Tesla Motors (TSLA)
$TSLA Tesla Trendline test coming upThe medium term downtrend was broken and we are headed back to test that breakout at $228.
With the volatility in this share it wouldn't surprise me if we close the gap at $213 as part of the trendline test.
If the trendline holds it could offer another buying opportunity.
Earnings expected on 23 July and this remains a speculative buy.
FORD - ICE predominates EV falters LONGFord has scaled back its EV ambitions in consideration of the marketplace while TSLA drops
its price in the Eurozone and falls into less than first place in the China EV market. Ford's
F-150 truck continues to dominate GM and the others in North America.
On the 4H chart, first a price uptrend and then retrace to the 0.5 Fib level and a reverse into
a new trend up. A pair of EMAs shows an impending golden cross also suggested by
the zero lag MACD. The two RSI lines ( 60 minutes and 480 minutes fast and slow) are
rising and about to cross the 50 level.
I see this as a long entry for Ford. Targets based on major pivots in 2023 are 13 and 14.25
TSLA does the upcoming RoboTaxi announce change things LONGTSLA has the accouncement upcoming. Price will pump for sure. Will it then dump or
change the trend altogether? The forecasts are there. The tea leaves and crystal balls
will tell the rest of the story. In the meanwhile, I will take long trades to play this in
the immediate term. One million taxis making $250 / per day every day per each is
serious potential future growth perhaps at the expense of UBER and LYFT which may get
a bearish bias in the short term on this upcoming announcement. Playing the news
sometimes works.
TSLA basing on its volume profile for a trade LONGTSLA on the highly reliable weekly chart is at the bottom of its volume profile in the lower
part of the high volume area. The TTM Squeeze Indicator ( TTM = Trade the Market John Carter)
has printed a signal for four weeks. The RSI faster and slower lines are near to the 50 level.
The mean relative volatility has steadily decreased and this is in an increasing squeeze state.
This is a setup for a patient trader to take a position in a swing trade. I am looking for a trade
into the upper part of the high volume area and so to the 240-280 range. I will get some shares
as well as a few call options for November (ITM). TSLA will be subjected to a number of
variables making the trade a bit risky including the Musk compensation battle, the China
economy, competition with Chinese EVs in Europe, federal rate actions and the presidential
elections as well as the evolution of self-driving. It is TSLA's volatility that makes it a great
trade. My entry signal here is a TTM indicator going black to white.
Musk's Warning to Gates Backfires: Tesla's Mixed Q2 ResultsApproximately a week ago, Elon Musk cautioned Bill Gates against shorting Tesla stock, suggesting potential negative consequences. However, the situation has shifted, with Tesla's stock price experiencing a significant $20 drop following the release of its earnings report in the aftermarket.
Tesla's Q2 2024 results were a mixed bag, leaving many questions unanswered. While sales increased by 7% compared to the previous year, overall revenue from car sales declined. This news is concerning for investors who primarily view Tesla as a car manufacturer.
Additional points of interest for investors include the timeline for the release of Tesla's new range of affordable vehicles designed to compete with aggressive Chinese manufacturers, which is expected in the first half of 2025. Moreover, the company has postponed plans for increased factory productivity and the unveiling of self-driving vehicles until 2025 and October 2024, respectively.
The lack of clear communication from Elon Musk and his team regarding these developments has contributed to investor uncertainty and subsequently impacted the share price.
Key takeaways from Tesla's Q2 2024 results
Earnings per share (EPS) : $0.61, down from $0.91 in Q2 2023 but up from $0.45 in Q1 2024.
Revenue : $20.16 billion, a 5% decrease compared to the same period last year, but a 16% increase from Q1 2024's $17.38 billion.
Deliveries : 444,000 vehicles, exceeding expectations but still 5% lower than the same period last year.
Several factors have contributed to a decrease in demand for Tesla vehicles, including high-interest rates, which make financing vehicle purchases more expensive for consumers. Additionally, the impact of Tesla's aggressive price cuts from the previous year is diminishing, and competition is intensifying, particularly in the Chinese market. In the domestic market, Tesla is losing ground to competitors like General Motors and Ford.
Despite these challenges, Tesla's share price had experienced a 33% increase in the first eight days of the month, adding $209 billion to the company's valuation.
Looking ahead
The weekly chart indicates that Tesla's share price has rebounded from its April 2024 low of $140, surpassing the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the falling trendline from November 2021. Buyers will aim to reclaim the September 2023 high of $278 before targeting the 2023 high of $300. Immediate support levels are at $230 (200 SMA) and $223 (falling trendline). A drop below these levels could lead to the 100 SMA at $210 becoming a potential downside target.
