Tesla TSLA DailyTSLA seems to be bottoming out on the momentum indicators, this looks like it will delay the 100 level test in which supposidly Elon will get margin called at if it were to break. I can see this getting delayed for another week, or perhaps it will bottom here then and form a lower high and restest 100 closer to june/july.
Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Tesla's Production Numbers in Last QuarterI wanted to bring to your attention the recent news regarding Tesla's Q1 2024 deliveries. There are reports that deliveries fell short of expectations compared to the previous quarter. This development, along with concerns about the economy and evolving consumer preferences in the electric vehicle market, could have an impact on Tesla's stock price.
It's important to consider this news along with other factors, such as Tesla's long-term position in the EV space and overall market conditions when making investment decisions.
As always, it is important to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Please feel free to reach out in the comments if you have any questions or would like to discuss this further.
Tesla Faces Headwinds as Q1 Deliveries Fall: What Lies Ahead?Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ), the electric vehicle (EV) pioneer, finds itself navigating choppy waters as it reports a decline in first-quarter deliveries, sending its stock tumbling in early trading. With 386,810 deliveries, an 8.5% decrease from the same period last year, Tesla's performance has raised concerns among investors and analysts alike.
The company attributes the decline in volumes to several factors, including the early phase of production ramp-up for the updated Model 3 at its Fremont factory and disruptions caused by external events such as the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin. These challenges highlight the vulnerability of Tesla's global supply chain to geopolitical tensions and unforeseen incidents, underscoring the need for resilience in an increasingly complex operating environment.
Moreover, reports of decreased production at Tesla's Shanghai factory raise additional questions about the company's growth trajectory. While Tesla's China-made vehicle sales remained flat year-over-year, despite a 33% increase in overall industry sales in China, the EV maker faces stiff competition from local rivals and mounting pressure to maintain its market share in the world's largest automotive market.
Chinese EV brands like BYD and Nio are aggressively expanding into new markets, posing a formidable challenge to Tesla's dominance. As these competitors gain traction both at home and abroad, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) must reassess its strategy to retain its competitive edge and sustain growth in the face of intensifying competition.
The upcoming quarterly earnings report scheduled for April 23 presents a critical opportunity for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) to reassure investors and reverse the downward trend in its stock price. Analyst opinions on Tesla's prospects remain divided, with some questioning the company's growth prospects amid mounting challenges, while others view the recent selloff as an overreaction, presenting an attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors.
However, the road ahead for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is fraught with uncertainty, as it grapples with supply chain disruptions, geopolitical risks, and increasing competition in key markets. As the EV industry continues to evolve rapidly, Tesla must demonstrate its ability to adapt to changing dynamics and deliver on its promise of revolutionizing the automotive industry.
Ultimately, Tesla's success hinges on its ability to navigate these challenges effectively and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the rapidly evolving EV landscape. While the recent downturn in stock price may dampen short-term sentiment, long-term investors may view this as a potential buying opportunity, betting on Tesla's innovative capabilities and disruptive potential to drive future growth.
Technical Outlook
Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is Trading below its 200, 100 & 50-day Moving Averages (MA) respectively with a negative Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 37. indicating an oversold condition for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) amidst market volatility.
TSLA Back at the $164.76 Support LineNASDAQ:TSLA is having a steep decline after failing to meet expectations for Q1 deliveries. The price is back at the $164.76 price level at the white support line. I think there could be a rebound here, and I would monitor the white trendline to see if the price level holds and rebounds in the short term. I think TSLA had a bearish Q1 performance, and there could be a dip into the $150 price levels before TSLA has a recovery. I think TSLA is likely to be bullish in Q2 so I'm looking for an entry over the next few weeks for a swing trade.
TESLA Macro ABC Potential $70Looking at a daily chart for Tesla we can see what has the potential for being a ABC correction wave from its drop last year.
While the current trend is still bullish a lower high or a brake of the last high, grabbing the liquidity above, with a wick back below would be a clear indication that a pull back to the main trend is possibly on it's way.
