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Tesla (TSLA) Long-Term Analysis: Retesting Key SupportHello traders! Let’s dive into a long-term analysis of Tesla (TSLA) on the monthly chart to understand where the stock might be headed next. I’ll walk you through my thought process, focusing on a comparison between the recent correction and a similar setup in 2020, while also analyzing the current correction’s alignment with the triangle formation from the 2021–2024 consolidation. My goal is to help you see the context of this setup and make an informed decision if you’re considering a trade. Step 1: Understanding the Big Picture and Historical Context Tesla has been in a strong uptrend since 2013, as evidenced by the ascending channel (highlighted in blue). This channel has guided the stock’s long-term trajectory, with the lower trendline providing support during pullbacks and the upper trendline acting as resistance during peaks. Within this uptrend, Tesla has experienced significant breakouts followed by corrections, and I’ve identified a compelling similarity between the current price action and a setup from 2020, alongside a key technical level from the recent consolidation. Step 2: Comparing the Recent Correction to 2020 In 2020, Tesla consolidated in a range between $12 and $24 (labeled "Consolidation 1" on the chart). It then broke out, rallying to a high of $64.60—a gain of about 169% from the upper end of the consolidation range. Following this breakout, Tesla experienced a sharp pullback, dropping to $23.37, which represents a 63.8% correction from the $64.60 high. After finding support at this level, Tesla resumed its upward trajectory, soaring to $166.71—a 613% increase from the pullback low. Now, let’s look at the current situation: Tesla broke out of "Consolidation 2" (around 2021–2024), rallying from $212.11 to a high of $488.54—a 130% increase. It has since corrected by 51%, dropping to the current price of $239.43. This 51% pullback is slightly less severe than the 63.8% correction in 2020, but the structure is similar: both followed significant breakouts from consolidation zones. Step 3: Current Price Action and the Triangle Retest Tesla is currently trading at $239.43, down 55% from its recent high of $488.54. If the correction deepens to around 60%, it would bring the price to approximately $195.42 (calculated as $488.54 × (1 - 0.60) = $195.42), which aligns perfectly with the upper trendline of the triangle formation from "Consolidation 2" and the "Retest support?" zone around $170–$200. This confluence suggests that the current correction could be setting the stage for a significant bounce, just as the 2020 correction did. If this $170–$200 level fails to hold, I’m watching for a deeper pullback to the "Retest support" zone around $138–$150, which aligns with the lower trendline of the ascending channel and has acted as support during previous pullbacks (e.g., in 2023). Step 4: My Prediction and Trade Idea Here’s where I put myself in your shoes: if I were trading Tesla, I’d be watching for a retest of the $170–$200 support zone as a potential buying opportunity, drawing from both the 2020 playbook and the current technical setup. Why? In 2020, Tesla found support at $23.37 after a 63.8% correction, which set the stage for a 613% rally to $166.71. Similarly, a 60% correction now would bring Tesla to the upper trendline of the Consolidation 2 triangle at $170–$200, a level that could act as a springboard for the next leg up. If Tesla holds this support, I expect a move back toward the $300–$339 range, where it faced resistance before the recent drop. A break above $339 could signal a continuation toward $488.54, retesting the recent high. Profit Targets and Stop Loss Entry: Consider buying around $170–$200 if the price retests this support and shows signs of reversal (e.g., a bullish candlestick pattern or increased volume). Profit Target 1: $300 (a conservative target based on recent resistance). Profit Target 2: $339 (a more aggressive target at the prior resistance zone). Stop Loss: Place a stop below $160 to protect against a breakdown of the $170–$200 support zone. This gives the trade a risk-reward ratio of up to 13:1 for the first target. Risks to Consider If Tesla fails to hold the $170–$200 support, we could see a deeper correction toward $138–$150, and potentially even $64–$90, another historical support level. Additionally, keep an eye on broader market conditions, as Tesla is sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates and consumer sentiment in the EV sector. While the 2020 setup and the triangle retest provide a historical and technical parallel, the current 55% drop suggests heightened volatility, so be prepared for potential whipsaws around these key levels. Conclusion Tesla’s recent 55% correction from $488.54 to $239.43 echoes the 63.8% pullback in 2020 after the breakout from "Consolidation 1." If the correction deepens to 60%, it would retest the upper trendline of the Consolidation 2 triangle at $170–$200, suggesting a potential opportunity for a high-probability trade with clear profit targets and a defined stop loss. This setup could mirror the 2020 recovery, where Tesla rallied 613% after finding support. What do you think of this setup? Let me know in the comments—I’d love to hear your thoughts!
