Tslaanalysis
Tesla Fundamental, Technical and IdeasTSLA—Tesla Fundamental and Price Chart Analysis ( Concluding and comparing historical financial health, stability, growth and value of company to current and future projections to help make investment decisions. )
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TSLA Fundamental Analysis
Income Statement
- Income, Earnings and profit margin for Tesla all increased over past 5 years
- Tesla reported higher than forecast earnings for company for the past 4 quarters
Balance Sheet
- Increasing Assets and liabilities with a shrinking Debt-Asset Ratio
Cash Flow ( Value of the Company is ALWAYS a reflection of FREE CASH FLOW )
- 2018-2019 Tesla free cash flow growth risen by 442.2%.
- 2019-2021 Telsa free cash flow growth is still increasing but by smaller percentages. Since 2019
Tesla free cash flow growth decreased by -455.04%.
- Trailing Twelve Month free cash flow for TSLA is nearly 70% higher than free cash flow ending year 2021.
Source: tradingview.com
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TSLA Price Chart Analysis
Tesla decreased more than 50% in value since November 4, 2021 bringing the value of the company near 52 weeks low between 790.00 - 640.00 on Daily timeframe. Largest movements to downside are near Company Earning Announcements ( though Tesla has reported higher than expected earnings for 4 consecutive quarters, the growth rate between the both has been declining.
*Tesla is expected to announce lower than previously forecasted and actual earnings ( @ 1.81/per share ) and
revenue ( @ 16.5 billion ) report today July 20, 2022 during after market hours.*
Sub-chart indicators demonstrates indecision in direction of price with 750.00 being close to the highest price investors are currently willing to pay for stock. Near 790.00 is assumed to be safest and most profitable position to enter a short term sell entry.
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Sentiment for TSLA:
-Short Term Bearish
- Mid Term Bullish
Entry and Exit Levels for TSLA:
-Short Term SELL - up to 2.5 months Holding period )
- Limit 790.00
- Stop Loss 900.00
- Take Profits 400.00
- Reward-Risk 3.50/1.00
Mid Term BUY - up to 5 month Holding period )
- Limit 500.00
- Stop Loss 400.00
- Take Profits 1000.00
- Reward-Risk 5.00/1.00
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TSLA Long Term Strategy TSLA 1W Chart
-If the same triangle pattern occurs and we can see 1300-1400 in long term (Q2 2023 and later)
-As we all know recession is on the table and if FED increase rates more than expected we can find TSLA less than 500 by the end of the year.
Technical Datas
-Short term accumulation zone --> 590 - 656
-Long term Pivot --> 656 (If we see weekly candles're closed below this, we can try short, target 450)
-Support 1: 656
-Support 2: 590
-Support 3: 518
-Resistance 1: 755
-Resistance 2: 795
-Resistance 3: 966 (If we see weekly candles're closed above this level, we can expect new ATH)
TSLA idea The Tesla arrow is moving in the form of a descending corrective channel and reached the golden area of the big bullish wave and touched the bottom of the channel, in addition to the matching of the two Fibonacci levels with strong areas
Strong buying opportunity on the stock
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Tesla loses billions With US stocks officially entering the bear market recently and with concerns that the next recession is upon us, companies are walking another tightrope.
Consumer goods companies including big multinational brands have employed various measures to protect their profit margins and cushion the impact of skyrocketing inflation and weakening consumption. Even household name brands have not been spared from these factors.
Tesla loses billions
Silicon Valley-based car giant Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which many consider as a tech company rather than a carmaker, recently acknowledged that it is losing “billions of dollars” from the global battery shortage and supply chain disruptions in China.
Tesla operates a ‘gigafactory’ in Shanghai, which was shuttered for weeks due to the COVID-19 lockdown in the city.
Aside from the disruptions caused by the lockdown, Tesla is also facing challenges in procuring batteries to power its cars. The company recently hiked the prices of its China-made Model Y due to the higher costs of the raw materials included in batteries.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk also revealed that the company’s newest car factories in Texas and Berlin are losing money “because there’s a ton of expense and hardly any output.”