The previous all time high has a clear swing failure pattern by braking above its previous high dropping back below it and then retesting the same level with a rejection.
IF price manages to make its way back to the main trend it will have an opportunity to redeem it's self but a brake of the main trend would be another clear indication of more potential down side.
For down side targets the next support level below the current low is also corresponding with a previous fair value gap and the golden pocket retrace level of 50-61.8%.
This evaluation has nothing to do with the viability of TESLA or its future but is rather a expression of the liquidity cycle; based on the value of and availability of the currencies used to purchase these assets.
Is The EV Hype Over? How The Fed Is Destroying TeslaThe first quarter of 2024 is now over, closing in a record +10% YTD rally and an exceptional +43% YOY increase in the QQQ. Despite the markets pushing higher, Tesla is experiencing significant challenges, with a -30% decrease YTD and a -9% decline YOY. This performance has positioned Tesla as the worst performing megacap so far. Given these circumstances, it's essential to delve into both macroeconomic factors and technical analysis to understand what has happened and what is likely to happen moving forward.
The Macroeconomic Impact on Tesla
Two years ago, the Federal Reserve initiated a historic rate-hiking cycle, increasing interest rates from 0% to 5.5% within just over a year and maintaining this rate since July 2023. This shift in monetary policy has notably affected car financing rates, now at 8.2% for a five-year loan, which significantly discourages consumers from buying new vehicles, especially EVs.
The chart clearly illustrates an inverse correlation between Tesla stock and interest rates. Moreover, Tesla has operated exclusively during periods of historically low interest rates. Despite the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes nine months ago, the interest rate on car loans continues to rise. Further examination of inflation trends indicates that most common inflation measures have either plateaued or slowed their pace of deceleration, at a level inconsistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.
The M2 money supply and inflation expectations are critical indicators for predicting the direction of inflation. The peak in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) followed the peak in M2 YOY by 16 months, recently bottoming just three months before CPI YOY stopped making progress to the downside. This lagged correlation suggests that headline CPI is unlikely to continue its strong downward trend moving forward.
Moreover, inflation expectations, which remain well anchored, have also appeared to stop making progress to the downside, all remaining above 2%. This, combined with unchanged interest rates for nine months, suggests that the neutral rate of interest must be significantly higher than the pre-COVID trend.
Historically, recessions have played a key role in helping the Fed bring down inflation to their 2% target. However, current economic indicators, including low unemployment levels and easy financial conditions, suggest that a recession is unlikely in the near future, despite the fed funds rate staying unchanged at a two-decade high.
The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) captures the stimulative effects on the economy from the U.S. government's expansive fiscal policy. By borrowing and spending trillions directly from the Reverse Repo (RRP), the U.S. government has ingeniously counterbalanced the constrictive effects of tighter monetary policy without exerting upward pressure on long-term yields.
The prolonged inversion of the yield curve, significantly extended by the U.S. government's financial strategies, could mark this cycle as having the longest inversion in history. Typically, a steepening yield curve is a precursor to higher unemployment and economic recession. However, the steepening of the yield curve remains unlikely in the short term, with excess reserves still available in the RRP and the Treasury General Account (TGA).
With the U.S. employment sector still robust, showing historically low unemployment levels and low initial and continued claims, the likelihood of a significant uptrend in the unemployment rate seems low, as job openings are absorbing most of the excess labor supply and still remain well above the historical trend.
This suggests that the fed funds rate may remain at around 5% this year, maintaining car loan rates at a higher level for an extended period and consequently making EVs increasingly less affordable for the average consumer. This scenario is likely to lead to a continuation of price cuts and greater margin contractions.
Tesla's Technical Analysis Outlook
From a technical analysis perspective, Tesla stock faced rejection at the $205 horizontal resistance line and might be rejected from the $180 level, marked by the 0.236 Fibonacci level. The next significant support level is at $155, with a possibility of revisiting the January 2023 low of $110, given Tesla's stock has been in a downward trend ever since November 2021.
