Tslalong
XPENG -METEORIC RISE, MEANS METEORIC FALL !! XPEV AND NIO ANALYSSo in the last 3 days in particular , XPEV the Chinese electric vehicle maker, has been exploding up, and there are many reasons to this which we will cover here in a moment but as an investor who is heavily invested in XPEV this causes me reasons for concern.
In a lot of the cases (excluding Tesla), when we see a meteoric rise such ass XPEV and NIO had in the last few days, this will mean a lot of investors that don’t really analyze the company properly and just jumping in the hype – but these are usually short term investors who are looking to make a hit and run. For me as a long-term investor in the EV market that means bad news.
A bit of Technical:
IMPULSE WAVE - positive sentiment causes massive volumes that are unstable and not sustainable
There is a clear method to how an impulse wave should work, and when you experience 3 motive waves as we see here that are all extended one after the other that means the corrective waves are going to be just as sharp.
We are looking at retracing wave of 618 of FIB if the stock finishes its motive wave in these manner -which means stock will fall down below the 30$ line.
NIO Wave chart:
Lets talk FUNDAMENTAL :
-XPEV delivered 3,040 in Oct over 200% from the previous year and considering the COVID-19 environment around us at the moment ,that is tremendous in my eyes, add to that the fact that 70% of those were the new Sport sedan P7 which is getting very positive reviews.
The EV market is creating new companies like mushrooms after the rain , and though competition is good , inflating a market with so much money and so many brands before it matured enough to sustain it can cause a domino effect and drop the EV market down to new lows and requires us to be patient to see our investment going profitable again.
The earnings of Xpeng are coming in Nov 12 and are expected to be positive – and here exactly is the issue – if expectations from investors on earnings are so high , even positive earnings with a slight downside can bring the stock down like a house of cards at -10% and even more.
To sum up – I am a strong believer in EV stocks whether Biden wins or not, but I would say : don’t put all your eggs in the EV market as this can get rocky!
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TSLA longsTsla has gone down since my last analysis but, the sell price was never reached and I believe a complex correction is about to finish forming contrary to my previous analysis. After this formation if we get a nice bullish candle in the $380's-$400's I believe Tsla will continue higher to the $600's. Tsla is one of the only stocks to actually rally (a historic rally at that) during lockdowns and I believe the second wave of corona (regardless if we shut down or not) won't affect the company and the stock.
$TSLA - MOMENT OF TRUTH! Bullish pattern forming$TSLA is in a moment of truth here. #TSLA formed a bullish pennant after hitting all time highs. Pennants are considered continuation patterns (in this case a continuation of the violent uptrend). The volume is also declining in typical fashion during these types of continuation patterns. The Stoch RSI is oversold which TSLA responds well to on the 1D chart.
The yellow arrows are when TSLA reported delivery numbers too. These have typically been the launch point to new breakouts. If TSLA can break out of the pennant, the expected mid term move is towards $616 where the 1.272 Fib extension is. This would also coincide with its inclusion in the S&P 500 at the end of the year or the beginning of 2021.
Bullish pennants aren't a guaranteed bullish continuation though. They break to the upside a little more than half the time so prudent traders will want to watch for the breakout first.
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TSLA - 12.06% Potential Profit - Bullish PennantShort-term Bullish Pennant following a 1-month correction interrupting a massive bull run.
Multiple new support confirmation in the past few days.
I am being very selective lately and I only trade when I see very limited risk, with potentially great rewards. This is why I like this setup. There is no clear technical target, this is why I will adjust stop-losses daily (and intraday) based on how the market behaves.
- Target Entry $442.04
- Target Stop Loss $436.02
- Target Exit $495.31
About me
- P/L September +49.18% | August: +232.32% | No Trades without Analysis
- Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital. This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss
Tesla to retest $500 mark.Tesla is in ascending triangle which has bias to break to the upside.
Good fundamentals and strong demand.
RSI is also in ascending triangle .
I expect the price to either retest the uptrend line or break the $460 mark and go for $500.
How to play this?
So either buy the break of $460 or set a long position at $415 for improved reward.
Good luck!
Tibor
TSLA anticipated move to $540 then $600? Medium termTSLA has been the center of attention for the bulls and volatility for quite some time and it is forming a very interesting pattern that I cannot ignore.
There are die hard TSLA fans there that believe in the company, there no real reason not to, and there are swing traders that love swinging it because it moves. It is due for a volatile move once again, should we break resistance we'll see a pop that could take up through the high once again.
The technicals are building up for it, higher lows, EV potentially, a strong bull market its all coming together, just volume needs to come on board to the upside.
We need to see a drastic increase in volume as we break the $460 threshold for the next leg higher. With the S&P 500 potentially hitting 3,600 and the Nasdaq futures led by tech about to make a new high. It just seems likely that TSLA is about to make a leg up pop that we've been waiting for.
The targets to the upside are based on Fib extension lines and the volatility that TSLA is associated with could bring us there no problem. The prior TSLA idea we had, the market was forming a symmetrical triangle that could have sprung either way, the more recent price action is expecting a pop higher!
this idea is for educational purposes only, any trade or investment is taken and the traders personal risk.