“Getting Berlin and Austin functional and getting Shanghai back in the saddle fully are overwhelmingly our concerns. Everything else is a very small thing basically,” Musk said.
Tesla investors appear to have taken the news in their stride, with TSLA stock price hugging close to US $700 per share, and the Chaikin Volatility Index not indicating any abnormal change in daily price ranges.
TSLA weekend reviewHere is the same chart from last weekend as a reveiw. See how the predicted Orange oval area played out & $TSLA challenged both the current down channel (White) as well as the one from NOV (Blue lines)?
We played calls on $TSLA on Tues & Wed for nice gains, and remained flat on the stock for the remainder of the week. I will work up a new analysis for next week on TSLA as soon as the Volatility Range Algo is finished computing
TSLA Analysis & the Decision Point$TSLA held the support line from the JAN channel 2 weeks ago (Yellow Dotted Lines), but failed to break over the 792 level last Thursday & dropped back into the Current & NOV Channels on Friday. This paces TSLA back into 2 bearish channels across multiple timeframes. Friday's action did fill the opening gap and is currently holding the March lows right at the 700 level. Anticipate TSLA hitting horizontal targets at 725 / 757 / 792 before it climbs out of the cellar...but is very likely once it can clear the WHITE & BLUE downward Channels. The ORANGE CIRCLE should play out this week, so TRADE SMART!!!
TSLA is going to 500! (maybe. this is how it might get there) I believe Tesla will retrace to hit the anchored VWAP from '20 low, as well as the 618 fib from the same low, and these also align with a massive support trendline off of the log chart going way back. The timing of the current rally, Fed meetings and Tesla earnings are taken into consideration. Curious to see how this plays out, feel like this will be the last block to take a hit like this but as much as I respect the stock, it's hard to see it sliding through without that final major drawdown and what better way than a four-touch culminating in a double top?
TESLA SETUP and BREAKOUT ATTEMPT Part 1There is a wolfe wave setup on the 4 hour time frame. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line. This is represented as the green perforated line, as shown in the chart. The projected target using this 4 hour period is greater than 900 which is expected to reach this price target before Aug 2022. This particular pattern allows us to position long term contracts at specific time periods. Short term target is $800 which is a level where profit taking will occur. Any pullback should be bought especially premarket gap down.
TSLA Bttom Support we dipped below the strongest support the 700$, however we close 1D candle over the 700$, that show us the strength of that support , if we want to make this our bottom , we need to hold above the 700$ and test again the current RS around the 833$, cause if we have 1D candle below 700$ SP , we will see a new support test above the 550$.
and still the 947$ is the bullish confirmation for TSLA if we close 1D candle above and hold .
Tesla: Short term bounce? Tesla
Short Term - We look to Buy at 701.22 (stop at 660.02)
We look to buy dips. We have a 78.6% Fibonacci pullback level of 539.49 from 1243.49 to 690.15. A higher correction is expected. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 809.77 and 910.20
Resistance: 900.00 / 1000.00 / 1240.00
Support: 700.00 / 600.00 / 540.00
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@SupportTesla currently at support holding above 980
If able to hold above support at 980 next target for Tesla 1040
If price breaks below support at 980 next target to the downside at 951.65 and 886
Currently holding above Support yet showing signs of buyer weakness expected to break to the downside keep your eyes on this level.
US STOCKS should fall especially tech stocksUs markets
I am a 14-year-old demo trader in England don’t take this as finical advise I am still doing my gcses get a guru or professional to tell you what to.
Market preview
Going into this trading week stocks should continue to fall during this bear market and talks of a recession increase as the possibility of the fed being able to perform a soft landing because of their aggressive strategy to combat inflation. The phrase ‘melt up’ was used by CNN to show that stocks may soar before the inventible crash. This could occur because of investors believe that the strong us economy will prevail causing stocks to soar in price creating FOMO and a trend reversal is occurring. But because of basic market fundamentals such as high inflation a slowing economy and high energy costs caused by the Ukrainian Russian war will continue to fuel this bear market. Another reason why this bear market is here to stay is because of an inverted yield curve which Is where short term debt pays out more than long term suggests a bear market is here to stay even though it is an argued point that an inverted yield curve means a recession it does still resemble tough time for markets. Over the next two years, stocks have a high chance of having a melt-up. But Goldman Sachs still believes there is a 35 % chance of a recession.