From a trend-based perspective, we can clearly see that TSLA stock is in a strong downtrend both in the 4H and daily timeframe with the EMAs and 20- week SMA trending lower.
Despite this unfavourable outlook, caution is advised when considering short positions in Tesla due to its market dominance and relatively stable financial position, making it a riskier target than other less financially secure EV manufacturers.
Concluding Thoughts
While the broader market demonstrates resilience, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is significantly shaping the EVs industry future. With the economy likely transitioning away from historically low interest rates into a higher interest rate environment, caution is advised. Investors may benefit from considering less interest-rate-sensitive options until a clearer picture of the inflationary landscape and its impact on the economy emerges.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
Tesla Raises Prices of Model Y Cars in US by $1,000
Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) has announced a significant price increase for its Model Y lineup in the US amidst economic turbulence. The decision comes amid supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures, indicating a strategic move by the electric vehicle giant to navigate through challenging market conditions.
Price Adjustment Amid Economic Headwinds:
Tesla has raised the prices of all Model Y cars in the US by $1,000, reflecting the company's proactive stance in managing its margins amidst rising costs. The move highlights the delicate balance between maintaining profitability and meeting consumer demand.
Impact on Consumer Sentiment and Demand:
While the price increase could deter some potential buyers, Tesla's loyal customers and high demand for its vehicles suggest that the effect on sales may be minimal. However, budget-conscious consumers may consider alternative electric vehicle options due to affordability concerns.
Investor Implications and Market Response:
Investors are closely monitoring Tesla's pricing strategies to assess the company's ability to navigate through the current economic landscape. The price adjustment may be viewed as a prudent measure to safeguard margins, but it also underscores the broader challenges facing the automotive industry.
Strategic Decision-Making Amid Uncertainty:
Tesla's decision to implement the price hike aligns with its long-term strategy of prioritizing sustainable growth and profitability. By adjusting prices in response to market dynamics, Tesla demonstrates its agility and resilience in adapting to changing economic conditions.
Long-Term Outlook and Investor Confidence:
Despite short-term fluctuations, Tesla's focus on innovation and its dominance in the electric vehicle market continue to inspire confidence among investors. The company's efforts to expand its product portfolio, enhance manufacturing efficiency, and advance autonomous driving technology position it favorably for long-term success.
Conclusion:
Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) decision to raise prices for its Model Y cars reflects the company's proactive approach to managing economic headwinds. Although the move may pose short-term challenges, Tesla's resilience and strategic vision bode well for its prospects in the dynamic automotive landscape. As investors assess the implications of this price increase, Tesla remains a key player to watch in the evolving electric vehicle market.
TESLA Can it break the 1D MA50 and sustain an uptrend?Tesla has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone pattern since the July 19 2023 High. The recent Low (March 14 2024) came very close to the 152.50 Support, which is the April 27 2023 Low. This shows just how strong the current bearish structure is.
Medium-term traders/ investors can expect a sustainable uptrend only when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, which has been the Resistance all this time since January 09 2024 (almost 3 months). If it does break above it, we expect a +41.50% rise from the bottom (+5% more than the previous Bullish Leg), targeting $225.00. That is considered conservative based on the margins of the Bearish Megaphone as the previous two Lower Highs were priced on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
The fact that the 1D MACD has already formed a Bullish Cross below the 0.00 level, favors statistically the upside case, as in the past 12 months such a signal failed to break above the 1D MA50 only once out of 4 times in total.
Until it does break it though, the trend remains bearish short-term towards Support 1 (152.50).
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Tesla Offers Free Trial Period for Full Self-DrivingTesla Inc. has launched a trial period for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology to US customers, enabling them to test the service regardless of whether they have purchased FSD. Owners of Tesla vehicles meeting FSD requirements, including those who bought their electric cars earlier, are also encouraged to participate.