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by tex071173952
TSLA is coming down to my buy zoneTSLA is coming down to my buy zone. I will be accumulating at 229 and below. I will start first by selling cash covered naked puts to collect credits until it drops to that zone. The goal is to get assigned with the naked put options at a cost of 229 and below to purchase TSLA shares. There is a good possibility that the next earnings of TSLA will disappoint and we might get a quick dip. In that case we may even see early 200s. I would be adding more shares there. Note that this is a weekly chart so it will take some time to play out. This is a long term hold for me. Upside Target: - Nearest upside target is 11.9% above the current price, approximately $267.86. Downside Target: - Nearest downside target is -1% below the current price, approximately $237.04. - Next downside target is approximately $195.65-196 - Support and Resistance: Monitor the support at $217.02 and resistance at $291.85 for potential breakouts or breakdowns. - Action: Given the bearish sentiment, consider waiting for a clearer bullish signal or confirmation of support holding before entering long positions. Up Volume to Down Volume Ratio 30-Days is 0.86 and 50-Days is 0.78, both below 0.8, indicating bearish sentiment in the near term so wait for it to come down to the buy zone.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by CryptoBreakers
Tsla Lesson Tesla Stock Always Pay YOURSELFI say this time and time again and this is a PRIME EXAMPLE SO FAR. 🌍Now I suggested THAT IF YOU WERE A TESLA BULL that you might want to start to PAY ATTENTION TO THE STOCK TWO WEEKS AGO. ❓️"OK SO WHAT'S THE LESSON"❓️ I emphasise ALWAYS that TIME TRUMPS PRICE... TESLA has been rather docile since its initial POP. But take a look at the HIGHER TIMEFRAME WEEKLY CHART❗️ Whats clear to see is that although the PRICE RANGE hasn't been MASSIVE there has been plenty OF ⏳️TIME TO CAPITALISE AND PAY YOURSELF. £$€¥ 💰 Two 📈HIGHER CLOSES ON THE WEEKLY and the call made whilst the weekly looked EXTREMELY BEARISH📉 EVEN RIGHT NOW we are currently UP ON THE WEEK UNTIL NOW. ℹ️ If you WERE UNABLE to STRUCTURE A TRADE TO TAKE advantage of this PRICE RANGE whilst DAY TRADING you may need to LOOK BACK and STUDY WHY NOT. ⚠️You could have paid yourself several times over already and even if TESLA was to seek lower prices from here you SHOULD HAVE BACKED SOMETHING ALREADY. ✅️AS ALWAYS TRADE YOUR PLAN & WAIT FOR YOU SIGNAL✅️
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by seekingpips
TESLA Market Outlook: Strong Reversal Expected at $200 SupportNASDAQ:TSLA is currently trading within a well-defined ascending channel , a structure that has guided price action since 2020. This channel reflects the broader bullish trend, with higher highs and higher lows consistently forming over the years. The recent sharp decline from the upper boundary of the channel is best interpreted as a temporary retracement rather than a structural shift. Such pullbacks have presented strong buying opportunities before, particularly when price approaches key support levels within the channel. The key area to watch is the $200 demand zone. This level coincides with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and has before drawn significant buying interest. Given the broader bullish structure, a reversal from this zone could reestablish the uptrend and lead to a retest of higher levels. If a bounce occurs at the $200 demand zone, the immediate target is $263, which aligns with a key resistance level where prior rejection occurred. This area represents a logical point to watch for, but a successful breakout above $263 could lead to further move toward the upper boundary of the channel. Fundamental Outlook: From a fundamental perspective, the recent decline could be due to Tesla facing a unique set of challenges stemming from Elon Musk’s increasing involvement in the U.S. government. His role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the Trump administration has triggered mixed reactions across the financial landscape. The DOGE program, aimed at cutting bureaucratic waste and enhancing operational efficiency, has led to concerns about Musk’s ability to maintain focus on Tesla. Some investors do worry that his attention, divided among a few ventures such as Tesla, SpaceX, and also the federal program, might slow the company’s innovation pipeline in addition to running efficiency. People are quite divided in their opinions. While some view Musk’s governmental involvement as a strategic advantage, believing his influence could drive favorable policy outcomes, others see it as a distraction