zec longzec is often a menacing coin but it actually looks like it has relatively good upside over the next few months. buy n hold. invalidation under somewhere
Trying
glaskugel chart, exakte furure prediction was gehtyo diggah. das is wat is transpiring. es kaptischuliert quasitschki , always rememba. time is on our side.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Reverse Head and Shoulders Trying to Complete 10:00 gmt 05:00est Saturday Bitcoin Bitmex Chart Update
After holding up overnight Bitcoin began to break higher above
7450 at 06:00 am in Europe triggering the next long to the
7624-7735 range with a high so far at 7681 on Bitmex.
In doing so Bitcoin is defying the bears as it tries to complete
the RHS pattern we've been watching develop over the last
few days of trading. To do this Bitcoin has to find buyers
enough to break above the 7735 level on Bitmex and the other
feeds we cover to trigger the next long or add from here to
7948 initially and then to the minimum upside target created
by the RHS at 8157.
Returning to the downside, although this RHS pattern looks
'real' it hasn't completed yet and can't do without fresh buying
power to push it through the 7735 level.
It can stooge around for some time here making up its mind.
Despite renewed optimism for the weekend ahead it can still
fail and end in disappointment if we don't see that break
above 7735 materialise later today. It's Ok for price to come
back to the 7641 and then retest the 7600 main neck-line
again but it should hold up from here if it's to stay positive
from here.
Any subsequent failure to hold 7600 during the course of
today would be the first clue that the RHS is failing due to
lack of interest - it should then start to fall away further to
7500-7448 range again at first and attempt to rally again from
there.
More as the day develops...
EURUSD Trying For Break-Out Counter-Rally HereEURUSD Trying For Break-Out Counter-Rally now
Using DXY as the confirming signal (please see DXY updates)
we've been short EURUSD for some time now, looking for a
test of 94.20 on DXY as the likely medium term top for Dollar
strength across the pairs. That came yesterday (too busy
shorting Bitcoin to notice, sorry for that).
But EUR didn't quite make it to the next downside target at
1.1665 here, bouncing away 11 pips higher than really
expected, though it did bounce precisely off the lower
parallel of the little pattern EUR is now trapped within.
Yesterday was mostly bear closing by look of the chart. Today
it's more bull buying with a small impulse candle arriving as
London opened after an aimless overnight session in far East.
It can rally to 1.1756 and then will probably need impetus and
follow through from New York to push any higher still.
Only once it can get above here should it push back up to the
1.1823 level, presnting a potential long opportunity if we see
it develop later. But until we see that evidence present itself
EUR is becoming vulnerable to another sell off, though this
time it should only come back to the 1.1721 line to begin with
and will need US selling to drive it lower still towards the
1.1679-1.1665 range.
With the Dollar expected to enter an extended period of
consolidation under 94.2 on DXY it's no longer appropriate to
be looking for big EUR weakness in the nearterm.
However, looking a little further out in time, DXY is expected
to rally a further 1% or so from 94.2 to 95.15 and EUR to fall
back to 1.1558 eventually before any real change in overall
trend is likely on this pair.
This update was posted shortly after the DXY companion forecast this morning. It never loaded correctly. Very annoying. Anyway, what was expected above is happening pretty much as it should so far - EUR is about to break higher as DXY unravels under the dynamic from the highs a while longer.
EURUSD: Lower Stop On Any Shorts/Use DXY as Signal ConfirmationEURUSD Update
After rallying from the downside target off the 1.1721 line
EUR has made it to the near term upside target centred
around the 1.1821 line and been met with a barrage of
persistant selling from there over the last 6 hours creating a
series of rejection spikes above the line.
If you shorted from here again lower the stop to 1.1787.
It's been sold off in Europe all day - we need to see US follow
through to know that downside pressure is still strong from
here.
Without it there's an increasing chance that it will push higher
again from here before coming off again later - the next key
area on the upside lies at 1.1831-1.1838 - a break above here
needed to signal any further near term strength to 1.1915.
The overall picture is still bearish for EUR but with DXY
consolidating off 94 and with a little more unwinding there
still likely it means that this this whipsaw back higher for a
while yet before the downtrend resumes again
Bitcoin BTCUSD Trying Hard to Change Trends Today Bitcoin BTCUSD Trying Hard to Change Trend
Bitcoin broke above the 9537 line here and then moved up to
testthe upper parallel, making an 02:15gmt/21:15est high
within the first hour of far East opening before falling away
\again to an 08:15gmt/03:15est low right on the blue support
line at 9373 before bouncing again on European interest at the
lower levels. Now it's bounced to touch the first line of
resistance at 9537 once more and day traders are taking a fast
200 point win and cashing back out again many of whom have
shorted at the usual 06:00gmt traditional short time and made
200 down and now 200 up again. At the moment Bitcoin is still
in day-traders' and scalpers' territory with no killer swings to
trade as yet. It's still trapped in a downtrend but is at least
trying to form a higher low so far today and therefore showing
first signs that this downwave is running out of downside
momentum. In very near term it's gone into a small
continuation pattern and is trying to break above the 9537
line where fixed and dynamics converge - tiny pins below and
above price forming on 15 minute chart meaninga big battle is
raging below the surface here.