With the installation of Full Self-Driving priced at 12,000 USD, Tesla anticipates that some customers will choose to pay for FSD after the trial period, potentially boosting the company's revenue and net profit. Tesla's sales volumes and margins are under pressure due to price competition with other manufacturers and decreasing demand.
Given these developments, an analysis of Tesla Inc.'s (TSLA) stock chart is warranted.
On the daily (D1) timeframe, a support level was established at 160.51 USD, with resistance at 182.87 USD. An attempt to break the downward trend is underway, and breaching the 182.87 USD resistance would indicate the start of an upward trend.
On the hourly (H1) timeframe, long positions might be of interest after breaking through the 182.87 USD level, with a short-term target at 205.60 USD. Maintaining a long position up to 233.87 USD could be considered in the medium term.
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F Bearish Bias Again SHORTFORD ( F) on a weekly chart is in a falling wedge pattern. Fundamentally, it is challenged
by the EV vs hybrid dynamic, weak EV sales and the federal slowly ramping up MPG
requirements as potentially rising gasoline prices affecting consumer decisions away from the
gas consuming F-150 where the profits are the highest. Unless F can breakout of the falling
wedge, price could compress further in the wedge with a move down as far as 9.
At present F is testing the upper resistance descending trendline. The predictive algorithm
suggests it will be rejected and fall. I am entering a short trade here for a long term swing.
Tesla - Wait For The CloseHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Tesla.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
After Tesla started an insane pump of + 3.200% in 2019, we saw a top being created in 2021 and since then, Tesla has been trending towards the downside. You can also see that there is a significant horizontal structure level at the $200 area and Tesla is about to break this level towards the downside. It is best to wait for the monthly candle close before taking new trades.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Tesla's Stock: Riding the Waves of Uncertainty Towards ClarityIn the ebbs and flows of the stock market, Tesla, once a stalwart driving force, finds itself in an unexpected position. As indices surge, Tesla's stock tumbles, raising questions about its trajectory and the narratives woven around its future. The dichotomy between bullish optimism and bearish skepticism presents investors with a conundrum: is Tesla's downturn a fleeting blip or a harbinger of deeper shifts?
The tale of Tesla's recent performance is one of contrasting fortunes. While the broader market marches onward, Tesla's shares have nosedived by an alarming 34% year to date. The disparity is stark, with Tesla now resting 60% below its historical highs, juxtaposed against a Nasdaq-100 index nearing record levels. This dissonance compels us to scrutinize Tesla's current position and forecast its trajectory with nuance.
Proponents of Tesla's resilience argue that the current slump offers a prime opportunity for entry, citing the company's strategic maneuvers for future expansion. Yet, dissenting voices assert that Tesla's descent signals a necessary correction towards a more realistic valuation, one commensurate with its maturing status in the automotive landscape.
Parsing through the data reveals a complex narrative underpinning Tesla's recent woes and its future prospects. Despite the tumultuous stock performance, Tesla's relentless march in unit volumes underscores its ascendancy as a formidable automotive player. In 2023 alone, Tesla delivered a staggering 1.8 million vehicles globally, solidifying its dominance across the electric vehicle spectrum and transcending conventional automotive boundaries.
However, this surge in volumes has not been without compromise. Tesla's strategic pivot towards more affordable offerings, epitomized by the Model 3 and Y, has catalyzed a downward spiral in prices. The ensuing price reductions, coupled with intensifying market competition, have precipitated a decline in margins and revenue growth. While revenue witnessed a modest uptick to $97 billion in 2023, the growth trajectory decelerated markedly, echoing concerns about Tesla's profitability amidst its quest for market expansion.
Looking ahead, Tesla's roadmap to sustain growth hinges on democratizing access to electric vehicles. The company's foray into unveiling a more affordable vehicle, slated for potential debut by 2025, underscores its commitment to broadening its consumer base. Yet, the efficacy of this strategy remains contingent on Tesla's ability to navigate the delicate balance between sales volume expansion and revenue optimization.
