Tesla Motors (TSLA)
TSLA: Pay Close Attention to These Chart Patterns (D & W charts)Today we see an important move in TSLA's share price, a break of the resistance level of its previous top at $252.75.
Now, after the breakout, we see that this area is serving as intraday support, which is in line with the principle of polarity (former supports can become future resistances and vice versa).
Since our last analysis last week, we see that the price has broken through its most important resistances, which we mentioned in our previous analysis, and is committed to a clear uptrend. The link to the latest study is below this post, as always. What’s more, after our analysis, TSLA performed a clear “Hammer” candlestick pattern above its support line, as evidenced on the chart above. According to Bulkowski’s studies, a Hammer acts as a bullish reversal roughly 60% of the time (Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts, chapter 40: Hammer, p. 348).
What's even more interesting is that the price has thwarted a possible reversal pattern called Head and Shoulders, as we can see in detail in the chart below. By not triggering the neckline by closing a candle below $230, and reacting to the point of breaking through the top of the head, TSLA has completely rejected any bearish thesis.
Another important point that reinforces the bullish sentiment is the breaking of an important resistance on the weekly chart, breaking a bearish channel, frustrating the price's downward sequence and triggering a bullish reversal for the long term. As we see in the image below, such a pattern could be interpreted as a Bullish Flag as well.
Now, TSLA shares could reverse the long-term trend and finally turn bullish. Could it follow the example of the Nasdaq index, which made a similar pattern recently, also on the weekly chart?
QQQ chart:
It's a plausible move with a good technical basis, but as always, we need to be aware of a few risk points.
Firstly, if the price loses a lot of strength, to the point of making a bearish pattern on the weekly, closing below the resistance of the bearish channel, the bullish thesis loses strength.
Secondly, if a reversal pattern is observed on the daily, and the price loses its supports, we have a rejection of the uptrend in the medium term. Especially if the 21 EMA is lost. Although the price has breached the average a few times, at no time since November 10 have we seen a close below the 21 EMA on the daily chart. If this happens, the bullish thesis described in the analysis could be thwarted.
I'll keep you updated, so if you like the content, please support me, and follow me to receive more analysis like this, with technically grounded ideas.
Best regards,
Nathan.
TESLA INC | PARALLEL CHANNEL BREAKINGTESLA INC
Tesla has broken its short-term downward parallel channel (highlighted with dotted lines). It has completed its correction and is attempting to revert to its primary bullish trend.
A minor resistance may pose a challenge for Tesla, represented by the falling resistance (double line).
We anticipate an upside movement until 313, which serves as a significant horizontal resistance.
TESLA Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
TESLA looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 253.23 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 245.32
About Used Indicators:
The average true range ATR plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TSLA's Fight the Falling Resistance 🧠 Rejection or BreakoutDear Esteemed Members,
TSLA is mostly bearish within the resistance of the red triangle. As long as it remains below the trendline, bears can enjoy better risk-reward ratios. Some traders wait out the price's rejection at the falling line to open their short positions. Others wait for a confirmed breakout through the resistance to open a long position. Now, both sides have a significant chance because the pattern is usually bearish, but TSLA reclaimed the EMAs in a convincing manner. I've got a short, but I opened it above the resistance. So, I can close it in profit at the resistance. I wouldn't open a new short until I see the price action around the trendline. The white arrows mark the scenarios I mentioned. I also placed two positions on the chart that one could make depending on TSLA's behavior around the falling level.
Disclaimer:
It's not an investment advice. My analytics serve only entertainment purposes. Do your research. Historic results don't guarantee future outcomes.
Kind regards,
Ely
News Analytics Align with Technicals' Slight Bearish Momentum ☄️Dear Investors,
Chart Explanation
I believe if Tesla doesn't break out from the bearish triangle, it could downtrend to $225. This is the target price of multiple scenarios. The stock is volatile enough to fall to this price without additional confirmation. However, if the price meets the resistance trendline I marked with red, it can still spiral into the mentioned target zone. The chart shows how this resistance indeed rejected rallies many times over the previous months. I drew red arrows where I believe the resistance rejected the price. If the price breaks up this resistance, bullish scenarios will become more probable and Tesla will prepare for the moon. At the moment, however, the number of bearish scenarios suggests a better risk-reward ratio for shorts with losing the EMAs today. I've got a short myself from $251, and I'd consider increasing this position size if I see another rejection near the resistance. On the other hand, a breakup of the resistance would mean taking profits from these positions and preparing for a long setup. The $225 target aligns with multiple historical gaps that the stock is yet to fulfill. From that level, it can either break down or reverse up. There are possible targets on both sides. So, I think, it's important to monitor news and technicals alike. In this idea, I'd like to give you some news trading insights and how I see the technical indicators.
News Trading - Natural Language Processing
☄️ Tesla's production and delivery growth has slowed in recent quarters. The company's production growth slowed to 54% in the fourth quarter of 2022, from 119% in the third quarter. Deliveries also slowed to 936,000 in the fourth quarter, from 1.39 million in the third quarter. This slowdown could be a sign that Tesla is facing production bottlenecks or supply chain disruptions.
