USD/TRY in a Rising wedge.Hey, I am back with another Forex idea as I said, that I will deliver a one Forex Idea every working day.
Let's get into chart.
Basically USD/TRY has printed a rising wedge which is considered as bearish pattern and is expecting the price to see a spike down.
RSI has also printed a bear flag, overall this seems like a good trade.
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TRY
Don't miss the great buy opportunity in EURTRYTrading suggestion:
. There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (7.4706). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Technical analysis:
. EURTRY is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 71.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 7.5998
TP2= @ 7.6507
TP3= @ 7.8517
SL= Break below S2
ridethepig | Thoughts and Themes in TurkeySwings and position building
We have witnessed a tremendous amount of profit taking after clearing the 7.23 targets in USDTRY and are arriving back into major support territory. The pick-up in local activity was notable as banks were forced to defend the TRY. Many clients I speak to are happy to continue buying USDTRY , the picture looks gloomy for Turkey and real money continues to sit on the bid.
On the monetary side, the CBRT cutting by 50bps was widely expected although wont make much difference at this stage. EM FX will remain under pressure if we see a broad risk-off environment this week. Keeping a close ear to the wires for any updates on swap lines, those looking for positioning in USDTRY should always think about loading in a safe place. Such a shelter will render us a superb shelter when the storm hits shore...
A massive 30% macro swing after an obvious mistake from Erdogan. Turkey will remain sluggish until they expose the issues underneath, the correct idea would be to put pressure on CBRT which is what markets are doing and show no signs of stopping in the Short-term. Here 7.80 would be the measured target in the shelter then profit taking can begin again.
As with any swing, it is important we assess the downside to see if we find something which is to our advantage. The dollar devaluation is the only technique that the Fed can construct, the only defence left in the toolkit is -ve rates and like a scout putting up his tent we must prepare. Depending on how quickly markets begin to price negative rates in USD, we may fail to complete the mission towards 7.80.
#USDTRY spotted in a Bear flag.Hey, I am back with another idea, this time looking at Forex pair of USD/TRY
USD/TRY pair has been spotted in a bear flag, which is considered as bearish formation, strong in downtrend and also as the EMA's are getting tighter, there is move likely to happen soon at this level.
I would short this pair at the resistance area.
Have a good luck with trading, don't forget to stick to your strategy.
Each new follower and like is very much appreciated! 🙌
Trias Breaks Above Resistance (Project Overview)About Trias
TRIAS aims to create a new-generation public chain that will support the execution of general-purpose native-applications on all platforms.
Source: Coinmarketcap.com
Website: www.trias.one
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Trias (TRYBTC) made a strong move yesterday growing over 180%.
Resistance was found at EMA200 and prices are starting to retrace.
We are likely to see another try at this resistance soon and even higher, on the next jump TRYBTC can hit up to EMA300 or 0.0000002927.
This is not financial advice.
You still need a plan if you decide to trade.
The charts are always changing and can change completely with just 1 candle, so it is good to be prepared.
Namaste.
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.04.29All eyes on risk markets and the recent rebound reaching its final stages of exhaustion. USDTRY not giving any gains back, continuing to attack the 7.00 important psychological resistance. Buyers calmly finishing their preparations for an appropriate welcome of the next risk headline, while local banks try everything they can to defend.
Happy to sit long USDTRY, if we do not see concrete measures around the Fed swap line then expect macro players to stick the knife into Turkey once more. There is little to see to the downside, I will actively look to add longs on any dips should we see them towards 6.90xx otherwise to the topside we have very very soft resistance at 7.00. A break above will open 7.235x and 7.80x main targets.
The move played is a demonstration of a winning macro one, the main line comes down to the pursuit of safety; capital is forced to flee a dictatorship, but the flight itself can be beset with difficulties as more and varied restrictions are conjured. Tread extremely carefully for those invested in Turkey.
Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, and etc!
Ascending scallopNote USDTRY's 92 percent negative correlation with Crude Oil on weekly. Crude oil needs to to trend up for USDTRY to fall. Long terms trends seem to be effected by Crude Oil, as is the case with Mexican Peso and Thai Bath with which heavily Lira correlates (90 and 88 percent). It also has 97 positive correlation with the Natural Gas (XNGUSD) on 4 hrs.
Price formed ascending scallop pattern (Lira trends in scallop series), classified as short term bullish continuation pattern. Ascending scallop reversals perform better than continuations. Narrow scallops take less time to reach ultimate high than short ones. Tall patterns perform better than short ones. Scallops get narrower and shorter when compared with prior scallops in series. For more, refer to Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart patterns. Chapter 41. Scallops, Ascending.
Price is moving in rising channel. Uptrend on weekly. Intermediate pullback. For trend change, channel needs to be broken to the downside.
Since price broke May roof it should eventually hit R5 (7.42) - I marked the target.
But first we should reach weekly S5, after breaking weekly support S4.
Price below May A down pivot and will make a loop swing below it.
The size of that loop might vary. The loop's bottom will be either at weekly S5 or at yearly R4.
Top correlation 4 hrs
1 USDTRY - EURTRY 99.0%
2 USDTRY - GBPTRY 97.2%
3 USDTRY - EURCZK -92.2%
4 USDTRY - USDTHB 87.5%
5 USDTRY - XNGUSD 87.2%
6 USDTRY - USDCZK -85.8%
7 USDTRY - GBPCHF 84.1%
8 USDTRY - EURGBP -84.1%
9 USDTRY - GBPCAD 82.2%
10 USDTRY - GBPNOK 81.6%
Top correlation 1 day
1 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.2%
2 USDTRY - EURJPY -91.3%
3 USDTRY - AUDNZD 88.9%
4 USDTRY - CHFJPY -88.4%
5 USDTRY - AUDCAD 87.4%
6 USDTRY - AUDCHF 86.5%
7 USDTRY - EURTRY 83.6%
8 USDTRY - AUDSGD 83.3%
9 USDTRY - AUDUSD 81.2%
10 USDTRY - EURSGD -80.3%
Top correlation 1 week
1 USDTRY - GBPMXN 95.0%
2 USDTRY - XTIUSD -92.9%
3 USDTRY - XBRUSD -92.8%
4 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.5%
5 USDTRY - EURTRY 92.5%
6 USDTRY - USDZAR 92.3%
7 USDTRY - EURZAR 91.5%
8 USDTRY - NOKSEK -91.5%
9 USDTRY - USDMXN 90.1%
10 USDTRY - CADCHF -89.7%
#EURTRY #EURO #TL #euroTLAlternative 1) If it sees around 7.10 (green area) and turns up and remains on the red line (7.90), the rise started.
Alternative 2) If it drops below 7.00, it starts to see around 6.50 (pink area) and rise. Red resistance is also important in this. Red must be crossed for real rise.
Alternative 3) It cannot fall in the 1st pink area and falls to around 5.00 (2nd pink area). After this fall, the journey of AYA begins.
Favorite way (Alternative 2)