Tesla Motors (TSLA)
TESLA Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for TESLA below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 218.79
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 240.72
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TSLA Caught in Vortex of Conflicting TechnicalsPrimary Chart : TSLA's 2D Price Chart with .618 Fibonacci Retracement of Decline from All-Time High to Jan. 2023 Low and Various Degrees of Trend Represented by Conflicting Channels
SUMMARY:
1. TSLA's technicals are unclear and conflicting. The trend from the 2021 all-time high remains downward until broken. The trend from the January 2023 low remains upward but somewhat choppy and unstable. The trend from the July 2023 high remains choppy and downward until broken.
2. Institutional buying into year end may be supportive of prices, allowing short-term traders to buy dips to well-defined support / risk levels into early January 2024. Until more structural change occurs providing more clarity, it's difficult to have confidence in any trend other than the shortest ones.
3. Once the next multi-month trend move occurs, some may look back and say that its was obvious and inevitable, offering post hoc arguments based on data that can be manipulated to support opposite outcomes. But today, unambiguous data pointing to a clear directional outcome is lacking (especially on intermediate and longer-term time frames).
4. Severely inverted yield curves suggest pressure on the economy and equity markets in the coming year or two. But as the lessons of the dot-com crash have taught us, markets can rally violently into their own recessionary demise.
The downward channel from the July 18, 2023, swing high has been the only pattern working lately. The last decline in late October 2023 was bought, and this dip fell to support at the downward sloping parallel channel. Bulls may see this as a bull flag, and it might be, but a breakout above the downward-sloping trendline from TSLA's all-time high stands in the way of a potential flag-breakout. Further, bears may reasonably see the channel from January 2023 as a bear flag within the larger downtrend from 2021. These conflicting technicals are worth watching over the coming weeks and months for resolution.
Supplementary Chart A
If one zooms out on TSLA's chart and looks at the past two years of price action, price action has largely been sideways in a trading range. This is despite the vicious decline starting November 2021 and lasting for over a year as well as the violent rallies and choppy uptrend in 2023. This sideways range seems to contain both the bear and bull markets of 2021-2023. Trading ranges are also known as chop, which is why trends on all time frames have likely been less predictable, disappointing many traders and investors during this time unless they have major equity cushions from many years ago or trade only the shorter time frames.
Supplementary Chart B
Because the larger degree trends over a two-year to three-year period has been primarily sideways, the trends within it have been less reliable and more likely to chop up TSLA investors.
Anchored VWAPs shown below also confirm this analysis of choppy, sideways action that is less predictable overall. Over the past year, notice all the failed breakouts above and below the key VWAPs anchored to major turning points. There are many.
Supplementary Chart C
Supplementary Chart D
Supplementary Chart D shows how the moving averages also are tangled, messy and sideways, presenting conflicting signals.
In conclusion, TSLA's technical charts remain conflicted and unclear. Many disciplined traders or investors with a short-term to intermediate-term time frame may wish to define risk clearly and keep losses small or else stay away. The Primary Chart reveals just how challenging TSLA's price action is for trend traders and investors. A downtrend from TSLA's all-time high remains unbroken as the downward sloping parallel channel shows. An uptrend from TSLA's January 2023 low also remains relatively stable despite the volatility seen this year. And a 4-month downtrend channel has been in play since July 2023. Any one of these technical trendlines could break one way or the other, but as of Thanksgiving, none have been broken and these data points remain unavailable for market participants wanting long or short exposure to TSLA.
What should traders and investors do? Some may vent the useless nature of a post that says a stock can go up, down or sideways on intermediate to long-term time frames. Others may see that TSLA doesn't have a clear directional play except on the shortest time frames, which is based on the currently available data. So perhaps wait patiently for more data and simply do nothing—the hardest thing for fidgety trader and DIY investor types, right? Those sitting on a large equity cushion may wish to tighten stops a bit to $200 (assuming their entries are much lower). Those with no position may want to just wait for more clarity.
Short-term traders who believe institutional flows into year end will buoy markets broadly and lead to higher prices into year end (and first week of January 2024) may wish to keep an eye on critical support at $200-$220 evidenced by the green VWAP anchored to October 2023 lows as shown on the Primary Chart. If this author were to have a bias, it would lean in this direction into year end and early January 2024, but it's a weak bias that can't be strongly held.