Crucially, investors must eschew myopic assessments tethered to current earnings and instead pivot towards prognosticating future trajectories. By extrapolating Tesla's potential sales volumes and applying conservative profit margin estimations, we unearth a sobering reality: Tesla's stock might face headwinds in the coming years, with its price-to-earnings ratio hovering slightly above market averages.
Navigating Tesla's stock amidst market turbulence demands a calibrated approach. While short-term fluctuations may tantalize opportunistic investors, a prudent evaluation of Tesla's long-term growth narrative is paramount. Whether Tesla emerges as a phoenix from the ashes of its stock downturn or grapples with prolonged stagnation remains uncertain. In the crucible of market dynamics, foresight and discernment serve as steadfast guides for investors charting Tesla's enigmatic trajectory.
Tesla Offers U.S. Customers Free Trial of its Driver-Assist TechTesla CEO Elon Musk announced a groundbreaking initiative offering U.S. customers a month-long trial of the driver-assist system. This move comes at a crucial juncture for the electric carmaker as it grapples with softening demand and intensified price competition, factors that have been exerting pressure on its sales and margins.
Musk, a staunch advocate for autonomous driving, has long positioned FSD as a potential revenue driver for Tesla. However, the company has faced persistent challenges in fulfilling his vision of achieving full autonomy, encountering regulatory hurdles and legal scrutiny regarding the safety and marketing claims of its vehicles.
Despite these challenges, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) remains undeterred, with Musk declaring on social media platform X, "All U.S. cars that are capable of FSD will be enabled for a one-month trial this week." Additionally, Tesla staff have been instructed to provide demonstrations of FSD to new buyers and owners of serviced vehicles, signaling a concerted effort to bolster confidence in the technology.
However, amidst these efforts, data suggests a decline in the adoption of FSD among North American customers. Researcher Troy Teslike highlights a significant drop in the "FSD take rate" from a peak of 53% in the third quarter of 2019 to just 14% in the third quarter of 2022. This trend, coupled with ongoing price wars with competitors, has eroded Tesla's margins and prompted warnings of subdued delivery growth for the year ahead.
Analysts, such as Sam Abuelsamid from Guidehouse Insights, view Tesla's latest move as part of a series of end-of-quarter maneuvers by Musk aimed at bolstering deliveries and revenues. Abuelsamid notes, "The combination of substantial price cuts on the vehicles and dramatically lower FSD take rates has severely hurt Tesla’s margins."
Despite the challenges, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) remains committed to democratizing access to FSD, offering it as a subscription service priced at $199 a month. However, it's essential to note that Tesla emphasizes FSD does not render its vehicles fully autonomous and necessitates active driver supervision.
In conclusion, Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) decision to offer a month-long trial of its FSD technology underscores its determination to push the boundaries of autonomous driving despite market headwinds. As the company navigates through evolving consumer preferences and competitive pressures, the success of this initiative could prove pivotal in shaping Tesla's future trajectory in the rapidly evolving automotive landscape.
TESLA: Bullish Continuation & Long Trade
TESLA
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long TESLA
Entry Point - 170.74
Stop Loss - 163.69
Take Profit - 184.25
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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TSLA BEARISH !!Tesla (TSLA) has been an icon of innovation and disruption in the automotive industry, but recent developments indicate stormy weather ahead for the electric vehicle giant. Despite its past successes, TSLA's trajectory seems to be shifting towards a rocky road, with multiple factors signaling a potential downturn.
Production Hurdles: Tesla's ambitious production targets may be difficult to sustain, especially in the face of supply chain disruptions and increasing competition in the electric vehicle market. Delays or failures in meeting these targets could significantly impact investor confidence.
Regulatory Challenges: Regulatory scrutiny surrounding Tesla's Autopilot feature and concerns over safety standards pose a considerable threat to the company's growth prospects. Any adverse regulatory actions or increased oversight could lead to market volatility and downward pressure on TSLA stock.
