$TSLA downside reversal NASDAQ:TSLA downside reversal after the strong downside resistance. Find out more and how to trade it
Tesla Motors (TSLA)
$TSLA COMPLETE ELLIOT WAVE ANALYSIS According to the Elliott Wave theory, NASDAQ:TSLA has been following a corrective wave pattern (ABC) since its inception, reaching its peak during the 2021 bull run. Currently, NASDAQ:TSLA has completed both wave 1 and wave 2, entering the critical and highly impulsive wave 3 towards the downside of the Elliott Wave sequence. The fundamental outlook for NASDAQ:TSLA appears weakened due to intense competition in the market. In the long term, NASDAQ:TSLA is displaying a heavy bearish trend.
While specific targets for the remaining waves are uncertain at this time, one thing is clear – NASDAQ:TSLA is not expected to surpass wave 2, which is positioned at $299.
$TSLA update (after Earnings report)Yesterday we saw a gap down on report, so I'd like to update NASDAQ:TSLA idea.
The stock was pretty weak yesterday and as a result the price didn't hold the 200 zone as I mentioned here: .
But overall, we still have the Weekly Inv. H&S. The left shoulder level is 180. Another support level here is the lower boundary of the descending channel. Yesterday, stock touched exactly this level.
I believe the stock is in a very good place to buy. Through which trigger do it - it's a personal choice.
Here is How to Go Long TSLA Given Cybertruck Event Tonightthe long-awaited Tesla Cybertruck event is happening tonight, and investors are eager to see how the unveiling will impact TSLA stock. If you're thinking about going long on TSLA, here are a few things to keep in mind:
Consider the Potential Impact of the Event
The Cybertruck event is a major catalyst for TSLA, and it has the potential to send the stock price soaring. However, it's important to remember that the event could also go the other way, and TSLA could experience a sell-off if the event is underwhelming.
Weigh the Risks and Rewards
Going long on TSLA is a risky proposition, but it also has the potential to be very rewarding. If you're comfortable with the risks, then going long could be a great way to capitalize on the potential upside of the Cybertruck event.
Choose Your Strategy
There are a few different ways to go long on TSLA. You could buy shares of the stock outright, or you could use a more nuanced strategy, such as buying call options.
Manage Your Risk
It's important to manage your risk when going long on TSLA. This means setting a stop-loss order to limit your losses in case the stock price falls.
The Bottom Line
Going long on TSLA is a risky proposition, but it also has the potential to be very rewarding. If you're comfortable with the risks, and you've done your research, then going long could be a great way to capitalize on the potential upside of the Cybertruck event.
Let me know if you are going long the CT event tonight in the comment section.
TESLA - IF THE SHOW MUST GO ON, IT IS NOW! (TARGET $315)The markets are starting strong this year except for one late bloomer: TESLA! But I thinks it is time for Musk's prodigy to go fourth to new heights. Here's my perspective on things:
What is on the chart?
1) An attractive liquidity level that will be our swing target of $315 (oh no spoiler alert).
2) We have not only a bullish gap but also a bullish weekly FVG that accompanied the break of structure (high taken out that shifted the market structure from bearish to bullish).
3) Huge accumulation structure which clearly to me is bullish but who knows maybe a Cybertruck will drive into a playground (jk).
4) This is the biggest driver (vroom vroom) of this analysis. A huge weekly wick in a weekly bullish GAP. What else do you want?
5) Our last chance to enter. If we're bullish, this is where you want to enter. Price is giving you a gift. Take it.
6) This would mark the continuation of the bullish price action. A higher high is often under looked and can provide enough info for a strong reliable bias.
7) This is our primary target. Nothing else to say here.
As always, happy trading and enjoy your weekend!! ;)
Looking at Possible Dead Cat Bounce Levels After TSLA EarningsDepending on investor sentiment, I am expecting 3 possibilities, listed from most positive to least positive investor sentiment:
In Purple (most positive): Bounce to $196-$198 fib levels, decaying to $188-192 range.
In Yellow: Bounce to $192-$194 fib levels, decaying to $184-186 range.
In red (worst): Little to no bounce, very pessimistic view on stock, decaying straight to $180-182.
If we hit red, or maybe even yellow, we are looking at a rough 2024 (See my triple top and dip Idea.)
Tesla Faces Headwinds: EV Fleet Sale and Intense Price WarTesla experienced a notable setback, with its stock falling as much as 4.2% during Friday's trading session. This decline marks the 11th drop in 12 sessions. The dip follows Hertz Global Holdings Inc.'s announcement of plans to sell off a third of its U.S. electric-vehicle fleet, contributing to the downward pressure on Tesla's shares.
