TSLA bearish outlookIf you follow me then you know that we played the GAP fill on NASDAQ:TSLA with success and now we look to change our view and go bearish. Some have sized this up as a Bear Flag but i see a rising wedge formation that has broken down and we look to short $TSLA. I have given it room to move with such a massive move down but we should see continued weakness and a break of the recent bottom.
Tesla Motors (TSLA)
TESLA: Long Trade Explained
TESLA
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long TESLA
Entry Point - 175.34
Stop Loss - 168.70
Take Profit - 191.02
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
NIO Long on Disappointing EarningsNIO's disappointing earnings were not a surprise. Given the context of China's recession, NIO
did better than many expected. TSLA is down as well. NIO is doing as well as most of its peers.
On the 120 minute chart, NIO is down 60% from the end of the year highs. The RSI indicator
confirms that NIO is in oversold undervalued territory. NIO is at the bottom of the high volume
area of the profile and has been trending down with the first lower VWAP line as resistance.
I see NIO as likely to trend up as the China economy improves and for that to be reflected
in the next earnings report. NIO's innovative battery swapping program where the car owner
buys a car without a battery and is able to swap out an energy depleted battery for a freshly
charged one in 3 minutes at any of the NIO owned battery stations as a way for NIO
to excel no matter competition from the others in China including TSLA. NIO is now selling
cars in Scandinavia which should serve as steeping stone to further expansion in Europe.
TSLA to NIO market cap comparisonOn a down market day I decided to look at the comparision of market cap between TSLA and NIO by a share price ratio basis. On the daily chart, albeit with fluctuations, TSLA is continuously gaining market cap compared with NIO. This ratio allows for a tool to help decide whether to buy TSLA or NIO.
In short, TSLA is a buy at the low pivots of the ratio, while NIO is the buy at the high pivots which is right now.
Conversely, TSLA is a sell or short at the high pivots while NIO is a sell at the low pivots.
The trade right now is sell TSLA to decrease the position and use the proceeds to buy
NIO either in bulk or in increments to average in.
TESLA What Next? BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for TESLA below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 175.34
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 195.09
Safe Stop Loss - 165.33
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TESLA: Bottomed and has huge upside potential.Tesla got almost oversold technically on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 36.047, MACD = -6.760, ADX = 34.229) as it made a new 10 month Low trading under both the 1D MA50 and MA200. The 1D CCI though is reversing, being traded inside a Channel Down. The previous two times this pattern emerged, Tesla formed a bottom. In November-December 2023 , the price rallied by +35.91% and in May-July 2023, by +97.38%. This gives us a buy opportunity with a huge upside potential, a short term target (TP = 235.50) and long term (TP = 340.00).
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More Pain for TSLA - $165 or LowerI get a lot of questions about TSLA, and I can tell that many of you are eager to buy this TSLA dip. However, I'm seeing a lot of bearish signs for TSLA and I don't think there will be a buy opportunity any time soon. The green support level has flipped into resistance, and TSLA is forming a strong move down this week. I have $164.76 as a key price target for a rebound. I think TSLA and the EV market are weak right now, we can see lower prices over the next few months.
TSLA's triangle just broke—can it reclaim or will it slide?NASDAQ:TSLA reported quarterly earnings after hours. The initial reaction has been negative but that can sometimes change during the volatility that continues during the conference call and later the next few days.
This post will not delve into the fundamentals as a some prior posts have done. After all, markets are presumably efficient and discount all new information very rapidly, and surely algorithimic programs have already processed the report and its ramifications for the future. So the following charts will look at technical analysis alone.
From a technical perspective, TSLA had been in a large triangle that appears to be breaking over the last couple of weeks. This is true on both logarithmically scaled charts and linear / arithmetic charts. The log-scaled chart shows a somewhat bigger break so far than the linear scaled chart.
Supplementary Chart A shows a logarithmically scaled chart of this triangle.
Supplementary Chart A (Log)
Supplementary Chart B (Linear)
TSLA has been in an uptrend since its bear-market lows in early January 2023. But as prior posts have discussed, the next larger degree of trend is surely sideways, going back to the all-time highs. A simple box drawn around price on a monthly or weekly chart since even somewhat before the all-time highs shows this sideways range.
Next, consider that since the all-time high was reached, TSLA retraced to its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and failed on its first attempt at cracking that level as shown in the next chart.
Supplementary Chart C (61.8% Fibonacci retracement)
Furthermore, TSLA has struggled mightily at its all-time high anchored VWAP. At least six major breakout attempts above this VWAP have failed since TSLA formed its all-time high. See Supplemental Chart D below, showing the all-time-high VWAP in magenta. So have the failures to succeed in a break above this VWAP exhausted themselves so that next one or two will surely succeed as the bulls might want to argue? Or have the failures only reinforced the bears' case? Until price can recover this $234 area, it's tough to be bullish on TSLA.
Supplementary Chart D
More recent anchored VWAPs also make the bull case difficult to see for the time being. These are shown in the next supplementary chart. The key levels from these VWAPs are $241.72 and $214.62.
Supplementary Chart E (Other Major VWAPs)
And price hasn't been able to poke a head above the YTD anchored VWAP either the last 3 weeks as shown in Supplementary Chart F.
Supplementary Chart F (YTD VWAP)
Finally, consider that the major 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current uptrend from January 2023 lies at $177.25. This is an all-important support level for bulls who think TSLA is merely consolidating its uptrend from January 2023 lows.
Supplementary Chart G (Another 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the January 2023 lows to July 2023 highs)
These technicals don't present a trade idea or attempt to reinforce a bear or bull case for anyone who is so positioned. But it does attempt to read the technical landscape as it now stands, without any sort of bullish or bearish bias from fundamentals or macro environment. The overall case isn't bullish until key levels can be recovered. Until then, lows might be tested if price can't quickly find its way back into the consolidative safety of the triangle shown.