Such a thesis, like any other trading viewpoint, isn't guaranteed at all even though it may have a reasonable probability of being correct. This is why a stop (risk level) is needed. Upside targets in such a scenario would require a decisive move above the .618 Fibonacci retracement level and for that level to hold first. It's possible that the move off October 2023 lows could be consolidated first, where bullish TSLA traders may watch $200-$220 support levels. If a dip were to create a better entry for traders into year end, then upside targets might be considered as follows:
Conservative: $250-$255
Aggressive: $275-$280
Extremely Aggressive: $300-$310
As always, risk should be well managed so that the reward / risk ratio remains higher and the losses kept small. And keep in mind that TSLA-related news catalysts, including the ones from this past week, may have a tendency to yank price around and create formidable volatility.
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Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
TSLA: Neutral to Slightly Bullish Next Two WeeksHappy New Year everyone! This short video explains the technical view for TSLA as we start 2024. From a technical standpoint alone, its difficult to be wildly bullish or bearish right now. There may be other fundamental or macro reasons to take a more bullish or bearish view in the intermediate to long term. In short, neutral to slightly bullish makes sense over the next couple weeks for this stock.
Best of luck!
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Tesla bear planCongrats if you were short Tesla before today!
Not to kill the vibe or anything, but I see a gap that may want to close before Tesla falls further. I think the downgrade issued today was justified. I like $180 - $160. If the gap doesn't close then we could see these prices in the very near term.
These moves in Tesla always happen fast, if you weren't already short Tesla before today, wait to see if it comes back and closes the gap before getting into a position. There will be dip buyers and 3 standard deviation moves on any given day are common for this stock, but the stock should still find its way lower.
TESLA: Bullish Continuation is Highly Probable! Here is Why:
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to buy TESLA.
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AMD?interesting chart. i have the AVWAP at the 52 week low showing confluence with the support trend line. after earnings and fed speak we broke out the channel. were coming close to geting above the 0.68 fib retrace from last high 132/133ish area.
were also tradin above the 200-100-50 moving averages
that can also be a giant bull flag and cup and handle and all those measured moves take you to key areas. idk if it gets there or when. but just a text book looking chart right now.
$TSLA #Tesla, just dump it...The TSLA chart indicates a notable presence of lower gaps that are yet to be filled. These lower gaps signify potential areas where the stock might experience downward movements to reach previous price levels. The current situation suggests that if the support levels represented by rectangles do not hold, there is a higher likelihood of rapid downward penetration.
Investors and traders should closely monitor these support levels as they play a crucial role in determining the stock's future trajectory.
TESLA Breaking below the 1W MA50 again but NOT a BUY yet.Three weeks ago we mentioned the importance of the All Time High (ATH) Lower Highs trend-line on Tesla (TSLA) and how critical it would be for the price to finally break above it for the first time in more than 2 years:
The 'Do or die moment' as we called it failed to deliver and the price got emphatically rejected on the Lower Highs for the 5th time. This rejection has brought the price below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) yet again on pre-market. The natural zone of Support now is the January 06 2023 Higher Lows trend-line (Cycle bottom) and the April 27 2023 Higher Lows (dashed) trend-line. As long as it holds, we expect a short-term bounce and another test of the ATH Lower Highs trend-line.
If the stock breaks above the ATH Lower Highs, we will buy for a long-term rally and target 345.00. If the price breaks below the (dashed) April 27 2023 Higher Lows, we can expect a bottom as low as even 180.00, which is the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line) of the Channel Down that started on the July 19 2023 High. If the 1D RSI though breaks first the 30.00 oversold barrier, we will take the profit on shorts and turn into a long-term buy (Target at $345.00 again) as every time the RSI turned oversold at 30.00, since December 2022, it was the most efficient buy opportunity we could get.
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TSLA SHORT with leverage TSDD ETFThis 1.5X leveraged ETF inverses the price action of TSLA with some amplification.
From the continuance of inflation, to Hertz liquidating 20,000 EVs ( prominent among them is
TSLA) in favor of return to ICEs to the rise of BYD in China and the ever present Musk in the
news like firing Space X employees without due process, TSLA is challenged and analysts
are calling for lower projected stock price. This is a way short TSLA at a lower price and risk.
The 2H chart shows a bullish HA candle today as price crossed over the longer trend following
moving average. Likewise, the RSI lines crossed over the 50 level rising from lows to end 2023.
