Tslaanalysis
$TSLA - MOMENT OF TRUTH! Bullish pattern forming$TSLA is in a moment of truth here. #TSLA formed a bullish pennant after hitting all time highs. Pennants are considered continuation patterns (in this case a continuation of the violent uptrend). The volume is also declining in typical fashion during these types of continuation patterns. The Stoch RSI is oversold which TSLA responds well to on the 1D chart.
The yellow arrows are when TSLA reported delivery numbers too. These have typically been the launch point to new breakouts. If TSLA can break out of the pennant, the expected mid term move is towards $616 where the 1.272 Fib extension is. This would also coincide with its inclusion in the S&P 500 at the end of the year or the beginning of 2021.
Bullish pennants aren't a guaranteed bullish continuation though. They break to the upside a little more than half the time so prudent traders will want to watch for the breakout first.
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Tesla bullish patterns + ideas
Three major bullish indicators:
- Purple: Descending triangle
- Orange: Ascending triangle (was my most prominent idea until it broke below)
- Blue: symmetric triangle
My predictions:
(1) Once Tesla passes the apex of the symmetric triangle I can see support begging to form, climbing up the blue support line, following this I am looking for a breakout above the orange resistance line.
(2) Alternatively, Tesla can be exhausted as seen on the MACD, lower volume levels, and volatile charts (longer candles on the 1D chart), following this idea Tesla must break below the purple support level and then slowly climb down the old blue resistance line. The thick red line will act as heavy support, if this level is broken we might be witnessing a triple top and shoulders formation (variation of head and shoulders).
Price targets (3-4 month):
under scenario (1): $536
under scenario (2): $285
Notes:
This week is very crucial for price action and TA, I believe the apex of the symmetric triangle is the most critical point. I am bullish and believe scenario 1 is the most possible. I also believe we will see further price volatility which might cause a fake breakout either above the orange resistance or below the purple support.
I will update this chart throughout the week!
Should we buy TSLA ? Where is it headed ?@HTEEZY, @Nathan_Black,
Hi Guys
This is my TSLA Full analysis
500$ is all time high - this is a very strong resistance.
52 week high, 10 year high, all time high all are STRONG resistance.
If you closely analyse TSLA it hasn't broken that for the last 2 months.
Besides 52 week low was around 60$
Stock has gone up 10X and has gone for a split.
TSLA might not go 10X in the next year from this price point. Highly unlikely.
Still the technical indicate it has juice upside as the trend line is upwards - Higher lows every time.
When a stock keeps coming back to a the same price many times it's a sign of weakness, when it tries to break a resistance many times it's a strength.
TSLA has not gone anywhere near it's old peak.
When you use price predictions always sell a few % below your target prices as this is a more realistic exit.
Good luck !
P.S:
If your looking to make 10X you need to look at alternatives.
e.g Google- has a subsidiary called WAYMO. They own it 100 %, this self driving tech company will be spun off soon.
Each share holder gets a free stock of WAYMO when it sins off GOOGLE .
TSLA anticipated move to $540 then $600? Medium termTSLA has been the center of attention for the bulls and volatility for quite some time and it is forming a very interesting pattern that I cannot ignore.
There are die hard TSLA fans there that believe in the company, there no real reason not to, and there are swing traders that love swinging it because it moves. It is due for a volatile move once again, should we break resistance we'll see a pop that could take up through the high once again.
The technicals are building up for it, higher lows, EV potentially, a strong bull market its all coming together, just volume needs to come on board to the upside.
We need to see a drastic increase in volume as we break the $460 threshold for the next leg higher. With the S&P 500 potentially hitting 3,600 and the Nasdaq futures led by tech about to make a new high. It just seems likely that TSLA is about to make a leg up pop that we've been waiting for.
The targets to the upside are based on Fib extension lines and the volatility that TSLA is associated with could bring us there no problem. The prior TSLA idea we had, the market was forming a symmetrical triangle that could have sprung either way, the more recent price action is expecting a pop higher!
this idea is for educational purposes only, any trade or investment is taken and the traders personal risk.
TSLA under pressure from rise of EV! Coiling for a break. UorD? The EV space is growing really fast! With TSLA at the helm so far it's seniority is not being questioned as the stock price stays very much afloat.
Tesla so far is the leader and holds true to its product on the streets and continued delivery of cars.
However, there are some car makers in the industry that are making a push like Chinas NIO. TSLA has been feeling the pressure from the incoming new "EV" space like SPI. We will have to see a physical product for those companies and the ones to come to be a real threat. Otherwise, it's just like the DotCom boom. Throw EV in your company and the stock price rises 1000%.
Due to that TSLA has been coiling. We saw a recent lower higher that suggests some of these bears are coming into this market for a slight push lower. We are coming into that same area and if we print yet another lower high we are going to see some downside pressure come into this market. The key support is at $335-340 should that support break we are going to see $280 on TSLA fairly quickly. Some of the downsides could be attributed to the recent market and economic downside as well.