TESLA Huge gap down after Earnings! Buy opportunity in disguise?Tesla (TSLA) was down more than -8.00% in pre-market trading after reporting its lowest profit margin in over five years and missing second-quarter earnings expectations. This was largely due to cut prices to revive demand and increased spending on AI projects.
This however can technically be a buy opportunity in disguise as following the ATH Lower Highs trend-line of November 2021 break-out, a new bullish potential emerged and the pattern may very well be a Channel Up as so far the rally since the April 22 Low resembles the 7-month Bullish Leg following the January 06 2023 bottom.
The Target can be within the Resistance 2 level and a potential +194.87% rise (previous Bullish Leg) range. We update our long-term Target to $380.00, slightly below Resistance 2.
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Tesla Report May Strengthen Bullish SentimentTesla Report May Strengthen Bullish Sentiment
President Joe Biden withdrew his bid for a second term in the White House on Sunday. It's reasonable to assume that the stock market responded optimistically to this news, as US stocks closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) rising by 1.08% to 5,564.41 – its best day since 5th June. CNN Money's Fear and Greed Index showed an improvement in overall market sentiment, moving into the "Greed" zone.
TSLA stocks showed even more positive momentum, gaining 5.15% yesterday.
Recall that on 2nd July we noted that the TSLA price:
→ Was still within a descending channel (shown in red);
→ But was showing strong momentum, having crossed the median of the red channel and forming an ascending channel (shown in blue).
Since then, the TSLA price has:
→ Surpassed the upper boundary of the descending channel, breaking out of the downward trend it had been in since late 2021;
→ Continued to form a bullish channel, reaching its upper boundary last week.
Can TSLA Maintain Its Recent Highs?
Bearish arguments:
→ The upper boundary of the blue channel acts as resistance;
→ The December 2023 peak around $265 could serve as resistance;
→ Long upper shadows (indicated by arrows) suggest bearish activity around this level.
Bullish argument:
→ The strong rise when breaking through the red channel. On 2-3 July, the price formed two bullish gaps, creating a wide range of $213-233. This range could serve as significant support in the future.
However, the decisive factor could be Tesla's Q2 corporate report (expected to be published today after the close of the main session).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
TESLA: Growth & Bullish Forecast
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the TESLA pair which is likely to be pushed up by the bulls so we will buy!
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
TSLA: Triangle or flat?A temporary top is most likely in for TSLA. However, it is not going to be a 90% crash in my opinion. Love or hate Elon Musk, his antiques often hurt the share price and this time is no different. So far, the price action has been beautifully filling out a triangle pattern. And if the last leg of the correction is due, then price should not break below the $146 low. Ideally, price should find support on the upward trend line somewhere around $160 in the next 4-5 months to complete the triangle pattern and give us the wave five toward 1.618 fib level of the cycle degree wave 1 to complete cycle degree wave 3. The target could be whatever Cathey or other bulls have been telling us for years. For now, we need to watch the support levels. Below $160 we need to watch $146. If that breaks, then $100 comes in the picture. If that breaks, then $64 will be the last stand. If that breaks, then $26. But, right now, let's see how the correction plays out. If it a triangle, the E leg should be shortest in length and time. If it a flat, then C wave should be strongest and sharpest and might give the impression that the levels I mentioned above might come in play but won't happen.
LCID CHART INTO EARNINGS TRENDS AND TARGETSIF it's bullish, here are your upper price targets.
Sharp trends leading down into a STRONG area of support.
All of which is timing out into earnings.
I would say, if the stock is in the buy zone pre earnings, it's probably a pretty solid buy where a chance of a successful trade suddenly shifts heavily in your favor.
I tried to label everything best I could on the chart.
Be careful, as I think whatever bullish move is coming, will retrace.
Sell trend is likely your exit.
Risk increases as price targets increase.
Good luck!!
LCID Anchored VWAP based swing trade LONGLCID on the 15 minute chart is shown with two sets of anchored VWAP lines overlaid being set
at the pivot low of April 22 and the pivot high of May 6th. LCID completed a trend down today
which began on May 6th. Price has reversed and is breaking up through VWAP band lines on the
chart. The faster green RSI line has crossed over the 50 level in the past trading session. Price
is now about to cross over the longer mean black VWAP line. I am taking a long trade here
targeting 2.88 for 25% of the position, 3.10 for 50% of the position and the reminder for a
runner position to extend for the uppermost band lines. The first two targets are based on the
intermediate VWAP lines as well as the upper and lower boundaries of a standard Fibonacci
retracement. The stop loss will be raised incrementally from its initial setting of
2.74 at the top on the EMA cloud. As the trend down took a few weeks. I am expecting a 2-3
week long trade following a projected trend up.