This is an inexpensive stock without an options chain that has 60% near term potential should
it rise to its early November high at $28 A 0.5 Fib retrace of its down trend from that high in
November would bring price to $22. I will target $22 for 75% of the position and make the 25%
run for the $28 target while a stop loss of $.50 will allow for a normal range while rising to
the targets. I will raise the stop loss to break even after price rises by 0.55 and set a trailing
stop of $.50 once price rises by $0.75. I expect the trade to be in profit early and then
continuously increasing after that with a good backstop. TSLA's quarterly report comes out
on January 24th; this catalyst could accelerate profit if the report is less than expected by
investors and analysts. On the other hand, a fairly tight stop loss of about 3% will protect
the trade against a good earnings/revenue report whicch would surprise many.
loss of
TSLA_1WTesla shares are in the position of buying and long-term investment
In Time Weekly, there is a possibility of the formation of the head and shoulder pattern of the floor, and with the breaking of the upward trend line, it is a confirmation for the growth and value of Tesla shares, which can advance the 500 target.
The main and important support is the 215 range.
TSLA and GME showing a very strong correlationI was just looking at both TSLA and GME on the hourly and low and behold, these charts are almost identical. Both inside falling wedges, and both with double bottoms. I'm unsure of the exact fundamentals on this one, but the charts do show that they are moving in unison. Keeping close eye on this.
TSLA: Has finally reached its critical support (D & W analysis)!TSLA shares have corrected to the support level we identified in our last public analysis, in the vicinity of the green line at $230, between the 50ma and the 200ma. In fact, it looks like the 200ma is serving as our last support, since the price is bouncing right back after hitting this indicator. The link to my previous public analysis is below this post, as usual.
Volume has fallen sharply and TSLA's shares are very weak, as it is the only one among the "magnificent 7" that is not showing any signs of recovery this week.
In two weeks the company will release its earnings report, and this will be an important event, but until then, we don't see any technical signs suggesting a bottom. Yes, the price has reached an extremely important support point, but we need to see confirmation of a bottom signal to believe in a decent recovery.
Despite the signs of weakness, the price is not in a downtrend yet, for that we need to see LHs/LLs. Now, let’s look at the weekly chart:
From a technical point of view, the next resistance is around $300, the previous top. Can TSLA get there? In theory yes, but in practice we need to see a clear bottom signal, as mentioned in the analysis of the daily chart.
You have to admit that if TSLA were going to react, now would be the perfect time, we just need confirmation. On the other hand, if the price loses the critical support point on the daily chart, nothing would prevent a sharper correction on the weekly chart, perhaps to its next support around $207, or even to the support line of its Descending Channel. This would frustrate the breakout of the previous resistance of this channel, characterizing a false breakout, a powerful bearish signal.
If you ask my personal opinion, I wish to see TSLA making a bottom around this support area, as the Risk/Reward ratio for a long trade would be attractive, however, we see no confirmation yet, and there is no meaningful bullish reaction suggesting a possible recovery yet.
I’ll keep you updated on this, so consider following me for more analysis like this, and support this idea if you liked it.
All the best,
Nathan.
Falling wedge breakout on TSLA hourlyLooking at the massive falling wedge breakout on TSLA hourly chart. Also notice the oscillator on the Ultimate RSI, just crossed north of 50 and looks like it wants to retest those +70 levels once again. The next supply zone sitting at $240-$242, if we break through that the next zone after that will be $248-$250, and if we break that we should see $255-$265. If not we will break back down to demand at $235-$230. This and NVDA breaking out, along with AAPL could bring a nice lift back up for SPY...
Tesla - Expecting The BreakoutHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Tesla.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
All the way back in 2019 Tesla broke out of a longer term falling triangle formation. This breakout was followed by a crazy pump of more than 1.500%. At the moment Tesla is once again forming a falling triangle formation and if Tesla breaks above the resistance trendline which I mentioned in my analysis, we could certainly see another crazy rally with new all time highs.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
TSLA Trendline RetestTSLA breakout failed to end the year but is now currently backtesting the trendline. It's been surfing the 200 EMA, and If that holds, this seems like a great risk reward spot to go long. A red to green open would provide a great entry. 5 straight days down and then a doji candle smells like a possible reversal as well. Initial Targets $250 $265
💹 TSLA next week prevision 💹Bearish beginning of the week looking for 100% of movement 3 of the Elliot wave. It can go down to the 231.16 area at least. Afterwards it can have a slight rise looking for movement 4 to 238.85 minimum to continue falling to 225.51 or more. In general bearish trend during this week with few options to go long.