that threatens Tesla’s future success. Additionally, if the DOGE program prompts budgetary austerity measures, there could be cuts to clean energy incentives, an outcome that would directly impact Tesla’s profits directly. Despite these concerns, the market’s long-term outlook for Tesla remains bullish. Many investors view any significant retracement as a buying opportunity, particularly near major technical support zones like $200. This area is widely recognized as a strong accumulation zone where institutional buyers are likely to step in. Furthermore, the electric vehicle market continues to expand globally, and Tesla’s brand strength and technological lead remain intact, reinforcing the long-term growth narrative. Market View & Predictions While short-term volatility is expected due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding Musk’s government involvement, the broader technical structure suggests that the uptrend is still intact. The recent pullback from the upper channel boundary appears to be a healthy correction rather than a trend reversal. If the price tests the $200 support zone, it could trigger a new wave of buying pressure, potentially driving the stock back toward the $263 resistance and beyond. As long as the price remains within the ascending channel, the bullish case for Tesla remains valid, with the potential for further upside as market confidence stabilizes.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TrendDiva
124
SeekingPips sees TSLS Tesla GAIN $60 ! What's Next?It's hard for many traders to do. 🤔 ⭐️ I still see it today with traders and investors alike. Even with some who have been at it for many years... BUT some of the BEST ENTRIES & EXITS for me have been when the OPEN CANDLE IS COMPLETELY AGAINST ME. The LAST WEEKLY TESLA chart that I shared is another prime example of this. 🟢SeekingPips🟢 shared a BULLISH BIAS when the WEEKLY CHART was looking as BEARISH as hell. 🔥 ℹ️ Now it really is not a method that works for everyone. Trading against momentum always looks SCARY BUT the SECRET is MULTI TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS and also being able to... VISUALISE DIFFERENT OBSCURE TIMEFRAMES IN REAL-TIME USING THE CURRENT OPEN CHART. ⚠️I plan on going DEEPER INTO this rabbit hole with some information and examples in the TUTORIAL SECTIONS soon.⚠️ 🚥 In it's simplest terms an example would be beaing able to note where price is on a 20 or 10 min chart just only by having a 5 minute chart in front of you. By being able to do so in REAL-TIME KEY LEVELS POP OUT that you may not have noticed from the 5 minute chart perspective only.💡💡💡 Now 🟢SeekingPips🟢 has to wait for a TRIGGER for a NEW ENTRY & SO SHOULD YOU.👍👌👍
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by seekingpips
Tesla on the Path to New Highs: Correction Before a Major high?hello guys. let's have a comprehensive analysis of Tesla __________________________ Technical Analysis Price Structure & Trend: The monthly chart indicates a long-term uptrend within a broad ascending channel. Tesla has recently faced resistance around $300 and is now in a corrective phase. The expected correction may bring the price down to around $220-$250, where it could find strong support before continuing its bullish move. or it is possible to start an upward movement and form an ATH! RSI & Divergence: The RSI indicator previously showed a fake bearish divergence, meaning the price action remains strong despite earlier weakness signals. Potential Higher Levels If Tesla successfully follows the projected movement, a break above $575 could open the door to $700-$750, based on the channel extension and historical breakout patterns. __________________________ Fundamental Analysis Earnings & Growth: Tesla's revenue growth remains strong despite market headwinds. New factory expansions (Giga Texas, Giga Berlin) and production efficiency improvements contribute to long-term profitability. The Cybertruck ramp-up and expansion in AI-driven automation could drive future stock value. EV Market Outlook: Tesla maintains a dominant position, but increasing competition from Chinese EV manufacturers and legacy automakers remains a challenge. Recent price cuts have impacted margins but helped sustain high sales volume. Macroeconomic Factors: Interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve could impact growth stocks like Tesla. If rates stabilize or decrease in 2025, Tesla could see renewed investor interest, pushing the stock to new highs. _________________________ Conclusion The mid-term bearish retracement toward $250 aligns with healthy correction levels. If Tesla holds above support and breaks $350, your $575 target is highly probable. A break above $575 could lead to $700+ in the longer term, assuming positive earnings growth and stable macroeconomic conditions.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by melikatrader94