Adding to the challenges, Tesla has been navigating a complex landscape in China. Since late 2022, the company has engaged in a series of price cuts, triggering responses from other manufacturers and putting pressure on profit margins across the industry. Domestic players like Xpeng Inc. and BYD Co., as well as global giants like Volkswagen AG, have joined the price-cutting competition to defend their market share
Technically we have a good opportunity to position, but as I always advise in my posts don't take full size position before the move is already happening. 0.5 Risk now with another addition of 0.5 to the full risk which as a Risk Management should not be more than 1-2% of the total portfolio.
BOOST THE IDEA AND COMMENT YOUR OPINION
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Tesla's $50 Bil Plunge: Navigating Challenges & the Road Ahead
In a shocking turn of events, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ), the world's most valuable electric carmaker, saw its stock plummet by over 12%, wiping out a staggering $50 billion in market capitalization. The nosedive came on the heels of disappointing Q4 earnings, where Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) reported a 40% decline in earnings per share and warned of potentially lower growth in 2024. CEO Elon Musk attributed the slump to a price war with a Chinese-made rival, impacting the company's bottom line.
Challenges and Margin Pressures:
Tesla's fourth-quarter earnings fell short of analysts' expectations, with a gross margin of 17.6%, compared to 23.8% a year earlier. Automotive gross margin, a closely watched figure, dropped to 17.2%, reflecting a price war-induced strain. Musk acknowledged the challenges, particularly the pressure on profit margins, and warned that the company does not have a clear picture of how margins will evolve in 2024.
Redwood Initiative:
In a bid to revitalize growth, Musk announced an ambitious initiative to launch a new mass-market electric vehicle code-named "Redwood" by mid-2025. Described as a compact crossover, this move is crucial for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) as it seeks to stay competitive and navigate the evolving landscape of the electric vehicle market. The announcement, however, raised questions about the timeline and potential impact on Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) overall strategy.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment:
Unsurprisingly, Tesla's stock experienced a 12% decline, reaching $181.70 in Thursday's market action. With Musk's recent push to increase his stake from 13% to 25%, and his ambitious vision for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) to become a leader in AI and robotics, investor sentiment has become a focal point. Musk's demand for more shares and voting power adds another layer of complexity to the company's future trajectory.
2024 Outlook and Uncertainties:
As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) braces for a year of potential challenges, Musk emphasized the importance of executing key projects such as the next-generation vehicle, energy storage, and full self-driving. However, uncertainties linger, including the impact of ongoing price cuts, supply-demand dynamics in the electric vehicle market, and the evolving regulatory landscape.
Conclusion:
Tesla's recent financial turbulence underscores the inherent volatility of the electric vehicle sector. The Redwood initiative, though promising, adds an element of uncertainty to the company's future. As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) navigates the challenges posed by a price war, shifting profit margins, and the impending launch of Redwood, stakeholders will be closely watching to see how the electric car giant adapts to this pivotal moment in its journey. The unfolding narrative of Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) in 2024 promises to be a story of resilience, innovation, and strategic decision-making.
Unlocking Tesla's Potentials: A Deep Dive into Elliott WavesTesla's chart remains intriguing, particularly on the two-hour time frame. It's evident that we've experienced a Wave 1 structure after hitting the low at $194. Following that, a Wave A unfolded with a three-wave structure (abc), followed by another B with an overshooting flat pattern (abc). My current belief is that we're still in the process of forming Wave C /Wave (2). This wave should find support between 50% and 78.6%, and anything below could indicate a return to $194. I've placed my stop-loss at 50%, aiming for at least a short-term rise to $300, approximately 34%.
TSLA is 2nd most oversold everThere was a plethora of PUT SELLING on NASDAQ:TSLA yesterday and the sellers must not be happy today. OUCH Most of the contracts were at least 6 months plus so they have time unless #Tesla stock gets put to them.
Weekly shows selling for last few weeks & the downtrend stopping all advances.
(not shown here, pls see profile for more info)
Daily, it's @ 2nd most oversold & the 1st was last year. It was not the norm until last year for Tesla to get this oversold.
NVDA SHORT/PUT OPPORTUNITY Im shorting NVDA here because of the current seasonal anamoly. NVDA was supposed to fall this time of the year usually tracking 20 year historical data and the options chain is skewed to the call side.
PE ratio is insane at these levels
Our Ai forecast tool has turned bearish
Trade Idea : NVDA 640 PUT MARCH EXPIRY SL 640
TSLA Earnings After HoursTSLA reports earnings today after hours. QQQ is pretty overbought, but TSLA has been hammered down lately. Really interested to see what they do. I'm technically long shares, but not getting overly optimistic. Gapping down seems to be the crowded trade at the moment. We'll see after the bell!
Tesla 2023 Review and Outlook2023 Review
In 2023, Tesla delivered over 1.2 million Model Y’s establishing it as the best-selling vehicle globally, regardless of type, signaling a remarkable shift in the automotive landscape. Despite initial skepticism about the viability of electric vehicles (EVs), this success has proven otherwise.