Valuation Concerns: Tesla's sky-high valuation appears increasingly disconnected from its fundamentals. With a Price-to-Earnings ratio that far exceeds industry norms, TSLA's stock may be vulnerable to a significant correction as investors reassess its growth prospects and intrinsic value.
Market Saturation: As the electric vehicle market becomes more crowded, Tesla faces intensified competition from both traditional automakers and new entrants. This heightened competition could erode Tesla's market share and put downward pressure on its margins.
Macroeconomic Headwinds: Economic uncertainties, including inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions, could dampen consumer spending and reduce demand for high-priced electric vehicles. Tesla's dependence on consumer confidence and discretionary spending leaves it vulnerable to broader economic trends.
Given these challenges, a bearish outlook on TSLA seems warranted. Traders may consider selling or shorting TSLA with a target price of $100, representing a potential return of 89%. This medium-term strategy aligns with the anticipated headwinds facing Tesla and offers an opportunity to profit from the stock's likely downward trajectory.
As always, traders should conduct their own research and consider their risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. Keep a close eye on key developments and market trends to adjust your strategy accordingly.
Tesla Stock Plummet On China's Production CutTesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) has reduced production at its Shanghai factory amid slowing EV demand in the world's largest auto market. The move to cut production in China also comes as the global EV giant is heading towards a likely first-quarter delivery miss and has announced vehicle prices will begin to increase.
Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is reducing production at the China plant to five days a week. The output cuts started earlier in March and could continue through April, Bloomberg reported Friday.
The action comes amid slowing EV growth in China and with Tesla's Shanghai facility already not producing at full capacity. Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) observers have repeatedly said in recent weeks that global inventory appears high.
This week, local media reported Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) will slightly raise China list prices on Model Y vehicles starting on April 1, following similar plans in the U.S. and Europe. Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is also offering discounts between $1,000-$1,500 in China on inventory Model Y vehicles. Inventory discounts are more significant in the U.S. and Europe.
First-Quarter Deliveries Below Expectations
The global EV company ended 2023 on a high in China. However, the EV dynamic in China has changed early in 2024. Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk has also said China's EV companies are Tesla's main competition — with BYD (BYDDF), Nio (NIO), Li Auto (LI) and others all making inroads in the EV market.
Tesla China delivered 60,365 in February, down around 19% compared to last year, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Chinese New Year ran for two weeks in February, from Feb. 10-Feb. 24. Tesla deliveries of China-made vehicles in January and February totaled 131,812, down 6% compared to 2023.
Cutting Shanghai production would be further confirmation of weakening demand not only in China, but in Europe and other key markets. Shanghai exports to Europe have waned over the past several months, while the Tesla Berlin factory is running well below capacity.
Meanwhile, with the first quarter ending soon, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) appears to be heading for a delivery miss. Wall Street consensus currently still has Q1 deliveries of 481,000 units, according to FactSet, but many analysts have cut predictions in recent days. Tesla is expected to report Q1 deliveries in early April.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA shares fell 3.3% to 167.14 during market action Friday. Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) shares has a weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 38.26 indicating selling pressure.
Last week, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock dropped 6.7% to 163.57, hitting new 2024 lows and levels not seen since May 2023. NASDAQ:TSLA is down more than 14% in March and the biggest loser on the S&P 500 index so far in 2024.
UBS last week cut its Tesla stock price target to 165, from 225, and maintained a neutral rating on the shares. UBS lowered its Q1 delivery forecast to 432,000 units, from its previous 466,000 view. The firm also cut full-year deliveries to 1.96 million units, from 2.02 million previously.
With 2023 in retrospect, analyst consensus now has 2024 Tesla earnings below 2023's level. That signals another year of earnings declines for this growth stock. Wall Street expects Tesla earnings per share of just $2.96 a share in 2024, according to FactSet. That would be around a 5% decline vs. last year's $3.12.