TESLA PULLBACK Then Moon Mission!After a rejection from the weekly and daily levels, a pull back to $235 (Daily Level) or $202 (Demand Zone) is likely before higher prices.
Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade.
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
TSLA Ready to Rise
Tesla broke the 2 year downtrend and got support on this trend. It has a chance to double its price in 2-3 years. 240-260 is a very ideal range to enter.
Tesla's recent safety reports and the potential for a possible government deal after the elections (especially after recent events) paint a bright picture, at least in the medium term.
$TSLA not done going higher. $320-$330 by July 24. GET LONGSo we already know that Tesla deliveries came in 9000 more than what was expected, 438,000 expected verse 447,000 that Elon Musk posted on Twitter a couple weeks ago. Last quarter earnings per share of $.47 was slightly missed, and on July 23 they’re expected $.60 per share earnings. So IMO, That could indicate that even a slight earnings beat on revenue and earnings, would propel the stock to complete wave three at 2.618 Fibonacci level.
never mind, the whole Robo-taxi delay, which caused an 8% decline on Thursday along with the rest of the Big tech Nasdaq. I don’t think robotaxi is realistically a factor in their valuation just yet.
TESLA Massive pump to $360 coming based on historical behaviour.Tesla (TSLA) is recovering today after a sharp pull-back yesterday of around -14%. This marks the stock's first serious correction since the rally started in late June. Ahead of an emerging Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame, we looked at Tesla's similar historical patterns since the IPO that offer remarkable insight.
First and foremost, Tesla's recent pattern has been an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), which as we've noted on a previous analysis, was its bottom reversal formation that made the price break above the 3-year Lower Highs Resistance trend-line.
Similar IH&S patterns were formed in 2019/20, 2016/17 and 2012/13. So we can claim that there might be a roughly 4-year Cyclical Behavioural Pattern behind Tesla's growth. The word 'growth' is key here as after every such pattern and more importantly a correction of around -15% after breaking above the IH&S, the stock price rallied parabolically into new expansion levels.
As you can see on the 2019/20 pattern the correction was around -10%, on the 2016/17 around -15% and on the 2012/13 around -15% as well. Yesterday's -14% correction along with today's sharp recovery to the 0.5 Fib (losses cut by 50%), seems to fulfil this growth pattern.
As far as a Target is concerned, on all previous cases, the price reached (and even surpasses significantly) at least the 1.5 Fibonacci extension measuring from the pattern's bottom (Head of the IH&S). In 2019/20 it took the price around 1.5 month to approach the 1.5 Fib while in 2012/13 it took roughly 2 months.
As a result, our new medium-term Target on Tesla is $360.00 (marginally below the 1.5 Fib).
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Tesla about to capsize (40x option play inside!)It's going down. As a respected chartist said, :"Anytime NASDAQ:TSLA became this overbought (RSI), stocks imploded."
I think if you bought the $150 August puts for $50, you could get 40x return on your money, I see stocks flash-crashing this month into next.
TESLA Buy the dip, correction nearly over. $285 next short-term.Tesla (TSLA) is bleeding hard today but that shouldn't if you got on that rally early like our June 13 (see chart below) buy signal suggested while the price was still trading in the low 180s:
Our long-term Target remains $400.00 and today's sharp correction is nothing but a strong technical buy opportunity. In fact, this pull-back is not stranger to Tesla. The stock has seen a similar rejection near the 2.0 Fibonacci extension during its May - July 2023 rally on the June 21 2023 High.
As you can see, the price declined by -13.00% back to the 1.382 Fibonacci level. At the time of the (temporary High), the 1D RSI was at 89.00, roughly where it got rejected today. The price recovered when the RSI was at 57.00.
As a result, from a R/R perspective, it is worth taking another buy on the current market price and target the 2.236 Fib extension (similar to the JUly 19 2023 High) at $285.00.
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Tesla : Approaching Key Resistance Level After Strong RallyBy analyzing #Tesla 's stock chart, we observe that after hitting the first bearish target last time, the price rose again. However, this time, the price did not drop from that level as we expected. Instead, it managed to rise powerfully to $260! Currently, Tesla is near a significant resistance level, and we need to wait for the initial reaction to this level. This analysis will be updated!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
TSLA | TESLA is OvervaluedTesla, Inc.'s second quarter earnings confirm our view that the stock is one of the most overvalued stocks in the market.
Tesla's stock has been rising this year amid a sudden shift in overall market sentiment, with many investors now pricing in a soft-landing scenario after a brutal past year of Federal Reserve rate hikes. But the shift in market sentiment doesn't change the fact that Tesla's stock fundamentals are completely disconnected from reality. Tesla is a terribly overvalued stock that we think is worth closer to $26 per share instead of its current price of about $290 per share.