Things only begin to turn positive again now when the 9537
line is retaken and held by the bulls - that will likely lead to a
test of the upper parallel again at 9682-9715 - and then the
big test...Bitcoin has to break and hold above the 9715 level
before the last bear will back off. It would be yet another
brilliant escape act by Bitcoin if it can manage this at any
point today, attracting every bull still left in town back to the
game and should be followed higher if we see this price action
develop.
But until then Bitcoin is effectively trapped at these lower
levels and the downtrend remains in force - but it's not super-
bearish here, just mildly so - and so we need to watch it here
to see if it tries to break above the smallest parallel of the
continuation pattern - if so can follow with stops below 9480.
Otherwise we wait for lower values still.
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Trying to build base: Next buy and sell pointsBitcoin BTCUSD Next Buy and Sell Points
The weekend rally ran out of impetus by Sunday night with no impetus still from far East. Since then Bitcoin has zig-zagged
back down in a continuation pattern, finding support from just above fixed and dynamic support junction at 10772 on
Bitstamp chart and bouncing back up to test the parallel above it before recoiling once more. Whilst this price action is
therefore still providing a great space for day traders to trade within the parallels, it's not much help to swing traders as yet.
But the near term double bottom and the dynamic support below price at 10772 has turned Bitcoin neutral in the very
near term and given succour to the bulls for now, creating the little rally we've just seen. The bears are fighting back from
10987-11000 range and whilst they can hold price under here they remain in control still. Aggressive bears continue to sell
from tests of the upper parallel and aggressive bulls buy from tests of support just above 10772, creating this stale-mate
within this range for all but day traders right now.
Next Buy and Sell set-ups for Swing/larger Trades:
Bull case: Bitcoin is trying to base out here and 10772 is best place to do it from. If so it will bounce from 10875 first
support and from 10772 at lowest now and then break above
10987-11000 and hold on any retest once broken above...that price action will flip Bitcoin back to positive and we can look
to buy with stops below 10950/the parallel once broken.
Bear Case: (beginning to lose it, especially if 10875 holds now)
Bitcoin has to break below 10772 by 20 points or more to trigger a short back to 10547 initially, then to 10262 and then
to 9912 in all likelhood.
DXY Dollar Index Trying to put up a stand at 91.76 supportDXY Dollar Index
The Dollar Index has fallen to the next blue line of support
91.76 after an intra-day low at 91.75. It's trying to hold here.
It's still trapped in a near term downwave and struggling to
escape. It's already made one attempt to escape the down-trend
and is trying again now. There are pins forming below the low
and above it too on the 2 hour chart, denoting conflict/confusion
here. For the bulls to win some respite they need to force
DXY above 91.95 and hold it there (and no lower than 91.92
on a retest once 91.95 is taken) to attract more buyers up to
92.05-92.12 range where DXY will likely turn back down again.
For DXY to show it's turning back up from that point it will have to
take back 92.12 and then turn 92.04 into support when tested
from above. Will need to see something like this kind of price
action to convince that DXY has more upside to 92.49-92.55
On the downside the next support below 91.76 lies at 91.52 with major support/maximum likely downside target at 91.02. A move below any blue line by more than a couple of pips is likely to trigger further weakness back to the next one.
IOTA: IOTUSD Downtrend BrokenIOTA IOTUSD
The rally yesterday fizzled out from the upper parallel of a newly forming continuation pattern. Using a trailing stop under the
day's little dynamic that had underpinned the rally from inception at least meant escaping the worst of the ensuing
decline by triggering an exit at around 4500 but it was a poor call nonetheless. If you reversed short on the break below
4361 there is at least a 180 or so point profit still to be had, but so far it has not reached the expected downside
target. It's trying to flip back up here but is still being held back by the upper parallel that controls the wave. Still
vulnerable whilst unable to break and hold above this parallel. Suggest using a sliding stop above this parallel for
shorts. If broken to upside look to close down and reverse for small 100 or so profit -
IOTA: IOTUSD Trying to base here - buy points todayIOTA IOTUSD Update Trying to base here - Buy points
Within minutes of publication the little dynamic support line that had held upyesterday's rally was broken, flipping IOTA
from positive back to negative on a dime. Stops for longs were running up under the parallel as price moved north. Well it
was good whilst it lasted but once that little dynamic was lost we can see the damage done. That stop was at around 4598
when the parallel was finally lost, so by using this method of exit on longs the vast majority of the rally was locked in and
no real damage has been done. We live to fight again from lower levels now...