Maintaining a robust free cash flow of $4.4 billion throughout 2023, they strategically directed significant resources towards future growth projects, resulting in record-high capital expenditures and research and development (R&D) expenses. They remain committed to innovation and expansion.
Energy storage deployments soared to 14.7 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2023, more than doubling the previous year's figures. Simultaneously, Energy Generation and Storage business witnessed a nearly fourfold increase in profits. The Services & Other business also experienced a substantial transformation, turning a $500 million loss in 2019 into a $500 million profit by 2023.
In the final quarter, the cost of goods sold per vehicle exhibited a sequential decline, a testament to the company's dedication to enhancing efficiency. Looking ahead to 2024, Tesla’s focus remains on scaling production, investing in future growth, and uncovering additional cost-saving measures.
In a groundbreaking development, December saw the rollout of Version 12 of Full Self-Driving Beta, a system trained on data from a vast fleet of over a million vehicles. This advanced AI-driven system influences various vehicle controls, such as steering wheel, pedals, and indicators, without relying on hard-coded driving behaviors. V12 signifies a significant leap forward in the journey toward achieving full autonomy.
The company’s sights are set on introducing the next generation platform expeditiously, with plans to commence production at Gigafactory Texas. This revolutionary platform is poised to redefine the manufacturing process for vehicles, ushering in a new era of automotive innovation.
Outlook
Volume: The company currently finds itself between two substantial growth phases. The first wave commenced with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform, and they anticipate the next surge to be triggered by the worldwide expansion of the next-generation vehicle platform. In 2024, the growth rate of their vehicle volume may experience a notable decrease compared to 2023, primarily due to the focus of the company on the launch of the next-generation vehicle at Gigafactory Texas. During this period, the growth rate of deployments and revenue in the Energy Storage business will surpass that of the Automotive business they announced
Cash: They maintain ample liquidity to support the product roadmap, long-term capacity expansion plans, and other financial obligations.
Profit: The company persists in implementing innovations to reduce manufacturing and operational costs, while foreseeing a shift in the profit landscape. Over time, they anticipate that profits from hardware-related aspects will be complemented by an acceleration in AI, software, and fleet-based profits.
Product: The ramp-up of Cybertruck production and deliveries is slated to progress steadily throughout the year. Concurrently, they continue to make significant strides in the development of our next-generation platform.
$180 possible by Friday (From Historical data) $TSLABoth Q2 and Q3 2023 earnings reports had negative news for investors, and both had a subsequent drop in their stock value:
Post Q2 earnings report in July: Stock dropped by 12%.
Post Q3 earnings report in October: Stock dropped by 15%
If the stock doesn't hold support at $200, which is currently resistance as of the PM, we may see Tesla hit $190 as the next support tomorrow, following $180 with lower probability if $190 doesn't hold.
SPY SHORT ( UPDATE FROM JAN 24,2024 )**Hello all, Im here to add some insights to the trading view community. I run options and stock programs out of trading view which give intraday bull and bear probabilities and support and resistance levels based on options chain data
Looking at SPY, I see a Support level at 485 and the open interest difference between calls and puts are the highest there ( over 5000 ). Resistance at 487 and 488. Im looking to enter a short now with 490 SL.
Target is sub 480 if bears push it over
Based on my program which does seasonal analysis, SPY is bearish for the next 10 days. Feb month is where the big bear comes seasonally.
Ai forecast also looks bearish. Not a place to go long. We Trade algo is applied on the chart**
We posted the above idea initially on the 24th of january when SPY was close to 489 but the idea got hidden. The short/ put trade we entered at 488 level paid 80% and closed at 485 level.
Watching for another short opportunity. Out of all longs for now
The Share Price of TSLA Sharply DeclinedThe Share Price of TSLA Sharply Declined After the Release of the Report
Following the publication of Tesla's (ticker TSLA) financial results for the fourth quarter of 2023, the company's stock price dropped. The TSLA share price in pre-market trading today is around $195, compared to yesterday's closing price of over $207 (approximately -6%).
Reasons for disappointment:
→ Earnings per share fell short of expectations at $0.71, compared to the Wall Street consensus of $0.73 per share.
→ Quarterly revenue amounted to $25.167 billion, which also fell below the expected $25.640 billion.
→ Additionally, a decrease in profitability was reported, partly attributed to issues with the introduction of the Cybertruck.
→ Tesla also provided a cautious outlook for 2024, warning that the growth rate in car production volumes could be "significantly lower" than in 2023. This is primarily due to the focus on launching the next-generation vehicle at the Gigafactory in Texas.
In October 2023, analysing the TSLA stock chart, it was noted that the price broke below the ascending trend. How does the situation look today?
→ The TSLA price failed to return to the ascending trend (shown in blue) of 2023.