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Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
TSLA - Weekly chart still Bearish. Still no buy signal. Daily and Weekly charts are both Downtrend and Bearish.
TSLA Price Structure forming Support and Resistant at every 50$ interval.
i.e Major Support and Resistant are at 100, 150, 200, 250, 300... (Please remember this levels)
We have seen 250 rejection Dec 2023, Breaks 205 Jan 2024, pullback and rejection at 205 last couple weeks.
205 is now become Support turned Resistant. Next Support is around 150..
Expect technical rebound around this area which can be an opportunity for hit and run BUY trade (Intraday / Short term trade againts HTF direction.).. Otherwise, stay out until buy signal appear..
Currently, Turtle Sell signal (Price Action) triggers in both DAILY and WEEKLY charts with MCDX Buying Momentum is DOWN while Selling Momentum is Up
Selling Volume / Retailer is DOMINATING Buying Volume / Banker ( 68% Retailer vs 8% Banker )
Note : 0% Banker in DAILY CHART..
Why I technically feel, Tesla is ready to build 30X againKeep It Simple and Trade With the Trend.
As a trader, you have probably heard the old adage that it is best to "trade with the trend." The trend, say all the pundits, is your friend. This is sage advice as long as you know and can accept that the trend can end. And then the trend is not your friend. There are multiple ways to spot trends, direction, and momentum.
So how can we determine the direction of the trend?
Let's take a look on the KISS rule, which says, "Keep it (as much as possible) simple, stupid!" Here is a method of determining the trend, and a simple method of anticipating the end of the trend.
Before we've started, it should be mentioned the importance of time frames in determining the trend. Usually, when we are analyzing long-term investments, the long-term time frame (one-week or larger) dominates the shorter time frames. However, for intraday purposes, the shorter time frame could be of greater value. Trades can be divided into three classes of trading styles or segments: the intra-day, the swing, and the position trade.
Large commercial traders, such as those companies setting up production in a foreign country, might be interested in the fate of the currency over a long period of such as months or years. But for speculators, a weekly chart can be accepted as the "long-term".
Averages Moving in Pairs
With a weekly chart as the initial reference, we can then go about determining the long-term trend for a speculative trader. To do this, we will resort to two very useful tools that will help us determine the stage of the trend. These two tools are the simple moving average and the exponential moving average.
Going further and keeping in mind all the mentioned above rules, lets build the trend.
Darlings, well graphed Tesla stocks trend is still the same as in 2019, where it started 30x gain.
Anybody tried to get all the path at those times? There's a chance you'll miss it again!
TSLA Stock Price Falls Over 9% in Just 2 DaysTSLA Stock Price Falls Over 9% in Just 2 Days
The day before yesterday, trading in TSLA shares began at an opening price of USD 199.34; trading yesterday closed at a price of USD 180.51. The fall in TSLA shares led Musk to lose the title of the world's richest man to Jeff Bezos.
The main driver of the decline in the price of TSLA shares was news:
→ about the temporary shutdown of the Giga Berlin plant in Germany after an arson set by a group claiming that the company led by Elon Musk is devouring “land, resources, people”;
→ that deliveries of electric cars from the Shanghai plant have dropped to their lowest level in more than a year — which may indicate fierce competition with Chinese manufacturers.
It also became known that Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is lowering his target price from USD 345 to USD 320 and predicting a decline in sales for FY24.
Technical analysis of the TSLA stock chart shows that:
→ The TSLA stock price is moving in a downward channel (shown in red), acting noticeably weaker than the broader market.
→ In March, the median line acted as resistance.
→ The price was unable to consolidate above the round level of USD 200 (in November last year it worked as support).
If the bearish momentum continues, TSLA price could reach the channel's lower boundary around USD 170, renewing its 2024 low. Even lower is important support at USD 155, formed from a gap last January and tested in April.
On the other hand, the current decline may turn into a profitable opportunity in the long term.
As it became known this week, Cathie Wood's ARK funds are increasing their long positions in TSLA shares. And respected analyst Daniel Ives said on CNBC that Tesla's growth story isn't dead and it's just going through a "brutal transition" that could be linked to deteriorating communication due to the company replacing its chief financial officer last year.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
TSLA breaks below its support and tries to recoverTSLA has gone through a significant sell off recently from its high of 200. After breaking below its support line its has recovered some.
This does not appear to be a false breakout down as the stock has failed to recover enough to be above the resistance.
We should expect it to bounce off the resistance level and sell off some more.
Overall I remain bearish for the next month or so as the stock market starts its decent and Tesla is sensitive to market cycles
TSLA undervalued relative to Magnificent 7
Support Case:
I've spotted a reverse head and shoulders indicating a reversal to the upside (bullish) up into the region of 212-206. Additionally there's a zone below the left shoulder at 178 down to 162 where Tesla has bounced from previously. So pretty good support from what I can see.
Bullish Breakout Potential:
I've drawn a symmetrical triangle from the most recent price action starting on February 16th, forming through today the 22nd of February. I'm targeting the 212-206 region for a price on TSLA for this bullish set up to reach. I've bought 255 Strike Calls on TSLA at $0.76 each, looking to sell them back at a higher price.
Let's see how this goes, and happy trading.
* Magnificent 7 comparative analysis. While the rest of them have been doing quite well for the most part, Tesla seems to be the laggard in the pack. While I do think the Magnificent 7 is an AI bubble, with actual results to come in the next 2-5 years from this tech, this seems to be an overinflated exuberance. While being cautious, I'm still playing TSLA for this reason.