15
Bullish TESLA prediction and bullish theoriesBullish triggers for this event to potenially happen. (I think) 1.If the macro landscape will calm down. (QE/ Lower interest rates / Tariff peace talks) 2.Musk returns to focus on TSLA. 3.Improvements or any new news regarding the optimus robots development. 4.Bitcoin breaking out (to the upside). 5.Retirement funds coming back as investors in TSLA. (Danish funds have left the stock). 6.Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. NASDAQ:TSLA
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Liljan
Tesla What Next? TSLA Buy Bargain OR Bust?✅️Now you guys know my thoughts on this and although TESLA has been beaten ⚫️black⚫️ and 🔵blue🔵 recently somehow there may be an opportunity on the horizon.🚀 ℹ️ The way I look at it is unless you think TSLA is dead forever and to be cast to the dustbin 🟢SeekingPips🟢 would be looking for a buying opportunity. 👌I don't know who coined the phrase first however it's one that 🟢SeekingPips🟢 loves and uses often it's ⭐️"BUY WHEN THERES BLOOD IN THE STREETS"⭐️ ⚠️Now don't get me wrong it doesn't mean I will be loading up gun ho RIGHT AT THIS MOMENT but it certainly DOES MEAN I'M NOT A SELLER AND STALKING BUYING OPPORTUNITIES✅️ ❓️What's you thoughts on Tesla❓️ Share your thoughts with 🟢SeekingPips🟢
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by seekingpips
TSLA has bottomed. Great Rebound spot!!!TSLA ran up from 200 to 475/shr. On its way up it left to gaps in its price action, one gap up to 245 and another one right after to 275. Gaps in price action are eventually filled 90% of the time. During TSLA's recent decline, it pushed all the way down to close the gaps it had in its chart, with the bottom being 220, where the inital gap started. Now that it has had its rundown and closed its gaps in price action, its likely this is the bottom for TSLA and it'll rebound from here.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by BBTrader29
TSLA is targeting 295 & 330 & 430Hello Traders, I'm sharing a long position on TSLA, and I'll explain my reasoning below. Entry Price: 223 Stop-Loss: 172 1st Target: 295 2nd Target: 380 Reason 1: The price has rebounded from the lower deviation of the uptrend channel (grey), not the lower deviation of the downtrend channel (blue). It is now targeting the upper deviation resistance line of the uptrend channel (grey) at 295. Reason 2: A cup & handle pattern is progressing and will likely be confirmed if the price closes a weekly bar above 253 and the target will be around 330,380 and maybe 430 as shown below NASDAQ:TSLA
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Eymen-GUVEN
TSLA around a confluence zone : Technical Analysis and ForecastTSLA Technical Analysis and Forecast Tesla (TSLA) is currently positioned at a critical confluence zone, where both horizontal and ascending trendlines intersect. Should the selling pressure persist and the stock breaks below the $325 level, there is a potential for further downside movement toward a psychological support zone at $300. It is important to note that TSLA has experienced a significant decline of approximately 33% from its peak on December 18, 2024, which could indicate potential for a rebound at these levels. Given the stock's current discount, I believe it may present a compelling opportunity for long-term investors. I intend to continue building my position through a disciplined Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy, gradually accumulating shares as the price moves lower. Should TSLA reach the $300 mark, I consider it a strong buying opportunity. As always, please trade with caution and consider your risk tolerance before making any decisions.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by ForexClinik
1