→ The price continues to evolve within the descending trend (shown in red), the contours of which were noticeable as early as October.
After the release of this news, a bearish gap is likely to form at today's opening, and one should be prepared for:
→ Breaking the psychological level of $200 per share – this level may switch its role from support (noticeable in the price action on October 30-31) to resistance.
→ The TSLA share price dropping to the lower half of the descending channel. The median line of this channel will act as resistance.
→ Bears attempting to extend their success to bring the price down to the lower boundary of the channel (around $180).
Investor issues with TSLA stock have been evident for some time, as the price has been noticeably weaker than stock indices reaching peaks in December 2023 - January 2024. If the fundamental backdrop continues to be negative, it is possible that the red descending channel will shape the trajectory of TSLA's price in the first half of 2024.
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Another year to wait for the upTesla looks to release their next gen Vehicle 2nd half 2025 and chart shows good timing for the next upside but sideways until then
Tesla : After the rain comes sunshineTesla had a nice rally from 100 to 300 in an impulsive wave up after an ABC corrective wave from the all time high. Since hitting 300 price has moved down in a corrective wave lower. This move is a wave 2 and could go to 180 ( 76.4% of wave a of 2 + 61.8% retracement of wave 1 ) or even to 150 ( equal legs inside wave 2 + 76.4% retracement of wave 2 ).
Line in the sand for this wave 2 is the 101.81 low, anything below this invalidates this count.
Look for price to move higher in an impulsive wave as wave 3 will start after hitting the wave 2 low. Eventually price will break the trendline from the all time high, move above 300 again and hunt for the all time high.
Alternative count would have price in a wave C instead of wave 3. This would still break 300 but will turn around down before hitting all time highs. This would also mean that price will break the 100 low, or ...more rain ahead...
TSLA Bearish outlook but glimpse of hopeTSLA our love our heart is now confirming a long running bearish trend since it reached 300
TSLA did a fake breakout at 252 levels which then proceeded towards a bearish movement and now we can see it has officially reached 195 levels
Looking at the last 3 RSI oversold touches we can see it was quickly followed up by a bull rally
BULL CASE or glimpse of hope!!!
195 is going to be a double bottom and previous very strong support and RSI reaching the same levels like it was at 195 before i,e 30 OCT 2023 was also after Earnings dump
So if history repeats and we are lucky it can reverse from 195 levels , From 195 upwards there are very strong resistance levels i.e 200, 208 , 218 and 227 . if we reverse then we should enter after bullish reversal confirmation and be happy with small profits :)
BEAR CASE
We continue falling down from 195 levels and then next strong support is at 175 then 150 . AFter 150 its the Dark era of TSLA which I hope doesn't come
Wait and see game on!!!!
$TSLA Double Bottom Day TradeNASDAQ:TSLA Double Bottom Day Trade
The technical analysis reveals the presence of a double bottom pattern in the market. This pattern suggests a potential trend reversal, indicating that after a downtrend, the security or asset has reached a low price twice with a moderate increase in price in between. Traders often consider the double bottom as a bullish signal, anticipating a possible upward movement in the future.
Avoid Tesla-Jan 24 2024This green box is the origin of this rally, which is also a poor Dz, but again, it's the origin, and below it is another support. It is good enough to ruin short sellers' gain .
The End of a Tesla Era! Tesla missed on earnings. Huge decline for this leading EV stock.
Tesla was already getting oversold on the daily chart, & now with this decline its a salavating opportunity for day traders.
I still think the true swing trade level is a bit lower from here. This weekly close will tell us more.
We have included an analysis of the XLY sector (Consumer Discretionary). We discuss 3 signals that have only ever happened over a 25 year period. The weekly Golden Cross.
Often this Weekly Golden cross is bullish long term but historically weak price follows in the short term.
Shaky long-term trading for Tesla (Triple top + dip? )Since Oct. '21, Tesla has been trading along this channel. Some patterns emerge that we can point out:
After hitting the top of the channel three times from Oct. 21 to Apr. 22, it was followed by a dip to the bottom of the channel.
To a lesser degree, rising to about .75 the height of the channel on July 22 and hitting that region 3 times, this was also followed by a dip to the bottom of the channel.
We currently have the same pattern emerging since July '23, with the price of TSLA dipping to below $200. This cycle is interesting because it is bouncing off the midline instead of the bottom of the channel.
The next few days are going to be crucial for the stock:
Bull case: If the stock can consolidate strongly along the $180-200, we may be able to break out of the channel to the upside.
Bear case: If the stock fails to consolidate strongly along the $180-200 range, we may see a dip to $120-160.
This will strongly depend on investor sentiment in the company, which currently isn't looking strong. A lot can happen in the next few weeks to turn that around, such as further advancements of AI for Tesla's autopilot.
