030 #BIST30 #VIOP - #ErayErgunBasitlik en iyi ve kararlı analiz şeklidir. Grafikte de görüldüğü gibi düzeltme beklentisindeyim. Pandemiden dolayı oluşan düşüşün yukarı yönlü düzeltmesi tamamlandı diyebiliriz, sırada bu soluksuz yukarı çıkışın hafif bir düzeltme yapması. Bunda en etkili olan şeyler sırasıyla; Kar alma, yabancı yatırımcı kaçışı, MSCI'ın üstümüzde kurmaya çalıştığı baskı, 2. Dalga Tehlikesi ki bu en önemlisi diyebilirim.
BIST:XU030
by Emp4radoTR
#USDTRY - Kısa - Orta VadeDolarTL 1 saatlik grafiğe göre konsolidasyon yapmış durumda. Günlük ve Haftalık grafiklere bakarsanız orda da sıkışmalar yaşandığını görebilirsiniz. Bu sıkışmanın yukarı yönlü kırılabileceğini rahatlıkla söyleyebilirim. Bunda etken olan olarak Türkiye piyasasından kaçan yabancı yatırımcıların yüksek etkisi var. Önümüzdeki 10 günü(25.06.2020 - 04.07.2020) dikkatle takip edilmesi ve ona göre pozisyon almamız oldukça önemli
by Emp4radoTR
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.06.15📍 The panic leg here is because we are reaching the endgame in the economic cycle. There is a risk of Turkish banks defaulting on this leg so watch-out for any exposure to specific sectors. If the operation demonstrated is a successful attack, then we have the final ✅ for those trading the macro move called last year: EM FX looks extremely vulnerable for any overshoots on the risk front, local banks have been attempting to protect the 6.80x, if we can hold for today then we will start to see momentum kicking in. Turkey looks awful on the fundamental front and political too, a complete disaster mismanagement of the crisis. The main thing is that 7.80x should be restrained via Fed => the attack on the final base can be brutal .. let's see if it plays out.
Long
by ridethepig
6