TSLA Main Trend 02 2025Logarithm. Time frame 1 month (no need for less). Chart until 2031 🟢At the moment we are running a big triangle that broke through upwards . 🔄 There is a rollback now , to retest the breakout zone. All according to technical analysis, due to the super success of the company and the liquidity of its shares. As for me, the retest should be successful, and then the trend will continue. 🔴But, they can do, like in the last cycle (I specifically highlighted this and showed %), a reset (for some grandiose news) and only then a reversal. If this happens, remember, this is a "temporary phenomenon". Do not play locally in shorts, the main trend is bullish, and it will clearly dominate in the long term. Fundamental analysis. Competition with BYD. That's why I'll write a lot of text about how this will greatly affect the price of TSLA shares in the future (real supply/demand) due to trade wars for sales markets. 1️⃣ The only competitor in the world is only the Chinese BYD . Which will become an order of magnitude stronger for TSLA in monetary terms and the popularity of more technologically advanced and affordable cars. Its main advantage, why it can give a cheaper price for a higher quality product, is complete control over the production of the most expensive unit of an electric car - batteries. From the extraction of raw materials for production to the assembly of the battery, without intermediaries. But, it is worth noting that the future super giant BYD will be denied access (as is currently partially the case) to countries where politics is subject to US influence. This is the so-called "gray zone" where a "trade war" will develop for the sale of products. The one who pays more will win, or their government (USA or China) will use greater leverage. For example, as now, in Brazil. The construction of the BYD plant is closed due to "inhumane working conditions" (and this is in a company with 500 billion in capital) in an important region (Latin America), where "the enemy does not sleep" and plans to begin construction of TSLA-Brazil in 2026. You probably understand what the matter is... The main “trade battle” will naturally take place for the European market . The European electric car industry will not be competitive with TSLA and BYD (two main flagship companies in the transition of internal combustion engines to electric transport on earth). It is worth noting that TSLA is now very popular in China. There is a large plant (Shanghai). 40,000 pre-orders for the new Model Y. The Chinese government does not interfere with this. But if unfair play continues in other markets, it is unlikely that TSLA will not be thrown out of China. Competition must be fair. Duties on cars are similar. So far, this is conditionally observed, but there are negative signs from the United States. 2️⃣ The reality of the launch of a new hydrogen engine from Toyota. There are rumors that it is being developed jointly with BMW. This is a completely new level of hydrogen engines. Instead of refueling with hydrogen, distilled water will be poured into the tank. The engine converts it into hydrogen. Serial production will allegedly begin in 2028, when the first hydrogen BMW models will roll off the assembly line. In some sources, also together with Mercedes-Benz, and even Porsche. Perhaps this is just a news teaser for a potential future buyer, to save the catastrophic decline in sales last year and this year, due to the virtual loss (due to the inability to compete) of the world's largest sales market — China. It is probably logical to assume that the release of this hydrogen engine to the masses will negatively affect TSLA shares. Provided that TSLA does not follow this fuel trend. My opinion is that they are unlikely to give mass production to something like this. It is like the mass production of electric cars in the 1990s and 2000s, in the era of the reign and monopoly of the hegemonies of oil capital, and as a consequence of internal combustion engines. 3️⃣ Massive power outages around the world. The next point is probably more of a “conspiracy theory”, but I can't help but mention the extremely unlikely scenario of impact on stock prices (a sharp drop). It is worth noting that the shares of any company that is associated with electricity are extremely “afraid” of a massive power outage and its rise in price, especially accompanied by extremely negative news. If, at least for a week, with a significant transition to electric vehicles (for example, 20-30%) in a large city there are power outages, then this can have an extremely negative impact on the shares of companies associated with the production of electric vehicles and components for them, which is logical. To scare and save and, as a result, "get your way". 4️⃣ Also, a gradual but rapid rise in the price of electricity , as a result of some events or policies, will discourage people from using electric vehicles (they will buy and drive less). This could also have a negative impact on the earnings of these companies like TSLA and BYD, and as a result on their speculative assets. PS . Of all the points, probably the most important is 1 (real competition and trade war). Then 2, after 2028. Before that, I think TSLA and other companies related to electric cars will pump up a lot.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by SpartaBTC
4