While Tesla is profitable, its profits are nowhere near the levels needed to justify its current valuation. We recognize that Tesla's business generates an impressive return on invested capital (ROIC), which is a key measure of profitability, especially for an automaker. However, that ROIC is already declining in the trailing-twelve-month (TTM) period.
Using our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model, we find that for the stock to have any upside at current levels, Tesla must improve its ROIC to levels not achieved by even the most profitable businesses in the world . Figure 1 shows Tesla's historical ROIC along with the future ROIC implied by its current stock price. We provide the assumptions behind this DCF scenario later in this report.
Tesla's latest earnings continue to show that it is not immune to competitive challenges and will likely see lower profitability in the future. But, its valuation implies the opposite. Any investor with fiduciary duties should be aware of the growing disconnect between Tesla's current fundamentals and the future fundamentals implied by its stock price. Even in an optimistic future cash flow scenario, shares could trade as low as $26/share. All the details are below.
Supply Constrained Argument Is Gone: Bulls have long argued that demand for Tesla vehicles has always exceeded the supply of vehicles. However, Tesla's multiple price cuts in 2023, along with its lackluster production levels through the first half of 2023, raise questions about just how much demand there is for Tesla vehicles, especially amid competition from rivals Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and virtually every other automaker. Q2 2023 marks Tesla's fifth consecutive quarter in which vehicles produced were greater than vehicles delivered. Tesla is no longer selling every vehicle it can make. Should demand for EVs slow, Tesla could find itself with higher than wanted inventory levels, which could lead to further price cuts and additional pressure on already falling margins.
Continued Cash Burn: Despite Tesla's top line growth, it continues to burn massive amounts of cash. Over the past five years, Tesla has burned a cumulative $4.2 billion in free cash flow (FCF), including $3.6 billion over the trailing-twelve months (TTM) alone. Tesla has generated negative FCF in all but one year (2019) of its existence as a public company.
Margin Decline: Tesla's "GAAP gross margin" was 18.2% in 2Q23, down from 19.3% in 1Q23 and 25.0% in 2Q22. 2Q23's GAAP gross margin was below expectations of 18.7% and remains at its lowest level since 4Q20.
Tesla's operating margin is also moving the wrong direction as it scales up. After selling 211 thousand more vehicles in 2Q23 compared to 2Q22, Tesla's reported operating margin fell 493 basis points YoY in 2Q23. Tesla noted in its press release that reduced average selling prices were one of the items that impacted margins in the quarter. We would expect Tesla's margins to fall further as competition limits pricing power across the industry.
While Tesla has rapidly ramped up vehicle production and deliveries, its market share must increase almost exponentially to justify the expectations baked into its stock price. However, as it stands, Tesla holds a meager share of the global auto industry, and its share of the EV market ranks behind incumbents across Europe and China.
In Europe, based on sales from May 2023, Tesla holds a 12% share of the EV market, much lower than VW Group (20%) and Stellantis (STLA) at (14%).In China, also based on sales from May 2023, Tesla holds 9% of the EV market compared to a staggering 38% share for top competitor BYD.
Bulls have long argued that Tesla isn't just an automaker, but rather a technology company with multiple verticals such as insurance, solar power, housing, and, yes, robots. We've long refuted these bull dreams. Regardless of the promises of developing multiple business lines, Tesla's business remains concentrated in its auto segment. Auto revenue accounted for 86% of Tesla's TTM revenue as of 2Q23.Tesla can no longer enjoy its first mover advantage as many other major automakers are producing electric vehicles. These competitors have more experience in auto production and more resources and cash flow than Tesla to invest in the electric vehicle market.
Tesla is at risk of losing market share to its competitors in the electric vehicle space and its stock price is currently not reflecting that, which is a major risk for investors.
Since bottoming out at the beginning of the year, the stock has come up almost 200%, stopping just shy of $300.
One could say the recent selloff is due to the earnings, but technical analysis would have suggested that a selloff was due even before the earnings.
Firstly, we can see that a significant bearish divergence has been building in the RSI since June. Furthermore, we have been nearing an important area of trade as highlighted by the red rectangle. The $300 level has been a key area of trade, and you’d expect to see some resistance.
So if a pullback has begun where can we expect it to end?
As I see it, we have formed an initial ABC structure from the lows in wave 1 of a five-wave impulse. This means that wave ii could now take us down to the 61.8% retracement of this rally, which lands us at $198.
We can see that this is also a very important area of support, as shown by the Visible Range Volume Profile. And, of course, we have the 200 day Moving Average offering support around this level, too.