Iota is now trying to base out at 3037 by look of chart but is likely to have a problem at the tangled mass of resistance just
above here, where fixed and dynamics meet...no way do we get long again here until that has been beaten through...it
has to get back above the upper parallel, now around 3400 and survive any retst of that parallel from above once broken
to trigger next long from here. Maybe we will get a better entry long from lower down still...need to watch this and look
for potential double bottom/loss of downside momentum at 3037 for fist clue we have a low forming now...if it fails here
we stand back looking to see if 2.865 offers support - if not it means 2.172 is the next level to look for a buying opprtunity.
So we are left with 4 potential entry points here: at 3400 ish on a break of the upper parallel with stops kept under the
parallel by 50 points or more. Or at a potential yet-to-be-decided double bottom at 3037
And should this fail to hold from 2.865 or at lowest from 2.172 if we see it.
That's a little complicated but covers the levels. The easiest will be the break above the upper parallel. It should attract
quite a lot of buyers as well as shorts closing down/buying back too. watch it and follow when the signal is given on the
chart. Use stops though. Yesterday should have taught you that by now. Lesson learned.
DXY Dollar Index Trying to Base hereDXY Dollar Index Update Near Term Neutral but Dollar Trying to Base
DXY did come off from where it was meant to last week but
has put up more than just a fight so far in the 92.74-92.50
range. The fight back was to be expected, but it's doing
better than envisaged so far here - and these conclicting
signals urge caution now ...no interest in getting involved in a
battle of whipsaw here but will look to back the winner again
here when one emerges...DXY has gapped up today, double
bottomed and left a pin bar lying around in the space
between the two blue lines of fixed support shown on
chart...bullish signals. But it's still trapped within the
parallels which are trying to force price lower. Something has
to give here soon. ...A break above the upper parallel would
be the next bullish signal from DXY - look to get long DXY on the
next retest of the parallel from above, once broken to upside,
and get long USDEUR and short Gold on this development too.
On downside DXY has to stay under the upper parallel for the
bears to keep control from here - then they have to force DXY
down to fill the gap today at 92.89 and then push it below
92.55 again for DXY to turn negative again from here. As it
stands the bears are beginning to lose this battle, not enough
fire-power to force DXY lower from here by the look of the chart.
Early hours of this battle, still, but increasingly the bulls are
beginning to wrest back control here. Confimation will come
when the upper parallel is broken and survives the next retest.
At that point we look to short gold (if signals there are not
already given) and get long USDEUR.
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Trying to double bottom here at 7077Bitcoin: BTCUSD Update
Over the last 12 hours or so Bitcoin has formed a continuation
channel , dropping out of the lower parallel as London opened
and falling away, making a bounce from support line centred
around 7150 and then rallying up to the next listed old
support/new resistance line at 7250-7274 where it fell away
again under the heavy weight of all that structure recently
built directly above it. This is perfect price action for
plugged-in day-traders working with the smallest spreads -
which brings us back to Goldmans and Co. It would be so
educational to watch their Bitcoin desk for a day. It should be
a prize in a trading competition.
Right now, Bitcoin is retesting the lows at 7077 again, and
flipping between here and the next old support/new
resistance line on chart at 7150. we know that 7077 was the
original start point of yesterday's big rally - so Goldmans etc
will try to push it down below here to take out stops
underneath and then if it doesn't start to rally from 7077,
where they want it to, as per shape of this decline so far, and
price gets stuck under 7077, they'll start to unload again and
look to pick it up again at 6960-6930 key support.
So it's a speccy buy at 7077 but with a tight stop at 7050
because if it breaks here it will come back to major support
at 6960-6930 where it's another buy with stops under 6900.
So there are two points of interest for buyers today: 7077
with stop under 7050 or 6960-60930 with stop under 6900 if
the first shot fails. We were looking for a potential double
bottom to form...it should do it here or from the next line of
support at 6940 if it's going to do it at all.
At all costs, 6900 must hold up to all bear raids today - any
failure to do so would tip Bitcoin into serious bear territory,
signalling further intense selling pressure back to 6312 at
least, and potentially to 6165. A good short if we see it at any
point with stops above 6960.
Be Lucky