To the upside for the TSLA bulls and the optimistic traders, we are also seeing higher lows. The volume is a little weaker on the upside but the bull side can easily break a new high and TSLA could be headed for the $500 level yet again. It's just a matter of buy pressure.
The downside target would be the 100-day moving average which could be around $300 should the price consolidate. Under that level should the market spill TSLA's volatility will cause the stock to plunge.
Tesla bulls and bears will battle on battery day.Tesla, where anything goes and volatility is crazy.
Battery day will be an interesting battle ground.
A key bounce of the 50 day moving average has kept hope alive for tesla bulls.
The massive sell off could spark a snowball sell off into the a.m., on the other hand the sell off landed at a key support level.
This keeps it in a bullish overall trend, but it is at a critical level where a move to a certain direction could set the tone for the rest of the month possibly into November.
Bears have had some fun recently, but theres no reason to believe investors give up on tesla after hearing some big news. The end of day sell off could be perfect for the bull case that this runs, because the selloff due to Elons tweet could have baked the underwhelming news into the price at close, as it rebounded slightly after hours.
Battery day will be a test on its own.
1 metric used in this chart is the RSI stretch. If you look, you can see patterns and dates noted where the Rsi runs " hot" for multiple days.
$TSLA Short wave 3 From a broad perspective, $TSLA has just completed its corrective abc pattern wave 2 from it's initial wave 1 impulse drop. At the end of the trading day Friday 9/18 the market is looking like a sell-off. If Tesla follows suit with a gap down on Monday, we could be in the Cycle wave three and expect another impulse wave down below the initial wave 1. I am targeting below $325 for wave 3. This will happen fast. My theory would be invalidated if we break above $460.
This wave 2 that just ended looked like a major rally so expect something similar, though more flat for Wave 4. Ultimate wave 5 target could reach sub $200 or $195. Good Luck.
The imminent TSLA Implosion - Beware Monolithic Financial NewsOne of the biggest red flags when it comes to investing is a monolithic/singular message reverberated ad nauseum throughout the financial news media. Lately, everything about Tesla has been nothing but positive with almost no analysts commenting on the 800-lb gorilla in the room. Just months ago, Musk was threatening to move production out of California due to what he referred to as 'fascist' government orders to shelter in place - shutting down Tesla's largest production facilities for both its vehicles in the bay area and its battery production in Nevada. Those production stoppages from March to May are going to severely impact Tesla's Q3 financials and is likely a HUGE reason behind Tesla both being rejected by the S&P 500 AND Tesla raising $5B in cash from common stock sales - diluting its shares by more than 1%.
Now the hype is all around 'Battery Day', with Musk himself hyping it just yesterday on Twitter saying it's going to be exciting. Everyone already knows about the million mile battery, so while it's interesting tech, it's not something that isn't already priced into the stock and what's more, it's provided by a source outside Tesla through their chinese partner, Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd. - so despite it being good news for EVs everywhere - VW can buy the same 'million mile battery' that's going into the future Teslas.
Just last year, TSLA was struggling to keep up with demand - so much so that Tesla had to walk back from earlier statements that it's gigafactory would be putting out 3,000 model Y's a week by 6 months. Now, the fallout from COVID-19 is coming home to roost. Tesla produced 110k cars in Q1, 82k cars in Q2. In 2019, Q2, Q3, & Q4 churned out 87k, 97k, and 105k respectively. With the massive amount of debt Tesla has taken on to build new gigaFactories in China and Germany - they can't afford to be shut down. This was confirmed by musk in a tweet after he told employees that every unit that produced was incredibly important. It was also confirmed by Musks actions to force workers to return to work or forfeit unemployment benefits defying the Shelter in Place order. More than 130 confirmed cases of COVID-19 would pop up at Tesla and another 20 at their suppliers. Adding to production troubles, many Tesla clients cited quality issues with new deliveries - a clear sign of an overstressed, undermanned workforce.
Expect TSLA to try to fill the gap left by last week's S&P snub of 15% in premarket trading this morning. I think it's almost inevitable that shortly thereafter, many of the big inst's will sell off their shares into retail traders waiting arms who are all excited about battery day. TSLA will see a big correction before Battery Day as news of the inevitably bad financial news and Q3 deliveries start to circulate.
Perhaps the most telling sign of coming fundamental troubles for TSLA is the company's decision to combine it's shareholder meeting with it's Battery Day pep rally. While everyone is OOO'ing and AWWW'ing the million mile battery, TSLA will also be discussing the substantial losses the company took from the COVID-19 pandemic and increasing competition in the marketplace.