Stocks and predictions what I think (DYR)
• NVDA (short)
• TWTR(long)
• AAPL(short)
• AMD(short)
• TSLA(neutral)
Us tech stocks have suffered recently with the Nasdaq dropping 4.19% in the last month with stocks such as NVDA dropping 23.87% in the last month and AAPL dropping 4.95% in the last month suggesting a strong bear market for tech stocks which shows us high growth stocks such as NVDA have been deeply affected because of rising interest rates and investor not willing to risk large amounts during this current market turbulence. Going into this week stocks should continue to drop especially high-growth stocks. The semiconductor producer NVDA will be very interesting to see because it is a high growth stock hitting its all-time highest at 329.85 in November 2021. NVDA gained over 121.1% in 2020 when gaming interest spiked during lockdown which is NVDAs main source of revenue. This tells us that even during bear markets the stock can be resilient so it must bear for another reason that it has lost over 33.85% this YTD. there are many reasons of why the stock could have fallen from monetary policy tightening, the fed aggressive strategy to target inflation, and fears of recession. But I believe it is because of soaring energy prices which I mentioned in my last idea. Energy costs can account for 20% to 30% of semiconductor producer’s energy costs. Energy prices have risen more than 250% since January, according to industry group Oil & Gas UK affecting NVDA’s earnings deeply.
TSLA currently is in a very weird position its earnings where though the roof with a 87% rise in revenues which blew the stock up to around the 1070-1080 levels which was last trader around early April. that shows us that the stock has respected the current bear market decreasing 4.9% YTD but has risen 6.48% in the last 3 months so it is a very volatile stock that will be perfect for traders with larger accounts to trade. But I would never open a short on TSLA always seems too dangerous for me its such a good stock any with Elon Musk being able to control the stock just by making tweet always seems bad to me. TSLA does seem to be in a down trend trading below the 200 MA and 50 MA.
Between a rock and a hard place, Elon Musk is trying to perform an LBO on TWTR as the management crew has deployed a poison pill to try to combat the unwanted takeover it could mean if Elon's takeover is rejected it could lead for him to sell his 9% stake in the company causing the stock price to fall. this uncertainty for TWTR could lead other investors into selling the stock. TWTRs competition with TikTok gaining in popularity and with cheaper ad prices with better exposure could mean less demand for TWTR ads which is their main source of revenue which could affect their earnings which is in 4 days’ time. even though the stock does have strong price momentum the company’s fundamental aspects aren’t as strong as its competitors. TWTR has a bullish chart pattern and other technical aspects which should lead to a increase in price .Even though the stock has had a recent rally it should still respect the current bear market in the longer term. over the next 5 trading days, I believe TWTR will rise but still fluctuate between the 55-45 price range even though fundamental aspects disagree. To conclude twitter is a very uncertain stock it all depends on if Elon’s takeover is successful. Elon himself said he’s “not sure” if the bid will be taken by the board. But he apparently has a plan b. if worst comes to worst and he sells his 9.2% stake in TWTR the stock will crumble. But he does seem passionate about making Twitter a private company.
AAPL should continue to fall as on Wednesday the death cross occurred where the 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day moving average as well as the fears of a recession coming which will cut consumer spending which will cause cuts in AAPLs revenues. Which will dampen AAPLs earnings which is in 4 days which is expected to be worse than last quarter which will cause investors to sell decreasing the share price. Technical aspects are giving strong sell signals. MAs are giving off strong sell signals as well as the MACD giving sell signals
To conclude US stocks will continue to fall as fears of a recession is coming with the fed trying to perform a soft landing that has never been done before. An inverted yield curve and rising interest rates and US ten-year bond yields rising all fuel this current bear market where stocks are suffering. Over the next 5 trading days, stocks will continue to fall with a chance of a rally being possible because of people ‘buying the dip’. This is not financial advice don’t be dumb.