☄️ Tesla's gross margin has declined. The company's gross margin was 27.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022, down from 30.6% in the third quarter. This decline could be a sign that Tesla is facing higher costs or that it is discounting its cars more heavily to boost sales.
☄️ Tesla's stock price has been volatile in recent months. The stock price has fallen by more than 40% from its all-time high in November 2021. This volatility could be a sign that investors are uncertain about Tesla's future.
☄️ There are concerns about Tesla's ability to scale production efficiently. The company has ambitious plans to produce 20 million vehicles per year by 2030, but analysts have questioned whether Tesla can achieve this goal without facing significant production bottlenecks.
☄️ Tesla's competitive landscape is becoming more crowded. The electric vehicle market is becoming increasingly crowded, with new entrants from established automakers and startups alike. This could put pressure on Tesla's market share and pricing power.
Technical Indicators
MACD has been bearish since 29 November as the bottom indicator shows. The bearish momentum isn't too strong, but it's been consistent over the last week. On the RSI, above the MACD indicator, I can see a bullish RSI cross attempt, but this cross failed and became a bearish indication. The volume bars have been somewhat stable over this time, which might not enforce a strong bearish momentum, but it shows a lack of volume necessary for reversal.
Disclaimer
It's not an investment advice. Do your research. Your funds are your responsibility. This speculation serves only entertainment purposes.
Kind regards,
Ely
Will Tesla test 300 again soon?There has been a very good year for Tesla with the stock starting the year at 100 and reaching a high of 300 in summer.
A correction followed, but even if the ascending trend line was broken with a gap in October, Tesla found a very strong floor in the 200 region and rebounded, giving us a very nice bullish chart for the year.
Technically, the drop from 300 is clearly corrective in nature, and with the stock consolidating between 230 and 250 for 3 weeks now, we can expect a break to the upside.
This consolidation break will also coincide with a break of the falling trend line and, in such an instance, we can expect acceleration to the upside.
The most obvious target for bulls is the 300 figure and technical resistance and, considering a stop loss under consolidation's support we can achieve a more than 1:2 risk: reward.
$TSLA MMBM; weekly looks ready to sweep 270 and 300 by eoy. NFASTDVs and HTF levels are pointing towards a move higher, especially with bullish indices. This name can see $270 and $300 very soon. I have another video on the same name on my account from $230 doing top-down analysis from weekly to H4. Volatile name and offers nice enteries, watch for daily and H4 FVGs and OBs.
TESLA Major bullish break-out above July's Lower Highs.Tesla (TSLA) broke today for the first time and even closed the 1D candle above the Lower Highs that started on the July 19 High. After 4 months of the bearish trend of this Falling Wedge pattern, today's move is a major bullish break-out for the long term as it opens the way for testing the All Time High (ATH) by mid 2024.
At the same time, the 1D CCI broke above its Lower Highs trend-line, which is always a bullish signal. Also this is the 2nd time that the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is tested, which is where both of the previous Lower Highs rejections took place.
On the short-term though we can follow the (dotted) Channel Up extension which after holding the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as the Support zone, can technically peak on a +19.80% rise, like the first bullish leg. That falls within the Resistance 1 - Resistance 2 zone. We will pursue the more modest target of 268.85 (Resistance 1). If the price then breaks above Resistance 2 (279.00), we will re-buy and target 299.50 (Resistance 3).
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TESLAPair : TESLA Index
Description :
Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame and Bullish Channel as an Correction in Short Time Frame with the Breakout of the Lower Trend Line and Retracement. It has Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " A - wxy " Corrective Waves
Entry Precaution :
Wait for the Proper Rejection
$OSK Breaking Out of Flag Formation?NYSE:OSK Here is another play on electrified specialty vehicles. Check out their website www.oshkoshcorp.com Pretty cool stuff.
I have been watching this one for a good entry since earnings on Oct 23rd. I missed the pullback breakout on Nov 13th, but it has pulled back again and looks to be breaking back above that pullback. I have started ¼ sized position and I will place my stop just below today’s low of day. I do not expect this to be barn burner but a 10% to 20% gain over the next 2 months seems reasonable. I think it can get back to the double top highs from September. All TBD.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
Tesla Unveils Its 2nd-Generation Optimus Robot 🤖
In the released video, the robot demonstrates capabilities such as controlled squatting, delicate egg transfer, and dancing. However, in the context of today's technological advancements, Optimus Gen 2 doesn't appear to boast any standout features.
The latest iteration of the robot is 10 kg lighter, 30% faster, a lot smoother, and equipped with tactile sensing on all fingers.
NASDAQ:TSLA may experience a surge as investors anticipate the potential impact of the new product on Tesla's revenue and market position.
Tesla is often seen as a company at the forefront of technological innovation. Successful product launches reinforce investor confidence in the company's ability to lead in multiple industries. A positive reception of the Optimus robot could contribute to increased investor confidence.