The fact that TSLA is overvalued is no longer relevant to the argument - despite being completely true. Tesla's cash on hand is the real issue. The real value of TSLA was just revealed by the most recent common stock offering the company used to raise $5B if you were smart enough to see it.
The shares that TSLA sold diluted the market cap by roughly 1.2%, and the market handed TSLA a 35% stock price drop because of it. An over-reaction? Perhaps, but with a price to book ratio of 32.39, while the average auto & truck manufacturer price to book ratio is a paltry 1.9 - and that INCLUDES Tesla. Clearly, if we removed tsla from that average, we would be looking at something closer to 1 (note: anything less than 1 is considered good by value investor standards, and anything less than 3 is preferred). 32.39 to 1 and 35 to 1.2 are practically identical ratios. If a 1% dilution causes this type of sell off, there's no better indication that the stock is incredibly overpriced.
To avert a flash crash due to the abysmal numbers we're expecting during the shareholder meeting, Elon is going to be doing the song and dance for battery day on the 22nd. I'm a big fan of Tesla, and have made most of my trading income by buying long calls on TSLA. At least for the short term, TSLA is about to turn into a pumpkin. They'll no doubt rebound, but I don't think we'll ever see a 2500 stock price again - or anything near it. TSLA is the #1 market cap right now for 2 reasons: they were first in the EV market and their autopilot tech is super cool and a competitive advantage that other manufacturers will have a tough time emulating. However, both of those strengths have temporary ramifications - nobody thinks about whether ford or gm was first to market and it's just a matter of time before every other car manufacturer has some type of autopilot feature. But the infrastructure to build up production capacity to the levels of the Big 3 takes decades - and that's time that Tesla unfortunately just doesn't have.
Summary:
*BEWARE THE BULL TRAP set by an elevated premarket price.
*TSLA is estimated to be ~40k units behind production forecasts. This will decimate financials as one of their largest costs - labor - saw no downturn despite the pandemic.
*Battery Day was combined with the shareholder's meeting to distract from what will undoubtedly be horrific financials because of COVID-19
*There has been a severe divergence between volume and price - which indicates a high probability of trend reversal
*There's evidence of big institutions selling off their positions by block sizes, erratic price action, and low liquidity based on the bid/ask gaps.
*TSLA's stock has been on a tear, but reality will set in fairly soon. The shareholder meeting will reveal the cash position of the company - which is likely to be terrifying to many investors and reveal the company's reason for the recent $5B stock offering and S&P rejection. The company will likely only have a few months of reserves at best.
*Tesla will undoubtedly survive the coming big drop, but getting back to profitable on a consistent quarterly basis is going to take time. However, we likely saw the top of TSLA's stock price over the last few weeks. Expect some more big steps down in the week to come and around Q3 earnings as well.
*RSI shows the stock is severely overbought on the daily, and every time TSLA has run into this high a level on RSI, the following day was almost always negative or at best, flat.
TSLA: Post Split Update Further to the earlier idea shared before the splitting of this stock, here's an updated version of the chart showing the same levels but adjusted for the split. The structure of this market suggests a completed 3-wave impulse sequence, which is now being corrected by profit-taking and short selling. The current correctional formation is seemingly completing the A leg of a potential ABC correction. Approximate movement and supply and demand areas are highlighted for convenience. In case of suggestions or questions on this TA idea, drop a line in the comments section below. Staying tuned for further hints on the price direction of this exceptional stock.
Tesla’s 2020 Annual Meeting of Stockholders September 22, 2020Tesla’s 2020 Annual Meeting of Stockholders will be held on Tuesday, September 22, 2020, at 1:30 PM Pacific Time. Immediately following the conclusion of the 2020 Annual Meeting, we will hold our separate Battery Day event. we are now approaching to witness another Elon Musk’s other exciting invention — Tesla’s upcoming Battery Day, which has now been scheduled for September 22. As the name suggests, “Battery Day” would revolve around Tesla’s latest work on significant advancements of battery technology. As a matter of fact, Tesla has been under a lot of pressure from its investors for various reasons, and thus with this event, it would be able to share something substantial and groundbreaking for its shareholders.
Mid last year, Tesla had acquired the battery technology of Maxwell for leveraging its dry electrode technology as well as to produce its own battery cells. This, in turn, has helped the company’s concept of building lithium-ion batteries. Tesla has been working on enhancing the battery technology for several years, and that has put the company way ahead of its rivals. After being postponed many a time, with this event, Tesla is expected to reveal advancements in its new battery technology as well as showcase its latest innovations with cell production.
The company has been strongly focusing on expanding their market with a cost-efficient electric vehicle (EV), which makes the concept of battery extremely significant. Therefore, energy density also needs to be more for the electric vehicle to offer such capability in a small package. These advancements in battery technology have been eagerly awaited in the community of EV that are willing to leverage this for developing electric vehicles.