5 Waves Up , Diagonal Pattern?Hello!
I am a big fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find very interesting and useful for market analysis. I have developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that could occur in the market.
While I would like to share my analysis with you, please note that I am not providing a buy or sell signal. My primary intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can utilize it as a guide to make an informed decision.
To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand.
I hope that my analysis is useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
I am looking forward to hearing from you. Lastly, I would like to mention that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, just like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you.
Sincerely,
TSLA: An Intense Breakout is About to Occur!TSLA shares are trading in a Trap Zone, the area between the 21 EMA, which serves as the main support, and the resistance at $246.70, which was already mentioned in my last public analysis, the link to which is below this post.
This area between the 21 EMA and resistance is called the Trap Zone because as long as there is no real breakout from support or resistance, we could see several false signals and erratic, meaningless movement within the area.
The 21 EMA is slowly rising, squeezing the price against resistance at $246, and sooner or later, we will see a breakout in some direction. There's no way of knowing in which direction the breakout will occur - remember real trading is reactive, not predictive. In some cases it is possible to look for clues in an indicator such as the RSI, and look for a divergence or an Advanced Breakout (which is not the case here).
Since our last study, the price has retested the $246 area, reinforcing our main idea that this is indeed the main resistance for TSLA shares in the medium term. Only if the price breaks through this region will we see a real sign of recovery, which would represent a continuation of the upward trend.
Meanwhile, we see that the price is trading dangerously close to the 21 EMA. If the average is lost, then TSLA could trigger a new bearish move, perhaps looking to fill the gap opened at $225.40. Such a bearish move seen today is definitely suspicious, while the indices and almost all of the "magnificent 7" are rising. I wonder how long such a divergence between TSLA and the rest of the market will persist.
TSLA shares are falling this week, just as we approach the main long-term resistance at the top of its Descending Channel. The 21 EMA is also serving as support on this timeframe, which also reinforces our thesis that this area is a key support point, which could trigger a sharper correction if lost.
For the time being, as long as there is no clear break from its Trap Zone, TSLA's shares are bound to move erratically. To avoid a bearish scenario, now would be the best time to see a reaction. How the price behaves over the next few days will be crucial to what lies ahead in the medium and long term.
I'll keep you updated on this, so remember to like this post, and follow me for more analysis like this.
Best regards,
Nathan.
TESLA: Optimism, Challenges, and the Road AheadTESLA: Optimism, Challenges, and the Road Ahead
Tesla, the electric vehicle giant, has garnered attention for its extraordinary 10-year return of 2,560%, making it a standout investment. Despite a notable 98% surge this year, surpassing the broader market, Tesla's shares currently trade at a substantial 41% below their peak of $410 in November 2021. With optimistic investors eyeing a $500 target, envisioning over a 100% gain from the current price, achieving this milestone by 2024 is a possibility, but certain challenges must be navigated.
Factors Influencing Tesla's Trajectory:
Tesla's historic success forms the backdrop for investor optimism, but realizing the $500 target necessitates specific factors. Key among them is a renewed focus on fundamental improvements, crucial for the long-term performance of the stock. Tesla's robust growth has historically been the driving force, positioning the company as a global leader in the electric vehicle movement.
However, a noticeable slowdown in 2023 raises concerns. In the recent quarter (Q3 2023), Tesla's revenue increased by a modest 9%, a departure from the double-digit growth the company has been known for. Elon Musk attributes this to challenges in the macroeconomic environment, including diminished affordability and consumer uncertainty, especially concerning significant purchases.
Challenges in Revenue Growth and Profitability:
To sustain upward momentum, Tesla must address challenges in revenue growth and profitability. Fierce competition and continuous price reductions to preserve market share have impacted profitability significantly. In Q3, Tesla reported an operating margin of 7.6%, a substantial decline from the 17.2% recorded a year ago. Substantial improvements in margins will be pivotal for sustained stock performance in 2024.
Valuation Considerations:
Beyond revenue and earnings growth, Tesla's valuation is a critical consideration. Currently, the stock carries a substantial price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 78, largely fueled by a 105% increase in the P/E multiple this year. While some argue this valuation is justified, growing investor enthusiasm poses challenges for prospective shareholders seeking significant returns.
Tempering Expectations:
Assuming Tesla's valuation will continue to rise may be overly optimistic, especially in an unpredictable market environment with higher interest rates and inflation. To reach $500 by the end of next year, Tesla would need outstanding financial results, including a doubling of earnings per share between 2023 and 2024. However, recent trends suggest this bullish scenario may face challenges, urging investors to temper their expectations and carefully assess the evolving landscape for Tesla.
Tesla's journey to $500 by 2024 is marked by both optimism and challenges. While the company's historic success forms a solid foundation, addressing concerns in revenue growth, profitability, and managing valuation expectations will be crucial. Investors are advised to approach this potential milestone with a balanced perspective, considering the evolving market dynamics and the need for sustained fundamental performance in the coming year.